✅TRADE REVIEW: $MSFTAlready have a position in MSFT and have traded in the past. I am adding on this pullback buy.
I have about half a position size now and will look to build up my position on the next pivot.
Microsoft (MSFT)
So goes Apple so goes the market? The old wall street adage! so goes apple....
Were at a pretty interesting level.
Are market makers going to make this breakdown in apple easy?
A head & shoulders breakdown is now on watch for a confirmed break.
This does imply a decent down move and will undoubtedly weigh on markets if it happens.
Keep an eye on the second largest company in the world.
Microsoft EW Analysis in 4hr time frameHello friends. We see the chart of Microsoft stock and this analysis by EW so be assumed start the 4th wave by abc moving I hope the price touch the 372 $ zone.
BITCOIN, WTF TRENDS EDITIONBitcoin has some crazy trends.
But everyone says I'm crazy, so I've really got nothing to lose, haha.
Basically, everything is overextended, but not really.. if that makes any sense.
It puts bitcoin rejecting somewhere between now and 48k, and dropping to like 32k, which then has it returning to 54, which then has it going to like 12k, which then shows 120k.
How likely is this scenario? LOW. Very low, and even lower that it is similar to what I've drawn.
But also.. Not impossible.
So, here it is. IF it should happen like this, you'll be prepared to buy into some massive fear.
If it doesn't happen. Then trends and price targets are still relevant.
MSFT nice opportunity to enter this great stockhistorical chart is vertically scary, thus you always feel the opportunity to invest in this stock has already passed, but here goes nothing.
seeing a change of flows in the monthly chart signalling a possible retrace, i found confluence between 61.8% fib retracement from the whole move up since covid crash + POC at the same level for equal period + 1.27 fib extension.
provides a potential great entry if hit.
not sure about the TF this can happen and i don't expect it to go towards the target in one movement.
MICROSOFT Correction under the MA50 (1d) expected.Microsoft is trading inside a 14month Channel Up.
The MA50 (1d) is supporting since October 6th 2023, which is the same time length as the last Bullish Leg of the Channel Up.
It seems we are in a similar Bullish Megaphone Top formation.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 395.00 (Support 1, which was the target during the previous Channel Up correction).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is also forming an identical Bearish Megaphone as the June-July 2023 top.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
MSFT: The risks of selling shortNASDAQ:MSFT ran down yesterday but is reaching the low of the support today.
The next tier of support is outlined also from the Dec-Jan Buy Zone ahead of earnings season.
The risk day traders are taking selling short is if it runs below the low of the support and the Dark Pools surface to buy below its fundamental price level. This is why selling short is risky at this time. Support is around $397.
The big question is where are the lows for fundamental levels for the next quarterly report. MSFT had higher revenues with slightly lower earnings. The CFO did not adjust earnings. It could gap or run down on news, but fundamentals are not way below the current price.
Stock Market ceiling, 5260$SPX500 hits ceiling somewhere around April to June. (if current trend holds intact)
$MSFT to go above $450 for blow off top?NASDAQ:MSFT had a strong bounce from $397 and looks set to continue a move higher.
I think we could see a very strong move over the next few weeks which sends MSFT up and over the $450 range to new highs.
If we get up there, I think this will end up being the final move for MSFT before heading much lower. Yes, I was too early on my original top call , however, still think the same outcome will prevail after hitting this range. Will update the bearish view if this top gets hit.
I bought 3/8 $450C prior to NVDA earnings, let's see if this range gets hit before then.
Microsoft Bullish Cup and Handle Microsoft - NASDAQ:MSFT
A bullish monthly and weekly chart:
✅Monthly MACD Cross
✅ Long Term parallel channel intact
✅ Above 200 day & week MA
✅ Cup and Handle (with a high handle - Preferred)
✅ Good Risk: Reward Ratio at 7.6 (51%+ vs -7% loss)
⚠️ Stop loss levels on chart 🫡
A great set up. Those that are patient could wait for a potential pull back (arrow on chart) as we are reaching into overbought levels on the RSI on the weekly. It would not be unusual for Microsoft to pull back 5-8%. The R:R would be significantly improved if you waited and if it led to an entry from approx. $350 (after a 5-8% pull back), this would line up with the 200 DSMA also. However there are no guarantees of a pull back.
Those half as cautious could enter half a position here and see what happens and place another entry at $350.
All in all the $330 - 335 red box area on the chart is an absolute stop loss level. If this level is lost I would be out of the trade fast.
So you have options with this set up:
1) Entry here with a tight 7% stop.
2) Half a position here and half at approx. $350 with a stop at $335.
3) You wait for $350 and you place your stop at $330.
These all result in a similar loss of 5 - 7% in the event the trade fails. The upside potential is always 50%+. You can always cut early also at target one and take something at the 26% profit level.
It important you take full responsibility for your trade, position accordingly and be ok with the small 5-7% loss as it will likely happen, we are only leaning on the probability that maybe 60-70% of the time these trade set up provide us the return we want.
I have not really ventured into the earnings or dividends however they are both positive contributors to this trade as earnings have been excellent and dividends whilst minimal, are dividends at the end of the day. We are here for the trade and play a set up off the chart. The fundamental's are just nice framing for the stock in our minds eye.
PUKA
Microsoft's Deal With Mistral AI Faces Regulatory ScrutinyMicrosoft's ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) recent collaboration with French startup Mistral AI has sparked outrage among European lawmakers, prompting calls for a thorough investigation into what is perceived as a consolidation of power by the Redmond-based company.
The European Union, already scrutinizing Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI, raised additional alarms as news broke of the tech giant's 15-million euro investment in Paris-based Mistral AI. The investment, earmarked for integrating Mistral's AI models into Microsoft's Azure cloud computing platform, has set off a wave of apprehension regarding potential antitrust violations and monopolistic practices.
Despite assurances from Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) that its investment does not confer ownership in Mistral, but rather equity in future funding rounds, skepticism persists among policymakers in Brussels. The deal has fueled concerns that Microsoft's growing influence in the European AI landscape could stifle competition and innovation, particularly among smaller startups.
The timing of the announcement, coinciding with ongoing discussions surrounding the EU's comprehensive AI Act, has further exacerbated tensions. Mistral's purported lobbying efforts for exemptions under the AI Act have drawn scrutiny, with some lawmakers questioning the authenticity of claims regarding the protection of European startups.
European Parliament members, including Brando Benefei and Kim van Sparrentak, have raised doubts about Mistral's motivations and its alignment with American-influenced tech lobbying efforts. Allegations of a concerted effort to circumvent regulations under the guise of supporting "European champions" have cast a shadow over the integrity of negotiations surrounding the AI Act.
Alexandra Geese echoed concerns over the concentration of power and resources, urging for a thorough investigation into Mistral's conduct and potential collusion with the French government. The call for scrutiny underscores broader apprehensions regarding the unprecedented convergence of money and influence in the tech industry.
As calls for investigation mount, Max von Thun of the Open Markets Institute emphasizes the urgency of assessing the partnership's implications. The perceived discrepancy between Mistral's advocacy as a "European champion" and its alignment with Microsoft's interests underscores the need for regulatory vigilance in safeguarding fair competition and innovation.
In response to inquiries, both Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) and Mistral AI have declined to comment, while the French government remains silent on the matter. With stakeholders clamoring for transparency and accountability, the EU faces mounting pressure to address concerns over tech giant influence and ensure a level playing field for all players in the rapidly evolving digital landscape.
SMCI - builds the data centers for AI and is hotter than hotSuper Microcomputer is on hard run up trend- at its all-time high, this stock is demonstrating
a high tight bull flag pattern. In a massive move SCMI is up 180% YTD five months so on pace for
400% annualized. Most experts expect more of the same. It is currently resting in consolidation
( the tight channel of the pattern) The zero-lag MACD shows the lines about to cross over the
histogram. I will watch this stock for either a bullish continuation or a pullback. Its
fundamentals are outstanding and its collaboration with NVDA will carry it far. I will wait
for a great entry and take a big bite. This stock's P/E makes it an incredible bargain.
$MSFT Short idea NASDAQ:MSFT is showing bearish divergence on the RSI on the daily timeframe. We also see that price action has started to consolidate and the shorter term moving averages starting to curl. The $400 whole number would be a good entry to take MSFT short.
Short under $400 on MSFT.
Microsoft Replicating 1987 SPX ChartSince Microsoft bought ChatGPT back in March 2023, the price of NASDAQ:MSFT stock has gone on to replicate the same pattern as the 1987 S&P500 stock market rally.
Does it mean anything all by itself? No. It still needs a catalyst for the drop to happen. The 1987 stock market crash had many triggers and catalysts and the drop was a sharp 40% from August 28th, 1987 to October 19th 1987.
What would cause a sharp 40% drop in NASDAQ:MSFT ? You all could type in your guess in a reply to this chart. It could come about under a variety of situations, but it would take an act of Government regulation or a major sea-change in laws or the business environment.
When you see people posting "overlays" of the market to past debacles, you will find almost NONE of them work.
Last year in January I posted a pattern where NASDAQ:TSLA was mimicking the fundamental and technical price pattern that NYSE:MCD McDonalds had from over a decade ago when it fell 75% on a rough patch for its business. It turned out to be identical and NASDAQ:TSLA rallied over 150% last year just exactly the same as happened to $MCD. I'll post the link down below for you to view.
The overlay here between NASDAQ:MSFT and the 1987 SP:SPX is pretty amazing but we have no catalysts to make it drop. Stay tuned on any weakness and look for cheap hedges (long term puts out to July-Oct-Dec for this year). Don't spend more than 1% of an account to hedge a position, but if you hedge it correctly you can protect against a large decline without much cost to a portfolio.
Here's hoping this pattern doesn't 'pan-out' because it would be or could be very disruptive to the markets.
Wishing you all health and success in the markets this year and thanks to TradingView for all of the great tools for doing research!
Cheers,
Tim
Friday, February 23, 2024 8:59PM EST
The Sky's the Limit for MicrosoftNASDAQ:MSFT Microsoft (MSFT) Has been consolidating for the past month and has broken through to the upside. Anticipate this bullish momentum to bring new all time highs for the tech titan!
Let's dive into the key factors that make Microsoft a compelling investment opportunity.
Cloud Services: Microsoft Azure is a leading cloud platform, competing head-to-head with Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google Cloud. As more businesses move their operations to the cloud, Microsoft is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend. The company's cloud services are expected to drive substantial revenue growth in the future.
Artificial Intelligence: Microsoft has been making significant investments in AI, with its AI-powered products like Cortana, Bing, and Office 365. The company's recent acquisition of Nuance Communications further strengthens its position in the AI space. The potential for AI to revolutionize various industries makes Microsoft's focus on this area a key growth driver.
Gaming and Entertainment: Microsoft's Xbox gaming console and Game Pass subscription service have been gaining popularity among gamers. The company's acquisition of ZeniMax Media, the parent company of Bethesda Softworks, further bolsters its gaming portfolio. As the gaming industry continues to expand, Microsoft is well-positioned to benefit from this growth.
Strong Financials: Microsoft boasts a robust balance sheet with a healthy cash flow and a strong history of dividend growth. The company's financial strength provides a solid foundation for future growth and allows it to invest in new technologies and acquisitions.
Valuation: While Microsoft's stock price has experienced a significant run-up in recent months, many analysts believe that there is still room for growth. The company's strong fundamentals and growth prospects make it an attractive investment opportunity, even at current valuation levels.
Microsoft - It's That SimpleHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Microsoft.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
In 2019 Microsoft stock started creating a major bullish trendline which was tested again in 2020 and also the beginning of 2023. Furthermore Microsoft also broke out of a massive ascending triangle formation and is now just looking extremely bullish. If Microsoft retest the previous breakout area mentioned in the analysis, we will be looking for long continuation setups.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Microsoft's €3.2 Billion AI Investment: A Boon for GermanyMicrosoft (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSFT ) announced a staggering €3.2 billion investment over the next two years primarily directed towards bolstering Germany's artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. This landmark investment, the largest by the U.S. software giant in Germany over the past four decades, signifies a resounding vote of confidence in Germany's innovation potential amid economic uncertainties.
Microsoft's ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) President, Brad Smith, unveiled the ambitious plan, emphasizing the company's unwavering confidence in Germany's position as a technological powerhouse. With a focus on doubling the capacity of AI and data center infrastructure, Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) aims to propel Germany to the forefront of AI-driven innovation, leveraging its rich legacy of technological prowess. Smith's statement underscores Germany's pivotal role in spearheading technological advancements, particularly in AI applications, despite facing challenges such as a significant skill gap in the AI sector.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz hailed Microsoft's ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) investment as a testament to Germany's enduring appeal as a global business hub. Against the backdrop of a projected economic downturn, Scholz lauded the move as a catalyst for revitalizing Germany's economic landscape, aligning with his efforts to enhance the nation's business appeal. Despite acknowledging the prevailing economic challenges, Scholz expressed optimism, foreseeing a resurgence in economic growth fueled by strategic investments such as Microsoft's.
However, amidst the optimism surrounding Microsoft's landmark investment, concerns linger regarding bureaucratic hurdles and data privacy regulations. Smith's assurance of advocating for balanced and practical regulations reflects the company's commitment to navigating the regulatory landscape while maintaining global standards. Moreover, Microsoft's investment correlates with a broader trend of tech giants, including Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC and Intel, gravitating towards Germany with substantial state support, signaling the country's growing allure as a technology investment haven.
Marianne Janik, CEO of Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) Germany, provided insights into the geographical focus of the investment, hinting at the western Rhineland region and Frankfurt's banking hub as potential beneficiaries. While specifics regarding the allocation of funds remain undisclosed, Microsoft's strategic focus on key regions underscores its aim to foster localized innovation hubs, driving economic growth and technological advancement across Germany.
In conclusion, Microsoft's ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) monumental investment marks a transformative milestone in Germany's technological evolution, positioning the nation as a global leader in AI innovation. As Germany navigates through economic headwinds, Microsoft's unwavering commitment serves as a beacon of hope, heralding a new era of technological resurgence and economic prosperity propelled by AI-driven innovation.
MSFT to $395Overview
Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) appears to be within an ascending channel and has reached the resistance line that coincides with the peak of an impulse wave (Wave 3). Utilizing the impulse waves within the channel, a price target of $395 seems probable and may provide a decent Puts trade. If the ascending channel provides textbook formation then a low of $365 is also possible, however, volume and selling pressure should be carefully watched around the $395 price level as steeper declines will require more validation.
The following technical indicators give me confidence that significant selling pressure will soon occur:
Volume -- except for a single outlier in December -- has been steadily decreasing since the channel developed.
On-Balance Volume appears to have reached a ceiling that will need to be carefully watched in the event of a breakout.
Relative Strength Index shows an RSI (green) retreating from the overbought zone. While it is experiencing a slight uptick back to the MA (red), there is still plenty of room until the indicators approach oversold or for the RSI to cross from beneath.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has just crossed its signal line (red) from above and is nosediving downward. In addition, it is showing a divergence as the peaks of the MACD are inverted from the peaks of MSFT's share price.
Nasdaq-100 Index Futures. Bearish Channel In DevelopmentAI-related companies lost $190 billion in stock market value late on Tuesday after Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOG and Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD delivered quarterly results that failed to impress investors who had sent their stocks soaring.
The selloff following the tech giants' reports after the bell underscored investors' elevated expectations following an AI-fueled stock market rally in recent months that propelled their shares to record highs with the promise of incorporating the technology across the corporate landscape.
Alphabet dropped 5.6% after the Google-parent's December-quarter ad revenue missed expectations.
Alphabet also said its spending on data centers to support its AI plans would jump this year, highlighting the costs of its fierce competition against AI rival Microsoft.
While Google Cloud revenue growth slightly topped Wall Street targets, boosted by interest in AI, Microsoft's Azure grew faster.
Microsoft beat analyst estimates for quarterly revenue as new AI features helped attract customers to its cloud and Windows services. However, its stock fell 0.7% in extended trade after briefly hitting an intra-day record high earlier on Tuesday.
Optimism about AI pushed Microsoft's stock market value above $3 trillion this month, eclipsing Apple NASDAQ:AAPL .
Chipmaker Advanced Micro tumbled 6% after its forecast for first-quarter revenue missed estimates, even as it projected strong sales for its AI processors.
Shares of Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , which have surged 27% in January after more than tripling last year on AI optimism, also gave back some of those gain in extended trade, last down over 2%.
Server maker Super Micro Computer NASDAQ:SMCI , another company that has benefited from AI-related demand, dropped over 3%. Earlier on Tuesday, it had climbed to a record high after delivering amazing quarterly results the day before.
The main technical graph for Nasdaq-100 Micro E-Mini Futures CME_MINI:MNQ1! illustrates that bearish channel is in development in this time, where 17800 points is the upper (resistance) side and 17000 points level becomes attractive to watch.
3-months mid-term VIX Futures spread (the difference between front, February, 2024 VIX Futures contract CBOE:VXG2024 and May, 2024 VIX Futures contract CBOE:VXK2024 that is 3 months ahead) still is in Bearish mode, saying there's no panic yet on the streets.
50/200-hours MACD says btw, bearish sentiment becomes more active.
💻Microsoft Corp💻 is Ready to Decrease➖15%🏃♂️ Microsoft Corp is moving near the 🟡 Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ)($437-$422) 🟡.
💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between two Consecutive Peaks .
🌊From the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that the macro can complete five main impulse waves in 🟡 Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ)($437-$422) 🟡.
🔔I expect the Microsoft Corp to at least fall to the 🟢 Support zone($368_$342) 🟢 after the completion of wave 5 and the breaking of the Uptrend line .
Microsoft Corp (MSFTUSD) Analyze, Daily time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
buy microsoftmicrosoft is doing good with gamepass and chat gpt also.
This bad boy is about to blow to 315 soon>
I see some exciting pattern from the chart.
Looks like earning will be nice also.
Possible Significant RecoveyThis scenario is VERY tricky, let me explain why it could go either way, drastically. I'll separate the bull/bear ideas. The nasdaq looks like it could bounce off the BB bottom for a decent recovery, but, it's to see what happens tomorrow.
Reasons for Bull Rally
This month inflation report is cooler.
With a lower CPI, markets will anticipate a 50 basis point or 25 basis point hike, meaning a more dovish stance from the Fed.
Reasons for Selling
This month inflation report is still high or hotter than expected.
With a higher CPI, markets will anticipate a 75 basis point or higher hike, meaning a more hawkish stance from the Fed.
July 29th Q2 GDP comes in negative, officially putting the US in recession.
The negativity possibility is significant. July economic data can break markets like not seen before. This is one to watch. I understand this is the 1M chart, so any move upward will be quick. I don't see markets rising for a few months, but, who knows.
