MRO Bottoming ImprovementMRO is forming an intermediate-term bottom formation that is slowly improving.
MRO
MRO I was a week of mourning, but I'm ready to collect profitAfter a week completely off, I'm ready to collect some profit. Marathon Oil one of them. My TP was already hit and probably is going lower, but I'll keep an eye for a buyback around $14.76 or $11.78. My PV for this asset is currently at $24, while Wall Street consensus is about $26. However, at $21 would be my target.
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THE WEEK AHEAD: US MID-TERMS; SQ, MRO, ROKU, ATVI, HTZ, YELPUnless you've been living under a rock, you'll know that Tuesday is the U.S.'s mid-term elections. Polls will be open throughout the New York session and won't close until we're well into the Asian with polls closing on the East Coast first and then gradually progressing west through time zones. Actual results aren't likely to be known until at least 9 p.m. or so CST, so if you're going to play, you're potentially in for a long night. The only instrument probably worth looking at from a liquidity/volume standpoint for scalping around the time of election results is the E-mini S&P futures (or a corresponding proxy) and/or futures options, which is why I've posted a marked-up /ES chart here, which identifies fairly transparent, large time-frame horizontal support/resistance areas, so that when you drill down into lower time frames, you'll have those for context. Naturally, this is not as big of a deal as the general elections (if you recall, a really wild ride that was basically over by NY open), but may present some good scalping opportunities. On Tuesday night after NY close, I'll drill down a little more in time and mark up the chart a little further ... .
Aside from the elections, we've got some earnings on tap, too: OXY (96/34) and MYL (89/48) announce earnings on Monday after market close; LLY (82/29) and CVS (70/35) on Tuesday before market open; SQ (83/73), MRO (72/51), and ROKU (69/96) on Wednesday after market close; ATVI (85/46), DIS (73/26), HTZ (89/96), and YELP (83/72) on Thursday after market close. My preference in single name is for underlyings with a rank >70 and a 30-day >50, so I would lean toward playing SQ, MRO, ROKU, ATVI, HTZ, and/or YELP as volatility contraction plays. This is particularly nice here, since those all occur after the elections, which will allow the broader market to sort itself out first.
On the exchange-traded fund front: USO (100/32), XOP (70/37), EEM (73/26), IWM (65/24), and QQQ (62/26) round out the top implied volatility rank exchange-traded funds on my list.
Since I'm already in most of the exchange-traded funds (although I don't have any RUT on): CAT (78/36) already announced earnings, but still has some volatility left in it, as does NFLX (69/53), so I could see selling in a little premium in those if the post-election market just gives me nothing better to do ... .
Right on 61.8% of FibonacciNYSE:MRO
MRO stopped right over 61.8% of fibonacci level. Is it gonna continue or not? It doesn't have that much of a range that make the investors interested but at this level! I'm interested now. Last 5 minutes today volume went up crazy while it was going down, 60K. Almost three times the regular volume for other 5 minutes candles. Does the last 5 minute price action and volume imply that it's time for it to go down! It could be.
I have to see tomorrow move to make a decision about it. Need to have some confirmation on top of volume. I don't see the RSI overbought nor the stochastic showing some downward momentum.
4% Profits by Monday 4-9-18 // Take it or Leave it!MARATHON OIL CORP ($MRO)
See chart for the many numbers of reasons this will be successful. Virtually no over head resistance.
Weekly - Is a key indicator that this Asset will Make a Run! Weekly Chart in process of Elliot Wave 3
I think we test 61% retracement on FIB and wave 5 downI think we test 61% retracement on FIB and wave 5 down
MRO Short Term BearishOn November 07, 2017 MRO had a high wick reach $16.59 before closing down for the day. I believe this to be a good resistance line for now due to that same price range (give or take a few pennies) acting as Resistance in April 2017, March 2017, February 2017, November 2016, September 2016, August 2016, and September 2015; as well as acting as Support briefly in October and November 2015. Even though the past couple of days (November 09-10, 2017) have seen green candlesticks , they have been moving down in price. I purchased a December Put, Strike 17, on 11-09-17 for $1.65 (the spread at the time of purchase was $1.62-$1.65). The Stock price at time of purchase was $15.70.
$14.12-$14.16 has been a general line of Support in August 2015, Resistance in December 2015, Support again in September through November 2016, Support in March and May 2017, and then acting as Resistance for a couple weeks in October 2017. Due to that activity I believe it possible for MRO to retrace to that area again; and because of that I have targeted that area as my sell point. I expect it to take no longer than three weeks to reach that area of Support.
If you draw lines of Support at $14.12/$14.16 and Resistance at $16.60ish I can see a channel/rolling pattern from August to November 2016 and briefly from March to April 2017. If MRO does hit my estimated Support I will wait a few days to see if once again it rises in price to repeat that pattern and becomes ripe for a "double dip," or the opportunity to enter a Bullish/Call play almost immediately after exiting a Bearish/Put play.
MRO - Into the buyers zone.At the mentoring group we called it a "Mountain".
To me, this is just a buyers zone.
But it doesn't matter how you call it.
It matters, how you use it, and what you are aware of, IF you use it.
Because this zone could get washed in a blink...
That's why it is always a good idea to first observe, and then let the market yell at you, if there is a potential entry showing up.
My guess (...umpf...guesswork...very bad!) is, that it will trade into this zone, come back and play along with the rules of the forks.
This means, it will jump above the centerline, make a retest and then picking up the new direction to the north.
Let's see...let's be patient...let's observe.
P!
MRO Bullish Swing TradeRetest Gap. Increasing volume and all EMA's between entry and stop. Should bounce off one of the EMA's if triggered in.
MRO 18/8/16Looks like the bearish breakdown failed and it´s time for the bulls. Will wait for a pullback before looking for a trade. If it can pull back to support and bounce off of 10 SMA or 30 EMA it looks bullish.
MRO Marathon OilMR, getting near to a buy signal. A little further down then a touch of the 50sma will be the BUY signal. The RSI and %R are over sold. 61% retracement is extreme. Should be good to complete 3 drives to the top. Could run to $17.70
MRO -- COVERED CALL IDEAWith an implied volatility rank of 98 and an implied volatility of 79, MRO presents a good covered call opportunity here with a return on capital of greater than 10% if called away at the nearest short call strike (13).
Here's the setup (which, as always, may require tweaking after NY open, since these off hours quotes have a tendency to have wide bid/asks):
Buy 100 shares MRO at 12.59
Sell 1 Feb 19 13 short call
Entire Package 11.20/contract ($1120)
Max Profit: $180 (if called away at $13)
Notes: A word of caution is in order here with this one. The universe of downtrodden oil and gas plays is quite large and is growing (for obvious reasons). finance.yahoo.com This company -- along with a bunch of others in the sector and, in particular, those exposed to oil/shale sands operations (this one is) -- may continue to trundle into the dirt. Moreover, earnings is right around the corner (on 2/17) and they, in all likelihood, are going to continue to disappoint. Their last profitable earnings quarter was for the period ending 8/20/14 and the only bright spot has been that, for the last couple of earnings, earnings did not disappoint as much as expected ... .
