Massive signal from the market today! Daily AnalysisWe discuss all the major indices and fundamentals heading into the important Jobs number tomorrow.
The market is in a vulnerable point especially if the economic data comes in better than expected.
Massive earnings tomorrow could add to the volatility.
2 important market signals today from 2 leading stocks.
Microsoft (MSFT)
MicroSoft Going Hard on Google (unveils ChatGPT vs BARD) Charts first: 258.78 is double support we can count on, structure is quite strong.
313 will be our main target for 2023 and it could come fast as the news are Huge:
Microsoft has announced a new version of its search engine Bing, which incorporates the latest in artificial intelligence.
The overhaul deploys OpenAI's ChatGPT technology, which has taken the world by storm since its launch last year.
The move is by far the biggest threat Google has seen to its dominance in web search - and marks the beginning of an AI arms race between the companies.
"The race starts today," Microsoft boss Satya Nadella said.
Developed by Microsoft-backed OpenAI, ChatGPT uses deep learning techniques to generate human-like responses to search requests.
At the same time, GOOGLE announces their response to ChatGPT, in a race to come ahead of the popular AI service funded by Microsoft.
Google’s Bard AI will soon enter beta and will be available to select testers around the world, months after OpenAI’s ChatGPT exploded in popularity.
This will be interesting to watch and I do have a feeling that Google will win but the race will benefit Microsoft, at least temporarily.
One Love,
the FXPROFESSOR
Microsoft -> All Timeframes Are BullishHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
Microsoft is looking extremely juicy right now. From a weekly perspective we just created a long term double bottom and we also broke above a long term downtrend line.
There is definitely the possibility that after a short term pullback, we will start the next bullrun from here, creating new all-time-highs in the process.
From a daily perspective I am just waiting for a short term retest of the weekly neckline of the double bottom and then there is a very high chance that we will also see the daily continuation to the upside from here.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
HSY who doesn't love chocolate for Valentine's Day As a leading manufacturer of chocolate and sugar confectionery in the United States, Hershey Co. is poised to generate significant profits during Valentine's Day with its well-known brands such as Hershey's, Reese's, Twizzlers, and Kit Kat. Despite the recent controversy surrounding the missing "tips" on its Hershey's Kisses, the company's holiday-themed packaging, such as heart-shaped boxes, is expected to boost revenue even further. In 2018, Hershey Co. recorded annual revenue of $7,791 billion, a 3.67% increase from the previous year. According to the company spokesman, Valentine's Day ranks as Hershey's fourth largest season, following Halloween, Easter, and Christmas. going to do a live stream to talk more about the chart
$MSFT Trade Idea 2/6/23$MSFT
MSFT staying a relatively strong name. MSFT had a nice 20 point run from the 243 level this week before pulling back with SPX on Friday. If MSFT can Back test and hold the 255 level early this week we can see a move through 263 to 270. Id would wait for 250 to fail to consider puts.
Trade Idea:
MSFT 2/10/23 270 calls
Entry: Above 263
Target: 270
MSFT 2/10/23 260 calls
Entry: Back test of 255
Target: 263.34
Roll: 270 calls above
Microsoft - Extreme Bearish SentimentI see a gruesome bloodbath in the American stock market. Stocks are showing heavy bearish sentiment. Microsoft rose to as high as $349. A drop started at that price point and will continue right down to 141. A BREAK OF STRUCTURE at 141 will then send the price falling to around $14 (My Point Of Interest).
Things are really getting interesting!!!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smart Money Concepts are king in the market. Move with the big sharks or get ravaged!!!
$QQQ: Quarterly trend expiring...The quarterly timeframe chart had a trend signal that formed when the market broke out of the range that formed before and after the pandemic shock and subsequent lock public health, fiscal and monetary policies impacted equities. The stimulus driven bonanza ended and the market topped as the world knew the Fed would embark in quantitative tightening to normalize policy. Very curiously even perma bears and perma wrong value investors waiting for a dip got bullish, marking interesting contrarian signals for a top in late Nov 2021.
Now that the tides have turned, former winners have become the worst performers and riskiest assets to own long term due to the change in fundamental variables and the huge bubble that formed and is popping right now. The weekly $QQQ chart could flash a big weekly down trend during next week, for that reason I bot a put spread expiring on June 17 to reduce my portfolio's risk and profit, being this bear put spread OTM one of my main bearish plays I got going right now. If price stays below the weekly mode area for the whole week, the signal will confirm and we will see the Nasdaq names slide down dramatically until mid June easily. Longer term, this chart pattern points to a decline lasting well into 2024, and suggesting painful downside can happen in this ETF and associated names.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Microsoft -> Very Bullish Inverted Head And ShouldersHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis.
Microsoft just recently perfectly tested and rejected a quite strong and obvious previous support/resistance zone towards the upside. It also seems like Microsoft is about to create a double bottom from a weekly perspective, which is generally speaking a very bullish pattern, leading to more upside potential.
On the daily timeframe we actually have a quite interesting situation. You can see that the market is currently crating an inverted head and shoulders and just yesterday and today broke above and retested the neckline, which again is simply previous resistance which is now turned support.
Now from here I do expect further continuation towards the upside, confirming the bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
MSFT daimond bottomThe diamond bottom pattern is not a common formation but is considered a strong bullish reversal pattern amongst technical analysts. This bullish reversal pattern first expands from the left-hand side and then contracts into a narrower range, until price breaks out above the resistance line and completes the pattern.
MSFT Microsoft Bought 49% Stake in OpenAI creator of ChatGPTMSFT has reached our Buy area:
Microsoft purchased a 49% stake in OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT, for $10 billion.
Which i think it will turn out to be the best investment in MSFT history!
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) integrates Chat GPT into its Bing, Office, and it Azure service!
Now looking at the MSFT Microsoft options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $245 strike price Calls with
2023-2-27 expiration date for about
$1.60 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Or at least buy shares for the long run! They will compete with GOOGL thanks to OpenAI.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Trading Idea 007: MicrosoftMarket Conditions:
- bearish trend
- correction movement
- bullish sentiment in the market
Key Level and Lines:
- $241.51 resistance
Trading Ideas:
- go long after a consolidation around the resistance
- a false breakout and bearish sentiment in the market = trade opportunity for shorting.
Microsoft (MSFT) Q2 2023 EarningsMicrosoft (MSFT) reported the second fiscal quarter 2023 financial results after the market close. EPS beat the low estimates but revenue came below expectations, Azure cloud unit showed strong growth. Here are the key points:
Earnings per share came at $2.32 a decline from $2.48 a share a year ago but topping the expectations of $2.27.
Revenue for the quarter came at $52.7 billion below the expectations of $52.94 billion. Revenue growth is 2% (YoY) which is the slowest pace since 2016.
The Intelligent cloud revenue reported at $21.51 billion below the estimates of $21.43 billion.
Server products and cloud services revenue increased 20% driven by Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of 31%.
Azure grew 38% (YoY) topping the consensus of 37%. Here are the last quarters Azure growth:
Q3 ’21: 48%
Q4 ’21: 46%
Q1 ’22: 49%
Q2 ’22: 46%
Q3 ’22: 42%
Q4 ’22: 38%
Revenue in Productivity and Business Processes was $17.0 billion.
Revenue in More Personal Computing was $14.2 billion and decreased 19%.
Operating income was $20.4 billion GAAP and $21.6 billion non-GAAP
Diluted earnings per share were $2.20 GAAP and $2.32 non-GAAP
Here is Microsoft’s $MSFT December Quarter Revenue since 2006
2006: $12.5B
2007: $16.4B
2008: $16.6B
2009: $19B
2010: $20B
2011: $20.9B
2012: $21.5B
2013: $24.5B
2014: $26.5B
2015: $23.8B
2016: $25.8B
2017: $28.9B
2018: $32.5B
2019: $36.9B
2020: $43.1B
2021: $51.7B
2022: $52.7B
Microsoft Analyst’s Expectations and latest Price Target
Analysts expected Microsoft to report earnings per share of $2.27 and revenue of $52.94. Revenue growth for the Azzure segment is expected to grow by 37%.
On January 20, Mizuho reiterated Microsoft at Buy and reduced the price target from $305 to $290. Guggenheim on January 17, downgraded MSFT from Neutral to Sell and set a price target of $212.
MICROSOFT - EARNINGSMSFT is trading under key resistance as seen by the white trendline. The price action and trend still favors downside bias however there is a key gap fill around $257 that would be a perfect short level if it popped off of earnings.
Based off of the rally in the indexes, MSFT has been a lagger in tech which could be displaying relative weakness.
MSFT Potential for Bearish Continuation| 20th January 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for MSFT is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market.
Looking for a pullback sell entry at 244.79, where the overlap resistance and 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 263.91, where the recent swing high is. Take profit will be at 213.47, where the previous swing low is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
MSFT Potential for Bearish Continuation| 20th January 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for MSFT is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.
Looking for a pullback sell entry at 244.79, where the overlap resistance and 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 263.91, where the recent swing high is. Take profit will be at 213.47, where the previous swing low is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
MSFT Big Short side possibleWe have a very small inverted hammer on the weekly. This is a bullish reversal. We need to see confirmation over the next couple days. The weekly 200ema is feeling the pressure of MSFT trying to push lower.
On the daily we see multiple attempts at the 9 EMA. We also see strong resistance and selling pressure in the 228.40-232.20 area. We also see similar behavior on the weekly chart. Right now the area holding up MSFT from lower lows is the 225-228 area.
Long trigger is 230 - 231
Short trigger is 222 - 224
Watching this one closely.
This one based on the weekly is a 50/50
based on the daily I think we will see some lower consolidation before a direction is decided on the weekly.