Cloud growth slows; market focuses on revenue from ChatGPT.Microsoft (MSFT.US), which ranks second in market capitalization in the U.S. stock market, will announce the results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2023 on April 25, EST after the U.S. stock market. Analysts generally expect Microsoft's Q3 revenue to be about $51.1 billion (up about 4% year-over-year), and GAAP earnings per share to be about $2.24, compared to $52.75 billion and $2.32 in the previous quarter.
In terms of beating expectations, Microsoft's performance has rarely disappointed investors. In the past 12 quarters, revenue has exceeded analyst consensus estimates 10 times, and earnings per share (EPS) have exceeded analyst consensus estimates 11 times. Therefore, many investors expect that although Microsoft's Q3 performance is slightly weak, the probability of exceeding expectations is very high.
The Azure cloud business remains crucial, but the growth rate will likely slow down again. Analysts predict that Microsoft's intelligent cloud business growth will slow sharply to an increase of 15%-19%.
Investors are focusing on the revenue brought by AI, with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella emphasizing the importance of ChatGPT-led AI technologies. The company's investment in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, has generated significant interest in the potential growth of Microsoft's Bing search engine. As a result, Microsoft's stock has risen by over 19% for the year, outperforming both the S&P 500 Information Technology index and the S&P 500 index. Investors' attention is primarily focused on Microsoft's Bing search engine and its potential for long-term growth.
The short trend is bearish, but the mid-range trend is still in uptrend.
Microsoft (MSFT)
QQQ Falling Wedge Pattern | MSFT GOOGL Earnings Prediction | - NASDAQ:QQQ falling wedge pattern is about to break likely break tomorrow.
- QQQ & AMEX:SPY still trading in the same tight range for 3 weeks likely breaking this week with all the big tech earnings
- NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:GOOGL Earnings report tomorrow AH
$QQQ Watch for a Key BreakNASDAQ:QQQ eyes on tech earnings (MSFT, META) this week. PA distributing like SPY between critical levels, but currently looking bearish after failing to break out of pennant. Both need to break respective pivot points for continued downside pressure to bottom TL.
Positioning: LT Short
MSFT - take profit before earnings?NASDAQ:MSFT reports after close this Tuesday. Everything that I see suggests that price is at an inflection point, and likely due to pullback. I expect that this earnings release will need to be a beat, communicate progress on AI, and provide strong forward guidance for additional upward continuation in the near term.
While it's still 19% off of its all time high, MSFT has had strong performance YTD. It's been a clear favorite in the AI narrative with its investment in ChatGPT and potential for integration across its products. Anyone dismissing AI as a fad needs to sit back and look at the big picture. It's coming at us quickly and will be transformational. Every tight labor market in economic history has been followed by adoption of workforce productivity and automation.
The TA suggests that MSFT is over extended in the short term. It's far above its 55EMA, RSI shows recent bearish divergence, MACD and leading MACD have rolled over, and price has been hovering at the 0.5 fib retrace from ATH and dense volume profile. In addition, we can see that recent price movement is supported entirely by short term inflows as long term positions have gradually drawn down. The longer term channel doesn't provide as much clarity, but any number of ways that I draw the fib time zones indicate that this is a time period for a shift in sentiment.
While this isn't a company to bet against, I'm planning to take some profit prior to earnings and will look for opportunities between FWB:250 -265 for accumulation. A sustained movement above $295. would suggest further upside continuation.
Market Outlook Analysis | Earnings Prediction | Support & Resist- QQQ Megaphone still in place
- NASDAQ:QQQ SKILLING:NASDAQ trading within 3 weeks range 320-312 area, likely breaking Tuesday
- Tuesday NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:GOOGL Earnings prediction
- NASDAQ:AAPL broke out without much follow through, historically AAPL dips into earnings or after earnings if it moves up alot into it.
- advertising companies dont do well during recessions.
- AMEX:SPY still healthy daily uptrend that may change next week
- still holding my AMEX:SOXS ( NASDAQ:SOXX short )
Everything you NEED to KNOW | $QQQ & Big Tech | KEY RESISTANCE |- Resistance levels for NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:GOOGL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TSLA
- double megaphone pattern on NASDAQ:QQQ likely breaking smaller one tomorrow
- most big techs are trading under resistance expect AAPL if no one follows AAPL its likely coming back down.
- i am more bearish here due to this kind of indecision whip saw sometimes marks a temporary top.
- Detailed Trade analysis of my NASDAQ:SOXX short (in AMEX:SOXS )
MICROSOFT Cup and Handle targeting $320.Microsoft (MSFT) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the November 04 Bottom. Supported by an Inner Higher Lows trend-line, we can even see a Rising Wedge forming. Now however, it will face the most important Resistance of this uptrend, the 294.50 of the August 15 High (just below the 0.618 Fibonacci).
If rejected, we may see a Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern materializing, which can pull the price back down to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), even the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). We remain bullish on MSFT but based on our long-term strategy for stocks, we will welcome such pull-back and buy it. Our next target is on the 0.786 Fibonacci at $320.
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$QQQ & Big Tech $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT Future Direction at Resistance- NASDAQ:QQQ gap up double rejection from premarket highs and bear took over first hour then complete sideways into end of day
- NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:AMZN all rejection from resistance today. lets see if bears can follow through tomorrow
- NASDAQ:NFLX earning had weak guidance
- NASDAQ:TSLA earnings tomorrow AH
- still holding my NASDAQ:SOXX short ( in 3x AMEX:SOXS )
Is it Worth Buying MSFT Today ?Microsoft Corporation, the American multinational technology company, has been one of the most prominent companies in the tech industry. Founded in 1975, the company’s market capitalization was $2.15 trillion, as of April 18, 2023. The company has had a strong revenue growth, reaching $198.27 billion in 2022, with projections of $262.57 billion in 2025. This growth has been fueled by several products, including Windows, Office Suite, Xbox, and LinkedIn, among others.
The company’s financial statements show strong performance, particularly in revenue, with an impressive compound annual growth rate of 13.3% between 2017 and 2022. The company has also maintained a good profitability level, with an average EBIT margin of 41.4% between 2017 and 2022. However, the company’s net income margin has been fluctuating between 2017 and 2022, reaching its highest at 36.5% in 2021 and its lowest at 31.0% in 2018.
The company's valuation ratios have been at reasonable levels over the years. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has ranged from 26.6x in 2022 to 35.3x in 2020. The P/E ratio is expected to reach 23.0x in 2025. The price-to-book (P/B) ratio has ranged from 11.5x in 2022 to 14.3x in 2021, and it is expected to reach 6.54x in 2025.
Microsoft Corporation's enterprise value (EV) to revenue ratio has also remained reasonable, ranging from 9.4x in 2022 to 11.7x in 2021, while its EV to EBITDA ratio ranged from 19.1x in 2022 to 24.1x in 2021. The company's enterprise value over free cash flow (EV/FCF) ratio was at 28.6x in 2022, and it is expected to reach 22.6x in 2025.
The company has a strong balance sheet, with net cash position ranging from $54.98 billion in 2022 to $135.17 billion in 2025. The company's free cash flow (FCF) margin has been reasonable, ranging from 32.9% in 2022 to 34.0% in 2025. Furthermore, Microsoft has maintained high return on equity (ROE) ratios of over 30% since 2018.
In light of the above financial performance, it is not surprising that analysts have a positive outlook for the company's future. They estimate that the company's net income will increase from $92.49 billion in 2025 to around $ billion in 2027, while the earnings per share (EPS) will reach $14.4 in 2027, according to the consensus of Wall Street. Moreover, the company's management has a history of generating high shareholder returns, primarily through share buybacks and dividends. The company’s dividend yield has ranged from 0.83% in 2021 to 1.13% in 2025, and it is expected to remain stable in the future.
Overall, Microsoft is a highly profitable and financially stable company, with strong growth potential in its cloud computing and artificial intelligence segments. While its current P/E ratio of 26.6x may seem relatively high compared to historical averages, it is still within reasonable range for a tech company with its growth prospects. The company's strong net cash position and negative leverage ratio further demonstrate its financial stability.
In conclusion, I believe that Microsoft is a strong investment opportunity for long-term investors. While short-term volatility and market fluctuations are always a possibility, the company's financial strength and growth potential make it an attractive option. With its continued investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence, Microsoft is well-positioned for success in the rapidly evolving technology landscape.
Big 6 Megacaps gaining all the money flow....Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta. these are the 6 stocks in the SPX that have been seeing all the moneyflow.
A concentration of capital in a few names does not make for a healthy stock market.
It leaves the markets vulnerable to a bigger decline if money is so concentrated in a few names.
the S&P500 is on the verge of a breakout but these massive names are at major resistance.
Without these names continuing their ascent, the SPX will likely not breakout.
For Me MSFT Looks Bullish As It is Shown on the chart I think $MSFT is going to go up to reach 262$ in the Mid-term and to 280$ As a next target
Keep in mind that it has an earning forecast today ( and I think it will be positive ) as appears on the price action on the chart.
This is my Humble opinion
Please left a comment about What do you think
AI - Running Away From The NazzyAn AI index, comprised of:
Shown in Blue
Google
Microsoft
NVIDIA
C3.AI
Nasdaq Shown in Orange
We see that they have broken away from the returns offered by the Nazzy Tech Index
Bottom of the Graph:
Spread between the above defined AI index and the Nazzy.
Has reached its All Time High..
Traders would have earned an additional 20+% by investing in the AI index in lieu of the Nazzy
Mind you, these companies have Zero additional profits resulting from AI, at this time.
How to profit from this?
Accepting ideas.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) with a lack of trend strengthMicrosoft Corporation (MSFT) is one of the leading technology companies in the world. As a top stock broker expert, it's important to provide a detailed analysis of the company's performance and prospects for investors.
At the time of writing, MSFT's stock price is $291.57 with a change of 0.94% or $2.72. The company's 1-month high is $292.08, while the 1-month low is $245.73. These numbers indicate a stable and consistent performance from the company in the short term.
The oscillators rating for MSFT is neutral, while the average directional index (14) is 39.19, suggesting a lack of trend strength. The volume for the stock is 9,817,306, and the volume*price is $2.86 billion. The awesome oscillator is 7.66, and the average true range (14) is 4.12. The commodity channel index (20) is 133.02, and the MACD level (12,26) is 4.75 with the MACD signal (12,26) at 4.79. The momentum (10) is 7.48, and the relative strength index (14) is 66.35.
The stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) is 84.78, while the stochastic %D (14, 3, 3) is 76.09. The aroon up (14) is 100, and the aroon down (14) is 0. The bull bear power is 10.07, and the parabolic SAR is 280.78. The simple moving average (10) is 286.93, with a moving averages rating of strong buy. The pivot Fibonacci P is 283.18, and the Ichimoku conversion line (9,26,52,26) is 287.05.
In terms of performance, MSFT's YTD performance is 19.96%, while its 5-year performance is an impressive 220.30%. The company's sector is technology services, and its 1-year beta is 1.15. The 3-month high is $292.08, and the 3-month low is $226.41.
MSFT's exponential moving average (20) is 282.96, its exponential moving average (50) is 274.24, and its exponential moving average (200) is 258.37. The exponential moving average (30) is 279.66, the exponential moving average (5) is 288.10, and the exponential moving average (100) is 265.58.
In summary, MSFT has shown consistent performance in the short term, with a lack of trend strength. The company's long-term performance is impressive, with a 5-year performance of over 200%. MSFT is a technology services company with a beta of 1.15, indicating a higher level of risk compared to the market average.
Reversal?Potential reversal identified based on August price action.
We are at a tipping point for tech.
Weekly technicals are oversold.
MACD monthly remains negative.
Jobs report and further Fed hikes may amplify this technical analysis may tip the scales and send tech plummeting.
Good luck,
Opinion - not financial advice
MSFT Microsoft to 290 by JulyPrice action looks like this could be a cup and handle breaking out through the $165 area. Lots of important economic signals coming in the next 2 week which, if good, could be a boon for markets and especially blue chip technology. MSFT is one of the strongest looking stocks of them right now in my opinion. Out on two closes under $140 looking to see this test $290 area when I would set a hard stop order to $280 and let it ride.