NASDAQ 100: Is a Bottom Forming? Key Levels and Risk-Reward InsiThe NASDAQ 100 is testing its 200-day moving average, a historically significant level for trend reversals. If it holds, the risk-to-reward setup looks attractive, with potential upside of up to 9% versus a limited downside. The we consider past reactions, political factors, and trade dynamics. A break above key resistance could confirm the move, though waiting for a V-shaped recovery might impact the reward ratio. What do you think? Share your thoughts.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information
Moving Averages
$SPY March 6, 2025AMEX:SPY March 6, 2025
15 Minutes.
As expected, we had SPY around 575. Taking support and trying to form a base.
Important because 570 is 200 averages in daily.
Once 570 is broken we are in trouble.
Now for the rise 572.74 to 586.58 to 573.08 we can expect 588- 594 as target provided 573 is held.
We rea having oscillator divergence in 15 and 30 minutes but not in 60 minutes.
So, i expect some volatility today/tomorrow for these 575 levels.
Not the time to longs. At the moment.
USD/CNH Near Pivotal Support – AUD, NZD Implications LoomUSD/CNH isn’t everyone’s favourite pair to trade, but it should be on your radar if you dabble in AUD/USD or NZD/USD. Its correlation coefficient with AUD/USD ranges from -0.72 to -0.96 across timeframes from five days to six months, while for NZD/USD, it sits between -0.78 and -0.95. That suggests a strong relationship when comparing performance against the U.S. dollar, especially in the very near and longer term.
That’s noteworthy given where USD/CNH sits on the charts, teetering just above 7.2345—a level where bearish moves have repeatedly fizzled in recent months. However, with momentum indicators biased lower, another attempt may have more success.
A sustained push below 7.2345 could encourage additional bears to join the break, particularly if minor support at 7.2130 gives way. While the 200DMA sits in between, price action has largely ignored it recently, showing far more interaction with the 50-day equivalent. That makes it worth noting but not a major barrier.
Below 7.2130, there’s little visible support until 7.1400—a level that capped gains for extended periods last October before the U.S. presidential election. If 7.2345 holds firm, traders may look for a potential retest of recent range highs around 7.3000 and the 50-DMA.
Good luck!
DS
TON/USDTToncoin (TON) is the native cryptocurrency of The Open Network (TON), a decentralized layer-1 blockchain initially developed by Telegram's team. Designed to support scalable and secure decentralized applications, TON utilizes a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism. Toncoin serves various purposes within the network, including transaction fee payments, network security through staking, and governance participation.
Technical Analysis: Toncoin is exhibiting a bearish trend, with prices moving downward. Currently, the price is consolidating within a small wedge pattern. A breakdown from this wedge could signal further declines. Additionally, there's an untested Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) in the highlighted green area, which may serve as a potential support level.
DXY + 10Y TANKING = BULL MARKETAs expected, the DXY is TANKING alongside the 10Y, and the WMA9 is finally breaking below the 20.
This combo is turbo juice for markets, as it allows Central Banks around the world to stimulate and opens the door for more growth in the US economy.
Ignore asset prices.
Focus on the macro.
This is a leading indicator.
HODL.
S&P 500: Bullish Signals Aligning for a ReboundFrom every angle, I'm bullish on the S&P 500 right now.
- Bouncing off the 200-day EMA, just like it did in August 2024.
- Trading above Yesterday’s Close, a key bullish signal.
- The current decline is politically driven, not fundamentally.
If you're in for the long-term, this doesn’t look like a time to sell —at least in my view.
The idea of going long on gold first is completely correctBrothers, are you bold enough to go long on gold in the 2910-2900 area according to my strategy today? The decision to go long on gold this time is very clear. As I wrote in my last post, the trend of the gold market is perfectly in line with my expectations. And I have always firmly implemented my strategy and strictly followed my ideas to go long on gold. Today, I have also made a lot of gains. Brothers, how about you? Have you also made a lot of profits?
In fact, as long as you grasp the rhythm, it is easy to profit from gold trading. If you don’t know the exact trading rhythm, you can follow my trading ideas. I will publish my trading ideas every day, and I will also publish free trading signals on time. Many friends have reported that it is very helpful. If you want to learn the market trading logic, or you want clear trading signals and get more profits, I can satisfy you. Follow the bottom of the article to enter for details!
First go long gold, then go short goldThe current international gold price shows a typical head and shoulders bottom reversal pattern, with 2900-2905 below being the key support area for gold. From a technical perspective, it shows that gold has accumulated reversal momentum at the bottom after falling, and the release of ADP employment data may promote the accelerated rise of gold prices. Then the resistance above gold will first focus on the suppression of the 2930 line. If gold breaks through 2930, then we can test the key resistance area of 2945-2955, the historical high.
Therefore, in short-term trading, I advocate going long gold. When gold falls back to around the 2910-2900 area, we can go long gold.
In fact, as long as you grasp the rhythm, it is easy to profit from gold trading. If you don't know the accurate trading rhythm, you can follow my trading ideas. I post my trading ideas every day and I also post free trading signals on a regular basis. Many friends have given feedback that it is very helpful. If you want to learn market trading logic, or you want clear trading signals and make more profits, I can satisfy you. Follow the bottom of the article to enter for details!
SOLUSDT at Critical Resistance – Will Bears Take Over? Yello, Paradisers! Is SOLUSDT setting up for a major drop? The technicals are flashing warning signs, and you need to pay attention.
💎SOLUSDT has broken down rising wedge, showing a loss of bullish momentum. On top of that, a bearish divergence is appearing, and the price is currently testing key resistance at the 200 EMA—a combination that significantly increases the probability of a bearish move.
💎If SOLUSDT retests the resistance zone and the 200 EMA again, a double top formation could play out. But before jumping in, waiting for bearish confirmation is the smart move.
💎If price breaks above and closes a candle above the resistance, it will invalidate the bearish thesis. In that case, patience is key—waiting for clearer price action will be the best approach.
🎖Trading isn’t about guessing—it’s about waiting for high-probability setups and executing with discipline. Stay sharp, Paradisers, and remember: the market rewards patience, not impulsive moves.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success 🌴
Royal Caribbean Hovers Near GapRoyal Caribbean hit an all-time high four weeks ago, but it’s been sliding since.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since January 31. Notice how each followed a tepid uptrend that failed to hold. The last may be viewed as a bearish flag within the context of a new short-term downtrend.
Speaking of short-term downtrends, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA. MACD is also falling. Those patterns may reflect a bearish direction.
Third, prices tried and failed to hold the rising 50-day simple moving average. That may suggest its intermediate-term trend is negative.
Next, earnings lifted RCL on January 28 but the rally didn't hold. Are investors abandoning ship on the fundamental story?
Finally, the cruise ship operator jumped above $220 on November 6 after the election. That could make traders look for prices to test that gap.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
EURUSD short until TP 1.0250 = see my reasons !Hello guys,
In the last few months I studied more the currencies in order to make more precise predictions about buying or selling.
This time, we have a SELL signal. My reasons :
- daily chart : upward band of Bollinger touched twice already and rejected
- 4 hour chart : there is a resistence area there should reject also this time
So, the quote should go on SELL until quote 1.0250 which is a possible support area and a psychological level as well.
See the attachements.
/url]
What do you think ?
Seeds in Chaos, Petals in Profit -A trader's guideSeeds in Chaos, Petals in Profit
A trader's guide to reading the market through nature's lens.
By: Masterolive
Intro:
This trader's guide is not another cookie-cutter trading system.
Instead, it focuses on building a long-term mindset and a way to read the market's chaos through nature's lens. This guide is grounded in real success but is not for the daily trader; it works for long-term swings using hourly price moves.
Over seven years of trading, I developed a unique way to view the market, which led to a practical trading mindset. The technique comes from simplifying the chart after experiencing endless combinations of indicators to no avail. It wasn't until I had to explain my concept to someone else that I found a way to use a garden analogy that fits the mindset well to see the market as a natural system: planting in chaos, thriving through storms.
Later, I read two books: "The Alchemy of Finance" by George Soros and "The Misbehavior of Markets" by Benoit Mandelbrot and Richard L. Hudson. Surprisingly, these two books validated my approach and inspired me to share it. Previously, I would tell no one because I thought it was silly.
The overall goal is to plant a garden, watch it grow, and understand how the weather affects the plants. This guide walks you through determining what flowers you want to plant and how to read the weather after you have made your choice.
It uses a garden and planting flowers as an analogy to choosing the right stocks and interpreting an EMA indicator to determine the market's direction. This guide also works well for Bitcoin.
This guide will help you understand how to read and interpret the chart. It will also give you accurate future context so you react less to the market moves and see the bigger picture: Plant while they panic.
This guide is not financial advice.
Part One - Planting.
Some traders focus on various companies based on technicals or fundamentals, some short-term and some long-term. Other traders will focus on a few stocks or diversify across many.
For this guide, we pick and diversify a sector with roles that thrive together. The industry can be broad or small, but we will use 10 assets, including nine stocks and Bitcoin, and explain how they correlate and grow into a weather-worthy garden.
In this garden, we will focus on Tech and Finance and explain how to plant and organize the garden. First, we must look back at the broadest picture in finance. We will choose a stock exchange and a crypto exchange in this garden. (1 and 2 out of 10 flowers)
Why an exchange? Simply put, traders will always look for stocks and crypto to buy. They will look for the best companies and the best opportunities. Therefore, stock exchanges will benefit from the revenue they generate. If a stock goes parabolic, the exchange still profits from that price move.
Choosing the exchange skips the hassle of finding companies in a haystack. The same is true for the crypto exchange. Our garden has two flowers: one stock exchange and one crypto exchange, representing those two sectors.
Next, what else can correlate with our garden from a zoomed-out view?
Let's choose a Bank and a payment processor. (3 and 4 out of 10 flowers)
Traders will need the bank to on and offramp their cash profits to and from the stock and crypto exchange. Meanwhile, they will need to process those electronic payments.
The bank and payment processors benefit from trading surges; if everyone piles in for a parabolic price move of a particular stock, the bank and payment processors benefit from the action, and the exchanges offering the stock get revenue from the surge.
Once again, this choice skips the need to hunt for specific stocks. It takes advantage of all stocks since traders need cash, banks, electronic payments, and exchanges to buy those company stocks or bitcoin.
Our garden now has Four flowers, a bank and payment processor, and two exchanges for this sector. The correlation? Exchanges, banks, and processors all thrive when traders move money.
The fifth is a pivot flower before we discuss the tech company sector. This pivot flower is a gambling company (5 out of 10).
How does this correlate? Some traders and other users gamble with their cash and profits; even in a recession or a depression, people will still gamble. Plus, users might take their gambling winnings and invest them in a stock or buy bitcoin. They need a bank, an exchange, and a payment method.
In this case, the flowers are self-reinforcing: gambling winnings or losses, stock booms or busts; it doesn't matter in the big picture because, once again, exchanges, banks, and processors all thrive when people move money. Our garden now has five flowers with a broad but strong correlation.
Now, on to the tech sector with the last five flowers.
You will hone in on specific tech roles at this point, but remember that your choices will be self-reinforcing.
If your choice booms, the exchange benefits, and you benefit again from the exchange stock. You will electronically transfer your profits to your bank, which you benefit from by owning the bank stock and payment processor. But if you're smart, you will skip the gambling and let the crowd roll the dice while you plant the profits.
We will focus on two more flowers (6 and 7 out of 10) for tech, so we need to find companies exposed to the popular and relevant tech we want. For tech company 1, you could expose yourself to AI, EVs, and ROBOTS. For tech company 2, Semiconductors (or graphics cards).
In this section of our garden, graphic cards and AI rely on one another, while EVs and robots use AI to operate. Eventually, people will buy or sell the robot and EV, and some may use the profits to buy stock (or Bitcoin), requiring a bank and payment processor.
Meanwhile, people use LLMs, log into their bank, or exchange daily on a computer that requires a graphics card.
Our garden now has seven flowers out of 10, 3 more to go!
We want to diversify (but stay correlated with our garden), so next, we will look at a real estate company or ETF—but not just any company or ETF, one that develops in tech hub areas. How does this correlate?
Robots, AI, EVs, and graphics cards all need workers to operate the companies; young talent will want to move to places where they can work in AI or Robotics or factory EV workers, so the real estate in those areas will be in high demand, so now we own the real estate for our Ai, EV, Robots, and graphic card workers.
As tech grows, real estate booms, driving more money through exchanges, banks, and processors.
We now have eight flowers in our weather-worthy garden.
For the 9th flower, we turn to a wildflower: none other than Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not just a crypto coin but a capital asset, a store of value for your currency when it debases.
People, especially tech workers, will buy, trade, and sell Bitcoin.
As people learn and turn to the asset, global capital will flow through Bitcoin as people around the world save their cash value,
whether it be from gambling winnings, selling a car, selling real estate, selling a stock, or simply putting part of their income from their tech job into it regularly. All of this requires Exchanges, Banks, and payment processors to move.
Bitcoin correlates with that, as exchanges profit off bitcoin, which you own stock in the exchange company. You still need a bank to land on and a payment processor to move the money electronically.
We now have nine flowers in our garden, and it's almost complete.
How can we diversify even more? We can use industrial metal for our last flower, but how does an industrial metal correlate with our tech and finance garden?
Copper is the metal that conducts electricity, and electricity is needed to move money, send Bitcoin, power a growing network of EV superchargers, and power the factories that produce EVs, graphics cards, robots, and more. Copper's the most vigorous root, tying every flower, from tech to finance, into a weather-worthy bed. Meanwhile, the crowds go for gold and sleep on copper.
That completes our garden with 10 flowers. It's a diversified flowerbed, but the flowers correlate in the big picture: Tech drives money movement, which benefits exchanges, banks, and processors; copper powers tech, which drives Bitcoin adoption.
Your goal is to find and build your garden. Think up different bigger pictures with other sectors and roles. Correlating these assets keeps the garden strong through chaos and self-reinforces one another.
To review, we have the following:
Stock exchange
Crypto Exchange
Bank
Payment processor
Gambling
Ai / EV / Robots
Semiconductors (Graphics cards)
Real estate
Bitcoin
Copper
Now that we have planted our garden, let's examine the weather and its meaning. We will learn to read the weather and see when storms are coming or clearing.
In part 2, you will set a simple EMA indicator, learn how to interpret the weather, and tend to the flowers in our garden.
Why I Think GBPJPY Will Continue to Sell...Technical Analysis Hey Rich Friends,
Happy Monday. I think GBPJPY will continue to sell this week. Here is what I am looking at:
- The market is approaching a previous area of support. If it breaks below 188.830, there is a strong chance that it will continue to drop. This is a potential sell-stop entry.
- The stochastic is facing down, the slow line (orange) is on top of the fast line (blue), and both lines have crossed below 20. These are strong bearish confirmations for me.
- There is bearish confluence on higher time frames (4H, D1, W1)
- I will be using a previous high for my stop loss, and previous lows as my TPs.
Make sure you check the news and cross-reference your chart before copying trade ideas from anyone.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
Did you follow me in shorting gold today?Brothers, do you boldly short gold in the 2920-2930 area according to my strategy today? As I said in my last post, although the bullish trend of gold is relatively strong, gold has not adjusted downwards after rising. We still need to pay attention to the rise and fall of gold. And I resolutely implemented my strategy, strictly followed my ideas to short gold, and made two profits, which is a slight profit of 200pips. I think as long as you follow my trading ideas, you will definitely gain a lot.
As I often say, the essence of our trading in the market is to make profits. Any trader who does not aim to make money is not a qualified trader. Otherwise, why should we bear market risks? As the old saying goes, persistence is the key to everything. As long as you are determined, then stick to it and implement it wholeheartedly. I hope we all have a great start, which means everything will go well for us in the future! It makes me look forward to our future even more! I hope to have the opportunity, and I also hope to have a cup of coffee with all my friends and share our joy!
Brothers, profit is the ultimate goal of trading, and accumulating profits is what changes your life and destiny. Wise choices are far more important than hard work. If you want to copy trading signals, earn stable profits, or want to learn in depth about the correct trading logic and techniques, you can consider joining the channel at the bottom of this article!
$SPY March 4, 2024AMEX:SPY March 4, 2024
15 Minutes.
Yesterday retraced near 200 averages and fell.
So, for the fall 570 is the 1.618% extension which is possible as it is also 200 in daily.
For the day or tomorrow my target is 575 levels first.
If 575 is broken, we can go towards November lows.
586-588 is good level to short for the day.
Pay attention to gold's rise and fall, go short!Gold has currently traded as high as around 2910, and gold’s highs are constantly being refreshed. Are the bulls about to return?
The surge in gold this time is mainly due to the continued fermentation of the news of the breakdown of the US-Ukraine negotiations and the impact of Trump's speech in the early morning. Today, Trump will also deliver his first speech in Congress, which will undoubtedly add more uncertainty to the market. From the hourly chart, the current short-term resistance above gold is suppressed in the 2910-2920 area. In the short term, the bullish trend is relatively strong, but gold has not fallen after rising, so it is necessary to pay attention to the high and fall of gold. We can short in the 2920-2930 area.
Brothers, profit is the ultimate goal of trading, and accumulating profits is what changes your life and destiny. Wise choices are far more important than hard work. If you want to copy trading signals, make stable profits, or want to learn the correct trading logic and skills in depth, you can consider joining the channel at the bottom of this article.
How to develop a simple Buy&Sell strategy using Pine ScriptIn this article, will explain how to develop a simple backtesting for a Buy&Sell trading strategy using Pine Script language and simple moving average (SMA).
Strategy description
The strategy illustrated works on price movements around the 200-period simple moving average (SMA). Open long positions when the price crossing-down and moves below the average. Close position when the price crossing-up and moves above the average. A single trade is opened at a time, using 5% of the total capital.
Behind the code
Now let's try to break down the logic behind the strategy to provide a method for properly organizing the source code. In this specific example, we can identify three main actions:
1) Data extrapolation
2) Researching condition and data filtering
3) Trading execution
1. GENERAL PARAMETERS OF THE STRATEGY
First define the general parameters of the script.
Let's define the name.
"Buy&Sell Strategy Template "
Select whether to show the output on the chart or within a dashboard. In this example will show the output on the chart.
overlay = true
Specify that a percentage of the equity will be used for each trade.
default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity
Specify percentage quantity to be used for each trade. Will be 5%.
default_qty_value = 5
Choose the backtesting currency.
currency = currency.EUR
Choose the capital portfolio amount.
initial_capital = 10000
Let's define percentage commissions.
commission_type = strategy.commission.percent
Let's set the commission at 0.07%.
commission_value = 0.07
Let's define a slippage of 3.
slippage = 3
Calculate data only when the price is closed, for more accurate output.
process_orders_on_close = true
2. DATA EXTRAPOLATION
In this second step we extrapolate data from the historical series. Call the calculation of the simple moving average using close price and 200 period bars.
sma = ta.sma(close, 200)
3. DEFINITION OF TRADING CONDITIONS
Now define the trading conditions.
entry_condition = ta.crossunder(close, sma)
The close condition involves a bullish crossing of the closing price with the average.
exit_condition = ta.crossover(close, sma)
4. TRADING EXECUTION
At this step, our script will execute trades using the conditions described above.
if (entry_condition==true and strategy.opentrades==0)
strategy.entry(id = "Buy", direction = strategy.long, limit = close)
if (exit_condition==true)
strategy.exit(id = "Sell", from_entry = "Buy", limit = close)
5. DESIGN
In this last step will draw the SMA indicator, representing it with a red line.
plot(sma, title = "SMA", color = color.red)
Complete code below.
//@version=6
strategy(
"Buy&Sell Strategy Template ",
overlay = true,
default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity,
default_qty_value = 5,
currency = currency.EUR,
initial_capital = 10000,
commission_type = strategy.commission.percent,
commission_value = 0.07,
slippage = 3,
process_orders_on_close = true
)
sma = ta.sma(close, 200)
entry_condition = ta.crossunder(close, sma)
exit_condition = ta.crossover(close, sma)
if (entry_condition==true and strategy.opentrades==0)
strategy.entry(id = "Buy", direction = strategy.long, limit = close)
if (exit_condition==true)
strategy.exit(id = "Sell", from_entry = "Buy", limit = close)
plot(sma, title = "SMA", color = color.red)
The completed script will display the moving average with open and close trading signals.
IMPORTANT! Remember, this strategy was created for educational purposes only. Not use it in real trading.