Microsoft: More Oversold than During Covid?Microsoft has declined along with other AI names in the last month. How big was the pullback? Some traders may be surprised to know its intensity.
The first noteworthy signal on today’s chart is Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI). The oscillator hit 24.69 on Monday. That was the lowest reading since August 2015. In other words, MSFT this week was more oversold than March 2020 -- at the depths of the coronavirus selloff.
Next, the software giant tested and held its April 25 low around $388. That may suggest support remains in effect.
Third, MSFT is trying to hold its 200-day simple moving average for the first time since March 2023. That could indicate the presence of a longer-term uptrend.
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Moving Averages
Possible 2 XDaily TF
1 - ema 20 crosses ema 50, down. 50% drop in price follows from April to July 24. 20 hasn't crossed back up yet, but showing signs of a support/floor.
2 - 20 did not make it back for a cross up. But price action tagged along on BTC rise. Followed by retrace.
3 - Increased volume. Visual signal for long...
*** Possible 2 X from price 0.021***
1HR TF
4 - Short term signs of a rise. 20 ema crossed 50. price heading towards a touch with the 200ema. Then anticipate a pullback. Use this TF in confluence with the D TF to execute a possible long entry. If volume good on the bounce and BTC showing strength, wait for confirmation to enter long.
15 Min TF
As per Anchored Volume profile and diagonal resistance line, target entry price is 0.02281
XAUUSD/H4 The development of the US session, psyche before newsExpectations for the US session on 8/8/2024:
The Asia-Europe session is mainly sideways in the 2392-2400 area. This is a sign of accumulation awaiting the US July Unemployment Rate.
In terms of technical analysis: the downward trend correction is still being maintained, a recovery from the 2380 area could form peaks in the 2410-2413 or 2427-2434 areas. Price levels to note: SELL: 2400-2404, 2410-2413, and 2425-2434; BUY: 2367-2371 and 2351-2355.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: SELL XAUUSD zone 2410-2413
SL 2416
TP 2400 - 2390 - 2377 - 2355.
Plan 2: SELL XAUUSD zone 2427-2430
SL 2435
TP 2415 - 2400 - 2377 - 2355.
Plan 3: BUY XAUUSD zone 2375 - 2377
SL 2370
TP 2390 - 2400 - 2410.
Solana to $300?Imho, the worse is likely in and even if we get a pullback, we'll chop around near the lows.
- Swing failure at range low
- Previous lows and range low defended
- Previous year high defended
- Reclaimed 200MA on daily
- Reclaimed POC
- Time + Price based capitulation likely done
- Possible selling climax in
Disclaimer: This post should NOT be construed as investment advice and is meant for learning purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investments.
$SPY August 8,2024AMEX:SPY August 8,2024
15 Minutes
Gap up was not able to sustain.
And 529-533 was resistance as expected.
Now for the day i will take 2 numbers.
The rise 510.28 to 531.59
The fall 531.59 to 518.05
The rise has retraced 61.8%So holding 514 levels is crucial for the day.
And for the fall 526 level could be resistance on a retrace.
So, i will sell below 514 and buy above 529 for the day.
This gives a 15$ gap.
So based on close of bar in 14 minutes during the day if i get a chance to enter above 522 levels, and moving average 9 is above 21 then I might go for a trade for 527-529 levels.
AMEX:SPY is weak as it is below all moving averages. So, any buy is only a contra trade with strict stop loss.
NIFTY has a downside target of 22ki see nifty heading down to the yellow circle (22048 approx)
which is the meeting point of
1. support trend line
2. 200 DMA
3.78.6% fib.level
it will not be a one way down move...you will get many pull backs in between
Bitcoin WeakBitcoin moved below 20/50/100 EMA. Now moving in downward channel.
Close below 60770 will take it to 57,000 & below it 50,000.
The Market Crashed. Meta Didn’tThe broader stock market fell sharply in recent weeks, but Meta Platforms has barely moved. Is it a positive sign?
The first pattern on today’s chart is the May 31 low of $454.16. The social-media giant held that level on July 25 as the Nasdaq-100 tumbled. It remained above it in subsequent sessions, even as the bigger index made new lows. That may suggest new support has been established.
Second, the recent low (this week) was the latest in a series of higher lows. That could be consistent with a longer-term uptrend.
META has also gone nowhere for half a year, which may create potential for prices to start moving again.
In fact, there could be signs the movement has begun. Notice how strong quarterly results pushed the stock above a falling trendline last week. MACD has just turned positive, as well.
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Selling EURUSD!!Hello traders this is one of the best setup for the week!
On this trade we have a few technical indication that tell us we might be selling.
We first have a head and shoulders which indicates that it might see a reversal very soon.
Another thing we have is this nice FVG which I think price will retest. This FVG will play an important role in setting our TP.
We also have have the 50 SMA with default settings looking pretty nice. If we breakout of the neckline we will be trading under the 50 SMA.
We also have a trendline which is not very valid but on this context is works
This could be for our TP but I will aim for the blue one which is based on our 4H FVG
Please note that this trade only after the breakout :)
Long EUR/JPY as BOJ admits it can be bullied by markets Shinichi Uchida, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), says the bank won’t hike interest rates when markets are unstable, delivering a clear message on what traders need to do to prevent them doing so again: create volatility.
It’s an amazing statement, signalling the BOJ can and will be bullied by markets to avoid doing what is right for the Japanese economy. It’s an incredibly dovish admission, giving traders the green light to re-establish carry trades until the BOJ starts making noise about hiking rates again.
Looking at EUR/JPY, we may see a morning star pattern on the daily timeframe after Uchida’s unexpected remark. Should the pair establish a foothold above 160.30, consider buying above the level with a stop below for protection. The initial trade target is the 200DMA at 164.11. Good luck!
DS
GOOG very good opportunity to gobble some upthe chart speaks for itself. very simple 200 SMA Support/Resistance :)
Free-fall dropThere's an invisible air mattress that just about does the job of protecting, and Wall Street investment managers are in again.
The Nasdaq Could Be OversoldThe Nasdaq-100 has fallen sharply in the last three weeks, but some traders may think the tech-heavy index is oversold.
The first pattern on today's chart is the sequence of simple moving averages (SMAs). The 50-day SMA is above the 100-day SMA and both are above the 200-day SMA. That may indicate the presence of a longer-term uptrend.
Second, NDX tested and held the 200-day SMA for the first time since the AI boom started in March 2023. Is this the kind of pullback long-term investors crave?
Third is the price zone around 17,284. It was the low in May and represents a retracement of about half the move between October’s trough and July's peak. Remaining at or above this area could suggest it's had a healthy pullback while remaining in an uptrend.
Finally, the lower study includes our Distance from MA custom script. It shows that the index ended Monday almost 8 percent under its 50-day SMA. That’s the furthest below that SMA since October 2022, shortly after the last bear market ended.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Why I Think EURUSD Will Sell This Week...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends,
I hope all is well and you are having a profitable trading month so far. If you are on a trading journey, keep going until you get the results you want. This is only my technical analysis of EURUSD so please cross reference the indicators you have on your charts and check the news.
I think EU will continue to sell this week and this is why:
- The candles have already rejected the previous the supply zone and formed a lower high
- The larger EMA (purple) has crossed below the smaller EMA (blue) on 4H. This is a strong bearish confirmation for me
- The Stochastic has crossed below 80, the slow line (orange) is above the fast line (blue) and both lines are facing down. This is a strong bearish confirmation for me
- Structure has been broken on the downside with the current candle
- There is a gap that must be filled
I entered this trade at market execution with my SL at a previous high and my TPs at previous lows. Greak luck if you decide to take this idea and happy trading.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
Bitcoin Analysis==>>Death Cross!?The fall of Bitcoin in the last 3-4 days has shocked everyone, first, let's take a look at the reasons for this fall :
The publication of the US employment report and the increase in the unemployment rate to the highest level in the last 3 years .
Tensions in the Middle East , the possibility of a confrontation between Iran and Israel in the coming days.
Rumors of selling Jump Trading's assets .
The Nikkei index of the Japanese stock market today fell 3,595.30 units , equivalent to -10.01% , to experience the heaviest daily decline in its history since October 1987 .
The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index hit its lowest level since early July , indicating panic in the market. However, I think the Fear and Greed index will enter the Extreme Fear zone in the coming days.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now, let's take a look at the Bitcoin chart on the daily time frame .
Bitcoin managed to break the Support zone($60,800-$56,700) which is shown on the chart with the Resistance zone. Also, Bitcoin has broken 200_SMA(Daily) , 100_SMA(Daily) , 200_SMA(Daily) and 21_SMA(Weekly) , which is NOT a good sign for BTC.
Most likely, the Death Cross Sell signal by Bitcoin will happen.
Death Cross Signal : The death cross appears on a chart when an asset's short-term Moving Average(MA), usually the 50-day , crosses below its long-term moving average, usually the 200-day .
From the point of view of Classic Technical Analysis , it seems that according to the momentum of Bitcoin's fall in the last 3-4 days, the continuing Descending Broadening Wedge pattern will fail, which could be a sign of the further fall of Bitcoin .
Looking at the USDT.D% chart , we can see that USDT.D% will probably increase again after a correction and attack the Resistance lines .👇
According to the explanation above, I expect Bitcoin to attack the Heavy Support zone($49,000-$38,500) again after the correction , probably near $59,000-$60,000. If the Support line is broken, we should expect Bitcoin to fall to $42,000-$43,000 .
Note: If Bitcoin can stabilize above the resistance zone, we can expect Bitcoin to rise again, but due to possible tensions that will happen in the Middle East in the coming days, this scenario is less likely to happen.
Note: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed.
Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), Daily time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
#XAUUSD/H4: Profit-taking area and trading trend of GOLDGold on Monday (8/5/2024) experienced a 1000pip drop, reflecting the common sentiment when the market takes profit and creates a downtrend.
Today's Asia-Europe session may see a slight recovery before continuing the drop.
The predominant trading trend today is SELL.
Key price levels to watch are: 2426-2434 and 2350-2355.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: SELL XAUUSD zone 2428 - 2431
SL 2437
TP 2420 - 2400 - 2385 - 2355.
Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 2351-2354
SL 2348
TP 2360 - 2370 - 2385.
Bad and Good trade examles what went on in my head todayI describe some of my loses and bad trades today and point out a trade that made sense.
15 Minutes.AMEX:SPY Aug 6, 2024
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY managed to hold above 505 yesterday.
We take 3 numbers
The fall 554.86 to 510.28
The fall 533.17 to 510.28
The fall 523.58 to 514.9
For the first fall AMEX:SPY made lL but oscillator also LL. Hence sell on rise probably until 538 is crossed.
For the second fall AMEX:SPY even with gap doen yesterday AMEX:SPY managed to retrace 61.8% arounf 523.5 levels.
Hence 510 should provide a good support today.
For the third set from 523.58 to 514.90 a retracement to 521 levels will give a change to short as it is also 50 averages.
On upside if 524 is crossed and we get a good close being near top of bar then 530-532 should be a target to aim as it will be approximately 100 200 averages number.
So, for the day i will go long above 524 and short 521 levels.
August 5th Trade Journaling.Lost $250 today. I go through some of my trades and walk through why they were bad or good trades. ALWAYS WATCH VOLUME.
Let's get friskyBitcoin will remain in an uptrend with minimum price action and slow days overall. I expect it to continue to look this boring for the next couple of weeks. This is usually the time when people are short and fear a break down even though we have already bottomed. The smart investors are accumulating.
ADA - weekly is TIGHTThe moving averages are getting tighter and tighter for ADA, which typically leads to big moves. What I'd like to actually see is these get even tighter, so spending another month or two in this .45 - .60 cent region will actually lead to a bigger move long term. PRICE TARGET $1.25-1.75 AUG-NOV timeframe.
What I expect to see is BTC shoot up to 83k in the next couple weeks, then 125k after that. I expect a big blow off top for BTC towards the end of the year. ADA will not keep up in that time frame. After BTC's high, then it will be alt season. Thats when I expect ADA to potentially make new highs, but I am not too optimistic about that this cycle.
If you like to look at other instances of this set up, look at BTC and ETH weekly moving averages back in October of 2023. The majority of the moving averages were within a 7% spread. ADA is currently around 14% spread.
