Bitcoin - An Epic Move Awaits!Bitcoin gained 13% in H1 2025, outperforming Ethereum and Solana, which dropped ~25% and ~17% respectively—highlighting BTC's strength in turbulent market conditions.
Institutional wedge: spot-BTC ETFs saw huge inflows—BlackRock’s took in $336M, and total crypto product inflows approached $45B+ this year.
AI models foresee BTC holding $105K+ by end-June, with ChatGPT pointing to $118K and Grok forecasting $108K, based on momentum and ETF flows.
We see BTC holding the 20 MA and spiking to new all time highs.
MSTR
Bitcoin Brewing - A large move is coming!Bitcoin has been under pressure over the last few trading sessions.
Despite the equity markets going higher this asset is stuck in a holding pattern.
We are currently forming a wedge pattern that has given us a directional bias to trade.
Price action is at a 50/50 in terms of falling lower or rallying higher.
Being the fact that the bulls have been forming higher lows & higher highs, we have to give them due respect.
However understand this BTC is showing some distribution signs and is likely going to have a decent selloff within the next 15-45days. We may have 1 more spike higher but we may not.
1 note of interest is the 7day & 20 day moving average just signaled a bearish crossover which is something you need to monitor closely.
I do think the upside is limited to about 115K if we have 1 more move higher.
MSTR I Pullback and More Potential GrowthWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
2024 Santa Rally and More - Up/Down/SidewaysIt's that time of year again. The final trading weeks of 2024 and the technical "Santa Rally" (trading through Christmas and New Year's) is upon us.
Unfortunately the FED put a bit of a cap on the extremely optimistic and borderline euphoria that was bubbling over going into the FOMC Rate Decision.
100 bps of cuts, yet the US10Y (10 year yield) has virtually moved in the exact opposite direction. Inflation is now a concern and this is a big reason for the FED's "hawkish cut" in December. The market will have to figure out how 1-2 cuts in 2025 looks compared to 4-6 cuts that was anticipated.
I don't think the 1 day FED move is enough of a correction to justify loading up on longs, so I'm looking for 200 EMA tests and better prices all around. If I don't get them, I suppose I'll just wait longer :)
Happy Holidays to everyone
Thanks for watching!!!
Market Snapshot - MSTR is a monster + NVDA earnings and HedgingNVDA beat top and bottom estimates after market today.
Due to it's 3.58T market cap, let's see where the SPY/QQQ are trading Thursday post NVDA earnings.
MSTR making headlines as one of the top traded stocks (behind NVDA) and it continues to surge and even outperform BTC in a big way - great gains but be careful of the rocket ship runs because they tend to end violently.
I also spend time reviewing my full watchlist in stocks, options, futures, and forex.
Thanks for watching!!!
Bitcoin is about to go boom! Bitcoin has been putting is some near term lower highs and lower lows.
The daily chart trend is starting to breakdown and show signs of distribution.
The weekly chart trend is still ok but even if we had a flush to 40k the Weekly chart would still display higher lows.
The point of this higher low excercise is to define trend and know that trends can often have a large range.
That being said I think a short setup in BTC is brewing. a retest of the 50 & 100 MA will likely prove to be very strong resistance as we keep losing the key larger term MA's.
As banks and potentially the stock market lose some momentum its going to be interesting to see how crypto is going to hold up.
Bitcoin is about to make a large move!BTC has lost some key technical support levels.
The weakness displayed in crypto has come while the stock markets have been incredibly strong
Its never a good sign when you see BTC getting rejected at double top.
The previous ATH at 69k seems to be really keeping price action in check.
BTC has 2 channels converging around 57k - 59K.
Don't be surprised if we see more sellers in the next couple weeks.
Util we break the bullish neckline, the 94K price is only a dream.
Is Bitcoin ready for the next leg up?Bitcoin is fighting the short term trend.
its lost the 7 day moving average over the last few sessions. Bulls retraced and tried getting above.
The have not been successful at confirming above the key trend.
A 4 hour Head & Shoulders pattern has triggered but on watch for a potential bullish reversal.
Crypto stocks & Bitcoin slaughtered!Stocks like Coin, Mara, MSTR all got s=demolished this week on the back of BTC having a 11% pullback from highs.
Bitcoin is forming a weekly reversal candle that is extremely bearish.
This candle could indicate a near term top in the crypto market.
If we get a weekly hammer reversal expect a 50% retrace on the bearish candle, this means some crypto stocks could be in for a dead cat bounce.
MicroStrategy MSTR #MSTR $MSTR Let's take a look at one of my favorite ways to trade bitcoin, especially one of my favorite ways to trade Bitcoin on leverage by using 1x margin somewhere as simple as robin hood.
Bitcoin and MSTR are so heavily correlated these days that its rather straight forward of a play to trade MSTR as if it's your Bitcoin vessel.
MSTR. is also in a great range to buy IMO. Especially if looking forward more than just the next few days/weeks.
Its Highly likely you see MSTR run up into the $800-$1200 ranges over the next 12-36 months based on how and when BTC takes off.
💦 $MSTR filled (most of) the gaps [$BTC's time to get Bullish?]The power of gann fanns, fibs and gap analysis doesn't continues to impress me more and more everyday! Sure, one can't really know what the future holds, and this weekend and 2 next weeks leading into the Jacksonhole FED announcements might spill more blood in the streets, but in my best estimation, it's really time to start getting bullish again! The signs are there that the liquidity bubble is being filled, gap by gap. So if you're not accumulating at these levels, you're definitely making a mistake! What the video for more explanation of my thoughts on what we're seeing in the charts with technical analysis ... what follows is more of a soapbox brain dump than anything.
As I predicted last week, we were in for either one of two clear scenarios.
A) we fill the gaps up in the $300-350 range left behind in August. Or B) we fill the gaps down in the 200-250 range, which we were opened back in July. It was 50/50 which way we might go at my last estimation, and the market has decided to fill the punish the bull's this month a bit more, and keep the apparent bearing momentum driving home.
We still DO HAVE ONE **nasty gap** remaining down in the 100-120 range too, which is a 50% drop from current levels! OMG! Painful to thunk... right? If these gaps do almost always get fill though... mustn't it be accepted and acted upon as fact? sometimes they're filled in a day, sometimes in a month, sometimes in a year. Sometimes in 10 or 20 years... only when we really have a serious depression on hands... eventually! Hard to say... And so maybe we've hit the bottom for now, maybe we're not. But the closer we get, the strong the gap's magnetic pull might be... so... either way, as $MSTR is getting it's ass handed to them now with all the bad news, Michael Saylor lawsuits and more... it feels like maybe we'll get through the $100 gap sooner than later... and $BTC holders will suffer as a result, unfortunately. But tis' life. ACCUMULATE ALL THE WAY DOWN! and BE CAREFUL WITH YOUR LEVERAGE! DCA in and take your profits along the way on the pumps.
So where is the signal to get bullish in all this mess? Well. There's only ONE BEARISH GAP LEFT ON THE CHARTS. *Look* at all the gaps left now on the upside!. So we will see scenario B) play out, sooner than later. That's the reason to get bullish, ofc!
Anyway, it's the reason I'm getting bullish... since I believe that all gaps will be filled (market makers... make the market, and will move it back to where they've left liquidity on the table...) and i'm accumulating! I'm betting on it that $300-350 get filled. Also that we will see $390, $490, and all the gaps back up to the tippy top around $1200 filled as well.
Or is it just coincidence that Blackrock and other massive investment firms have been buying up $MSTR in massive quantities? Are they not just as likely pushing the price back down and scooping up our shares and FUDing us so we sell them ours? (I mean... don't you think!?). Look at the SEC filings; look how many companies now own more than 7% of the public float of $MSTR. Do you really think they're making a losing bet? I don't, they have deep pockets... very deep pockets. What feels like pain to us, is just stacking sats to them. The patient will win. And we all know there *is* a bright future for $BTC. Nothing, fundamentally, nothing has changed in that thesis.... at all.
Sorry for such a crappy write up... but my day's coming to an end. Wanted to share my thoughts... hope they at least gave you something to think about, even if you disagree. :) Thanks for reading! Be safe out there!
Distribution signals flash at EU Open [$CRO, $MSTR, $BTC]EU Open today bring more sideways action for us all. +-1-2% moves over night, nothing much, all things considering. The market has clearly tightened it's range for the past 2 days, anyway. Volatility is still expected, as we remain sandwhiched between two massive gappers on either side of $MSTR current levels in the $210-235 $300-325.
$DXY continues to show strength, but given the double top, it's possible for a short-term reversal, if not a all out dump in September when the Jacksonhole rate hike announcements are made. Stay tuned!
My custom Accumulation / Distribution scripts are warning that the market is likely over heated (on the 15m scale), which aligns with the fact that BTC also rejected it's approach to the golen pocket formed from the most recent dump.
All this is to say, i'm still holding only my $CRO short position for the time being. Last night my take-profit limits only managed to cover 25% of my open position as I slept, when Asia brought us down into the .126 range before retracing back to current levels as EU opened.
With only 4% gains at the moment, it's nothing to write home about, but i'll be looking for good opporutnities to accumulate more shorts, as my overall thesis remains about the same as it was yesterday. Lots of resistence around the .13 levels for $CRO. And lots of resistence for BTC at 21450-21500 (golden pocket). Same like 282-285 for $MSTR.
Watch the $DXY! If it continues to rise quickly, expect asset prices to further collapse!
$BTC faces resistance exactly where expected [$CRO, Golden R.]Nothing more satisfying than charting out FIB lines and fining the place where prices are stuck aligns exactly with the FIB golden pocket... what else is there to be said? Waiting out the results for the day of my $CRO trade; short still and holding. No more accumulation, watching $DXY and $MSTR as we go!
Dollar gains, Dollar Games [$DXY, $BTC, $CRO, $MSTR] i'm still holding my $CRO short trade, but since my last update the $DXY reversed off it's double top high's from yesterday, $MSTR has come down significantly and yet much of the market is mixed. Big moves for $BTC incoming!
$CRO price continues to stagnate as it's hitting strong resistance zone and the top of the daily distribution fann range. Check my previous update for more on that... GL out there!
$MSTR Lines of Liquidity [$CRO short in action, $DXY pump]I'm still working out how trading view recording works, and it seems the upload failed, so i'm not sure exactly what will be connected to this post, but let's see....
$MSTR opened strong today on the back of a slightly higher $BTC since yesterday's US market close. My hypothesis remains that volatility will be the name of the game in the coming days, as we are sandwhiched between two pre-market gaps. One from last Thu-Fri session at 300-325, which was nearly 5%, and multiple smaller ones down near 210-230. The shorter term gaps are more likely to be filled in the coming hours/days than the longer term-ones which have already failed to fill. But they'll all be filled, which means we can expect a range of at least 210-300 or 30+% moves in the coming days/weeks while we wait for summer to end and the US FED to announce it's highly anticipated rate hikes - estimated to be between 50bp and 100bp, depending on the inflation CPI numbers and other factors.
I'm active in a CRO trade, accumulating with anticipation for a move to the downside. I'm shorting through .125 - .129, with a stop loss set at .13. Looking to cover at ~.12
And I'm slowing distributing my open MSTR trade between 280-300.
The $DXY continues to pump, while $BTC remains relatively flat, which in my book indicates a divergence worthy of our close attention and a surprise up someone's sleeve. Who's playing games out there, who is it, really!?
#MSTR showing us the way for #BitcoinWill it Break the current bear flag that is forming?
How it performed during the Tech wreck (like all tech stocks)
which had no earnings , but relied on future projections of user growth ( eyeballs & clicks )
Lower prices seem inevitable if his #Bitcoin holdings go into the Red