MSFT: Bears Have Taken Control Over BullsMSFT has accomplished the corrective wave (b) and started falling for wave (c) of wave (4).
Traders can expect the following targets: 289 - 272 - 265 for wave (c).
Here, 273 is the Fibonacci level of 50% of the wave. This level will act as a crucial level.
An uptrend is only possible after the breakout of the parallel channel . As per the wave principle, a new trend can unfold above/below wave B of the previous correction.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Potential for MSFT puts near open and then calls laterPotential for puts near open if the emas close bearish on the 15 minute premarket (and theres a good looking entry on the 5 and 2 minute). Looking for a pump up towards 273 sometime in the late morning. It wicked up from 269ish all the to 273.39 after hours, and I'm hoping it tries to test that during regular market hours. I will look for a chance to enter a call if it holds around the 269.50 area. I will be using a bullish 9 and 21 EMA (I use the ones on Webull) crossing as confirmation on 2 minute, even better if it has first completed a bullish crossing of the 15 minute. Will also use my indicators shown in the chart as extra confirmation. Likely will scalp quick and not hold all the way to 273 given how eratic the market has been. If it rejects that area, it may pose a chance for puts. Blue lines indicate where its been trading between and shorter time frame. Green and red lines are 1hr and 1 day support/resistance areas. Just sharing my own personal levels, I'm not a pro lol.
Microsoft - Time to Buy the Dip? Still the undefeated software giant Microsoft , top 3 company of the world has corrected for 25%, nearly as much as we have seen in March 2020.
Is it time to buy?
Fundamental indicators:
Revenue and Profits - consistent strong growth for the past 10 years
Profit margin - impressive 35% in 2021
P/E - although still above the norms with 27x ratio it can be considered by many very much acceptable for this highly effective company
Liabilities - no problems with debt
Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
The rapid drop in March 2020 has completed correction that has been observed for nearly year and a half and formed by a Running Flat
Since then Microsoft has enjoyed an explosive growth with over 150% increase in an impulse movement
And having peaked at $350 there is another correction developing now
Given the rank of this highly sought after stock it is possible to assume that this correction is going to be similar to the previous one and the depth is not going to exceed 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of wave 3, i.e. not lower than $230, and it will also be shaped as a Running Flat
Duration of this running correction is likely to be longer than the previous one lasting at least till end of 2023 followed by another rocket-like movement to the moon
What do you think about the prospects for Microsoft ?
Please share your thoughts in the comments and like this idea if you would like to see more stocks analysed using Elliott Waves.
Thanks
IS MSFT A HOPELESS SHORT ?MSFT today cut cleanly through a very important support line, as well as below the neckline of a massive Head and Shoulders pattern.
Not much to say, it should look to retest the broken zone, and that would be an ideal time to go short, or buy puts with, preferably, two months to expiration or sell calls.
In bear markets even the leaders take hits.
Will Microsoft let itself be affected by negative events? ⚔️We tend to see triangles everywhere, we realize that this may be redundant for some, but all modes of chartist analysis are good to go.
We also realize that the triangle Microsoft is forming is not the prettiest, but if it is truly a compression triangle, then we could be looking at an upside breakout.
Only time will tell, I must admit that taking positions in these complicated times for everyone is a risky bet, which may or may not be taken for a good performance.
Only two paths are possible, but which one will Microsoft choose?
M2 Adjusted FAAMNG Tutorial/AnalysisThe current FAANG symbol does not have a very long history. Depending on the symbol, you get a chart that either starts from mid-2019 or 2016. We get couple more years of data in this chart, back to early 2014. I weighted each stock equally according to its 60 month average, and adjusted for M2 expansion, which gives us a very consistent support line. There's also a horizontal resistance line that extends from 2018 onward that is currently being tested as support, which raises the questions:
Is historical support now resistance? Is the resistance line now support? Or will we drop below the resistance line once again?
It wouldn't surprise me if we got a bounce here to once again test that the Support line is *actually* now resistance and the drop in price wasn't a fluke. Which, maybe it was. But on the other hand, smaller caps have gotten completely crushed, look at the M2 Adjusted Russell 2000 for example:
We're getting close to the "value" zone, but we're still at the bottom range of wholesale prices. I wouldn't be surprised if there's even more stop-loss style liquidations at these prices.
There are many many unprofitable companies, roughly 50%?!, that are feeling the pain in the Russell. It's not crazy to think that once the smaller caps fall, the rest of the larger dominoes fall. First, there were drops in sort of intangibly valued companies like Netflix/Peloton. Market shrugged it off. Then we saw a single day -0.25 trillion$ valuation drop in Facebook. Market shrugged it off. Now in the past few weeks, Amazon is finally looking terrible, and this is the first time in YEARS that the market seems to be taking it seriously. How long until Apple/Tesla bite the bullet? The market can only shrug off so much localized losses before it becomes systemic. It's only a matter of weeks or months, in my opinion, until we see the remaining FAANMG and others reflect the state of rest of the market.
So how did i manage to get the symbol on the chart?
This method is not perfect. There's lots of ways to do this. I decided to equally weight each stock by their 60 month SMA, given that mean reversion is a well known phenomenon. But you can use any anything you wish, as long as it normalizes the price in a way that you like. Literally anything.
First, I wrote down the SMAs like this:
60 month SMA:
FB = 221.34
AMZN = 2250.99
AAPL = 85.60
MSFT = 173.64
NFLX = 380.58
GOOG = 1585.70
Notice that AAPL has the lowest average, 85.6.
We can use AAPL as our "benchmark".
Divide every SMA by 85.6:
FB = 2.5857
AMZN = 26.296
AAPL = 1
MSFT = 2.0285
NFLX = 4.4460
GOOG = 18.524
Now we can add each price together, and divide by our adjuster that we just calculated, to get a fairly crude, but accurate enough, equally average-weighted basket:
AAPL+
FB/2.5857+
AMZN/26.296+
MSFT/2.0285+
NFLX/4.4460+
GOOG/18.524
Mash it all together, you get:
NASDAQ:AAPL+NASDAQ:FB/2.5857+NASDAQ:AMZN/26.296+NASDAQ:MSFT/2.0285+NASDAQ:NFLX/4.4460+NASDAQ:GOOG/18.524
And adjust for M2 if you want:
(NASDAQ:AAPL+NASDAQ:FB/2.5857+NASDAQ:AMZN/26.296+NASDAQ:MSFT/2.0285+NASDAQ:NFLX/4.4460+NASDAQ:GOOG/18.524)/FRED:WM2NS
This looks ugly though. The value is so small, there's no horizontal bars on the chart because of a display bug in TV or some other problem. So we can simply multiply the entire series by a value. in this case 15, until we get something that looks good.
(NASDAQ:AAPL+NASDAQ:FB/2.5857+NASDAQ:AMZN/26.296+NASDAQ:MSFT/2.0285+NASDAQ:NFLX/4.4460+NASDAQ:GOOG/18.524)/FRED:WM2NS*15
There's a lot of ideas fairly similar to this out there, but I hope this helps someone who might be curious how people came up with these crazy long symbols. Try it with your favorite sectors! Make your own sector benchmarks. You can combine up to 10 symbols at once! Here we only used 6 symbols (7 if you include WM2NS).
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets :)
5/4/22 MSFTMicrosoft Corp. ( NASDAQ:MSFT )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $2.174T
Current Price: $289.98
Breakout price: $290.85
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $288.70-$277.00
Price Target: $303.20-$307.00 (3rd), $320.70-$323.50 (4th)
Estimated Duration to Target: 25-27d (3rd), 55-57d (4th)
Contract of Interest: $MSFT 6/17/22 290c, $MSFT 7/15/22 295c
Trade price as of publish date: $11.65/contract, $11.60/contract
MSFT at pivot levelsMSFT has tried to break above 291 resistance for a long time now.
I want to see a strong candle (1hr) closing above $291 to give some conviction.
If there is another rejection we are back in the channel trading sideways, but still might present some good opportunities. But I would favor an upside move.
IS MSFT OVERVALUED?Microsoft Corporation develops, licenses, and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. Its Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Office, Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Office 365
Security and Compliance, and Skype for Business, as well as related Client Access Licenses (CAL); Skype, Outlook.com, OneDrive, and LinkedIn; and Dynamics 365, a set of cloud-based and on-premises business solutions for
organizations and enterprise divisions. Its Intelligent Cloud segment licenses SQL, Windows Servers, Visual Studio, System Center, and related CALs; GitHub that provides a collaboration platform and code hosting service for
developers; and Azure, a cloud platform. It also offers support services and Microsoft consulting services to assist customers in developing, deploying, and managing Microsoft server and desktop solutions.
Microsoft is a rock. No doubt. But i feel like that the stock is priced for perfection and if earnings do not constantly surprise investors, then we could see a strong move downward. Especially when we think FED will increase rates and decrease money supply.
MSFT p/e is only 29 which is pretty low for a tech company but its market cap 2.1 trillion dollars. It is %10 of US GDP and around %2,5 of worlds GDP.
How much more can it grow? Where is the line for a company to be too big?
Right now FED is increasing rates and decreasing money supply which is not good for stock market.
This year we can experience that big techs, such as Google, MSFT, Apple is overvalued for this kind of economic policies.
Lets take a look at important price levels.
Support levels
280
266
241
If we cant keep 280 levels as support, fast downward movement to 266 and 241 is possible.
Resistance leves
299
On the upside if we can breakout of 299 level, it is possible for more increase.
Price targets are
310
320
350
Thanks
Follow for more charts and ideas.
Microsoft Struggling?Microsoft
Short Term - We look to Sell at 306.08 (stop at 317.41)
We look to sell rallies. We look to set shorts in early trade for a further test of the fragile looking support. Levels close to the 50% pullback level of 309.47 found sellers. The trend of lower highs is located at 315.00. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 272.25 and 254.00
Resistance: 300.00 / 310.00 / 320.00
Support: 270.00 / 260.00 / 240.00
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