Microsoft (MSFT)
MSFT - Getting close to major resistance.NASDAQ:MSFT is up 19% over the last month and is now coming to some major resistance.
We have the Double 1.618% levels from the previous 2 highs plus the 61.8% level from the ATH.
The measured ABCD is up just above 300 which is also a major FIB number 3.
We have just gone past equal tops in time.
If its similar to the last retracement then we should be looking at a move back to 250-270.
Big week ahead with a major turn point coming on Tuesday.
Enjoy the week.
MSFT - Broken Ceiling Falling Channel- MSFT has broken the ceiling of the falling trend in the medium long term, which indicates a slower initial falling rate.
- MSFT has broken a resistance level in the short term and given a positive signal for the short-term trading range.
- In case of a negative reaction, the stock has support at approximately 277.
- Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price
*Chart Pattern:
DT - Double Top | BEARISH | RED
DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | GREEN
HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | RED
REC - Rectangle | BLUE
iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | GREEN
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
What's going on $VIX?What in the world is going with TVC:VIX ?
Was short term bearish, was right (not posted here, sorry, see our profile)
However, we made case for longer term scenario
NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:AAPL & others have PE 30+, crazy
BUT #StockMarket = IRRATIONAL
SP:SPX really looks like top retest is in play
May is 4th best month over last 20 years
Aprils IS the best month coming in @ 2.5%, & looking to close there again. Over 80% win in last 20 years!
#stocks
NASDAQ - Expecting a deeper pullbackHi there, traders!
After yesterday’s drop, the U.S. stock market got a breather on Tuesday evening as Big Tech earnings began to roll out, led by better than expected reports for Google and Microsoft.
Looking at things from a technical perspective, we do anticipate the price to continue dropping today due to some key trends on the Daily and 4H timeframes. If we see a consolidation underneath the 4H trendline, it’s likely that the price will continue to drop.
Remember, today is an important day for earnings reports, with Boeing reporting before the opening bell, and Meta and eBay set to report after the market closes. These reports have the potential to move the market, so keep an eye out!
We’ll be keeping a close watch on everything and will update you in the section below if anything changes. And as always, trade with care and let us know if you have any questions or concerns!
$SPY pre-market Resistance Rejection | $QQQ megaphone | $META ER- AMEX:SPY rejected from its pre-market highs and couldn't get over it then bears took over.
- NASDAQ:QQQ forming another megaphone pattern on 4h time frame
- NASDAQ:META Beat bullish earnings reaction
- NASDAQ:GOOGL fades all of its earnings gains and went red NASDAQ:MSFT held its gains.
- NASDAQ:AMZN earnings report tomorrow AH
$MSFT Analysis, Key Levels & TargetsNASDAQ:MSFT Analysis, Key Levels & Targets
I like MSFT… It’s just that I’m a bear at these levels…
I opened a put position… Aug 18th 300…. @ 17.53
And I’m looking for about 260-265 to take profit….
I have short put orders out also to hedge up on the dips….
So let’s see what happens… August 18th is 114 days out… and I’ll roll out and up if I have to….
I will keep this idea updated below… in the past I haven’t had a good system to update my ideas because I do so many trades in a day and it’s not always easy… but I think I figured out a way…. 💃🏻
QQQ Bullish Reaction to MSFT & GOOGL Earnings | Daily Downtrend|- both AMEX:SPY and QQQ confirmed Daily downtrend.
- NASDAQ:QQQ finally broke out of its 3 weeks range bearish but the AH bounce
- NASDAQ:MSFT good earnings bringing all tech stocks up
- NASDAQ:GOOGL decent pop but faded most of its gains
- NASDAQ:AMZN moving due to MSFT decent cloud report
Cloud growth slows; market focuses on revenue from ChatGPT.Microsoft (MSFT.US), which ranks second in market capitalization in the U.S. stock market, will announce the results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2023 on April 25, EST after the U.S. stock market. Analysts generally expect Microsoft's Q3 revenue to be about $51.1 billion (up about 4% year-over-year), and GAAP earnings per share to be about $2.24, compared to $52.75 billion and $2.32 in the previous quarter.
In terms of beating expectations, Microsoft's performance has rarely disappointed investors. In the past 12 quarters, revenue has exceeded analyst consensus estimates 10 times, and earnings per share (EPS) have exceeded analyst consensus estimates 11 times. Therefore, many investors expect that although Microsoft's Q3 performance is slightly weak, the probability of exceeding expectations is very high.
The Azure cloud business remains crucial, but the growth rate will likely slow down again. Analysts predict that Microsoft's intelligent cloud business growth will slow sharply to an increase of 15%-19%.
Investors are focusing on the revenue brought by AI, with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella emphasizing the importance of ChatGPT-led AI technologies. The company's investment in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, has generated significant interest in the potential growth of Microsoft's Bing search engine. As a result, Microsoft's stock has risen by over 19% for the year, outperforming both the S&P 500 Information Technology index and the S&P 500 index. Investors' attention is primarily focused on Microsoft's Bing search engine and its potential for long-term growth.
The short trend is bearish, but the mid-range trend is still in uptrend.
QQQ Falling Wedge Pattern | MSFT GOOGL Earnings Prediction | - NASDAQ:QQQ falling wedge pattern is about to break likely break tomorrow.
- QQQ & AMEX:SPY still trading in the same tight range for 3 weeks likely breaking this week with all the big tech earnings
- NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:GOOGL Earnings report tomorrow AH
$QQQ Watch for a Key BreakNASDAQ:QQQ eyes on tech earnings (MSFT, META) this week. PA distributing like SPY between critical levels, but currently looking bearish after failing to break out of pennant. Both need to break respective pivot points for continued downside pressure to bottom TL.
Positioning: LT Short
MSFT - take profit before earnings?NASDAQ:MSFT reports after close this Tuesday. Everything that I see suggests that price is at an inflection point, and likely due to pullback. I expect that this earnings release will need to be a beat, communicate progress on AI, and provide strong forward guidance for additional upward continuation in the near term.
While it's still 19% off of its all time high, MSFT has had strong performance YTD. It's been a clear favorite in the AI narrative with its investment in ChatGPT and potential for integration across its products. Anyone dismissing AI as a fad needs to sit back and look at the big picture. It's coming at us quickly and will be transformational. Every tight labor market in economic history has been followed by adoption of workforce productivity and automation.
The TA suggests that MSFT is over extended in the short term. It's far above its 55EMA, RSI shows recent bearish divergence, MACD and leading MACD have rolled over, and price has been hovering at the 0.5 fib retrace from ATH and dense volume profile. In addition, we can see that recent price movement is supported entirely by short term inflows as long term positions have gradually drawn down. The longer term channel doesn't provide as much clarity, but any number of ways that I draw the fib time zones indicate that this is a time period for a shift in sentiment.
While this isn't a company to bet against, I'm planning to take some profit prior to earnings and will look for opportunities between FWB:250 -265 for accumulation. A sustained movement above $295. would suggest further upside continuation.
Market Outlook Analysis | Earnings Prediction | Support & Resist- QQQ Megaphone still in place
- NASDAQ:QQQ SKILLING:NASDAQ trading within 3 weeks range 320-312 area, likely breaking Tuesday
- Tuesday NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:GOOGL Earnings prediction
- NASDAQ:AAPL broke out without much follow through, historically AAPL dips into earnings or after earnings if it moves up alot into it.
- advertising companies dont do well during recessions.
- AMEX:SPY still healthy daily uptrend that may change next week
- still holding my AMEX:SOXS ( NASDAQ:SOXX short )
Everything you NEED to KNOW | $QQQ & Big Tech | KEY RESISTANCE |- Resistance levels for NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:GOOGL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TSLA
- double megaphone pattern on NASDAQ:QQQ likely breaking smaller one tomorrow
- most big techs are trading under resistance expect AAPL if no one follows AAPL its likely coming back down.
- i am more bearish here due to this kind of indecision whip saw sometimes marks a temporary top.
- Detailed Trade analysis of my NASDAQ:SOXX short (in AMEX:SOXS )
MICROSOFT Cup and Handle targeting $320.Microsoft (MSFT) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the November 04 Bottom. Supported by an Inner Higher Lows trend-line, we can even see a Rising Wedge forming. Now however, it will face the most important Resistance of this uptrend, the 294.50 of the August 15 High (just below the 0.618 Fibonacci).
If rejected, we may see a Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern materializing, which can pull the price back down to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), even the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). We remain bullish on MSFT but based on our long-term strategy for stocks, we will welcome such pull-back and buy it. Our next target is on the 0.786 Fibonacci at $320.
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$QQQ & Big Tech $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT Future Direction at Resistance- NASDAQ:QQQ gap up double rejection from premarket highs and bear took over first hour then complete sideways into end of day
- NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:AMZN all rejection from resistance today. lets see if bears can follow through tomorrow
- NASDAQ:NFLX earning had weak guidance
- NASDAQ:TSLA earnings tomorrow AH
- still holding my NASDAQ:SOXX short ( in 3x AMEX:SOXS )
Is it Worth Buying MSFT Today ?Microsoft Corporation, the American multinational technology company, has been one of the most prominent companies in the tech industry. Founded in 1975, the company’s market capitalization was $2.15 trillion, as of April 18, 2023. The company has had a strong revenue growth, reaching $198.27 billion in 2022, with projections of $262.57 billion in 2025. This growth has been fueled by several products, including Windows, Office Suite, Xbox, and LinkedIn, among others.
The company’s financial statements show strong performance, particularly in revenue, with an impressive compound annual growth rate of 13.3% between 2017 and 2022. The company has also maintained a good profitability level, with an average EBIT margin of 41.4% between 2017 and 2022. However, the company’s net income margin has been fluctuating between 2017 and 2022, reaching its highest at 36.5% in 2021 and its lowest at 31.0% in 2018.
The company's valuation ratios have been at reasonable levels over the years. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has ranged from 26.6x in 2022 to 35.3x in 2020. The P/E ratio is expected to reach 23.0x in 2025. The price-to-book (P/B) ratio has ranged from 11.5x in 2022 to 14.3x in 2021, and it is expected to reach 6.54x in 2025.
Microsoft Corporation's enterprise value (EV) to revenue ratio has also remained reasonable, ranging from 9.4x in 2022 to 11.7x in 2021, while its EV to EBITDA ratio ranged from 19.1x in 2022 to 24.1x in 2021. The company's enterprise value over free cash flow (EV/FCF) ratio was at 28.6x in 2022, and it is expected to reach 22.6x in 2025.
The company has a strong balance sheet, with net cash position ranging from $54.98 billion in 2022 to $135.17 billion in 2025. The company's free cash flow (FCF) margin has been reasonable, ranging from 32.9% in 2022 to 34.0% in 2025. Furthermore, Microsoft has maintained high return on equity (ROE) ratios of over 30% since 2018.
In light of the above financial performance, it is not surprising that analysts have a positive outlook for the company's future. They estimate that the company's net income will increase from $92.49 billion in 2025 to around $ billion in 2027, while the earnings per share (EPS) will reach $14.4 in 2027, according to the consensus of Wall Street. Moreover, the company's management has a history of generating high shareholder returns, primarily through share buybacks and dividends. The company’s dividend yield has ranged from 0.83% in 2021 to 1.13% in 2025, and it is expected to remain stable in the future.
Overall, Microsoft is a highly profitable and financially stable company, with strong growth potential in its cloud computing and artificial intelligence segments. While its current P/E ratio of 26.6x may seem relatively high compared to historical averages, it is still within reasonable range for a tech company with its growth prospects. The company's strong net cash position and negative leverage ratio further demonstrate its financial stability.
In conclusion, I believe that Microsoft is a strong investment opportunity for long-term investors. While short-term volatility and market fluctuations are always a possibility, the company's financial strength and growth potential make it an attractive option. With its continued investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence, Microsoft is well-positioned for success in the rapidly evolving technology landscape.