To everything there is a season ...To everything there is a season ... a time to cast away stones and a time to gather them ...
Stock markets do not need a great economic environment to rise noticeably.
When reality succeeds in outperforming low expectations, a sustainable tailwind is created.
In this sense, the MSCI World Index managed to deliver a very good start to the year despite mixed data.
Given the abundant evidence that equity markets are "ahead" of the reportings, earnings performance is useless as an indicator of upcoming equity market performance.
Equity markets look ahead and price in the likely future of the next 3 to 30 months.
And as long as the "pessimism of disbelief" influences investor sentiment, equity markets will continue to receive tailwinds in the form of positive surprises.
Already at the beginning of 2023, the stock markets sent the first signals that the accumulated pessimism from 2022 was slowly subsiding.
As a rule, a sceptical phase follows, which may well last longer - and gives the stock markets a good chance to rise sustainably.
As long as expectations remain low, reality can surprise positively without much effort.
My thought on this: Maybe we are in such a phase right now...
It is possible that the current situation and isolated banking crises should be seen in this context. Don't let the panic reports drive you crazy, trade the market. Things do not look that bad (yet). It is possible that the opposite pole, the most favourable entry point, will be reached shortly.
->No trading advice, use your own judgement.
Msciworld
ETF PortfolioETF PORTFOLIO, TIME TO REBALANCE?
After accumulating heavily between May and July, the time to rebalance the ETF portfolio is approaching.
It has been a planting year, the partial harvest could come very soon. Despite the difficulties, everything is proceeding as it should, especially on the MSCI World, which has held up very well a complicated year like 2022.
The complete portfolio is up 12.5% after the last rebalancing, if we also take into consideration my trading strategy connected to it, we arrive well above 20%.
Not bad in terms of resilience in a year where my stock portfolio closed with a drawdown of -7.5%, supported by Apple and Amazon who underperformed anyway.
Partial sale target €79.50
For other assets ... well you know...
Happy trading
LazyBull
MSCI World EUR - where do you think it will go?Today we look at how the global economy (MSCI World Index in EUR) has performed in the past and try to derive a forecast for the future.
The medium and long-term trend is shown by the red and green dotted lines.
Since the future has not yet happened, all possible outcomes are still conceivable, but what is likely from today's perspective?
As far as I can see, that would be the light blue line.
What do you think?
EEM: Emerging Market MSCI (EM) : SELLEmerging markets equities had to clear many hurdles in 2022 but began to recover in the fourth quarter.
But technically, there are hurdles, The Red sloping line of 2021 is the prime example.
After the steep drop in equity markets overall in 2022, It is believed that emerging markets equities may be one of the most mispriced asset classes, with attractive valuations compared with historical levels.
A 15% drop cannot be ruled out...fundamentals are strong, but technicals will sadly rule.
Portfolio and ENI Take profit (+50%)War.
High, very high volatility.
These are times when stocks move from traders to investors.
So it is right to accept drawdowns, obviously not in leverage and weighted, having liquidity to mediate when this problem passes.
However, there are some "favorable" situations even in these times, which help to rebalance the portfolio and create liquidity.
This is the case of Eni, the main Italian energy company, with a strong correlation with oil (sold last week with a profit of 165%, see my previous article), which is obviously retracing, after hitting $ 120 per barrel...
Set a stop profit reached today with an overall profit of just over 50%.
I also rebalanced the very long-term portfolio, selling part of my benchmark energy ETF with a 144% profit. (ALL of these numbers are proven)
Of course not all that glitters is gold; I had to accept a heavy stop-loss on BIDU and PLTR (partial).
I added some more gold and MSCI World for the very long-term portfolio.
The advice I can give to those who are investing and swing trading at the moment is to remain liquid and enter only and only on very extreme levels, already well established through volumetric analysis.
Forget the technical analysis. You know what I think, but particularly in these moments, it is garbage.
Happy trading and God bless all those who are suffering from an absurd war. Of any ethnicity, nationality, or religion.
Peace.
LazyBull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA . These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.