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BTCUSDT: Testing the 20K Support Followed by an Upward MovementBitcoin has experienced a significant upward trajectory, starting below 16k and reaching a peak at 31k. It is anticipated that the next phase will involve a corrective visit to the Fibonacci level of 0.618, estimated to be around $21400. However, I believe Bitcoin may dip slightly further, potentially settling around the 20k mark, which aligns with the support level observed in March. The convergence of the MA25 and MA99 indicators in early June, with the short-term MA falling below the long-term MA, suggests a potential bearish trend in the coming months. It is important to note that this is merely my personal perspective on Bitcoin's outlook and should not be taken as financial advice.
by fortitude23
📈🐂 EURUSD Technical Analysis: Bouncing on Demand Zone! 🚀🐂Hey traders! 🐂📈 Exciting times ahead as we've got a bullish setup on the EURUSD forex pair in the 1-hour timeframe. Let's dive into this opportunity! 📈🐂 💹 Demand Zone Bounce: The price action bounced strongly on the demand zone, indicating an area where institutions have placed their orders and are likely to defend this level. 📈 Descending Channel Breakout: Adding to the bullish momentum, the price broke out of a descending channel and retested it successfully, signaling the start of a highly potential bullish impulse. 💡 Take Profit Zones: As we ride this uptrend, my take profit zones are strategically placed at 1.11300, 1.12000, and finally, my target at 1.12600. Keeping an eye on these key levels is essential for managing the trade effectively. 🧐 Remember, trading requires careful analysis and risk management. Let's keep a close eye on this setup and make the most of potential trading opportunities. Wishing you success in your trading journey! Feel free to share your toughts in the comments section, follow me for updates and don't forget to press the like button if this insight was helpful🚀
by Thomas_Zito
18
📈AUDUSD Bullish Gartley Pattern: Time to Ride the Trend! 🚀Hey fellow traders! There is an exciting setup on the AUDUSD forex pair in the 4-hour timeframe. Let's dive into the details and explore the dynamics between buyers and sellers. 🐻 Sellers' Struggle: Price has formed a bullish Gartley pattern, indicating a potential reversal in the downtrend. During the recent downtrend, sellers were in control, pushing the price lower. However, as we approach the completion of the Gartley pattern, sellers are facing increasing resistance from buyers stepping in to defend crucial support levels. 🐂 Buyers' Resurgence: The formation of the Gartley pattern is a testament to the buyers' resurgence. They have been gradually regaining control, leading to the price forming higher lows in lower timeframes. Now, as we witness the bullish Gartley pattern's completion, buyers are expected to strengthen their positions and propel the price upwards. 💹 Technical Confirmation: The EMA 9 and 21 have crossed over, signaling a bullish trend reversal. This crossover adds to the confidence in the buyers' ability to push the price higher. Additionally, the RSI breaking above the 50 level confirms the growing bullish momentum and adds further weight to the buy signal. 🎯 Profit Targets: To capitalize on this opportunity, I have set my take profit levels strategically. My first take profit is set at TP1 = 0.6800, which aligns with a significant resistance turned support zone. TP2 = 0.68500 is my next target, considering the potential for a strong bullish move. Finally, my ultimate target is set at 0.69000, aiming for a breakout of the previous resistance level. Remember, successful trading requires proper risk management and sticking to your trading plan. 🛡️ Feel free to share your toughts in the comments section, follow me for updates and don't forget to press the like button if this insight was helpful 🚀
Long
by Thomas_Zito
14
🚀🎯 GBPJPY Bullish Momentum: Capitalizing on the Range! 📈Hey traders! Are you ready for an exciting ride on the GBPJPY forex pair in the 4-hour timeframe? 📈💹 Let's explore this fantastic bullish setup together! 📊 Range-Bound Market: GBPJPY is currently experiencing a ranging market, with strong support at 180.000 and a formidable resistance at 183.500. In this dynamic environment, traders can spot lucrative opportunities by buying the bottom and shorting the top. 🐂 Buyers in Control: The buyers have taken charge as the price recently bounced off the sturdy support level at 180.000 and formed a double bottom 🛡️ Moving Averages as Support: The moving averages are playing their part as reliable support levels during this bullish momentum. Their alignment reinforces the buyers' strength and provides additional confidence in this setup. 💹 Profit Target: My primary focus is on riding this bullish wave towards the top of the range. As the price approaches the resistance at 183.500, I'll closely monitor the market for a potential shorting opportunity or a breakout setup. Feel free to share your toughts in the comments section, follow me for updates and don't forget to press the like button if this insight was helpful 🚀
by Thomas_Zito
4
Copper Conundrum: Diverging Indicators Point to More DownsideThe last time we looked at copper was last October, and the trade played out nicely in our favor. Much has happened since then and we think another opportunity lies on the horizon now. Revisiting the same analysis now we observe the following… China, being the largest copper buyer, its currency pair CNHUSD traditionally shares a high correlation with copper. However, a divergence has emerged since May 2023. Moreover, copper's wide usage in manufacturing - from batteries to appliances and industrial machinery - makes China's import and export figures a good indicator of global economic health. These figures currently paint a gloomy picture, with YOY Exports & Imports pointing lower. Again, we notice a divergence between copper prices and these economic numbers. The Gold/Copper ratio, usually confined within a certain range, has recently tried to break higher. Despite facing resistance, the movement may still have momentum. Previous breaks upward have proven to be quite rapid. One way this could play out is if copper trades lower, the Gold/Copper ratio tends to trend higher. From a price action perspective, copper seems to be breaking out from a seven-month bull flag, inching towards the 4.00 price level. However, the significant resistance at 4.00 casts doubts on the breakout's success. Further fuelling this doubt is the emergence of a Simple Moving Average (SMA) death cross on the daily timeframe. On a shorter timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests slight overselling, while the overall price structure is encapsulated in a symmetrical triangle. Summing up, we foresee short-term downside for copper due to diverging macro factors from copper’s price and a downward trend in the dollar. Moreover, price action suggests overbought levels and looming resistance. CME has the Full-sized Copper Contract or the Micro Copper Futures which we can use to express this view, taking a short position at the current level of 3.904, stop loss at 4.10 and take profit at 3.55 the next level of support and subsequently 3.30 if the symmetrical triangle breakout happens. Each $0.0005 price move in copper per pound is equal to $1.25 for the micro copper futures and $12.50 for the full-sized copper futures. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
COMEX:HG1!Short
by inspirante
📉🦇Bearish Bat Pattern Sparks Market Fears on Dow Jones! 📉🦇After successfully bagging over +1000 points on a recent Nasdaq buy, it's time to switch gears and follow the bearish trend on Dow Jones. The bearish setup is crystal clear in the 1-hour timeframe, as price has formed a bearish bat pattern - a proven and reliable harmonic pattern with a high winning rate. The trend reversal has been confirmed by a bearish candlestick: a bearish engulfing, signaling that the late bulls have been trapped and the bears have taken control. The icing on the cake is the impending crossover of the 9 and 21 moving averages, which will intensify the selling pressure. Additionally, the RSI has hit a significantly overbought zone, further indicating a potential sharp fall ahead. I have my sights set on three take profit levels. First, I'm targeting 34150, where I'll be locking in some profits. Next, I'll be aiming for 33950 as my second take profit level. And finally, my target is set at 33650, as I expect a satisfying drop in price. Get ready to ride the trend reversal and make the bears dance to your tune! It's time to capitalize on the bearish momentum on Dow Jones! 📉🐻💰 Feel free to share your toughts in the comments section, follow me for updates. And dont forget to press the like button if you think this insight was helpful !🚀
OANDA:US30USD
by Thomas_Zito
24
📈💰 Gold Breakout Alert! Time to Ride the Bullish Wave! 🚀🔥Get ready for a golden opportunity! The bullish setup on Gold is shining bright in the 4-hour timeframe. After weeks of oscillation within a falling wedge, price has finally broken out! The ABC corrective wave is behind us, paving the way for a powerful impulse. I'm setting my sights on a target of 1940, where I'll be taking some sweet profits. But the excitement doesn't stop there! The ultimate target is set at 1970, a level that has proven to be a tough resistance for price in the past. Adding to the optimism, the RSI indicator has formed a confirmation with a bullish divergence. The bounce and subsequent break above the 50 level serve as a green light to open a buy position. It will be interesting to check the price action when the market opens and buy from here🌟💰📈 feel free to share your toughts in the comments section. follow me for updates and don't forget to press the like button if you think this insight was helpful🚀
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Thomas_Zito
1
🐻 Bearish Setup Alert:Harmonic Pattern Signals Sell OpportunityThe bearish setup on EURUSD is looking promising as price action reveals a potential trend reversal. A harmonic pattern, specifically the completion of the leg CD of a bearish bat pattern, indicates a high probability of a downward move. Moreover, a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern formed recently, reflecting increased selling pressure. Adding to the bearish case, the imminent crossover of moving averages suggests further downside potential. With these technical factors aligning, it's an opportune time to consider shorting EURUSD. For potential profit targets, we can set our sights on 1.08500 as the initial take profit level. Further downside targets include 1.07800 and 1.06900. It's important to monitor price action closely and adjust take profit levels accordingly. Stay tuned for updates as we track this bearish setup. Happy trading! 📉💰 don't forget to press the like button if you think this insight was helpful 🚀
by Thomas_Zito
1
🦘📈 AUDUSD: Double Bottom - Get Ready for a Bullish Rally! 🚀📈Traders, buckle up for an exciting bullish setup in the AUDUSD forex pair on the 4-hour timeframe. We have a compelling opportunity to join the uptrend as price forms a double bottom pattern, paving the way for potential profits. Let's dive into the technical analysis and uncover the enticing prospects this trade offers. The key to this setup lies in the formation of the double bottom pattern. This pattern serves as a powerful bullish reversal signal, indicating a shift in market sentiment. With the current setup, we have an opportune moment to enter a long position, setting a tight stop loss just below the key support level. Adding to the bullish case, the moving averages are now acting as support and are poised for a potential bullish crossover. This convergence of the moving averages enhances the reliability of this setup, providing additional security and boosting confidence in the potential upside movement. Our initial objective is to secure some profits as price reaches the neckline of the double bottom pattern, located at 0.71200. This level serves as a significant resistance zone, and a breakout above it would validate the bullish scenario. Traders can consider taking partial profits at this level to lock in gains and reduce exposure. But the excitement doesn't end there! We can set our sights on a larger target based on a harmonic pattern analysis. The completion of a harmonic Gartley pattern at point D awaits around 1.25200. This target aligns with the projected upward move in the pattern, providing traders with a compelling opportunity to ride the bullish wave. Confirming the upward momentum, the RSI indicator has broken above the 50 level, indicating a continuation of the rally. The sustained RSI reading around this level further supports the bullish bias and provides additional conviction for traders to consider joining the uptrend. So, traders, prepare yourselves for an exhilarating ride as AUDUSD embarks on a potential bullish rally. Seize this opportunity, keep a close eye on the price action, and manage your trades with precision. Remember, taking partial profits along the way can help secure gains and optimize your risk-to-reward ratio. Let's capitalize on this promising setup, leverage the bullish formation, and navigate the forex market with confidence. Get ready to embrace the bullish surge in AUDUSD! 🚀📈 Don't forget to press the like button if you think this insight was helpful 🚀🌟💪
Long
by Thomas_Zito
7
🐂📈 Seizing the Double Bottom: GBPUSD Bulls Ready to Charge! Our journey begins with the formation of a double bottom pattern, a powerful reversal pattern signaling a shift in market sentiment. Now, as price prepares to break the neckline, a prime opportunity arises to enter a long position with a tight stop loss. Keep a close watch for inside bar breakouts, where candlestick patterns offer a clear entry signal. Adding strength to this setup, the exponential moving averages (EMAs) are acting as solid support levels, with a potential crossover imminent. This convergence of technical indicators reinforces the security of our bullish thesis. But that's not all! Yesterday's bullish news on Sterling has further strengthened the probability of a bullish scenario. The release of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) revealed positive figures, indicating a robust economic performance for the UK. This positive development adds to the fundamental support for a potential rally in GBPUSD. Profit targets are a crucial aspect of any successful trade. In this case, I suggest taking partial profits when price reaches the neckline, located at 1.24500. This level holds significance and may introduce some resistance. However, our ultimate target aligns with the completion of a harmonic bat pattern, specifically point D, projected to be around 1.25200. Harmonic patterns offer valuable insights into potential price movements, enhancing the probability of a successful trade. Keeping an eye on the broader picture, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) further bolsters our bullish stance. Breaking above the 50 level and sustaining around this zone, the RSI indicates a continuation of the rally, supporting the case for an upward move. So, join the bullish ride and seize this exciting opportunity on GBPUSD! Dont forget to press the like button if you think this insight was helpful 🐂📈💪
Long
by Thomas_Zito
25
AUDUSD:Get Ready to Ride the Downward Wave! 🌊📉Traders, pay attention! An enticing bearish setup has unfolded in the forex market. AUDUSD is signaling a potential sell opportunity on the 4-hour timeframe, indicating a possible trend reversal. Let's delve into the technical analysis and uncover the exciting prospects this trade presents. My attention is drawn to the recent breakdown of the channel in which the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been fluctuating for the past two weeks. This breach of the channel serves as a clear indication of a reversal in the prevailing trend. Bears have seized control as they swiftly engulfed the last bullish impulse, asserting their dominance. Further bolstering our bearish stance are the moving averages 9 and 21, which have recently crossed over in a bearish manner. This crossover adds another layer of confirmation to our hypothesis, solidifying the potential for a sustained downward move on Aussie. The RSI indicator also lends its support to this bearish setup, as it currently hovers below the 50 level. This suggests that bearish momentum is gathering strength and the selling pressure is intensifying. Brace yourself for a potentially sharp decline in AUDUSD as sellers take control. To optimize my entry strategy, it would be prudent to await a retest of the 0.68300 level. This approach allows me to set a tight stop loss, maximizing the risk to reward ratio. My initial target lies at 0.67500, with an additional target at 0.66500. It's crucial to monitor the price action carefully and consider taking partial profits at each target level. Let's embark on this trading journey together and aim for success as we navigate the twists and turns of the financial markets! 🌊📉
Short
by Thomas_Zito
2
Seizing the Bullish Momentum with Fundamental Backing! 🚀📈Calling all traders! Get ready for a thrilling opportunity in USOIL (Crude Oil) as we present a compelling bullish setup that is further supported by fundamental analysis. This combination sets the stage for potentially lucrative gains! 💰💥 In the 15-minute timeframe, price retraced to the critical 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, known for its significance in trend reversals. The bounce from this level indicates the formation of a new higher low, reinforcing the bullish case. But wait, there's more! The chart also reveals the formation of a head and shoulders pattern, which adds further conviction to the potential trade. This powerful reversal pattern enhances the probability of success. Moreover, our fundamental analysis complements the technical setup. Recent market news indicates favorable conditions for a bullish move in oil prices. Positive developments, such as a significant decrease in crude oil inventories and growing global demand, support the notion of an upward trajectory. Additionally, the RSI indicator is currently hovering above the 50 level, suggesting strong buyer interest and an inclination towards further upside momentum. This alignment of technical and fundamental factors strengthens our confidence in the trade. Furthermore, we've observed a crossover of moving averages, serving as a confirmation of the bullish sentiment. This convergence of indicators further bolsters the case for a buy entry at the current price of 69.00. To manage risk effectively, it's prudent to set a stop loss below the right shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern. From our entry point, we have several enticing take profit levels on the chart: 69.50, 70.20, and 71.20. 🎯 This setup not only offers a high-winning rate but also a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, backed by both technical and fundamental analysis. Don't miss out on this exciting opportunity to ride the bullish momentum in USOIL. Wishing you successful and profitable trades! 🚀🌟 Don't forget to press the like button if you think this insight was helpful 📊📈
TVC:USOILLong
by Thomas_Zito
2
BNBUSDT Price, time & divergences.As a update about my current bear position on CZ coin as you can see by the link below. The price action is heading one leg downward to complete a wave 5 of a contracting ending diagonal, according to the Wave Principle. That seams a breakdown can be expected to the local demand, as we can see clearly on this chart. After broken, the trendline tends to be retested. All my projections are displayed. Technicals: * Chaikin Money + 100EMAx100MA cross; * ESCGO_LB; This H4 chart is showing a lot of correlations about price, time and divergences on Chaikin Money Flow in in conjunction of 100EMA & 100MA moving averages crossover plus regular and hidden divergences, which is my system I've used to finding turn-points. If in parallel with RSI, is possible to note a lot of divergences that only Chaikin oscillator can display. * In addition, an ABCD reciprocal (0.886:1.128) projection as an alternative projection.
Short
by firmestudio
1
VET/USD - My Longterm PlanVeChain update with my opinions and what i plan to do if my opinions are correct: Here is a closer look at the 1 day VET/USD chart: While VET did have a nice move up from $0.0152 to $0.032, that impetus is gone and VET is now making Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Notes: VET is still in its Descending Channel Pattern. VET is back in the Bearish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud. VET is under both its 50MA and 200MA levels. The 50MA has crossed back under the 200MA on this 1 day timeframe. If we look at the volume for VET/USD, it’s been very low since around July 2021 and has not really recovered. On this chart, i have added various Support and Resistance Lines as well as Areas of Interest as highlighted with the Black Dotted Lines with Yellow Shading. If we look at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF Indicator), we can see that the MF Line is still very near its 0.00 Base Line, a cross below the 0.00 Base Line will take VET into Distribution on this 1 day Timeframe. Note the the MF Line is still below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) Line. My longterm Hodl plan for VET/USD: I still believe we will see $0.0096 to $0.0084 especially when the USA finally admits publicly that it is in a Recession, which when it does, will mean it’ll actually be in a Depression. So if this recession plan follows through then i will be looking to buy in around $0.0096 to $0.0084 and longterm hold until it reaches back to the ATH of around $0.28 and then re-asses the situation. A successful Daily Candle close below $0.0152 will be my first confirmation that we may see below $0.01. With the potential oncoming of this world depression, if the only way out for the US is to start WW3 to counter BRICS, the loss of the Petro Dollar, the loss of sanction power and the growing +$32T of debt then i believe we could see $0.0057 to $0.0043. When the oncoming recession/depression pivots and the new Bull-Run starts, after a while, keep an eye out for when the Mainstream Media starts broadcasting to the public about huge Crypto Gains! When this happens you’ll suddenly have random family and friends who now want to jump into crypto because it has gone up 1000s of %! This will be the time to consider taking profit on any long term hold as all the newbies jumping on the band wagon will be providing EXIT LIQUIDITY to those who got in at a really low price. Once this happens, then the market makers will change direction and become Bearish as Bulls and Bears are the same people I.E they are the Market Makers. I have seen this happen twice now with the Crypto market, once in 2017 and another in 2021. As always, we must keep an eye on what BTC/USD is doing. Anyway, this is all just my opinion and i have other strategies in place for if we don’t see sub $0.01 again. I hope this post is helpful.
BINANCE:VETUSD
by TradingThroughTheLens
7
📈🚀 EURUSD Breaking Barriers: Get Ready for a Rally! 📈🚀Attention, fellow traders! Exciting times are ahead as EURUSD breaks free from its range, paving the way for a potential rally! Buckle up and get ready to ride the bullish wave as we dive into this enticing opportunity. The stage is set for an upward surge, with our first target set at 1.08100, followed by the second target at 1.08500. Picture this: the price breaking out of its range, fueled by increasing bullish momentum. The skies are clear, and the path to higher levels beckons. But wait, there's more! The bullish case gains further strength as we witness a retest and bounce on the upper structure of the previous range. This impressive feat turns resistance into support, setting a solid foundation for future price action. Now, let's incorporate a touch of fundamental analysis. Keep a keen eye on key economic indicators, such as interest rate differentials, inflation data, and geopolitical developments. Consider the impact of monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve on the EURUSD pair. (meeting this afternoon) Factors such as improving economic conditions in the Eurozone, potential shifts in market sentiment, and global trade dynamics may also influence the pair's performance. Stay informed and adapt your strategy accordingly, as the markets are ever-evolving. Please remember that trading involves risks, and the views expressed here are for informational purposes only. It's crucial to conduct your own research and consult with experienced professionals before making any trading decisions. Stay disciplined, manage your risks effectively, and maintain a well-rounded approach to trading. Get ready to witness the breakout unfold as EURUSD charts a new course. Dont forget to press the like the button if you think this insight was helpful ! 💪📈🚀 feel free to share your toughts in the comments section.
Long
by Thomas_Zito
2
Looks Like The Yin Did The Pounding TodayThis week has been very profitable. I have managed to learn how to stick to my trading plan. A lesson I have learned this week is to "get in, and get out", one, the market fluctuates according to the session, two, price is not going to match your account balance goals, and three, when in profit trail, and stop it. Proper risk management, as well as improper risk management has taught me about myself this week. I still have to learn when to get out. In this particular trade I set two purple psych levels. The bottom level is where my original stop loss was, securing $100 in this trade, but I allowed the trade to continue to run, and modified my stop loss at the top level. Why did I do this? From previous experiences, I have managed to stop myself out from more profitable trades, because I did not allow price to have enough room to breathe, so this morning, I decided to let price wiggle it's toes. Well unfortunately for me, I lost $35 profits, due to retracement back to my top psychological level, but the results are in! We set our stop loss, in profit, either way, and managed to grow our portfolio %37 today. I have officially earned my very first $250 ever on the markets. According to my trading journal, my account is now up 133.45% in the month of May. Learning how to trade has been the best decision I have ever made. Once I started taking this seriously, I am starting to witness the small results start to show: from learning price action, risk management, and fundamental analysis. There are so many elements into a being a professional day trader, and I am here for it. The biggest lesson I learned from this trade, was to cop, and blow. If I cannot am up $100, take the $100 and get the Freak out! A second lesson I have learned is how to simply read candlestick patterns. In conclusion, I'd like to share my trading journal entry.. DID I FOLLOW MY PLAN? Yes. I exercised price action Followed the trend Set my stop loss in key Psychological levels WHAT DID I DO WELL? 1. Let The Trend Be My Friend. 2. Traded the pair in correct session. 3. Exercised good risk management, by setting a stop loss. WHAT CAN I DO BETTER? 1. Enhance my confluences. 2. When Price Peaks, GET OUT! 3. No Revenge Trading WHAT DID I LEARN? 1. More Confluences In Higher Timeframe Increase Ratio Of Success. 2. Patience and Virtue 3. How To Identify Reversal Candlestick patterns. DID I PREPARE PROPERLY? YES, I entered a trade with a high lot size because of my confluences in my technical analysis. This time I set my price, doubled down, and wait for a confirmation.
Short
by Cashflowmarcofx
📈 4 Ways To Use The Moving Average📍 What Is a Moving Average (MA)? In finance, a moving average (MA) is a stock indicator commonly used in technical analysis. The reason for calculating the moving average of a stock is to help smooth out the price data by creating a constantly updated average price. By calculating the moving average, the impacts of random, short-term fluctuations on the price of a stock over a specified time frame are mitigated. Simple moving averages (SMAs) use a simple arithmetic average of prices over some timespan, while exponential moving averages (EMAs) place greater weight on more recent prices than older ones over the time period. Common moving average lengths are 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200. These lengths can be applied to any chart time frame (one minute, daily, weekly, etc.), depending on the trader's time horizon. The time frame or length you choose for a moving average, also called the "look back period," can play a big role in how effective it is. An MA with a short time frame will react much quicker to price changes than an MA with a long look-back period. In the figure below, the 20-day moving average more closely tracks the actual price than the 100-day moving average does. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
6
Does 10 Minutes Per Month Beat Buy and Hold?So far, I’ve been testing day trading strategies. Which you’d have to watch for hours per day for trading signals. Or automate. And after all that dang work, not one of them beat buy and hold. Ouch. Recently, I found a strategy claiming to beat buy and hold, without any of that hassle. They say you can run it manually and in only 10 minutes per month. Too good to be true? Let’s find out… Our Test The rules are so simple, you might chuckle… Ignore all S&P 500 price action for the whole month, until the close on the last day. If that closing price is above the 200-day moving average, go long (or stay long if you’re already in a trade). If it’s below the 200-day moving average, sell (or don’t get in if you’re on the sidelines). With that in mind, let’s look at our setup a little more closely… The Trading Truth Test Setup Since this is a monthly strategy, I used much more data than in previous tests… Market: the S&P 500 index (using SPY to trade it, assuming SPY existed decades ago and is exactly 1/10th the S&P 500 Index price) Timeframe: September, 1941 to April, 2023 Bar interval: 1 day (for the moving average, even though we’re only making trading decisions at the end of each month) Moving averages: 200-day exponential moving average Starting Equity: $ 25,000 Max % of Equity Per Trade: 100% (just like we would with buy and hold, we’re fully investing our capital) Commissions, fees and taxes. To keep things super simple, we’re assuming these are all zero. The Test Results The test ended up 152.4x to $ 3.81 million a 59% win rate. Pretty amazing, though that’s over several decades. The maximum losing streak was $ 46,384.74, or 18.4% (from $ 252,545.60). That said, the buy-and-hold return was up 403.0x, trouncing our test. Especially given the tax advantages from long-term capital gains. Note: I did this analysis in a spreadsheet, with exported TradingView data. If you see any errors, please let me know. What Test Tweaks We Could Make One tweak is looking at the slope of the 200-day moving average. If it’s not pointing up enough, I wouldn’t want to go long. We could also use some other indicators to see when a pullback is likely, for example, Bollinger Bands or Keltner channels. What would you test? And what else would you like to see tested? Comment below!
SP:SPX
by TradingTruthseeker
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA FINANCIAL SERVICES - Multiple Indicators 📊 Script: M_MFIN (MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED) 📊 Nifty50 Stock: NO 📊 Sectoral Index: NIFTY MIDCAP / NIFTY 500 /NIFTY FINANCIAL SERVICES 📊 Sector: Financial Services - Financial Services 📊 Industry: Finance - Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC) Key highlights: 💡⚡ 📈 Script is trading at upper band of Bollinger Bands (BB) and going to give breakout of it. 📈 MACD is giving crossover. 📈 Double Moving Averages also giving crossover. 📈 Volume is increasing along with price which is volume breakout. 📈 Current RSI is around 68. 📈 One can go for Swing Trade. ⏱️ C.M.P 📑💰- 229 🟢 Target 🎯🏆 - 259 ⚠️ Stoploss ☠️🚫 - 217 ⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk & Reward Ratio. ⚠️ Purely technical based pick. ✅Like and follow to never miss a new idea!✅ Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes. Eat🍜 Sleep😴 TradingView📈 Repeat🔁 Happy learning with trading. Cheers!🥂
NSE:M&MFINLong
by radha_23
2
PLSE Earnings Play Long Biotech Pulse Biosciences broke out today from a positive earnings report. Biotechnology stocks often burn cash on a slow growth cycle. This company is making money and so the expected reaction occurred. The volume indicator shows selling pressure in the lead-up to today's earnings. After the report, the reversal to buying pressure occurred nearly immediately. The MACD lines crossed under the histogram and then quickly reached the horizontal zero line serving as a confirmation. I expect a good follow-through next week. This may be a great penny stock to trade or even invest.
NASDAQ:PLSELong
by AwesomeAvani