Nvidia or Broadcom? Who will be the winner ? How big is the custom chip market?
By 2027, the custom chip market is expected to reach $90 billion. What does this mean for Nvidia?
Nvidia vs. Custom Chips
In the custom chip (ASIC) sector, two major players, Broadcom ( NASDAQ:AVGO ) and Marvell ( NASDAQ:MRVL ), have overshadowed Nvidia. Since the end of Q2, they have outperformed the tech giant by approximately 30% and 50%, respectively.
With tech giants like Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), Google ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ), and Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) developing and accelerating the production of their own chips, the market has finally recognized the huge opportunities in custom chips.
How big is the custom chip market?
Based on comments from the two leading custom chip players, we estimate that by 2027, the custom chip market will grow to $90 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 60%. Earlier this year, Marvell offered a more conservative forecast, predicting that the market will reach $75 billion by 2028, but with early customer growth suggesting further upside potential. Broadcom’s forecast is even more impressive, estimating the market could reach anywhere from $60 billion to $90 billion by 2027.
Both companies have strong platforms. Marvell’s biggest customers are Amazon and Microsoft, and after gaining deeper insight into their growth, they suggest Marvell’s market prediction might be conservative. Broadcom’s top clients include Google, Meta, and ByteDance, all of whom plan to shift to clusters of one million XPU units by FY2027. Reports also suggest that Broadcom has secured two additional customers (potentially Apple and OpenAI).
What does this mean for Nvidia?
Nvidia’s stock price is currently consolidating, and even when using enterprise value (EV)/EBITDA as a metric, its valuation is now below that of Marvell and Broadcom.
Source: Bloomberg,Spear Invest
Investors now expect Nvidia’s market share to significantly decline by 2027, leading to slower revenue growth. However, the market has underestimated two key factors:
The strength of CUDA.
The yearly product improvement cycle.
I believe CUDA holds a powerful advantage that will reduce the pressure on cloud service providers (CSPs) to promote custom chips at scale. Given that the cloud market accounts for about 50% of the total market, I believe that capturing half of this market between 2027 and 2030 would be a major win for custom chip providers.
Currently, the market assumes, based on comments from Broadcom’s CEO, that most CSP revenue will flow to custom chip vendors, but Broadcom’s assumption may be overly optimistic. Furthermore, whether custom chips can keep up with Nvidia’s yearly product launch cycle remains to be seen—Nvidia’s new products consistently show significant performance improvements with each generation. Our best estimate is that Nvidia’s competitors are still on an innovation cycle of about 1 to 2 years behind Nvidia.
Source: Bloomberg,Spear Invest
Nonetheless, the AI industry chain, especially in the medium to long term, will continue to benefit. For example, AI + Generative Content (AIGC) companies like Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) and Unity Software ( NYSE:U ), AI + Software companies like Palantir ( NASDAQ:PLTR ), AI + Insurance companies like AIX Inc. ( NASDAQ:AIFU ), and AI + Financial companies like Block ( NYSE:SQ ) will all benefit.
MRVL
MRVL Marvell Technology Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the MRVL before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MRVL Marvell Technology prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 95usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-12-6,
for a premium of approximately $3.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
$SOXL Inverted Cup and Handlel (SELL NOW!)Grasping chart patterns is essential for market participants. This article explores the inverted cup and handle formation, a bearish signal that suggests potential downward movement.
The inverted cup and handle, also known as an upside-down cup and handle pattern, is a bearish chart pattern that can appear in both uptrends and downtrends. It is the reverse of the traditional bullish cup and handle pattern. The inverted formation consists of two main components: the "cup," an inverted U-shape, and the "handle," a small upward retracement following the cup.
SELL NASDAQ:NVDA AMEX:SOXL NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:AVGO NASDAQ:QCOM NASDAQ:MRVL NASDAQ:MU $TXN.
Lets BUY it again WHEN IT'S LOW guys.
Mark my word
MRVL Marvell Technology Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MRVL Marvell Technology prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 70usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-12-20,
for a premium of approximately $9.45.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) Analysis Market Position and Growth Drivers:
Marvell Technology, a leader in semiconductor infrastructure solutions, is set for substantial growth due to increasing demand across sectors such as game consoles, printers, enterprise workstations, and AI servers.
AI and Data Center Expansion:
A key driver for NASDAQ:MRVL is the rising adoption of AI technology, fueling demand for data centers—Marvell's largest business segment, which accounted for 40% of its revenue last year. As AI infrastructure spending increases, Marvell is well-positioned to benefit, enhancing its revenue growth and stock performance.
Technological Edge:
Marvell's products are critical for AI-optimized data centers, offering interconnects and data transfer solutions necessary for high-performance computing systems. The company's custom AI component business is expected to ramp up significantly in the latter half of this year, with high-volume production anticipated in fiscal 2026.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on MRVL above the $65.00-$66.00 range.
Upside Potential: With an upside target set at $103.00-$105.00, investors should consider Marvell's strategic position in AI and data centers as key drivers for future stock appreciation.
📊🔧 Monitor Marvell Technology for promising investment opportunities! #MRVL #Semiconductors 📈🔍
Marvell shares fell 11.33% on Weak Q1 Reports Marvell Technology ( NASDAQ:MRVL ) reported a significant increase in its data center division's first-quarter revenue, but this did not offset declines in other segments. The company warned in March that sales figures would likely disappoint, but said that its non-data center divisions should recover in the second half of the year. The total revenue for the quarter was $1.16 billion, narrowly above the $1.15 billion analysts expected due to strong demand for its artificial intelligence-related products.
Marvell ( NASDAQ:MRVL ) reported a wider-than-expected loss of $215.6 million, or 25 cents per share, as analyst estimates projected a quarterly loss of $196.6 million, or 20 cents per share. Last year, the company lost $168.9 million, or 20 cents per share, in the first quarter.
Marvel's ( NASDAQ:MRVL ) 87% jump in data center revenue to $816.4 million, largely fueled by its AI-related products, wasn't enough to offset declines in its other divisions, which ranged from 13% to 75% compared with last year. The company warned in March that the quarter's results would likely disappoint, but said the declines should be limited to the first quarter as businesses recover in the second half of the year.
Jefferies analysts raised their price target for Marvell stock ( NASDAQ:MRVL ) to $90 from $85, writing that recovery in the company's other divisions "should start to recover and layer on top of the AI business that currently acts as the primary driver of the stock." Marvell projects revenue within 5% of $1.25 billion for the current quarter, with a loss per share of 15 cents to 25 cents.
Technical Outlook
Marvell ( NASDAQ:MRVL ) stock is down 11.16% at $68.11 as of the time of writing trading below the 100- day Close Moving Average. The daily price chart shows a long Bearish Harami candle stick pattern which is a bearish reversal pattern.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) however, remains strong moving steadily giving hopes for buyers to delve in.
MRVL Marvell Technology Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold MRVL Marvell Technology before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MRVL Marvell Technology prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 72.5usd strike price in the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-3-15,
for a premium of approximately $8.30.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
MRVL has a melt-down trader reaction to mediocre earnings LONGMRVL on the 2H chart had been in a trend up since February 29th when it broke out of the
high volume area of the profile in a pre-earnings run . Earnings were reported and MRVL
more or less matched the analyst's forecasts. Price sold-off in the aftermath of trader
disappointment. I held a large position of both shares and options but sold off half of
the positions two days ago to capture some profits. I see MRVL as still above VWAP
and so in buying territory and now at a price level supported by the first upper anchored
VWAP line as well as the upper boundary of the high volume area. It is a strong stock which
I do not believe will make a full Fibonacci retracement. I will now add back into my
position half of what I sold a few days ago. and expect a bullish continuation. On a lower
time frame, I have guidance from the inside bars that price is printing in the after hours.
When regular trading arrives on Friday, I will buy call options for mid-April striking
$85 (OTM).
Marvell Technology Shares Drop On Weak Forecast Surged FridayIn the wake of Marvell Technology's ( NASDAQ:MRVL ) recent earnings report, investors find themselves at a crossroads, grappling with the reality of a weakened forecast and a sharp decline in stock value. The Santa Clara-based chipmaker, known for its contributions to cloud computing, automotive, and communications sectors, is facing turbulent times ahead, raising questions about its resilience and ability to navigate through the challenges.
The company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings matched Wall Street's expectations, but its guidance for the upcoming quarter fell well below analysts' estimates. With adjusted earnings predicted at 23 cents a share on sales of $1.15 billion for the current quarter, Marvell's outlook has left investors disillusioned and uncertain about the company's trajectory.
Marvell's CEO, Matt Murphy, attributed the soft forecast to weakened demand across various sectors, including consumer electronics, carrier infrastructure, and enterprise networking. Despite the gloomy short-term outlook, Murphy remains cautiously optimistic, hinting at a potential recovery in the latter half of the fiscal year.
One bright spot amid the dim forecast is Marvell's ( NASDAQ:MRVL ) strong performance in the artificial intelligence (AI) segment. Murphy ( NASDAQ:MRVL ) highlighted AI-driven growth in the data center end-market, with revenue soaring 38% sequentially and 54% year over year. Marvell's strategic positioning as a key player in the AI infrastructure space could offer a glimmer of hope amidst the prevailing uncertainty.
However, challenges lie ahead, particularly in the face of intensifying competition and evolving market dynamics. As technological advancements continue to reshape the landscape, Marvell must adapt swiftly to stay ahead of the curve. The company's success hinges on its ability to innovate, diversify its product offerings, and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
In the aftermath of the earnings report, Marvell's ( NASDAQ:MRVL ) stock witnessed a sharp decline, shedding more than 5% in after-hours trading but shortly spiked with over 4.57%.
As Marvell Technology ( NASDAQ:MRVL ) navigates through choppy waters, investors are closely monitoring its strategic initiatives and execution capabilities. The company's ability to weather the storm and emerge stronger will ultimately determine its long-term success in an increasingly competitive landscape. With uncertainty looming large, the road ahead remains fraught with challenges, but for Marvell, the journey towards sustainable growth continues.
Is MRVL overextended ? SHORTMRVL on the 60 minute chart certainly had an impressive run for two days gaining 16%.
The chart however shows the bullish candles are decreasing in range and price is more than
two standard deviations above the mean VWAP and far outside the high volume area of
the volume profile. Bullish volatility fell to close the trading week on Friday afternoon.
My trade plan is to watch MRVL for consolidation and then a retracement of its bullish
move. A cross of the faster green RSI down under the slower red RSI will be the bearish
divergence to be seen to consider MRVL for a short trade.
MRVL Marvell Technology Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MRVL Marvell Technology prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 57.50usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-9-15,
for a premium of approximately $3.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
MRVL fell after earnings beat & recovery REVERSALMRVL a technology stock beholden to the ebbs and tides of both the general markets
and the leaders of the tech sector fell on a mild earnings beat this is to say traders were
disappointed and responded with a 16% sell off from the pre-earnings run up.
I see MRVL potentially suitable for a retracement of half of the 16%. On the 30- minute
chart using both pivots as well as near and intermediate volume profiles I have marked
out important levels upside from the current market. Accordinly, there are three targets
I will close 50% of the position at the first 30% at the second and the remaining 20% at the
third. I see this as an 8-10% overall profit in a swing trade of about a week duration. If
the tech sector recovers next week from this current week, the profit could well be higher.
MRVL approaching significant supportMarvell Technology Inc. (MRVL) presently approaching significant support, able to absorb weekly selling pressures.
From here, (MRVL) can gain strength and push higher to channel resistance, eliciting gains of ~20% over the following 2 - 3 months.
A weekly settlement above this channel resistance would lead to a long-term buy signal into Q4.
Inversely, a weekly settlement below channel support would signal losses of 20% - 30% over the following 3 - 5 months.
Long Trade in MRVLMarvell is a leading semiconductor stock whose products are used heavily in artificial intelligence applications.
The stock surged 40% in two days following a good earnings report and shares have consolidated in a tight range ever since.
Shares tried to breach the low of the base on June 23, and we saw nice buying to support the price.
Volume remains low and price action is shallowing out nicely.
Consider buying on a break above the short-term pivot (dashed line on chart) at 61.50.
As long as the stock does not make a new low before then, you can use the June 23 low for a stop loss to risk roughly 8% on the trade.
MRVL - Breakout Falling Trend Channel🔹MRVL has broken through the ceiling of a falling trend channel in the medium long term.
🔹MRVL has broken the resistance at 52.82 of a rectangle pattern, which signals a further rise.
🔹The short term momentum of the stock is strongly positive, with RSI above 70.
🔹Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
MRVL DCA - Rectangle PatternCompany: Marvell Technology Group Ltd.
Ticker: MRVL
Exchange: NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Introduction:
Greetings, fellow traders and investors! Today, we're diving into the daily scale chart of Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL), particularly observing a potential rectangle pattern that has formed after a clear downtrend.
Rectangle Pattern:
The rectangle pattern typically represents a period of consolidation, where price moves within a range between parallel support and resistance levels. It can be a bullish or bearish signal, with the trend direction determined by the eventual breakout.
Analysis:
Marvell Technology's stock has been consolidating in a rectangle pattern for about 225 days, with the price currently above the 200 EMA. The upper boundary of this rectangle is at $49.30, while the lower boundary is at $35.67. Both these boundaries have seen two touch points each.
Our focus now is on observing if the price can breach the upper boundary. As of now, Marvell Technology remains on our watchlist, showcasing potential for future movement.
Should a breakout occur above the upper boundary, we could be looking at a price target of $67.87. This implies a potential price increase of roughly 27.5%.
Conclusion:
Marvell Technology's daily chart points towards a consolidation phase, characterized by a potential rectangle pattern. A valid breakout above the rectangle's upper boundary could set off a bullish trend, offering a promising long position opportunity.
As always, please conduct your own due diligence and consider risk management strategies before making investment decisions.
If you found this analysis insightful, don't hesitate to like, share, and follow for more market updates. Happy trading!
Best regards,
Karim Subhieh