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Microsoft (MSFT)

MSFT suppressed by the 3.000 level of the golden sectionMSFT suppressed by the 3.000 level of the golden section This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Microsoft stock in the past two years. The graph overlays the low point at the end of October 2022 against the golden section. As shown in the figure, Microsoft's stock has reached another new high this week, breaking through the highest point at the end of 2021! But the weekly pattern of Microsoft stock this week is a long shadow line, with the highest point precisely suppressed by the 3.000 level of the golden section in the figure! Based on last week's weekly pattern, Microsoft's stock market is likely to enter a contraction triangle consolidation state in the future!
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Think_More
QQQ: Looking Out for a 20-40% Pull BackThe NASDAQ100 is currently sitting at the 0.886 and 1.618 PCZs of big Bearish Shark and Bearish Butterfly patterns as the indicators hover around the overbought zones; we don't exactly have much confirmation yet that these PCZs will hold, but it seems like it wouldn't be a bad idea to position against the QQQ early on via some SQQQ monthly calls and perhaps getting Bearish on some of the top stocks within the index such as NVDA, TSLA, and MSFT. Being conservative, I will only be looking for it to come back to the common Fibonacci Retracement zones below, but it's also possible that this ends up being a macro top; for the time being, that doesn't really matter because as of right now, it looks quite Bearish. On a side note, the VIX also looks like it's been preparing to spike up for a few months now and the targets for such a spike are pretty massive, as seen here:
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by RizeSenpai
Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY JULY 13, 2023Key News: UK - GDP (MoM) (May) USA - Initial Jobless Claims USA - PPI (MoM) (Jun) Despite relinquishing some of its gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average concluded Wednesday's trading session on a higher note. This positive finish was primarily attributed to a decline in Treasury yields and a surge in the tech sector, fueled by data indicating the slowest inflation increase in more than two years. The market sentiment has been uplifted by optimism that the forthcoming rate hike, scheduled for later this month, could potentially mark the conclusion of the tightening cycle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a 0.25% climb, translating to a gain of 86 points. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq witnessed a robust increase of 1.2%, and the S&P 500 displayed a notable rise of 0.74%. DJI indices daily chart Nasdaq indices daily chart S&P500 indices daily chart In June, the consumer price index (CPI) registered a modest uptick, rising by 0.2% following a 0.1% increase in May. Additionally, the annual inflation rate eased from 4% to 3%, reaching its lowest point since March 2021. These figures suggest a reduced level of price pressures in the economy. While there remains an expectation that the Federal Reserve will proceed with a rate hike later this month, the outlook for additional rate increases beyond July becomes less certain. The uncertainty stems from the possibility of upcoming economic data revealing a continued deceleration in inflation. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jefferies, in a recent note, highlighted the importance of upcoming economic indicators in determining the trajectory of rate hikes. If indicators such as the Employment Cost Index on July 28, along with employment and inflation data released in August, continue to exhibit a slowdown similar to the recent Consumer Price Index data, it suggests that the rate hike scheduled for July could potentially mark the conclusion of the current cycle. In line with this sentiment, major technology companies, including Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META), experienced a rebound following a recent downturn. This recovery was fueled by a significant decline in Treasury yields, driven by the expectation that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are nearing their conclusion. GOOGL stocks daily chart MSFT stocks daily chart META stocks daily chart Microsoft's shares surged by over 1% as the tech behemoth made significant strides in the completion of its $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ: ATVI), the renowned game developer responsible for the popular Call of Duty franchise. The acquisition received a boost as a Federal judge dismissed the Federal Trade Commission's request to delay the deal, citing insufficient evidence to support claims of potential competition harm. This favorable development played a crucial role in driving Microsoft's strong performance in the market. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart The sell-off of the US dollar gained momentum after the release of the CPI data, leading to a rapid approach towards the 100 level on the dollar index. This consistent and significant movement has positive implications for global inflation dynamics. A weaker US dollar tends to drive down energy and raw material prices, which are often denominated in US dollars. Consequently, lower prices for these commodities can help alleviate inflationary pressures on a global scale. In contrast, a strengthening US dollar contributes to inflationary pressures worldwide. Therefore, the depreciation of the US dollar can provide relief in the face of such pressures. EUR/USD daily chart In the currency markets, notable movements were observed. The EUR/USD pair experienced a surge, reaching the 1.1150 level, indicating a strengthening of the Euro against the US dollar. Similarly, the GBP/USD pair surpassed the significant 1.30 level, signaling a rise in the British pound against the US dollar. Conversely, the USD/JPY pair extended its decline, falling below the psychological level of 140, implying a weakening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. These fluctuations highlight the dynamic nature of the currency markets and the interplay between different currency pairs. USD/JPY daily chart The anticipated release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for June today is expected to provide further insight into the global economy's disinflationary trend. Forecasts suggest a significant deceleration in the headline PPI, dropping from 1.1% in May to 0.4% in June. The core PPI is also projected to experience a more modest slowdown, declining from 2.8% to 2.6%. The weakening figures from the PPI may have implications for future Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, indicating a continued disinflationary environment. This reinforces the notion that the forthcoming rate hike in the United States will likely be the final one in the current cycle. In summary, the June PPI numbers are expected to confirm the prevailing disinflationary trend in the global economy. The projected slowdown in PPI figures suggests potential effects on future CPI data and supports the belief that the upcoming rate hike will be the last one.
by FOREXN1
11
FTC Appeals to Block Microsoft Activision MergerI am providing a crucial update regarding the recent news of the Federal Trade Commission's (FTC) decision to appeal against the proposed merger between Microsoft and Activision. This development has significant implications for the tech industry, particularly for those who have invested or are considering investing in Microsoft stock. The FTC's decision to appeal the merger indicates that regulatory authorities are scrutinizing the potential consequences of this consolidation. While mergers and acquisitions can often lead to positive outcomes, such as improved products and services, it is essential to approach this situation cautiously, considering the potential risks and uncertainties ahead. As tech traders, it is crucial to carefully evaluate the potential impact of this appeal on Microsoft's stock performance. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the appeal, coupled with potential delays or even the possibility of the merger being blocked, could significantly influence the company's stock value in the short to medium term. Therefore, I strongly advise you to exercise prudence and consider holding off on buying Microsoft stock until further clarity emerges regarding the outcome of the FTC's appeal. By doing so, you can better protect your investment and mitigate potential risks associated with this merger. It is important to understand this is not financial advice but rather an alert to the potential implications of the FTC's appeal on Microsoft's stock performance. As always, I encourage you to consult your financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. In conclusion, the FTC's decision to appeal the Microsoft-Activision merger has introduced an element of uncertainty into the market. By adopting a cautious approach and refraining from immediate stock purchases, you can better position yourself to make informed investment choices once more clarity on the situation emerges.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by bryandowningqln
Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY JULY 07, 2023Key News: USA - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) USA - Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) USA - Unemployment Rate (Jun) During Thursday's trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a decline as robust job market data sparked expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This development subsequently led to a surge in Treasury yields, which raised concerns among market participants. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a notable decrease of 1.1%, resulting in a loss of 366 points. Similarly, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 also faced declines of 0.8% and 0.8% respectively. NASDAQ, SPX, and DJI indices daily charts Amidst the broader market decline, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) bucked the trend and achieved a gain of nearly 1% driven by optimism surrounding its advancements in artificial intelligence (AI). Morgan Stanley, a prominent financial institution, expressed confidence in Microsoft's position within the software industry, particularly in relation to the projected $90 billion growth opportunity in generative AI by fiscal 2025. In light of this positive outlook, Morgan Stanley increased its price target on Microsoft from $355 to $415, indicating a favorable investment potential for the company. Microsoft stock daily chart Despite the launch of its Twitter competitor app called Threads and the announcement by Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg that it had garnered over 30 million sign-ups since its recent introduction, Meta (formerly known as Facebook) faced a reversal of its early-day gains. The company's stock failed to maintain its upward momentum, and the gains dissipated as the trading session progressed. The market response to Threads and Meta's overall performance suggests that investors and traders may have reacted differently to the news, leading to the subsequent decline in the stock price. Meta Platforms stock daily chart In the Eurozone, inflation expectations for the medium term experienced a decrease in May. The gauge measuring the 12-month expectation dipped from 4.1% to 3.9%. Despite this decline, the long-term (three-year) inflation expectations, which hold greater significance for the European Central Bank (ECB), remained unchanged at 2.5%. This level is notably higher than the ECB's target inflation rate of 2%. The latest flash core Consumer Price Index (CPI) estimates for June further strengthen the argument for proponents of tighter monetary policies within the ECB. These estimates provide substantial justification for those who advocate for a more stringent approach to monetary policy, given that inflationary pressures persist in the Eurozone. The ECB, as the central bank responsible for maintaining price stability, closely monitors inflation expectations and aims to keep them in line with its target. The fact that long-term inflation expectations remain above the ECB's target suggests that there may be a need for increased vigilance and potential policy adjustments to curb inflationary pressures. The divergence between medium-term and long-term inflation expectations underscores the complexity of managing inflationary dynamics in the Eurozone. The ECB will need to carefully assess economic data, including CPI estimates, to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy and strike a balance between supporting economic growth and maintaining price stability. EUR/USD daily chart Today, the economic calendar in the Eurozone is relatively light, implying that the movement of the EUR/USD exchange rate will primarily be influenced by the market's reaction to data releases from the United States. The market's response to US data is of particular significance, as it has a notable impact on shaping the direction of the EUR/USD exchange rate. Positive data releases from the US could strengthen the US Dollar and potentially lead to a decline in the EUR/USD pair, while weaker-than-expected data could exert downward pressure on the US Dollar, potentially favoring an upward movement in the EUR/USD pair. Additionally, the market remains highly sensitive to price-related developments. In this context, there is ongoing concern regarding the Bank of England's aggressive tightening expectations. Speculation suggests that the BoE could implement a significant 140 basis point increase in interest rates by January 2024. This projection, if realized, raises the possibility of a reassessment in the market. If investors revise their expectations and perceive the tightening as too aggressive or potentially detrimental to economic growth, it could pose downside risks for the British Pound. Consequently, the GBP/USD exchange rate could experience downward pressure. GBP/USD daily chart The EUR/GBP pair has witnessed a decline over the past two sessions; however, it may find support at its current levels and potentially make a move towards the 0.8600 mark once again. This shift in the pair's direction could be driven by the potential threat of a repricing of the previously overbought British Pound, influenced by the actions of the Bank of England. The recent weakening of the EUR/GBP pair suggests that the Pound has gained strength against the Euro. However, the current levels may act as a support zone, potentially leading to a reversal in the pair's direction. If the support holds, it could provide an opportunity for the EUR/GBP pair to regain some ground and move towards the 0.8600 level. The potential repricing of the Pound is a significant factor that could influence the pair's movement. If market participants perceive that the British Pound had become overbought or overvalued in relation to its fundamentals, they may adjust their positions accordingly, leading to a corrective move in the currency. This adjustment could contribute to a potential reversal in the EUR/GBP pair, benefiting the Euro and causing the pair to move higher towards the 0.8600 mark. EUR/GBP daily chart Yesterday's market sell-off was primarily triggered by the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve, which revealed a greater inclination for further tightening of monetary policy than previously anticipated. This direction gained further momentum with the release of strong employment-related data, namely the ADP payrolls and ISM services reports, which indicated that the US labor market remains robust and is expected to continue performing well. The ADP payrolls report for June showcased an impressive addition of 497,000 new jobs. However, it is important to note that a significant portion of these positions were in lower-paid service roles, which could have implications for wage growth and overall economic recovery. In addition to the employment data, the prices paid component of the ISM services report indicated a slowdown, reaching its lowest level in three years. This decline in price pressures suggests that inflationary pressures might be easing, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding future monetary policy actions. The combination of the Federal Reserve minutes highlighting a stronger inclination for tightening, along with positive employment data and easing price pressures, contributed to the market sell-off observed. Investors and traders reacted to these factors, reassessing their positions and adjusting their expectations accordingly. US Employment Change The resilience of the labor market presents a challenge for the Federal Reserve in its pursuit of achieving its target inflation rate. Despite the possibility of a potential decrease in headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 3% in June, the task of returning inflation to the desired level becomes increasingly difficult. Today's release of the US nonfarm payrolls report for June has the potential to further reinforce optimism about the US economy. A strong jobs report would provide evidence of a robust labor market, indicating economic strength and potential future growth. However, there is also a concern that such a positive report could lead the Federal Reserve to overestimate the economy's resilience and prompt them to raise interest rates more aggressively than necessary. The market has already priced in these expectations, as reflected by the recent rise in yields. The anticipation of a stronger economy and the possibility of more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have contributed to an increase in yields. This pricing-in of expectations suggests that there is a level of caution in the market regarding the potential actions of the central bank and the impact they may have on various sectors. Balancing the need to support the labor market with the goal of achieving the desired inflation rate remains a challenge for the Federal Reserve. The nonfarm payrolls report for June will be closely watched by market participants and policymakers alike, as it has the potential to shape future monetary policy decisions and market expectations. As always, it is important to monitor economic data releases, central bank statements, and market sentiment to gain a comprehensive understanding of the current landscape and make informed decisions regarding investments and trading strategies.
by FOREXN1
9