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Moving Averages

Short Semiconductors on Falling DemandThe semiconductor ETF NASDAQ:SMH is currently trading at an all time high because of the belief that there will be increased demand for semiconductors arising from the applications of generative AI. However, on a fundamental level, semiconductor revenue has been dropping for the past five consecutive quarters ( Omdia ). In fact, in the first quarter of 2023 alone, semiconductor revenue dropped 9% from the previous quarter ( Omdia ). As I see it right now, here are some positive points for semiconductor companies: Generative AI has increased demand for semiconductors Cryptocurrency prices are high, increasing demand for semiconductors and some negative points for semiconductor companies: Overextended from Moving Average 300 Generally declining demand Decreased consumer demand for gaming PCs as Economy heads into recession (since gaming PCs are a luxury good) US Semiconductor Equipment is being used in China, increasing supply and therefore decreasing price for semiconductors. Burry entered a large put position on SOXL, and NVDA put premium is currently extremely high Overall, I am bearish on semiconductors because I think the AI argument is priced in excessively considering the previously dropping demand, and have purchased puts to profit off a potential fall in the value of semiconductor companies.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by spiritualhealer117
Drummond Geometry: Envelopes and TerminationsIn Drummond Geometry, envelopes serve as dynamic zones of expected price action, and terminations mark key points where price either respects or challenges these levels. Let’s explore these concepts based on the chart provided and the behavior of Tesla stock. 1. Envelopes and Their Role - Definition : Envelopes represent boundaries derived from price movement, predicting areas of support and resistance. The chart displays various DG lines and envelopes: - The inner bands (the blue filled area limited by red lines) reflect the Envelope Top and Bottom - The outer envelope also known as Area 1 for the below part and Area 6 for the above part (dark green zone) marks the exhaustion zone , where price typically meets resistance or support and reverses. - Behavior on the Chart : Notice how Tesla’s price action interacts with the envelopes: - After a significant upward movement in early November, prices exceeded the upper exhaustion zone . - Rather than reversing, the exhaustion zone acted as support , allowing price to consolidate and enabling the envelopes and PLdot to "catch up" to the higher price levels. This might seem unlogical, it appears however more often than not. The PLdot needs to catch up with the price action! 2. Terminations and Congestion - Congestion Terminations (Blue dots/circles): These occur where price closes near the DG line, indicating indecision or a pause in trend direction. In the chart: - Blue terminations cluster around October 30 - November 6, showing congestion after which a sharp move up follows. This congestion allowed the price action to stabilize before resuming the trend. - Breakout and Continuation : When prices break above or below the envelope, terminations play a critical role: - On November 11, the price could not break the exhaust zone for the Nov. 12, thus typically signaling exhaustion. The high of that day was rejected by the lower exhaust boundary of Nov. 12. Remember, you know the exhaust zone for the upcoming day with DG as these are always available for the bar ahead - What followed was a "cycle". In DG this is explained as a market movement from one envelope to the opposite one. Price eventually went to the daily exhaust zone below, which was also the proxiity of the MTF live weekly ETOP finding support and rotating again higher. 3. Interaction of DG Lines (5-2 and 5-9) The chart includes: - 5-2 Lines (Yellow Circles and Crosses): These lines reflect nearer-term support and resistance. - 5-9 Lines (Red Circles and Crosses): These represent stronger levels of potential support and resistance. --- 4. Exhaustion Zone Acting as Support The most notable observation from the chart is how the exhaustion zone flips its typical behavior: - Expected Behavior : Normally, when prices move into the exhaustion zone (upper envelope), resistance is expected, leading to a pullback. - What Happened : In this case: - The exhaustion zone acted as support . - The price stabilized above this level, allowing the PLdot and envelopes to "catch up." - This "catch-up" mechanism reflects a realignment between market momentum and the statistical framework of the DG lines. Takeaway for Traders This chart demonstrates that while envelopes and terminations provide reliable zones for potential price reactions: 1. Context is Key: The exhaustion zone’s behavior can adapt, switching roles between resistance and support depending on market conditions. 2. Congestion Helps Trends : Congestion terminations (blue dots) can mark pauses that prepare for further trend continuation. 3. Flexibility of DG Lines : The interaction of 5-2 and 5-9 levels offers layered insight into market structure, helping traders refine entries and exits. By combining envelope behavior, termination probabilities, and DG line interactions, traders can better anticipate price movements and manage risk effectively.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by JordanMT
Healthcare Sector (XLV) Long-Term BuyI believe healthcare will be the next rotation coming out of this tech bull run. Using the Trade Jeanie (Jeanius Screener/Indicator), I was able to see the current technical buy signals happening on AMEX:XLV : Took out an untested low Price touching 21EMA while the 9EMA > 21EMA Retested a level that was broken to create a break of structure (BOS & Retest) The Jeanius Indicator shows green 'Combo' labels every time this same combination of signals happened
AMEX:XLVLong
by jeanius_tech
2
$SPY December 2, 2024AMEX:SPY December 2, 2024 15 Minutes. AMEX:SPY is tired. 603 targets achieved. But no strength. The move from low 595.20 to 603.35 is not smooth. Soe the last rise fro, 587.43 to 603.35 $ SPY need to hold 598 levels being 38.2% retracement. For the last rise 597.28 to603.35 599 must hold. I expect AMEX:SPY to be 598.5 to 603 levels today and tomorrow so the moving averages can up as 200 moving average is around 596 levels. Holding 598-599 my first target is 605 levels.
AMEX:SPY
by RiderTrader
1
50 SMA Rising- Positional TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser. This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser. Its 50 SMA Rising Strategy. Suitable for Positional Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 50 days SMA if price close below 50 SMA then Exit or be in the trade some time trade can go for several months. Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market. Trade What you see not what you Think
NSE:OLIL
by AnsariTV
Crude Oil 4 hour chart with Buy and Sell levelsCrude Oil weekly chart with Buy and Sell levels. Oil this week closed at support level MACD trading bearish wait for crossover to confirm bearish on the weekly chart. On the downside 66.00 break confirms bearish movement on the upside 72.5 would confirm that Oil is making a break to the upside . Considering this I would enter a buy at 68.04 expecting 68.07 and upwards. On the downside ill look for an entry at 67.48 expecting 67.00 and 66.57 if broken then further downside is very possible As always trade safe use a stop loss and don't overleverage. Ill update these charts as the week progresses until then check out my other charts for Gold ,EURUSD and GBPUSD
TVC:USOIL
by F0rexBorex
1
Ethereum $ETH/USDT - 200D SMA Bull Regime DetectionThis indicator helps traders identify market regimes using the powerful combination of 50 and 200 SMAs. It provides clear visual signals and detailed metrics for trend-following strategies. Key Features: - Dual SMA System (50/200) for regime identification - Colour-coded candles for easy trend visualisation - Metrics dashboard Core Signals: - Bullish Regime: Price > 200 SMA - Bearish Regime: Price < 200 SMA - Additional confirmation: 50 SMA Cross-over or Cross-under (golden cross or death cross)
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by igreycrypto
Bitcoin's historical 868 day low to high cycleIt appears that every bull market lasts 868 days. August 2015 to Dec 2017 - Bitcoin did a 78x growing from $194 to $19.1k Dec 2018 to November 2021 - Bitcoin did a 20x growing from $3.1k to $69k November 2022 to present - Bitcoin has grown from $15k to $99k with more expected. Following this 868 day pattern the bull market is expected to end in late March 2025 roughly 110 days away. The question is, does BlackRock change things? Does America's promise to buy 250,000 BTC a year for 5 years change things? The big money is coming.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoMitchX
CAD/JPY Short Setup – Bearish Continuation ExpectedI’m observing a potential bearish continuation on CAD/JPY. The pair has recently broken key support levels and is trading below the 200 MA on the 4H chart, signaling strong downward momentum. Key Analysis Resistance Levels: The price is expected to retest the zone around 108-108.15, which could act as a strong resistance. If the price reject that level, then I will ENTER SHORT. Failing this, I am not entering. Support Levels: The first target is near 105.8–106.0. If broken, the price may head toward the 104.0–105.0 range. Confluence Factors: Weakness in CAD due to declining oil prices and risk-off sentiment could drive this move. JPY strength may increase as a safe-haven currency amid market uncertainty. Risk Management: Stop-Loss: Above the 108.5 resistance zone. Take-Profit: Incremental levels around 106.0 and 104.5.
Short
by zito82
CAD/JPY Short Setup – Bearish Continuation ExpectedI’m observing a potential bearish continuation on CAD/JPY. The pair has recently broken key support levels and is trading below the 200 MA on the 4H chart, signaling strong downward momentum. Key Analysis Resistance Levels: The price is expected to retest the zone around 108-108.15, which could act as a strong resistance. If the price reject that level, then I will ENTER SHORT. Failing this, I am not entering. Support Levels: The first target is near 105.8–106.0. If broken, the price may head toward the 104.0–105.0 range. Confluence Factors: Weakness in CAD due to declining oil prices and risk-off sentiment could drive this move. JPY strength may increase as a safe-haven currency amid market uncertainty. Risk Management: Stop-Loss: Above the 108.5 resistance zone. Take-Profit: Incremental levels around 106.0 and 104.5.
Short
by zito82
Wedge Pattern on Bitcoin's Chart - Investors Take RisksHello, The optimistic break out of a possible bullish wedge pattern suggests potential price action of reclaiming the $97.3k price level. The white trendlines mark the borders of a falling wedge pattern, which is usually a bullish pattern. The upward break out from the pattern further indicates a bullish scenario. The bullish chart pattern aligns with technicals like MACD, signaling a weakening bearish momentum. Per the wedge patterns' dimensions, if the price returns to the wedge and hits stop loss levels like $96.5k, the bullish scenario can be considered invalid. Otherwise, a minor pullback is possible to the upper white trendline until BTC picks up bullish momentum and volume. The volume profile shows relatively minimal interest at the current levels. So, I expect BTC to move out from these levels soon. Achieving the target of $97.3k would not only fulfill the bullish potential according to the dimensions of the wedge pattern but also bring the price to levels where investors are interested in trading. Sentiment: As of November 2024, the market sentiment for Bitcoin is extremely bullish. This is reflected in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which currently sits at 88, indicating extreme greed. This high level of optimism suggests that investors are highly confident in Bitcoin's future and are willing to take on more risk in anticipation of further price increases. Global economics: The ongoing strategic competition between the US and China continues to shape the global economic and political landscape, impacting trade, technology, and security. Competitors may recognize the potential to exploit Bitcoin, which will help the price to reach higher levels. Risk management: I encourage you to configure your stop loss and diversify your investments to reduce risk. Regards, Ely
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Elysian_Mind
XAUUSD Forecast Dec 2024Hi all Traders! In the XAUUSD H4 chart, it is observed that after breaking the support zone, the price is currently in a correction phase and pulling back towards low level fibonacci or continue to above. Considering the price structure and hit fibo 50%, it is expected that after reaching the identified resistance area, the price will resume its downward movement and target lower levels or after rejection in fibo 61.8% will be uptrend and then continue to downtrend. Key Points: Forecast 1 : Sell Entry 1 : Consider entering a Short Limit position around Fibs 50% with price of 2663.27, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 2560.75 Sell Entry 2 : Consider entering a Short Limit position around Fibs -0.382% with price of 2765.78, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 2516.35 Buy Entry : Consider entering a Long Limit position around Fibs 1.382% with price of 2560.75, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 2765.78 Forecast 2 : Sell Entry 1 : Consider entering a Short Limit position around Fibs -0.382% with price of 2765.78, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 2516.35 Buy Entry : Consider entering a Long Limit position around Fibs 61.8% with price of 2649.55, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 2765.78 Forecast 3 : Sell Entry : Consider entering a Short Limit position around Fibs 50% with price of 2663.27, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 2516.35 like and share your thoughts in the comments thank you
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by traderkarbitan
SCI NSE Bearish channel BO WTF NEW Stock Analysis Trade Plan: SCI Entry: 50% of the total quantity at 243 DTF Close, with an additional 50% added at 274 DTF Close Price. Stop Loss: 203 Target 1: 345 Target 2: NA Hold for a period of 11 months to 1 year or until the target 1 is reached. Chart Pattern: The stock experienced a Pullback period of 5Months after touching an all-time high (ATH) of 383 . Technical Indicators: The stock’s daily timeframe (DTF) shows that the price is currently trading above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 20-day EMA below the 50EMA. The EMAs are in Transitional sequence of alignment. The Stock is at good price point where the 50EMA and 200EMA are very close and the 20EMA has curved upwards.A potential bullish trend in formation on the DTF/WTF timeframe. Volume Analysis: There has been a surge up of volumes on the buy side for a Month now. Take entry as recommended in Trade Plan. Prioritize Watch List: Keep this stock in your watch list for further analysis and potential trading opportunities. Disclaimer: This information is solely for educational and reference purposes. Trading inherently carries risks, and it’s crucial to exercise caution and conduct comprehensive research before making any investment decisions. Make sure you have a well-defined risk appetite, proper position sizing, and a stop-loss order based on your risk tolerance. Review your Portfolio periodically. Exit positions when the price closes 7-8% below your entry point or Earlier basis your Risk profile. Consider re-entering the market when the trend reverses.Before engaging in any trading activities, it is paramount to thoroughly comprehend these technical analysis concepts and conduct extensive research on the stocks you are interested in. Furthermore, consulting a certified financial advisor can offer valuable insights and guidance before making investment decisions. Technical Analysis Concepts: Multiple Time Frame Analysis (MTFA): Daily Time Frame (DTF): Used for short-term analysis and identifying trends. Weekly Time Frame (WTF): Provides a broader perspective and helps in trend confirmation. Monthly Time Frame (MTF): Ideal for long-term analysis and trend analysis. All-Time High (ATH): The highest price reached on a specific chart. Lifetime High (LTH): The highest price reached over the entire chart’s history. Stop Loss (SL): A predetermined price level at which an investment is automatically exited to limit potential losses. Swing Trade: A trading strategy that involves holding positions for a significant period, typically few weeks to months. Positional Trade: A trading strategy that aims to capitalize on long-term trends and position oneself accordingly. CHART PATTERNS Rounding Bottom Cup/Handle (RBC&H): A pattern that signals a potential reversal from a downtrend. Breakout (BO): A price move closure above a resistance or below a support level. Flag & Pole BO: (F&P BO) Bullish Continuation Pattern Consolidation : Price Typically Swings between a Range for a period of Time Long or Short basis the MTFA. Breaking out of this range UPWARDS is an opportunity to BUY and DOWNWARDS is SELL opportunity. Moving Averages: Exponential Moving Average (EMA): A popular moving average that places more weight on recent price data. Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA): A moving average that gives more weight to high-volume stocks. Fibonacci Retracement/Extension: Trend-based Fibonacci Retracement: Used to identify potential support and resistance levels during re-tracements. Trend-based Fibonacci Extension: Used to identify potential breakout levels during extensions.
NSE:SCILong
by billpramod
Can Cardano's (ADA) Rally Reach $2? A Deep Dive Cardano (ADA) has undeniably been one of the standout performers in November 2023, surging over 140% and reaching a multi-year high of $0.80. This impressive rally has sparked renewed optimism among investors, with many wondering if ADA can maintain its momentum and even reach the coveted $2 price point. The Drivers Behind Cardano's Rally Several factors have contributed to Cardano's recent price surge: 1. Network Upgrades and Developments: Cardano has consistently focused on technological advancements, with key developments like the Vasil hard fork enhancing its scalability and efficiency. These upgrades have positioned Cardano as a strong contender in the smart contract platform space. 2. Growing Ecosystem: The Cardano ecosystem has seen significant growth, with a growing number of decentralized applications (dApps) being built on the platform. This increased adoption has bolstered Cardano's utility and potential for future growth. 3. Positive Market Sentiment: The broader cryptocurrency market has experienced a resurgence in recent months, driven by factors such as declining inflation rates and potential regulatory clarity. This positive sentiment has spilled over into altcoins like Cardano. 4. Institutional Interest: Institutional investors have shown increasing interest in Cardano, recognizing its potential as a long-term investment. This institutional adoption can provide stable support to ADA's price. The Road to $2: Challenges and Opportunities While Cardano's rally has been impressive, several factors could impact its ability to reach the $2 price target: 1. Market Volatility: The cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile, and sudden price swings can occur due to various factors, including macroeconomic events, regulatory changes, and market sentiment shifts. 2. Technical Resistance Levels: As Cardano's price rises, it may encounter significant technical resistance levels. Overcoming these levels will be crucial for sustaining the uptrend. 3. Competition from Other Blockchains: Cardano faces competition from other established and emerging blockchains like Ethereum, Solana, and Polygon. These competitors offer unique advantages and could attract investor interest away from Cardano. 4. Regulatory Uncertainty: The regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies remains uncertain, and any negative regulatory developments could impact the price of ADA. Technical Analysis: A Glimpse into the Future Technical analysis provides valuable insights into potential price movements. Key technical indicators to watch for Cardano include: • Moving Averages: The 50-day and 200-day moving averages can provide support or resistance levels. A bullish crossover, where the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA, could signal a strong uptrend. • Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI measures the speed and change of price movements. An RSI above 70 indicates overbought conditions, while an RSI below 30 suggests oversold conditions. • MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator. A bullish crossover, where the MACD line crosses above the signal line, can signal a potential uptrend. Conclusion Cardano's recent rally has been fueled by strong fundamentals and positive market sentiment. While reaching the $2 price target is not impossible, it will require sustained momentum, overcoming technical hurdles, and navigating potential market challenges. Investors should conduct thorough research and consider consulting with financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
Long
by bryandowningqln