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Microsoft (MSFT)

MSFT Update: Potential ABC Correction o The weekly chart suggests the completion of a 5-wave impulse to the upside. o Currently, the price is forming an ABC corrective structure: o Wave A is complete and has tested the previous demand zone. o Wave B appears to be forming a rising wedge (bearish continuation pattern). o Wave C is anticipated to move lower, targeting deeper demand zones (374-360). o The RSI on the 4H timeframe shows bearish divergence at recent highs, aligning with the corrective wave outlook. "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." – Warren Buffett "The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." – Alexander Elder Stay disciplined and adhere to your risk management rules! Disclaimer This idea is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by MESHANL
3
MAG7 breaks to new highs with the NAS100 outperforming The reaction in markets is what interests the most, and on the day, despite US Treasuries finding form, we’ve seen broad USD strength, the S&P500 has pushed to its 55th new all-time high in 2024, while gold and crude are largely unchanged. We also see sizeable dispersions in the daily returns in the crypto space, with XRP and Chainlink arguable the standout plays, with 23% and 41% gains respectively on the day. In the volatility (vol) space, we see the VIX trading lower at 13.5% - the lowest level since July and at levels more aligned with S&P500 20-day realised vol. Equity hedges have been unwound, which speaks to a market confident of a grind higher into year-end. Another way to visualise the subdued equity vol is in the daily high-low trading ranges, and on the day the S&P500 has tracked a meagre 18-handle range – one of the lowest high-low ranges of the year, and well below the 5-day average of 34-handles. Removing downside hedges makes sense given the largest drawdown in the S&P500 in Q4 has been 3.1%, and hedges cost money and subtract from performance if equity is moving higher. On the day we’ve seen a solid bid in comms services names (Meta & Alphabet), tech and consumer discretionary – said another way, the MAG7 index (+1.9%) has broken out to a new ATH, with all 7 MAG7 constituents rising on the day. Microsoft and Meta would be my picks that lead us higher from here, with MSFT filling the gap from the 31 Oct, where a break of $432.23 would suggest a continuation rally into $440. Naturally, when tech and the big discretionary plays are firing up, it’s the NAS100 which has outperformed, and we see NAS100 futures 120p from testing the former ATH at 21,340. We’ve seen solid moves in European equity too, and notably in the German DAX which is in beast mode and doing everything right technically – happy to hold longs here until the index has a daily close below the 5-day EMA. French equity is the exception, with the CAC40 closing unchanged, which is quite a solid result given the brewing political angst. Certainly, we’ve seen the political risk expressed in the EUR, which is lower on the day against all G10 currencies, and notably vs the JPY and USD. We can add negative revisions to the French and German manufacturing PMIs, which make for sobering viewing, and the upshot has been broad EUR selling. EURUSD hit a low of 1.0461 before the buyers stepped in – we can attribute a degree of the move lower to an improved US ISM manufacturing report (at 48.4 vs 47.5 eyed), although we did see some modest USD selling late in the session as Fed gov Waller signalled that he is leaning on a December rate cut and that rates are still “some distance from neutral”. US interest rate swaps now price at 79% chance the Fed cut by 25bp on 18 Dec. Equity and bond vol may be headed lower, but FX vol is alive and well with EURUSD 1-month implied vol at 8.66% and the 92nd percentile of the 12-month range. Buying EUR vol certainly made sense given the uncertainty of the ECBs (and the Fed’s) next move and the French political risk premium. CAD vols also screen well, with options traders seeing increased movement in USDCAD and AUDCAD. On the subject of movement, we can always find it in the crypto markets, and while Bitcoin (-2.5%) and Ethereum (-2.7%) take a backseat, it’s XRP that’s getting the lion’s share of trader attention with its punchy 23% rally on the day. The daily chart looks ridiculous and highlights the explosive 450% gain seen since the US election. XRP Volumes are tracking north of SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B on the day, which is higher than what’s traded on BTC, with the gains taking its market cap to $134b – the third biggest coin in the crypto sphere. Grossly overbought, and with a 10-day volatility of 150%, chasing XRP upside from here comes with significant risk and the fact I’m focused on it suggests we’ve likely hit peak sentiment – but as know what is overbought can stay overbought for some time. Looking ahead, we see a largely positive open for Asia with the ASX200 set to outperform with the index set to open nicely above 8500 and to new highs. Event risk in the session ahead comes in on the light side, with Swiss CPI and US Job openings (JOLTS) the key events on the radar.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
Microsoft - Short Term Top Formation!Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) could create a short term correction: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Almost for the entire year of 2024, Microsoft has been moving sideways and respecting the upper channel resistance trendline. It is quite likely that we will see a correction, considering that buyers are still weak, before we then see the overall trend continuation. Levels to watch: $350 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by basictradingtv
5
Microsoft $MSFT - About to go on another run? 19% UpsideMicrosoft - NASDAQ:MSFT 🖥️ Microsoft with a big statement today for themselves and the MAG7! The runs not over! All MAG7 names are moving higher today and carrying the market. Is this the beginning of the next leg up for BIG TECH? Microsoft was forming a nasty H&S on the charts but has formed a Symmetrical Triangle pattern at then same time and is currently breaking out. They also broke out of the WR% downtrend and are launching off the AVP shelf to make a push back to ATH's. Finally the H5 indicator is pointing upward and working on flipping back to GREEN. 🎯$466 📏$512 ⏳ May2025 NFA
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by RonnieV29
MICROSOFT: Channel Down bottomed. Bullish wave starting to 540.MSFT is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.171, MACD = -0.910, ADX = 23.585) as since the September 6th Low it has been ranging sideways. Despite the lack of trend, this price action still hit the bottom of the long term Channel Up and technically the new bullish wave should start. The conditions for that are perfect as the 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. The last bullish wave touched the HH trendline of the Channel Up after surpassing the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. That is our current target (TP = 540). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by InvestingScope
Microsoft: Progress!The Microsoft stock has now successfully completed wave B in turquoise at $444.95. So, now we locate the price in the subsequent wave C, which is set to finalize the overarching three-part wave in dark green. This suggests further declines, with an ideal low just below $400. Following the low of the overarching wave , Microsoft should initiate a new upward impulse. While there’s a 25% chance that wave alt. in dark green has already hit its low, this alternative scenario will only be confirmed if the stock breaks above $469.55.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by MarketIntel
MICROSOFT has bottomed. Dont miss this once/year buy opportunityMicrosoft (MSFT) has been trading within a Fibonacci Channel Up since the October 2022 market bottom following the Inflation Crisis. Since the August 05 2024 Low on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), the stock has struggled to get detached from it and stage a sustainable rally. This prolonged volatility can be seen however on both previous Lows of the Channel Up, while the price was attempting to price a bottom. Technically it is around the same levels as February - March 2023 (again below the 1W MA50). As you can see, this kind of buy opportunity emerges roughly once a year on MSFT and posts a rise or roughly +50% from the bottom, with the last Higher High priced on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. As a result, our long-term Target is now set at $550. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TradingShot
3
IS THIS MAG7 DARLING ABOUT TO CRASH?!NASDAQ:MSFT 🔥 IS NASDAQ:MSFT ABOUT TO FALL OVER 21%?! 🔥 Let's not panic yet, but Microsoft's weekly charts are flashing some intriguing signals. Here’s the lowdown: As long as NASDAQ:MSFT stays within its symmetrical pattern, we’re in the clear. But if it breaks downward, we’re looking at a potential 6% drop from the Volume profile shelf and possibly a dangerous 22% plunge, breaking the 2024 Head & Shoulders pattern. Enter the "Low Five Setup"—the bearish counterpart to my "High Five Setup." Key factors to watch: - Williams %R: Lower High - MACD: Dangerously close to crossing below the zero line (BEARISH) - RSI: Below RSI MA with lower highs, at 46—lots of room before oversold - Trend: Lower high, red through yellow downward move indicating a downtrend on the weekly chart Microsoft has been Wall Street’s golden goose, untouched by the FUD that hit the MAG7 stocks. Apple had China FUD, Tesla faced the ELON BAD FUD, Google with AI SEARCH FUD, Amazon with spending and margins FUD, Meta with metaverse spending FUD, and Nvidia with growth concerns FUD. But as Willy Wonka taught us, every golden goose lays a bad egg sometimes. This is a weekly chart setup, so it will take time to play out. No one's immune to Wall Street’s FUD wrath, not even Microsoft. We shall see what happens... P.S. I’m not in this name yet—just putting it on your radar. We’re early to the party, just like I always am with my setups. If you’re still here, you value solid, well-thought-out market analysis. Props to you! Have a great Sunday, friends! 👊 Not Financial Advice #HighFiveSetup #LowFiveSetup
NASDAQ:MSFT
by RonnieV29
Microsoft’s Big Moves This Quarter | From Activision to AI AgentMicrosoft’s Revenue Surge: The Power of AI, Gaming, and Strategic Investments Microsoft has released its Q1 FY25 earnings for the quarter ending in September The stock saw a 6% drop, indicating the results fell short of investors' high hopes. Trading at over 30 times projected earnings for next year, expectations for Microsoft were significant. CEO Satya Nadella stated “Our AI business is set to exceed an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, making it the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone.” This means that AI will soon account for about 4% of Microsoft's total revenue in under three years a remarkable feat for a global giant. If you need a quick summary, here are three main points: 1. ☁️ Azure’s growth is slowing. As Microsoft’s key player in the AI competition, Azure grew 34%, down slightly from 35% in the prior quarter (after adjustments). This comes as Google Cloud raised the bar, with its growth accelerating from 29% to 35% during the same period. 2. 🤖 AI growth is limited by hardware supply, as capacity struggles to meet demand. Data center expansion is a long-term process, and Microsoft is investing heavily in infrastructure, aiming for a growth boost by 2025. 3. 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 Consumer-focused products like Gaming and Devices are underperforming. Although not essential to Microsoft's core business, their poor performance has impacted overall results. Here’s a breakdown of the insights from the quarter. Overview of today’s insights: - New segmentation. - Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 overview. - Key earnings call highlights. - Future areas to monitor. 1. New Segmentation Revised Business Segments In August, Microsoft announced a reorganization of its business segments, effective this quarter. The purpose? To better align financial reporting with the current business structure and strategic management. Summary of the main changes - Microsoft 365 Commercial revenue consolidation: All M365 commercial revenue, including mobility and security services, now falls under the Productivity and Business Processes segment. -Copilot Pro revenue shift: Revenue from the Copilot Pro tool was moved from Productivity and Business Processes to the More Personal Computing segment under Search and news advertising. -Nuance Enterprise reallocation: Revenue from Nuance, previously part of Intelligent Cloud, is now included in Productivity and Business Processes. -Windows and Devices reporting combination: Microsoft now reports Windows and Devices revenue together. Impact of These Changes: Core Segments Overview: In summary: - The Productivity and Business Processes segment has grown significantly. - The Intelligent Cloud segment has decreased due to the reallocation of Nuance and other revenue. Products and Services Overview: - M365 Commercial now includes Nuance, shifted from the Server products category, along with integrated mobility and security services. - Windows & Devices have been merged into a single, slower-growth category. Additional Insights: - Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, is reported within 'Server products and cloud services.' Although its growth rate is shared by management, exact revenue figures remain undisclosed. Azure’s past growth figures have been adjusted for consistency, with the last quarter’s constant currency growth recast from 30% to 35%, setting a higher benchmark. Tracking these metrics is challenging due to limited revenue disclosure, but this recast indicates Azure's raised growth expectations. 2. Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 Performance Financial Summary: -Revenue: Up 16% year-over-year, reaching $65.6 billion (exceeding estimates by $1 billion). Post-Activision Blizzard acquisition in October 2023, the growth was 13% excluding the merger. New Product and Services Segmentation Results - Server products & cloud services: $22.2 billion (+23% Y/Y). - M365 Commercial: $20.4 billion (+13% Y/Y). - Gaming: $5.6 billion (+43% Y/Y), influenced by Activision. - Windows & Devices: $4.3 billion (flat Y/Y). - LinkedIn: $4.3 billion (+10% Y/Y). - Search & news advertising: $3.2 billion (+7% Y/Y). - Enterprise & partner services: $1.9 billion (flat Y/Y). - Dynamics: $1.8 billion (+14% Y/Y). - M365 Consumer products: $1.7 billion (+5% Y/Y). Core Business Segments Breakdown: - Productivity and Business Processes: Increased 12% Y/Y to $28.3 billion, supported by M365 Commercial, especially Copilot adoption. - Intelligent Cloud: Grew 20% Y/Y to $24.1 billion, with Azure AI driving growth. - More Personal Computing: Grew 17% Y/Y to $13.2 billion, including a 15-point boost from Activision. Devices fell, but search and ad performance improved under new segmentation. Key Observations: - Microsoft Cloud revenue climbed 22% Y/Y to $39 billion, making up 59% of total revenue (+3 percentage points Y/Y). - Azure continues to drive cloud services and server products' growth. - Xbox growth has surged due to the Activision acquisition since Q2 FY24, expected to stabilize by Q2 FY25. - Windows OEM and devices combined, showing a 2% decline in Q1 FY25. - Office rebranded to Microsoft 365; updated naming will be used starting next quarter. - Margins: Gross margin at 69% (down 2pp Y/Y, 1pp Q/Q); operating margin at 47% (down 1pp Y/Y, up 4pp Q/Q). - EPS: Increased 10% to $3.30, beating by $0.19. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: - Operating cash flow: $34 billion (52% margin, down 2pp Y/Y). - Cash**: $78 billion; Long-term debt**: $43 billion. Q2 FY25 Outlook: - Productivity and Business Processes: Anticipated 10%-11% Y/Y growth, steady due to M365, Copilot inclusion, and expected LinkedIn growth of ~10%. Dynamics set to grow mid-to-high teens. - Intelligent Cloud: Projected 18%-20% Y/Y growth, slightly slowing, with Azure growth expected between 28%-29%. - More Personal Computing: Forecasted ~$14 billion revenue, declines in Windows, Devices, and Gaming anticipated, with some offset from Copilot Pro. Main Takeaways: - Azure's growth slowed to 34% Y/Y in constant currency, with AI services contributing 12pp, up from 11pp last quarter. This marks a dip from the recast 35% prior and included an accounting boost. - Capacity limitations in AI persist; more infrastructure investments are planned, with reacceleration expected in H2 FY25. - Commercial performance obligations grew 21% to $259 billion, up from 20% in Q4. - Margins were pressured by AI infrastructure investments; Activision reduced the operating margin by 2 points. - Capital expenditures increased by 50% to $15 billion, half dedicated to infrastructure, with further Capex growth expected. - Shareholder returns included $9.0 billion through buybacks and dividends, matching Q4 repurchases. Earnings Call Highlights: Azure AI saw a doubling of usage over six months, positioning it as a foundation for services like Cosmos DB and SQL DB. Microsoft Fabric adoption grew 14% sequentially, signaling rapid uptake. AI Expansion: GitHub Copilot enterprise use surged 55% Q/Q, with AI-powered capabilities used by nearly 600,000 organizations, a 4x increase Y/Y. M365 Copilot has achieved a 70% adoption rate among Fortune 500 companies and continues to grow rapidly. LinkedIn saw accelerated growth in markets like India and Brazil and a 6x quarterly increase in video views, aligning with broader social media trends. Search and Gaming: Bing’s revenue growth surpassed the market, while Game Pass hit a new revenue record, propelled by Black Ops 6 Capital Expenditures: CFO Amy Hood highlighted that half of cloud and AI investments are for long-term infrastructure, positioning the company for sustained growth. 4. Future Outlook Energy Needs: Microsoft, facing higher power demands, plans to revive a reactor at Three Mile Island with Constellation Energy by 2028 to power its AI data centers sustainably. Autonomous AI Agents: Coming in November, these agents will perform tasks with minimal human input, enhancing efficiency. Copilot Studio will allow businesses to customize these agents, with 10 pre-built options to start. Industry Impact: Salesforce has launched Agentforce, signaling increased competition. CEO Mark Benioff recently compared Microsoft’s Copilot to the nostalgic Clippy, stoking rivalry. For further analysis stay tuned
NASDAQ:MSFT
by moonypto
Microsoft (MSFT) Shares Decline Despite Strong Earnings ReportMicrosoft (MSFT) Shares Decline Despite Strong Earnings Report On 9 October, our analysis of Microsoft (MSFT) suggested that the stock price: → Was forming an ascending channel (shown in blue on the chart); → Could see a rebound from its lower boundary (indicated by an arrow). Since then, the price indeed moved upward from this support around the $411 level, even surpassing $437. However, following Microsoft’s Q3 earnings report released post-market yesterday, the share price faced heightened volatility. In the Q3 report: → Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.30, exceeding the expected $3.10; → Gross revenue was $65.58 billion, also above the forecasted $64.57 billion. Despite these positive figures, MSFT shares saw a decline due to high volatility during after-hours trading, reaching $444 at one point and then falling to around $410. This drop may be due to Microsoft’s rising expenses. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, Microsoft’s capital expenditures in 2024 have hit $53 billion (about 28% of revenue), a substantial increase from the 12% average of revenue allocated to capital costs between 2014 and 2023. As of pre-market trading today, MSFT is trading around $417 (approximately -4% from yesterday’s close), likely setting the opening level for today’s main session. Today’s technical analysis of MSFT suggests that the opening may see a bearish gap, potentially pushing MSFT’s price toward the lower boundary of the ascending blue channel, where a new consensus between buyers and sellers could emerge. This sets up two scenarios: → Bulls may see an opportunity for another rebound; → Bears could aim for a breakdown of this key support level, with potential testing of the psychological $400 level. Analyst sentiment remains positive. According to TipRanks surveys: → 27 out of 30 analysts recommend buying MSFT shares; → The average 12-month target price for MSFT is $503. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by FXOpen
5
Microsoft (MSFT): Can Earnings Sustain the Trend Channel?With Microsoft set to report earnings, investors are keenly watching updates on AI-related spending, especially growth within Azure and Copilot, as well as broader financials. A significant focus will be on capital expenditures (Capex) for generative AI initiatives, expected to rise from $9.92 billion a year ago to an estimated $14.74 billion in this recent quarter. Beyond revenue and earnings, the market is waiting to see how these hefty investments are shaping the company’s growth trajectory. Technically, NASDAQ:MSFT continues to test the lower bound of its trend channel—a level that may weaken with repeated retests. The stock’s reaction to earnings will reveal if this support can hold. The formation suggests a potential head and shoulders pattern, particularly if NASDAQ:MSFT dips below the neckline support at $388 with declining volume. For now, we’re maintaining our cautious outlook. If Microsoft fails to hold its key support levels, it may confirm the bearish trend we’ve been observing. As always, we’ll provide updates if any significant developments occur after the earnings report.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by freeguy_by_wmc