Weak SignalThe fear is big and we have reaxhed a supporting MA now.
Trying to stem against the fear.
Moving Averages
NIO Has A Broken Neck! Can we take advantage?NIO is showing a textbook head and shoulders (Bearish) pattern. It is characterized by a change in market structure where the left shoulder forms the initial high and low, the head signifies the continuation and the right shoulder is the failure in the resumption of the trend. In this chart, we notice that the right shoulder fails to make a new high and proceeds to make a new low. By connecting the pivot lows, we can identify a H&S neckline near the $5 mark. We recently fell below this line which is our first signal to enter the short.
Looking for additional confluence, we note that there was significant support that was broken in the pink zone which stems from March 2024. That zone has been tested several times since March 2024. We have also broken below the 200ma which confirms the long-term downtrend. On the most recent candle, we broke below these key levels with above-average spread and above-average volume suggesting strength to the downside. Finally, since Trump has won the presidency, he vowed to increase tariffs, especially for China. This is terrible fundamental news for the Chinese stock.
Aggressive traders may take the short as is and may ride the short to the first target (~$4) which I have identified as a potential support area. There is a second target which is projected by the head and shoulders pattern (~$3.50)
For more conservative traders, we can wait for the retest of the neckline which happens to coincide with the 200 MA and sits just above the former support turned resistance. I like this level better because it provides a better risk-reward ratio.
Key notes: Earnings are coming up in a few days. This could be a volatile event that works in the trade's favor or works against it. Please be aware of that risk while trading.
GLTA
$SPY February 26, 2025AMEX:SPY February 26, 2025
15 Minutes.
100% extension move was completed yesterday. Now i expect a bounce before next fall.
For the rise 589.56 to 596.67 holding 593.5 - 594 is important for 597.5 to 599 levels.
We are still in a series of LL and LH pattern and below 200 averages too.
For the extension 589.56 to 599.96 to 593.02 I have a target 597-598 levels.
That should be a good level to short again.
(ETH) ethereumWhen can we expect to see reports on the new concepts about Ethereum in the future?
Buying mode, price of Ethereum well under the dotted line. Ethereum has not had a strong position for some time and is likely to find profits. One large drop in price does not usually follow another than another than another and especially not with such large volume and capital. Am I in control of the flow, no. Do I have billions to make heavy movements, no. Am I interested in the progress of Ethereum despite holding little to no value in Ethereum, yes.
btc finds 200 ema support, whats next?As I have been posting in these "Ideas" for the past few weeks about market direction and where the price for BTC will go. It now has come to pass where the 200 EMA has been tested and support has been found, It however has not generated any relief among buyer sentiment unable to push price above the previous days close leaving the digital asset to continue to bleed out and cause positions from all the 93k Bulls to liquidate.
Its a shame people cannot make the connection that the only way price can go higher is to go lower in a market. That Is why I am going to warn people about where we may go , I believe the 200 EMA will be tested again and if support is broken it will send is into the low 70k area where there are open orders and It is possible this may happen. The Bull market support band is the 200EMA however there may be institutional money that may drive us down to cause massive liquidations and fear and panic among those holding bags while greed causes big players to push more into the fringe of where we can maintain a recovery.
Watch for a retest of the 200EMA . which is a bit of a fuzzy zone , use the high and low to denote the area for support as well as keep an eye on the RSI and CCI , we are also watching on balance volume drop off which is not a great sign that there is market confidence however this will play out over the weekly and the weekly candle will start to materialize in the next few days.
MSFT ChannelBetween January 2023 and July 2024 NASDAQ:MSFT had a nearly 100% expansion showing aggressive growth. For the last 8 months however, MSFT has been trading sideways in a channel between ~$455 and ~$400. During the last earnings report future growth guidance came in under expectations. Technically, there was large gap down following earnings and a retraction to the 21 EMA offering a short entry window. I took a short position here with a stop loss placed above the 21 EMA, I will be adding to this position when price breaks the support of $400 and again if it continues to fall and retracts to the $400 level. First target is the previous $373 support level, second target is the $330 support level.
BIDU: MAs coiling tightly + Double bottomI really like BIDU stock here, so I entered more than my usual size.
What I like about this setup
- MAs coiling super tightly across all timeframes. 10, 20, 50, 100, 200. Tight MAs represent volatility contraction and this often leads to volatility expansion, i.e. large price movements. All the MAs are now within 5% range. When the MAs crossover, its like this combo nuclear reaction igniting one another, propelling the stock upwards. And its possible you get a sustained one.
- 10 and 20 MA are already above 50MA. short term, we are up. And now I'm waiting for the next nuclear reaction to happen.
- We have attempted to break above this 94.5 key resistance for many times now. If we do, easily 113 as price target.
- Double bottom formation. Yes, its not a double bottom yet since it hasn't break above the neckline. But that false breakdown earlier gave me extra confidence that we have bottomed.
- Fibo retracement at 50% line now. Good support. (did not draw it in, else it becomes cluttered)
- Tailwind from China internet sector.
When will I stop loss
- Break below previous low at 96.8 and stay below 50MA for 5 days.
Others
- I note that Im front-running this a little. If it goes to 92.5 above the flag, and 200sma, it would be better confirmation. But I entered with options, so I wanted a better price before the pump actually happens.
Downtrend in Applied Materials?Applied Materials has struggled since the summer and some traders may see further downside in the provider of chip equipment.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of higher lows between late December and mid-February. Earnings beat estimates on February 13, but conservative guidance pushed the stock below that line. The result is a potential bear-flag breakdown.
Second, short- and long-term moving averages may show bearish trends. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed under the 100-day and 200-day SMAs in September. Two months later, the 100-day SMA slid below the 200-day SMA.
The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed under the 21-day EMA two weeks ago. MACD has also been negative.
Finally, you have the big event of NASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia earnings tomorrow afternoon. Given its importance to the entire semiconductor industry, AMAT could be especially volatile around the news.
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SP500 April targetAs interest rates are set to drop. Safe momentum bullish idea. Sell portion of position as we retest high. we can set ATH again depending on economic conditions.
What happened? The gold price fell to 2935 againAfter waking up, I found that the gold price stopped at 2635. It was strange that the price was still at 2953 when I was about to rest, and no reporter told me that there was an emergency in the middle. Why did the gold price fall so fast?
I looked at the market. After the Asian market opened, the gold price was technically corrected and the pressure from the upper high was strong, so it was adjusted back to repair the rebound affected by the news in the New York market.
The news hardly mentioned how badly things were going. On the contrary. Maybe this time the negotiations were effective. The negotiations are being revised one after another. If the peace talks come to an end, the gold price may see a large adjustment. It is expected that a few hundred points will be very easy.
At present, there is still a need for further technical corrections, leaving aside the impact of news. In the short term, the gold price still wants to break the upward channel. The bears are still very strong, and the current gold price is at 2936. The hourly candlestick chart shows that if the point near 2925 falls below, there is a high probability that it will fall below 2900 in the short term. If there is no entity breaking this position in the short term, it will still be mainly consolidating at a high of 2930-2950.
Therefore, buying low and selling high is the main option. Before the general direction is decided, it is difficult to see a unilateral sharp rise or fall in the market, so keep this trading strategy and idea.
$SPY February 25, 2025AMEX:SPY February 25, 2025
15 Minutes
As expected, AMEX:SPY retraced and fell back. Took support at 596 levels.
592 is downside target for the extension 610.70 to 596.48 to9.47 to 603.02.
For the fall 603.02 to 596.48 AMEX:SPY retraced 78% to around 601 levels. And made nearly double bottom around 596 levels.
At the moment upside is limited to 603 levels being 20 averages in 5 minutes.
Trend is down until 610 is taken out.
I am cautiously calling the bottom on NVOIt might be a bit early to call this a bottom, especially given the unpredictable market, but I’m noticing a few key signals aligning:
The 8/21 curl following a double bottom
A break above the 50-day SMA occurring on a red day like today
Momentum shifting positive and being released from a squeeze
That said, stay cautious—this setup has tricked me before.
$SOL RSI Most OVERSOLD Since June 2023!Still no clear signals on CRYPTOCAP:SOL yet.
However, the RSI on the DAILY IS THE MOST OVERSOLD its been SINCE JUNE 2023.
I personally opened a long here.
Not for the faint at heart.
Could dip down to $133’ish and range between $146.
We DO NOT want to range too long in this area as you can see there has already been HEAVY consolidation.
Look for a V-Shape reversal trying to reclaim that ~$157 level for bullish confirmation.
Nifty formed falling wedge on daily time frame - Towards 20,300On daily time frame, Nifty has falling wedge breakdown.
It has good support at 20,550 on weekly closing base.
Below 20,550 it will have following targets possible,
22,000 / 21,680 / 21,300 / 20,900 / 20,600 / 20,300
Technically 20,300 possible to fill gap on day time frame.
DEEP - Finding The Next Trade SetupDEEP recently took out the January 13, 2025 low at $0.12345 with a Swing Failure Pattern (SFP), followed by a successful retest. This led to a bounce that hit a key level at $0.12141, presenting a solid long opportunity with minimal risk.
After this, the market turned bullish, forming a 5-wave structure and rallying to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.18643 (measured from the $0.20473 high to the $0.11922 low). This was a key take-profit zone for longs and a great short opportunity.
Adding confluence, the anchored VWAP also acted as resistance just above at $0.19, offering another low-risk short setup. Additionally, a key resistance level at $0.1809 further reinforced the rejection zone.
Current Price Action & Short Setup
From the 0.786 Fib retracement, DEEP retraced 20% downward, nearly touching the 0.618 retracement of the 5-wave structure before bouncing. Now, price is finding resistance at the golden pocket (0.618 at $0.17347 and 0.666 at $0.17534) of the recent drop, aligning perfectly with the daily 21 EMA ($0.1757) and daily SMA ($0.17347).
This setup suggests an ABC corrective move is forming.
Using the trend-based Fibonacci extension, the 0.786 extension aligns with the 0.618 retracement at $0.1457, creating a strong short setup.
Short Entry: Between $0.17347 - $0.17534
Target: $0.1457 (0.786 trend-based Fib extension / 0.618 retracement)
Stop Loss: $0.1845
Risk/Reward: 2.5:1
There’s also potential to extend the target to the 1:1 trend-based Fib extension at $0.13733, but this would depend on price action.
Potential Long Setup
If price reaches the $0.1457 support zone, this could present a high-probability long opportunity.
Entry: Around $0.1457
Risk/Reward: 2:1 or better, but confirmation is needed before executing the trade
HSI breakout: 21377 price targetHSI has broken out of the descending daily trend line, and also found support at the 200. day EMA.
With a potential bottom having formed, the first price target for the coming move up would be 21377 which price previously rejected twice from.
Beyond that, price can target 22686, then 25048 which is the top of the golden pocket, being the 0.65 retracement of the entire move down from ATHs.
Microsoft’s Momentum Could Be FadingMicrosoft has sputtered for months, and now some traders may see downside risk.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the pair of bearish gaps after earnings.
The software giant rebounded quickly in November, returning above its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
Contrast that with January 30’s drop, when prices stayed under both moving averages. That session’s opening price around $418.77 has also emerged as resistance this month.
Second, the 50-day SMA is nearing a potential “death cross” below the 200-day SMA. That’s a potentially bearish long-term signal.
MACD has been negative and the 8-day EMA is below the 21-day EMA. Those are potentially bearish short-term signals.
Next, the stock has been trying to hold the November lows around $405. But if that level breaks, the August low under $386 may come into play.
Finally, MSFT has traded an average of 463,000 options contracts per day in the last month. (It’s the eight most active underlier in the S&P 500 in that time, according to TradeStation data.) That may create opportunity for options traders to position for a potential move toward the 52-week low.
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DXY Falling Below $106 - Cue AltSeason in March!The biggest shock to everyone is going to be the price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC going DOWN while ALTS skyrocket 🚀
As I have discussed in my macro thesis, the TVC:DXY is FINALLY breaking down on the Weekly along with the 10Y.
RSI has topped and Price broke below the WMA9 & 20.
Just waiting on the WMA9 to break below the WMA20 for final confirmation.
Historically when this happens...
it’s ALTSEASON BABY!!! 🥳
After this happened in March 2017,
BTC and ALTS pumped together,
then BTC went down 33% while ALTS exploded higher over a 3 week period before BTC rallied alongside again.
probable target zoneBased historical breakdown, see depicted probable target area. Bull will want that moving average to hold.
GBPAUD LongGBPAUD has been having a lot of price action in between the HTF Swing High and Swing Low. After HTF (Higher Time Frame) and Internal Demand Zone Mitigation, GBPAUD should be heading towards the next Buyside Internal Liquidity and the Swing High. This is just an analysis and forecast. Trade it at your own risk.
$SPY February 24, 2025AMEX:SPY February 24, 2025
15 Minutes.
The move from 610.70 to 599.47 is extended.
Hence a retracement is possible.
I expect a retracement to 602-603 levels.
On weekly have a bad close.
High was made and close was near low.
On daily $\spy near 50-day average.
I expect a bounce to 603 -604 levels this week for a target 594 being 100 moving averages.
Not a week to go long.
As expected, 613-614 provided resistance and AMEX:SPY pulled back as extension targe was achieved.
S&P 500 mostly neutral heading into summer 2025All the usual disclaimers:
1. I am not registered with FINRA. I am not a financial advisor.
2. Prior performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
3. This post is not and is not intended as financial advice. Instead, this post shares speculation upon hypothetical possible future outcomes.
4. This post uses purely doodling and technical analysis. It is not based to any extent upon education from news sources, information releases from underlying firms, nor upon microeconomic nor macroeconomic principles.
5. This scrying is unlikely to predict price action and VWAP vectors (direction and magnitude) within 50% accuracy over any specific interval.
The gray scrying upon CME_MINI:ESH2025 foreshadows replay of VWAPs starting since November and December. Both converge in early summer 2025 that appears slightly bullish during their +3 month windows, but they also return to the current price zone of contention. Referring to "2. Prior performance is not a guarantee of future performance," even when lightning strikes multiple times, it never follows the exact same path.
The daily normal range (orange for post, pre, and early trading) and daily extreme range (red for normal and late trading) boxes appear to have been sufficiently calibrated for ESH2025. They may need to be recalibrated each quarter.
