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Moving Averages

$84K BTC Battle, ETF Resilience, and Macroeconomic ShadowsBitcoin's journey remains a captivating saga of volatility, resilience, and the interplay of technical indicators and macroeconomic forces. Recently, the cryptocurrency surged past $84,000, reigniting bullish sentiment, but faces a critical test at a key resistance level.1 This surge, fueled by a broader rebound in risk assets, pushed BTC above its 200-day moving average, a pivotal benchmark for assessing long-term trends. However, this bullish momentum is juxtaposed with significant selling pressure, ETF outflows, and lingering concerns about regulatory and macroeconomic landscapes. The 200-Day Moving Average: A Battleground for Bulls The 200-day moving average is a widely recognized technical indicator that provides insight into the long-term trend of an asset. For Bitcoin, consistently closing above this level signifies a potential shift from bearish to bullish momentum. The recent breach is a positive sign for bulls, indicating renewed confidence and potentially attracting further investment. However, a sustained close above this level is crucial to solidify the bullish outlook. The importance of this level is highlighted by the narrative that a weekly close above this average would confirm a market bottom. This emphasizes the significance of longer timeframes in validating trends in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. $86K or $65+K: A Price at a Crossroads Bitcoin's price currently finds itself at a critical juncture. The immediate challenge is breaching the $86,000 resistance level. A successful breakout could pave the way for further gains, potentially pushing Bitcoin towards new all-time highs. Conversely, failure to overcome this resistance could lead to a pullback towards the $65,000 support level. This range represents a crucial battleground for bulls and bears, with the outcome likely to determine the short-term trajectory of Bitcoin's price. MVRV Ratio: A Potential Reversal Indicator The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is another key metric that investors closely monitor. It compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized capitalization, providing insights into potential overbought or oversold conditions. A high MVRV ratio suggests that Bitcoin is overvalued and prone to a correction, while a low ratio indicates undervaluation and potential for a rebound. The MVRV ratio nearing a key level suggests that a major reversal could be imminent, adding another layer of complexity to Bitcoin's current price action. ETF Resilience Amidst Volatility Despite a 25% price drop, Bitcoin ETF investors have maintained a relatively strong stance. This resilience is reflected in the collective $115 billion in assets under management by US Bitcoin ETFs. This demonstrates the growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin and the increasing acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class. However, since mid-February, Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed total outflows of nearly $5 billion. This outflow points to a potential shift in investor sentiment, possibly driven by concerns about market volatility or macroeconomic uncertainties. The strength of the ETF market is a double edged sword. While significant holdings demonstrate institutional buy in, large outflows can increase sell pressure on the underlying asset. Selling Pressure and Macroeconomic Shadows Bitcoin's recent decline is attributed to intensified selling pressure, reflecting a broader trend of risk aversion in the market. This selling pressure is exacerbated by concerns about the potential impact of digital currencies on traditional banking systems. Banks are increasingly weighing the implications of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, leading to regulatory scrutiny and potential policy changes. Furthermore, macroeconomic factors continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Concerns about inflation, interest rate hikes, and geopolitical tensions are contributing to market volatility and impacting the demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Presidential Policy and Market Sentiment A presidential policy aimed at creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve initially sparked optimism among investors. However, this initial enthusiasm waned, highlighting the complex interplay between policy announcements and market reactions. While such policies can signal government acceptance of cryptocurrencies, they may not always translate into immediate price appreciation. The market's reaction suggests that investors are more focused on broader macroeconomic trends and regulatory clarity. The lack of sustained positive impact from the policy announcement underscores the importance of addressing fundamental concerns about Bitcoin's long-term viability and regulatory framework. Navigating the Volatility Bitcoin's current situation highlights the inherent volatility and unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market. Investors must remain vigilant and adapt to rapidly changing market conditions. The interplay of technical indicators, ETF flows, and macroeconomic factors creates a complex landscape that requires careful analysis and strategic decision-making. In conclusion, Bitcoin's battle at $84K, coupled with the resilience of ETF investors and the shadow of macroeconomic uncertainties, paints a picture of a market at a critical juncture. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can sustain its bullish momentum or succumb to renewed selling pressure. Understanding the interplay of these factors is essential for navigating the volatile world of cryptocurrency investing.
by bryandowningqln
Dow Jones 3-daily OutlookLooks like a confirmed double-top, might turn into a Head/Shoulders even. Head Shoulders: A common scenario with these is, it looks like a double top, then has a strong reclaim of the neckline, which is around 41.9k, and then a 2nd loss of it shortly after w/ yet another re-test with failure to reclaim. Double Top: Another common scenario is just a re-test and failure to reclaim, and this is a textbook double-top. 50/200 3-daily EMAs and MAs: After losing the 50 EMA and MA, we keep dropping below the 200 EMA and MA on the 3 daily chart during stronger dips, and then finally recovering back above both. Recovery or Recession? Recovery: If we want to see a recovery, we need to do that again. So, a strong move back above the 200 and 50 EMAs/MAs after losing both, down to around 38.5k and then 37.5k, possibly as low as 36.3ish. Or, for a more immediate flip to bullish, we need to reclaim ~41.9k during any re-tests, and then head to a new ATH above 45k. Recession: If we don't bounce from just below the 200 EMA and MA, we might see an extended move down or even a recession.
TVC:DJIShort
by dudebruhwhoa
Time to Scoop up Small Caps?The Russell 2000 is down 17% from November highs. According to Bank of America, small caps are not pricing in a recession. Historical small-cap selloffs during recessions have been 35-40%, with forward P/Es dropping about 30%. Earnings are still 38% below their peak. Small caps trade at 14.2x earnings, slightly below the historical average, suggesting they reflect a mild manufacturing slowdown rather than a recession. P/E valuations suggest 9% annualized returns for the Russell 2000 over the next decade, compared to 5% for mid-caps and 1% for large caps. IWM Technicals: - Multi-year log trend support. - Vastly under the yearly average (yellow).
AMEX:IWMLong
by Audacity618
1
Shorting Gold!Gold has been on a TEAR through 2025. Overextended in ATH territory and more expensive than ever before in history. Logically, we should expect a return to historically normal (still expensive) prices. Daily chart is showing 3/3 sell signals 1. Price below 9 period MA 2. RSI bearish fanning beautifully from overbought levels 3. Average Daily Range expanding with volatility I'm aggressively watching for shorts on Gold, Silver, and Copper in the weeks ahead. I've outlined 3 possible entries IF we're lucky enough to see some kind of relief from last weeks selloff. Should price proceed to fall, preparing smaller time frame short trades. I strongly believe we will see 2800. Strategy is invalidated if price breaches ATH's
COMEX:GC1!Short
by GrayTrader01
Silver Could Be on Breakout Watch Before the FedSilver has been clawing higher as gold soars. Is the white metal ready to break out? The first pattern on today’s chart is the falling trendline along the highs of October, February and March. Traders could watch that resistance for evidence a move is starting. They may also notice the rally after a similar line was broken in January. Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) just crossed above the 100-day SMA. Both are above the 200-day SMA. The alignment, with faster SMAs above slower SMAs, may reflect increased bullishness over the long-term. Third, the low reading on Bollinger BandWidth reflects tight price action. Could that narrow range create potential for price expansion? Finally, silver has spent most of the last six months above its peak from early 2021. That is also potentially consistent with a longer-term breakout. All these points could make the commodity important to watch with initial jobless claims and producer prices tomorrow, retail sales Monday and the key Federal Reserve meeting on March 19. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
OANDA:XAGUSD
by TradeStation
Stocks May Be OversoldThe S&P 500 has been falling swiftly, but it may be considered oversold. The first pattern on today’s chart is Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the lower study. RSI slipped below 30 for the first time since October 2023. That could make some traders think it’s due for a potential bounce. Next, the middle study includes our MA Distance custom script. It shows price dropped the furthest below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) since October 2022. That may also suggest it’s experienced a healthy pullback. Third is July 5’s last price of 5567, which was the first weekly close in the second half of 2024. It became resistance in early August and support in two subsequent weeks. SPX held that level again yesterday, so it may be reemerging as a meaningful area. If the index manages to stabilize here and rebound, how high might the bounce go? Traders could potentially look to the price zone between January 13's low of 5773 and the March 4 low of 5733. It’s also near the 200-day SMA. Investors with a longer-term view may expect further volatility given the sharpness of the recent drop and the uncertainty caused by tariffs. That may prompt them to eye a deeper low around 5402, where SPX held in early September before breaking out to new highs. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
Bitcoin Tests Resistance: Will the CME Gap Get Filled?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) continued its downward trend as I expected in the previous post , but over the past 12 hours , Bitcoin has started to increase from Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . The question is whether this upward trend will continue in the past few hours or not !? ------------------------------------------------------------------------- JOLTS Job Openings & Its Potential Impact on Bitcoin The JOLTS Job Openings report will be released today, March 11 . It provides key insights into the U.S. labor market . This data can influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance , impacting risk assets like Bitcoin. Potential Impact on Bitcoin : Higher-than-expected job openings : Signals labor market strength, increasing the likelihood of Fed tightening → Bearish for Bitcoin Lower-than-expected job openings : Suggests labor market weakness, increasing the odds of rate cuts → Bullish for Bitcoin Historical Influence : In previous months, JOLTS data has triggered volatility across financial markets, including crypto. For instance, a sharp decline in job openings last year led to a weaker dollar and Bitcoin rally. Conversely, stronger-than-expected job numbers have reinforced hawkish Fed expectations, pressuring Bitcoin. I believe there's a higher probability that the JOLTS report will come in weaker than expected, which could lead to a short-term rally in Bitcoin and gold. However, if the report is stronger than anticipated, we might see temporary selling pressure in the market. What is your idea!? Today's positive news was " Trump Plans Order to End Crypto Banking Restrictions ". In general, Trump's statements no longer affect the crypto market as much as before. Do you agree with me? ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now let's take a look at the Bitcoin chart on the 1-hour timeframe and use technical analysis tools . Bitcoin is moving in the Resistance zone($84,130_$81,500) and near the 200_SMA(Daily) . According to Elliott Wave theory , Bitcoin has completed five down waves , and we should wait for the next up waves . One of the signs of the end of wave 5 is the presence of a Regular Divergence (RD+) between two consecutive valleys . According to the above explanation , I expect Bitcoin to re-attack the Resistance zone($84,130_$81,500) after a downward correction and attempt to fill the CME Gap($86,400_$84,200) . Note: If Bitcoin can move above $87,200, we can expect the start of an uptrend. Note: We should expect a bigger drop if Bitcoin falls below $72,000. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
18
Just like we drew it up. (Laser Eyes)2 different scenarios for bulls here. Sentiment is at a major low and many are giving up and waving the white flag... this makes me more bullish for the future. Forget "altseason" and the meme narratives, and focus solely on Bitcoin as the crypto market. It is still not done and has much more to run. See the similarities panning out currently from 2024. Could it be a coincidence or manipulation to make the chart look so similar? No one can be certain but either way, we can guess where this is heading regardless.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by RetiredNovice