3/30 Watchlist + Notes SPY - Interesting day on SPY. We said yesterday that the markets could realistically go either way, but we were watching more so to the downside due to the failed 2U formed on Monday that was followed by a 2D yesterday, and having that small bearish bias by simply playing what is in front of us vs using other reasons for bias. SPY ended up gapping up premarket and closing green on the day with little to no upside wick. Based on today's movement, I believe that we will see some continuation to the upside tomorrow. With that being said, we still have the gap created in premarket to fill. I think that we will test last weeks high at 402.49 either tomorrow or Friday, but I do think that it will happen at some point sooner rather than later. I am open to playing both sides tomorrow, but it will depend on whether we break today's high and test last weeks high, or if we break today's low and try to fill that gap to the downside. It is worth noting also that we are sitting on the weekly upper trendline Final thoughts: I am forced to have a bullish bias for tomorrow, which I believe to be about 75% valid. I still think there is a chance we fill that downside gap before pushing higher
Watchlist + Bias:
AMD - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
COST - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
PFE - 2-1 Daily: Slightly Bullish
GOOG - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
NFLX - 2-1 Daily: Bullish
JNJ - 2-1 Daily: Slightly Bullish
FDX - 3-1-2U Weekly: Bullish - Today we broke out of the 3-1 weekly setup to the upside. Looking to target 226.06
Main Watch:
JNJ and GOOG
JNJ - Weekly chart is indicating we have hit a low and are looking to reverse to the upside soon. Going into tomorrow, I am hoping to see us continue up to the 154.13 level before hopefully taking out 154.54
GOOG - GOOG has room to both sides. There is a large FVG on both sides as well that relate to my targets for each side. To the downside, we have a daily FVG at yesterdays low of 100.28. To the upside we have a FVG starting at yesterdays high of 103.00, and I also have a target at the 50% retrace of that upside FVG at 103.87. Both of these targets are easily attainable in my opinion for tomorrow depending on which side we break out to. I don't have a bias as to which side id rather play, but I think that it will more so depend on how the markets are moving as a whole tomorrow. Remember, with these 2-1 setups, we are looking to play WITH momentum and not fight it.
Yesterday's Main Watch:
MRNA: (Status:) Loser (Personally Trade?) No
MRNA broke yesterdays high within the first 5 minutes of market open, which is not what we were looking for. We were looking to play downside only, and because of this movement, we did not enter. It is worth noting that both times MRNA broke yesterdays high, it was almost immediately shot back down, which shows that we would have gotten smoked if we tried playing upside. This is a good example of why we look at longer time frames like the weekly and monthly to develop a bias, and then stick to that bias.
Watchlist Stats For The Week:
2/3 on SPY predictions
2/3 on Main Watch Plays
Top Winner: NVDA (75%+)
Personal Stats:
4/6 For The Week:
Overall Green/Red?: Green (Day and Week)
MRNA
3/29 Watchlist + NotesSPY - I had no real bias going into today's session other than mentioning last night that downside was more likely to come today because of the failed 2U daily created on monday. We closed slightly red after seeing a decent drop to the high 393 area, forming a weak bearish 2D. Going into wednesday (3/29), I am hoping to see some downward continuation to the 392/390 levels tomorrow to test that range. Key word is hoping. I remain neutral with my personal bias as we have no real clear direction this week still. Given that we closed very weak to the downside leads me to believe we can ultimately go either way tomorrow, but once again, playing what is in front of us I have to be looking more so to the downside.
Watchlist + Bias:
DIS - 2-1 Daily: Slightly Bullish
MRNA - 2-1 Daily: Bearish.
PEP - 2-1 Daily: Bearish
FDX - 3-1- Weekly: Neutral
Main Watch:
MRNA - Back in our main spotlight for the 2nd time this week is MRNA. There is a 2-1 daily setup that is within a bearish week with a lot of room to the downside due to a huge FVG on the daily. Looking to target Monday's low of 145.36 and the 50% retrace point of the original FVG at 144.72. Will only play downside and not upside if markets pump tomorrow
Also heavily watching FDX still as the 3-1 weekly has not broken out yet. Hourly chart stuck in a flat channel currently just consolidating.
Yesterdays Main Watch:
NVDA - (Status:) Winner (Personally Enter?) No
I mentioned we had downside targets and that I wanted to play with markets momentum. I missed entry due to being in class and not being able to trade, but I saw how it played out. Broke short entry level in the first few minutes of market open and dumped past our 260 target to the mid 258 level. Cons ran a little over 75% from entry and realistically I would have caught the full move due to the dump being so consistent and strong before reversing.
Watchlist Stats For The Week:
2/2 On Spy Predictions
2/2 On Main Watch Plays
Top Winner: NVDA (75%+)
Personal Stats:
3/5 for the week.
Overall Green/Red? Green
3/22 Watchlist + NotesSPY - Once again we were bullish going into today and ended up getting that upside movement we wanted. Tomorrow is FOMC so no real prediction for tomorrows movement other than some chop leading up to the news. As far as the news goes, I am leaning more on the bullish side but quite honestly that is purely a guess. Trading light tomorrow if I take anything, and not trading after news comes out.
Watchlist:
MRNA - 3-1: Bullish
BIDU - 2-1: Neutral
Main Watch:
MRNA - Nothing special about this setup other than it being a 3-1 daily setup and seeing that it has more room to the upside to test a daily FVG around 157.70
Top winner from yesterdays watchlist:
GOOG - 2-1 daily broke to the upside and had a gorgeous uptrend day. Calls ran just under 240% from where the long entry (yesterdays high) was
$MRNA What Up$MRNA started playing this since it was in the low $20s and then got rid of it at the start of this year. And IMO this is headed under $100. It will get a kick start when the next Pandemic happens and WHO rules lockdowns across the world. Regardless of the hype, I don't see any reason to take a position in this ticker. The only outcome is, EXIT for me :) Although it does have a promising technology but it will not be able to generate the kind of revenue it did with the Pandemic vax
MRNA Overbought Condition with Daily Bearish Wolfe wave SetupThere is a daily wolfe wave setup that triggered on December 15. Today at the open, MRNA opened inside day and traded +4% within 30 mins of the trading day. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line; however, the linear lines do not converge. The projected target is approx 167 which is represented as the red perforated line. The target price coincides with the 50 day ma as shown in the chart. Using the customizable gap finder indicator there is a larget gap left open from the Dec 12 kicker. It is likely to fill the gap within 2 weeks time.
MRNA being a good market sell?Moderna - 30d expiry - We look to Sell at 186.88 (stop at 198.38)
Price action continued to range between key support & resistance (120 - 190) and we expect this to continue.
Daily signals are mildly bearish.
Posted a Double Top formation.
An Evening Doji Star formation has been posted at the high.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Offers ample risk/reward to sell at the market.
Our profit targets will be 158.11 and 150.11
Resistance: 190.00 / 197.44 / 210.00
Support: 180.00 / 170.00 / 160.00
Daily chart
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
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MRNA IDEA HELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT MRNA is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the buyers from this area will be defend this LONG position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong buyers will be push up the market again..
UP TREND + Resistance from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this long trade..
IF you like my work please like and follow thanks
MRNA & BNTX are free callsDoji (W) on both stocks
Fundamentals are terrific:
Forward cash and equivalents make those stocks nearly free ( pipeline, production capacity, distribution networks priced at 0) :
- most contracts for 22 are already signed and/or partly cashed in (US still negotiating for MRNA),
- contracts signing for 23 has started as well as governments have to be ready ( access to the doses) in case of new Covid waves
- MRNA is developing a new concept (2 MOU signed) that i d call PAAS for biotech ( government would be entering into a 10 years agreement in exchange for benefiting of their own capacity and modularity of vaccines development and production). The point being like for SAAS and PAAS in IT pricing model would be recurring.
So fantastic defensive stocks in the current environment ( favoring cash, dividend and real assets ) and then we might get lucky as well !
Moderna, Inc. Flashes Bearish SignalsWe have a lower high, compare this past 16-November to 4-August.
We also have a clear bearish pattern in the form of a rising wedge.
Going by the candlesticks, we can spot some bearish signals there as well.
16-Nov. Doji is a bearish candle.
18-Nov. another bearish candle, confirmation of the previous one.
Today we gapped lower which gives strength to the bears.
A correction can easily form here.
CHANGE
MRNA needs to break and close above 188.65 for the bullish momentum to resume.
Trading below 185 spells doom.
Support levels/targets are marked in light blue.
Namaste.
Moderna showing strong upside to $258.00Moderna has broken up above the 200MA...
It looks good for upside along with the American rally with (lower than expected inflation rates, high GDP numbers and higher jobs).
We just need a strong breakout above the Rectangle Box Formation before we have upside to $258.00.
MODERNA has most likely bottomedModerna Inc (MRNA), a much discussed stock over the previous years, is having a +8% day, a very encouraging since following the rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) three days ago. What's more interesting is that we have seen almost the same pattern in the stock's all time lows in 2019.
As you see, the price since September has been on Lower Lows while the 1D RSI has been on Higher Lows, indicating a Bullish Divergence that is often seen on market bottoms before the price reverses. The very same Bullish Divergence was spotted from June 25 2019 until August 07 2019. It was also a remarkable 1D candle of +20% back then that signaled the sentiment shift. The price confirmed those bias when it broke above the 1D MA50. The break of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) a few days later opened the way for an incredible two year rise that was of course dominated by the COVID fundamentals mostly.
It is worth noting that at the moment the 1D MA200 is too close to the 1D MA50 as opposed to 2019, so best to have our mark on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) which has rejected both of 2022 uptrends in March 21 and August 04. It is exactly now where the 200.00 Resistance is (formed by the August 04 High). Also notice that the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) has made its appearance in October for the first time in history and provided the necessary Support for the early October push.
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Moderna, what goes up must come down...We all know this stock saw a large rise due to world conditions over the last few years, but since that has mostly come to and end, it's time to let MRNA rest for a while. This looks like a massive Head & Shoulders if I've ever seen one, this could bring price as far down as $30, but more than likely will find some major support at below $90 in the medium term. Will be carefully watching this one.
MRNA harmonic 886 retracement. Interesting i article I found on the web on retracements. Different pattern but the idea is the same context. "short XA retracement particular, I realized that the B point within a Gartley-type structure that was less than a 0.618 would almost always exceed the expected 0.786 retracement of the XA leg at the projected completion point. I showed Jim this new pattern — called “the Bat” — which used what I was calling a “deep 0.786 retracement.” I told him that executing at the 0.786 without regard to the structure was a critical mistake. Besides, the 0.886 retracement, when used in the correct pattern structures, reduced the amount of risk in previously “undifferentiated” Gartley set-ups by 10 percent."
old.harmonictrader.com
I hope you enjoy the TA.