NVDA: FREMA Linear Extensions - Horizontal VS DirectionalFREMA bands offer a dynamic edge over traditional ATR-based volatility bands by adapting to real buying and selling pressure (bullish and bearish part of candles) rather than just price movement. Unlike ATR bands, which expand symmetrically based on historical volatility, FREMA bands widen asymmetrically — expanding more on the upside during strong buying pressure and on the downside when selling dominates. This makes them highly effective for identifying momentum early, spotting true breakouts, and distinguishing strong trends from choppy markets. By responding directly to market psychology, they provide superior trade entries and exits, minimizing noise in ranging conditions while highlighting areas of genuine demand and supply shifts. For traders seeking a more responsive, trend-sensitive tool, FREMA bands deliver a clearer picture of market dynamics compared to conventional volatility indicators.
RESEARCH
Testing how price behaves within 2 types of linear extensions:
Horizontal
While giving an impression of being static, they're actually based on FREMA which is dynamic.
Use Horizontal Levels when expecting price to respect historical support/resistance, especially in sideways or mean-reverting markets.
Directional
Gives an immediate clue of being adaptable to the general angle of trend.
Use Linear Extensions when trading with momentum or trend continuation, as they adapt to market directionality.
Will price respect the static balance of past support and resistance, or will momentum dictate its own path along the trajectory of directional expansion? By tracking price interactions with both projections, we’ll uncover which model best maps the market’s intentions, offering valuable insights for future setups.
Stay tuned as we register these behaviors in real-time because once the market chooses its guide, the next move could be crystal clear.
Moving Averages
SOL Biggest Bargain Buy Opp at 50WMAI wrote my thesis on Solana in July 2023 when it was at $25 and memecoins weren't even a thought.
No one even knew what BONK was, but the developer community was thriving, and all the best dApps were being built there.
Now that people are tired of rinsing themselves clean at the casino, it's funny to see them call CRYPTOCAP:SOL ded ~$180💀
SOL is up 625% since I first wrote about it 😂
The blockchain has tremendously improved in every metric, with a plethora of new advancements on the near horizon, including Firedancer 🔥
Buying SOL here at the 50WMA is an absolute gift.
Target is still, and always will be $700-850 within the next 9 months.
BNX Breakdown: The Next Trade SetupBNX has recently been testing a key resistance zone around the $1 level. After hitting the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $1.10, the market shifted into a downtrend. Let's analyse where our next trade opportunity might arise.
Market Structure & Confluence Zones
$1 to $1.1: BNX encountered robust resistance between $1 and $1.1, where the 0.618 Fib retracement aligns perfectly with the fib speed fan (0.618-0.65). Additionally, the anchored VWAP taken from the high at $1.1 aligns beautifully with the $1 mark, adding another robust layer of resistance. This convergence reinforces the strength of this zone and signals potential continuation of the downtrend.
Recent price action shows that BNX has repeatedly bounced off the 0.618/0.666 levels during small downward corrections.
Moving Averages on the 1-Hour Chart: The 21 EMA/SMA on the 1-hour timeframe is clustering between $0.97 and $1, providing additional confirmation of the resistance and offering an ideal entry region for short trades.
Primary Short Trade Setup
Given the multiple confluences around the resistance zone, our main focus is a short trade with a well-defined laddering strategy:
Entry Strategy (Laddering): Initiate short positions with staggered entries between $0.97 and $1.019. This dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach allows for flexibility and optimises your entry as price tests the resistance zone.
Stop Loss (SL): Place your stop loss around $1.0375, just above the Point of Control (POC) or the previous high in this range to effectively manage risk.
Target: Aim for a profit target at $0.8. This target is supported by multiple technical indicators.
Risk/Reward Ratio: With these levels, you are looking at an approximate risk/reward ratio of 4:1 or better, depending on your specific DCA weighting.
Confirmation: As always, await confirmation through order flow analysis and the appearance of rejection candles at key levels before entering the trade.
USD/CAD Slips—Fading Trade Fears, CPI in FocusUSD/CAD is trading heavy ahead of Canada’s inflation report, weighed down by softer US economic data and fading sticker shock from US trade policy headlines. With Canadian data impressing at rates not seen since mid-2024 and January’s steep reversal from 22-year highs increasingly resembling a cyclical top, the key question now is whether this marks the start of a more significant unwind of earlier USD/CAD gains.
The price broke through multiple support levels last week after failing above the 50-day moving average, taking out 1.4270 and 1.4195 before retesting the latter from below over the past two sessions. Momentum indicators like RSI (14) and MACD continue to generate bearish signals, reinforcing the near-term bias being lower.
Beyond 1.4195, downside levels include 1.4090, the December double bottom at 1.3932, and the 200-day moving average. On the upside, 1.4270 has acted as a cap for much of the past fortnight, alongside minor resistance at 1.4372. That zone could prove tough to crack this week without a major escalation in US trade tensions or an ice-cold Canadian inflation print.
On Tuesday’s CPI report, the data will be skewed by a temporary GST holiday, potentially distorting the signal. That raises doubts about whether it will have enough weight to disrupt the prevailing USD/CAD trend.
Good luck!
DS
Breaking news affects the trend of gold.Peace talks:
1. Russian media: Russian and US officials will hold a meeting on Ukraine in Saudi Arabia on the 18th.
2. European leaders: Russia-Ukraine conflict negotiations without European participation are "unacceptable".
3. Trump: A meeting with Putin is expected to take place soon; Putin hopes to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict as soon as possible.
4. US Special Envoy for Ukraine: Russia-Ukraine conflict negotiations may focus on Russia's territorial concessions and Russia's oil revenues. It is too early to say when Trump's Ukraine plan will be ready. Europe will not participate in the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks.
Under the influence of this news, the price of gold rose rapidly after the market opened, then fell rapidly to release the short pressure, and then rose sharply again to the current price of 2900.
Under the influence of the dominant news, the price of gold abandoned the original technical trend, and was influenced and guided by the news, and walked out of the independent market outside the technical aspect.
The entire short pressure has been released, and the price of gold today is still mainly buying low. The increase in the Asian market is almost the same, and now it is waiting for the longs in the London and New York markets to be released. The target that the price of gold is expected to reach today is about 2910-2920. OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Trading:
BUY 1: 2879-2885
BUY 2: 2893-2896
TP: 2910-2920
SL: 2870
$BTC 3 Black Crows Falls Below WSMA9Another tough week for CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Closed the Week below the SMA9
With its 3rd consecutive bearish candle,
also known as 3 Black Crows.
This could mean that we have another bloody week ahead.
$94-91k is still very much in play.
Worth noting that Alts have been outperforming BTC this week, which is reflected in TOTAL and BTC.D
US100 LongOf course no financial advice!!!!
It looks like that there is lots of liquidity in the market but the buying pressure is stronger than the selling pressure. We are in an uptrend so I guess the market wants to grab/sweep the Liquidity Levels and then continue flying up to the moon to the ATH and also grab there some liquidity.
XAUUSD BUYS PROJECTION Hey Everyone here’s my weekly analysis for gold very bullish, tho last week we took a buy but SL got hit so this week I’m interested in this support zone and if we get a good rejection of this 50EMA and some bullish engulfing candle I will execute for buys to a new ATH so let’s see how the week goes and let’s have a win week….
50 SMA Rising- Positional TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Its 50 SMA Rising Strategy. Suitable for Positional Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 50 days SMA if price close below 50 SMA then Exit or be in the trade some time trade can go for several months.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think
Lockheed Martin NYSE:LMT
Lockheed Martin has had multiple large consolidations it has bounced back from. This consolidation seems to be getting a bit overplayed here as they continue to keep getting more contracts. The uncertain news with the defense spending is not all that bad and actually if the company continues to increase its net margin each quarter/year, the future looks good for Lockheed Martin. Making advanced technology while improving net income and net margin can prove to make Lockheed Martin a consistent winner of defense contracts. If budget cuts to defense spending do happen, it is not wise to assume Lockheed Martin is going to be negatively impacted as with talented engineers there is always room for innovation to make new high net income and net margins.
As for the Chart, It has had a fantastic run in 2024 and dollar cost averaging when a stock has the 50 day moving average significantly below its 100 day moving average and 200 day moving average is usually a good thing to do.
Consolidation period. There is a Fib level below it could bounce off of. Good thing to look for is when the stock goes above its 50 day moving average. The 100 day may cross below 200 day moving average, so that is something to watch for as well. Not a bad idea adding here and dollar cost averaging. Good company and I like the future of this stock on a longer timeframe.
BATMAN Formation Gold has appread to be down to 2788 USDThis chart provides a 4-hour timeframe analysis of the Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) pair, indicating several technical aspects and current market conditions.
Price Action and Trend Analysis:
Current Trend: The chart shows a recent bearish movement as indicated by the sharp red candle that breaks below the previous consolidation area and moving average lines. This could suggest a potential reversal or pullback in an otherwise bullish context.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance is potentially around $2,907 and $2,900, highlighted by the MA Ribbon lines.
Immediate support is near the $2,850 mark, as shown by the lower green zones and moving averages.
Technical Indicators:
Moving Average (MA) Ribbon:
The price has fallen below the MA Ribbon, suggesting a potential shift in momentum from bullish to bearish in the short term. Watch for these averages as dynamic resistance levels on potential pullbacks.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD line is below the signal line and moving into negative territory, indicating increased bearish momentum. The expanding histogram in the negative region further supports this view.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is near 41, which is below the midpoint of 50, suggesting bearish momentum. It is not yet in the oversold region (below 30), which indicates that there may still be room for further downside.
Volume:
There appears to be a notable volume spike associated with the recent price drop, which can be seen as validating the bearish move.
Market Sentiment and Potential Strategy:
Short-Term Bearish Signal: The break below key moving averages and the recent bearish candle supported by increased volume suggest that bears are currently in control. Traders might consider looking for short opportunities on pullbacks to resistance levels.
Watch for Potential Reversal: Keep an eye on the RSI and MACD for any signs of divergence or flattening that may suggest weakening bearish momentum. If the price stabilizes or rebounds at the $2,850 support, it could indicate a possible reversal or retracement back towards the moving averages.
Risk Management:
Ensure proper risk management strategies are in place, considering stop-loss orders above the recent swing high or around the MA Ribbon resistance levels. Adjust positions according to real-time market feedback and changes in technical indicators.
$INDEX:BTCUSD Death Cross Potential - 200 EMA test imminent INDEX:BTCUSD
BTC has been stagnant since the initial excitement over the political landscape got brought back to earth through the talk of steep tariffs by the US on imports from its main suppliers and trading partners. The DEEPSEEK bomb went off around the same time sending the big buyers to put a pause on accumulating crypto and we have seen the this translate into a very weary market.
And Now because of investor insecurity smart money is waiting for the price to fall to take advantage of the fear that we are witnessing the end of the cycle and 20k btc is around the corner. No Such luck, however we do get a nice DEATH CROSS on the daily looking like weekend price movement is bound to see selling pressure that will drive the 20 EMA below the 50 EMA which will see bearish results in price and pressure to trend downwards
Anyone reading my Posts knows that I've been eyeing the 200 EMA on the daily as a zone that we are bound to visit before the market can continue to increase and set higher highs. I've previously given my reasons why in previous posts ie. convergence, fvg, support. I believe this could be the pressure that will drive is into those mid to low 80k areas that seemed so far away a few weeks ago, low 70's are also in play if we can't hold the 200 EMA or the psychological 80k support . I believe that enough buyers are waiting down there for those fire sale prices that once we do hit the 200 EMA it will be paramount to assess market conditions before going full in on the bounce likely to take place around 84,500k the 200 EMA's relative area that ties into the liquidity in the FVG.
OM's Meteoric Rise: Time to Buy the Dip or Short the Top?OM has been on an astronomical journey, soaring from $0.0173 on 12 October 2023 to an all-time high of $6.485 on 7 February 2025 – a jaw-dropping +37,494% increase in just 484 days. Currently ranked 26 with a market cap of $5.5B, OM’s meteoric rise has everyone asking: Is OM topping out, or is there still more upside? Could a significant correction be on the horizon? Let’s dive into the technicals and explore our trade setups with high conviction, backed by a wealth of confluence.
Market Structure & Historical Context
Between mid-November 2024 and the end of January 2025, OM traded within a 70-day range, oscillating between $4.4 and $3.3. The Point of Control (POC) for this range is around $3.87, marking a critical level where price action has repeatedly converged. This trading range provides the backdrop for our analysis, highlighting both key support and potential resistance zones that may dictate OM's next move.
Key Support Zones & Confluence
A multitude of technical indicators converge around the $3.87 level, making it a crucial support area:
1.) Fibonacci Retracement Confluence:
Taking the Fibonacci retracement from the low at $3.173 (25 January 2025) to the recent high, the 0.786 retracement level lands at $3.8818—just a hair above our POC.
2.) Channel Median Line:
The median line drawn through the highs and lows of the 70-day trading range reinforces the significance of this area.
3.) Moving Averages:
The weekly 21 EMA/SMA currently sits between $3.63 and $3.31, and as they trend higher, we can expect them to approach $3.9 in the coming week, offering additional support.
4.) Trend Indicator (Beta):
On the 4-hour timeframe, my new upcoming Trend Indicator highlights bullish momentum edging around $3.75, further consolidating support.
5.) Fibonacci Extension:
The 1.271 Fibonacci extension from the previous low at $4.4 places a key level at $3.8329, adding yet another layer of confluence.
Collectively, these factors create a robust support zone, suggesting that any retracement towards this level might serve as an attractive entry point for long positions.
Resistance Levels & Trade Setups
Resistance Analysis
OM has repeatedly faced strong resistance near the $6 mark:
Rejection Patterns:
The chart reveals multiple rejections around $6, with a notable Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) at $6.295 that confirmed bearish pressure.
Short Trade Opportunity:
Previously, the rejection at $6.295 offered a low-risk short trade: risking about 3% for a potential gain of 17% to the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618 (approximately $5.1965), which was nearly reached.
Potential Trade Setups
Short Trade Setup
With OM encountering strong resistance around $6 and historical rejections at key levels, a breakdown could spark further downward movement.
Entry & Stop Loss:
Entry: Initiate a short position if price fails to break decisively above $6.
Stop Loss: Set a 5% stop loss above the previous SFP.
Targets & Risk/Reward:
Targets: Consider targets at $4.7 (yielding approximately +22%) or $4.0 (around +34%).
Risk/Reward: This setup offers an impressive risk/reward ratio of 4:1 to 6:1.
Long Trade Setup
The multiple layers of support around $3.87 present an attractive opportunity for long entries should the price retrace, despite the overall bullish structure. Historically, OM has bounced off its 21 daily EMA/SMA, as marked by previous green box zones on the chart.
Entry Strategy & Laddering:
Entry: Look for long entries if price pulls back to the support zone.
Laddered Positions: Consider scaling in with positions between $4 and $3.75. This dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach will help optimise your entry over the pullback.
Stop Loss & Target:
Stop Loss (SL): Set your stop loss below $3.58 to account for volatility while protecting against a breakdown.
Take Profit: Target the $4.5 level as your primary take profit.
Risk/Reward:
With laddered entries between $4 and $3.75, this setup provides an approximate risk/reward ratio of 2:1, though the exact ratio will depend on your specific DCA entry points.
Final Thoughts
Only execute shorts with clear confirmation from order flow analysis.
Conversely, a pullback towards the support zone presents an appealing long opportunity for those confident in OM’s enduring momentum.
As always, it’s essential to monitor price action closely and adjust your strategy as new data unfolds.
Okay. Wrapping up this analysis. Wishing you all profitable and successful trades! =)
Redfin | RDFN | Long at $8.64Redfin $NASDAQ:RDFN. Yes, housing is starting to finally slide as mortgage rates remain high, housing inventory increases, and pending sales drop. I can see an argument to wait to enter NASDAQ:RDFN and I can't truly argue against it for 2025 (a dip is possible into the $4's if things really take a bad turn). But what I like about Redfin is they do not invest in homes where there is substantial risk during a housing pause or downturn. They purely make money through real estate services (brokerage and marketing), subscription services for listings, mortgage services (fees and interest), and other services.
When mortgage rates drop, the housing market will shift rapidly - which is honestly going to be a big problem in the long-term as the desperate buyer grabs a 4-5% mortgage (vs the current 6.5%-7%) for the "deal" on a home they can't truly afford...
During this eventual shift, Redfin and Zillow NASDAQ:Z will do well. It's just a matter of
"when" will it occur. At $8.64, NASDAQ:RDFN is in a personal buy zone. If the price dips further after earnings, I will be accumulating more shares (unless the company is crumbling).
Targets into 2027:
$11.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
GoodRX | GDRX | Long at $5.00GoodRX NASDAQ:GDRX . Going long at $5.00.
Pros:
Revenue is growing and is expected to reach almost $1 billion by 2027
Debt-to-equity = 0.71x (low)
Monthly active users continue to increase (+7% during Q3 of 2024)
From a technical analysis perspective, the downward trend is starting to reverse, and the price has connected with my historical simple moving average (likely leading to a price increase)
Cons:
Not yet profitable
A lot of market competition
Insiders exercising of options outweighs awarding of options
No dividend
Targets:
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
Substantially higher if partnerships emerge and profitability begins
Papa Johns Pizza | PZZA | Long at $37.00Warren Buffett goes for Dominos ( NASDAQ:DPZ ), but I'm here for Pappa Johns $NASDAQ:PZZA.
Pros:
Earnings are forecast to grow 10.92% per year
Revenue grew from $1.8 billion in 2020 to $2.1 billion through Q3 of 2024 - expected to continue to rise through 2027
Free cash flow expected to improve
5.1% dividend
A lot of options awarded to insiders in 2024 and limited selling
Technological advancements in AI/ordering/processing may reduce long-term costs
Technical analysis shows stock may be coming out of a downtrend in low $30's (but exercise caution - very early)
Cons:
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow
Dividend is not well covered by free cash flows
May have some near-term struggles due to weakening economy
Technical analysis shows possible drop to the $20's if bad earnings/outlook are revealed (another personal buying opportunity)
While there may be some near-term economic headwinds, I like the stock and the future of companies like NASDAQ:DPZ and NASDAQ:PZZA as AI is integrated to reduce costs. Thus, at $37.00, NASDAQ:PZZA is in a personal buy zone.
Targets
$45.00
$50.00
$60.00
$100.00+ (very long-term outlook to close the existing price gaps on the daily chart)
Potential Bear Flag in Energy ETFThe SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF has wavered for almost a year, and some traders may expect a push to the downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since mid-November. December also saw a lower low versus September. That may reflect a bearish longer-term trend.
Next, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “death cross” below the 200-day SMA in late 2024. Those two SMAs, plus the 100-day SMA, are close to each other on the chart. Could that long neutral period create potential for prices to start moving?
Third, MACD is falling and the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA. Those patterns may reflect bearishness in the short term.
Finally, the recent series of higher lows may be viewed as a bearish flag. If it resolves to the downside, December’s 52-week low of $82.75 could be viewed as the next logical support.
Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above:
SPDR Select Sector Energy ETF (XLE)
1-year: +5.07%
5-years: +64%
10-year: +18.82%
(As of January 31, 2025)
Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs") are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.
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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Pulls Back After RallyVertex Pharmaceuticals ended January with a big rally. Now, after a pullback, some traders may see an opportunity.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the price gap on January 31 after the FDA approved its Journavx painkiller. (It’s the first of its kind to treat pain in a unique way without addiction risks.) The stock has retraced the surge, which may appeal to dip buyers.
Second is the October 7 close of $448.60. VRTX held that level in late November and again on December 18 before gapping down. The stock is now trying to stabilize in the same location, suggesting support may remain in effect.
Next, the MACD surge in January could reflect bullish short-term momentum. Prices are also trying to hold the rising 21-day exponential moving average.
Finally, VRTX is near its 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages. That may create potential for the longer-term trend to accelerate if the short-term strength continues.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
$SPY February 13, 2025AMEX:SPY February 13, 2025
Yesterday also gap analysis. But took support at daily averages 598 levels as mentioned in the previous day analysis.
For the rise 598.52 to 604.55 holding 602 levels is important today.
At the moment AMEX:SPY weak below 600 levels for a possible target 597.5 598 levels for the day.