MSTR Call Options I think this is a perfect opportunity for MSTR Calls.
Bitcoin is quiet, at a local minimum, everyone is desperate. The bottom may not be in but it's definitely close.
Options are problematic because of timing. I rarely use them but in this case I believe that the benefits far outweigh the risks.
I bought some options on friday but I'm getting some more options with 1-2 months until expiration.
MSTR
Opening (IRA): MSTR Nov 15th 121 Monied Covered Call... for a 111.20 debit.
Comments: High IV (88.8%). Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put with the built-in defense of the short call.
Back into MSTR after taking off my previous November setup in profit. (See Post Below). This has earnings on 11/6, so I'll be looking to take it off before then ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 111.20
Max Profit: 9.80
ROC at Max: 8.81%
50% Max: 4.90
ROC at 50% Max: 4.41%
MSTR is well prepared for a BOOM season -- may retest 450 soon!MSTR has corrected extensively since peaking at 450 range last July. Now, LONG POSITIONS has started accumulating at the current price range based on daily metrics.
Significant net buy volume has been registered -- almost overtaking average numbers this past few days. This a definite sign that a new base is currently being cemented for a new ascend movement soon -- for the long term.
It is currently bouncing off a 78.6 FIB level with precision - a major order block support.
Expect some significant upside volatility from the present levels.
Spotted at 325.0
TAYOR.
Safeguard funds always.
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SOME RELATED NEWS:
MicroStrategy Bought 5,445 Bitcoin for $150M Since August
The software ompany now holds nearly $4.68 billion worth of the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
By Shaurya Malwa
AccessTimeIconSep 25, 2023 at 8:25 p.m.
Updated Sep 26, 2023 at 12:40 a.m.
Software developer MicroStrategy (MSTR) purchased nearly $150 million worth of bitcoin (BTC) between Aug.1 and Sept.24, it said in a Monday regulatory filing.
"MicroStrategy, together with its subsidiaries, acquired approximately 5,445 bitcoins for approximately $147.3 million in cash, at an average price of approximately $27,053 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses," the company said in the filing.
Opened (IRA): MSTR October 18th 119 Monied Covered Call... for a 110.75 debit.
Comments: I don't do a ton of single name in my IRA, but with earnings in the rear view and 30-day IV at 81.7%, taking a "poos and giggles" trade here, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a +25 delta short put, with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 110.75
Max Profit: 8.25
ROC at Max: 7.45%
50% Max: 4.13
ROC at 50% Max: 3.72%
MicroStrategy’s Bold Bitcoin Play: $700 Mln in BTC AcquisitionIn a move that highlights its unwavering commitment to Bitcoin, MicroStrategy, led by its CEO Michael Saylor, has announced a fresh $700 million debt offering to acquire more Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ). This marks the second such offering in just one month as the company aggressively expands its Bitcoin holdings. Known for its bullish stance on Bitcoin, MicroStrategy has now accumulated a staggering 244,800 BTC as part of its Treasury Reserve Asset (TRA) strategy.
The Latest Debt Offering
The newly proposed $700 million debt offering comes in the form of Convertible Senior Notes, which will be available only to qualified institutional investors. MicroStrategy plans to use the proceeds from this offering to redeem $500 million of its 6.125% Senior Secured Notes due 2028. After settling these debts, the remaining funds will be directed toward acquiring additional Bitcoin and other general corporate purposes.
This is not MicroStrategy's first foray into issuing convertible notes to fund its Bitcoin strategy. The company has previously conducted similar offerings, raising billions of dollars to support its growing Bitcoin portfolio. In June of this year, it made an $800 million offering, followed by a $1.1 billion Bitcoin purchase, which added 18,300 BTC to its reserves.
MicroStrategy’s Unstoppable Bitcoin Streak
MicroStrategy began its Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) acquisition spree in August 2020, becoming one of the first publicly traded companies to adopt Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) as a primary reserve asset. Over the years, the company has consistently used debt to bolster its Bitcoin reserves, reinforcing its belief in Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.
This strategy has often paid off for the company, especially in times of Bitcoin price appreciation. Most notably, MicroStrategy’s stock (MSTR) has soared as a direct result of its Bitcoin investments. After recent acquisitions, MSTR’s stock price surged by 18.74%, outpacing the broader market and gaining value even when other stocks faced volatility.
Bitcoin’s Current Market Dynamics
Despite MicroStrategy's massive Bitcoin purchase plans, the cryptocurrency itself has experienced some downward pressure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) is down 2% after showing strength in previous weeks. This pullback is intriguing as it comes amid positive sentiment surrounding Bitcoin's recent performance and broader adoption.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 48, indicating a potential for a bullish reversal. The key pivot point for Bitcoin remains at $70,000, a level that traders and analysts are closely watching. If Bitcoin can break through this resistance, it could set off another significant rally, supported by the increasing institutional interest exemplified by companies like MicroStrategy.
Institutional Impact and MSTR Stock
MicroStrategy’s continued commitment to Bitcoin reflects a growing trend of institutional adoption of the cryptocurrency. With its relentless accumulation of Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), MicroStrategy is making a bold bet on the long-term potential of the digital asset. As more institutions and corporations follow suit, Bitcoin could further cement its status as a mainstream financial asset.
For MicroStrategy, its aggressive Bitcoin strategy has not only bolstered its stock but also differentiated the company from its peers. MSTR has consistently outperformed other tech stocks, thanks in large part to its Bitcoin holdings. As the company continues to issue convertible debt and acquire more Bitcoin, investors will keep a close eye on both the price of Bitcoin and the value of MSTR stock.
Conclusion
MicroStrategy's latest $700 million debt offering underscores its confidence in Bitcoin’s future. With 244,800 CRYPTOCAP:BTC already in its reserves and plans to accumulate more, the company is betting on Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) as a core part of its corporate strategy. While Bitcoin faces near-term volatility, the long-term outlook remains promising, especially with institutional players like MicroStrategy continuing to lead the charge. If Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) can breach the $70,000 pivot, MicroStrategy’s bullish strategy could prove even more lucrative for both the company and its investors.
Bitcoin is about to go boom! Bitcoin has been putting is some near term lower highs and lower lows.
The daily chart trend is starting to breakdown and show signs of distribution.
The weekly chart trend is still ok but even if we had a flush to 40k the Weekly chart would still display higher lows.
The point of this higher low excercise is to define trend and know that trends can often have a large range.
That being said I think a short setup in BTC is brewing. a retest of the 50 & 100 MA will likely prove to be very strong resistance as we keep losing the key larger term MA's.
As banks and potentially the stock market lose some momentum its going to be interesting to see how crypto is going to hold up.
Bitcoin Outlook For September-December 200k-400k Trend
Bitcoin Outlook For September-December
Today we take a look at the Bitcoin price and we also cross check this with the spot Gold price.
Gold is a leading indicator for where a bulk of major capital flows when navigating the market and this is due to Gold being a safe haven next to Government bonds to park capital when you know governments will start forcing rate cuts with chance of QE + YCC.
Historically Gold clearly shows us the rallies prior the capital rotating into risk on assets, we saw it in 2017, 2020, and now we see it in 2024. If history repeats this would reprice Bitcoin to over $200,000 - $400,000 and this would start the next phase of the bull market.
Spot ETF Flows are strong, institutions have tested marketing strategies, Blackrock is currently pushing to enable the derivatives layers on top of the Spot ETF's.
I have compiled and tested Spot ETF data and I have found the Spot ETF to have a 3.32 impact for every dollar. To get to the price target of 400k total Spot ETF AUM would need to total 363.19B (Currently $52.04 billion).
Conclusion
This is feeling more and more like $2,200 during July 2017 shortly after prices rallied to $5,690 by October 2017, a similar repeat would take the price to $150,000.
Institutions are accumulating slowly based on the dips indicating they are trying to keep the price under an amount like $100,000 that could trigger a rush back into Bitcoin by retail. Balances of > 100 Bitcoin and of > 1,000 are slowly starting to rise.
Balances of > 0.1 & > 1.0 & > 0.01 have started to trend sideways reducing each month indicating a sense of "boredom" where retail is selling and institutions are accumulating these bored coins.
MSTR remains to be one of the bullish stocks relating to Bitcoin and when institutions launch a large marketing campaign and start mutual fund allocations the MSTR / Multiple to NAV will experience large volatility.
The cycles are similar but the game has changed, all the money in the world has access to the Bitcoin market and there's less than 3,000,000 coins left to purchase. Once the next stage of this market begins it will be met with shock by retail and news around the world.
Extra Math Notes
Ratio of Exchange Balance to Active Supply:
3,000,000 #BTC (Exchange Balance)
Ratio ≈ 0.301
9,964,872.56 BTC (Active Supply)
Spot ETF AUM has a 3.32 Price Impact
400k = 363.19b
I have figured out this formula by taking the exchange balances / Active Supply of Bitcoin that is lively the last years and not lost or total supply, getting the ratio and figuring out how much the Spot ETF moves the Bitcoin price.
Bitcoins Market Cap Is Only $281 Billion (Projection to $1M)
Never wanted to make a post about this until I had my positions set in stone, its more of a log book (future time capsule) but who knows how information could spread.
The public consensus is pricing Bitcoin incorrectly and Institutions have jumped on this opportunity as in hindsight it would be very obvious we have calculated it wrong for the last cycles.
Gold is priced by the total actively traded known supply in the market / price
(Active Supply × Price)
How is Bitcoin priced?
(Total Supply × Price)
Clearly this is very wrong and miss leading as if you compare Bitcoin to Gold it suddenly becomes inflated based on the standard commodity calculations.
How do we get the Gold equivalent Bitcoin Market Cap?
(Active Supply × Price)
Utilizing *Realized Cap HODL Waves* *Glass Node* we get an active supply of 4,750,000 BTC and this shrinking and the upper range of the Bitcoin supply over the last years that is active and not lost.
4,750,000BTC × $59,300USD / BTC= $281,675,000,000USD
Institutions have known this since the Stock To Flow model and why the S2F gets ridiculed its on the track to calculating Bitcoin correctly.
Now what happens to an asset under $300b in market cap and Spot ETF Options launch and the largest retirement funds in the world ramp the allocations and switch out Gold / Equities into Bitcoin? there's a reason institutions are slowly testing marketing / retirement fund allocations making sure there is no hick ups as when the green light is on and real capital flows into Bitcoin its going to make Nvidia look normal.
MSTR Top 10 SPY Company in 2025.
Michael Saylor has taken the all in method in accumulating Bitcoin and allowing large institutions to front run the cheap credit cards using senior convertible debt bonds.
He bypassed the SEC regulations and jumped in front of BlackRock. Now Blackrock late to the party is slowly allocating global pension funds to the IBIT fund while the recessions fear spreads in the market.
Bitcoin has been in a sideways accumulation period for 6.01months, the last time Bitcoin has been in a sideways accumulation this long was in late 2012-2013. When the market turns around and comes to reality that Institutions are allocating for the next decade and aren't planning on selling the Bitcoin price will start to run harder than 2017-2020 combined.
MSTR - Will become the Berkshire Hathaway of Bitcoin's world.
MSTR owns 266,500 Bitcoin
Blackrock owns 357,771 Bitcoin
Fidelity owns 179,267
Its pretty clear retail are making the biggest mistake in the market cycle drip feeding the Bitcoin like its not about to be repriced over $200,000.
And its clear why Michael Saylor stock split MSTR.
When does the market turn? my guess is when Blackrock get the options approved on their Spot ETFs. Once this is initiated it will allow them to essentially rob the blind who short Bitcoin and they will start rising allocations betting on their fund and using the profits to buy even more Bitcoin. Welcome to Wall Street Bitcoin.
BTCUSD | MSTR Adopted FASB | Japan CT Dip, Panic Selling. Buy.
Japan's situation has finally cracked spooking the entire market, liquidations across the board, MSTR full speed ahead purchasing, 10-1 split should be active by the next days.
Rate's globally have peaked and will be forced lower to combat unemployment and QE could start as soon as year end.
The Bitcoin monthly RSI has repeated the ISM cycle of 5 dots before movements violently into the upside direction, we are now on the 4th dot with a global liquidation event now with the people who were wrong about the recession in 2023-2024 calling for it to finally be "now".
Not understanding a recession means rate cuts race to zero + global liquidity is about to receive injections multiples more than we saw in Covid & 2009 combined.
Note when Bitcoin passes the 5 blue monthly dot stage the price has never ever returned to the price point. Potentially the last time in history we will see Bitcoin under $55,000 and MSTR under $1,300 (not counting the 10-1 stock split).
Full speed ahead Bitcoin.
MicroSrategy Shows Bullish Triangle-Brekout In ViewLooking at MicroStrategy, there is a very nice recovery from the 1190 area, but prices are not yet breaking out. Currently, there is some consolidation near the upper side of this contracting range around 1660, which could represent the upper levels for sub-wave D of a trinagle. Triangles are structured by a-b-c-d-e subwaves, so I assume that the price can still pullback a bit, and possibly fill the gap near 1400, from where I would be looking for the next move higher.
GH
MSTR | Potential Reversal We are currently observing interesting price action at the Purple Line - Strong Pivot level on MSTR. The price has been in a clear downtrend but recently found support at this key level. Here’s a breakdown of what’s happening:
✅ Key Support Level: The Purple Line - Strong Pivot level has provided support, preventing further decline for now.
⚠️ Price Action: After a strong bullish bounce, the price shows indecision with small-bodied candlesticks.
✅ Volume Analysis: There is an increasing relative volume average, indicating heightened interest and activity at the support level. The bounce was accompanied by a significant volume spike, suggesting strong buying interest.
➡️ Potential Trading Strategy:
Wait for Confirmation: Look for further bullish confirmation, such as a continuation of higher volume on bullish candlesticks or a break above recent highs.
Entry Point: Consider entering a long position if bullish confirmation is observed, with a stop loss placed just below the Purple Line - Strong Pivot level to manage risk.
Target: Potential upside targets include $1500 (Gray dashed line)
Caution: If the price fails to sustain above the Purple Line - Strong Pivot level and volume declines, the downtrend may resume. Monitor the price action and volume closely for further signals.
Stay tuned for more updates and happy trading! 🤘🏻🤑
MICROSTRATEGY Bottom on Inverse Head and Shoulders. Eyeing $2000MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) is about to complete the Right Shoulder of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which is a bottom formation technically. The Head was formed on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), a long-term Support for the stock, while the price is now testing the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Resistance.
We saw this exact same behaviour on MSTR's previous bottom (May 01) and right when it broke above the 4H MA50, it peaked marginally above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, we expect a similar development and our Target is $2000.
Notice also that right when the price was testing the 4H MA50 last time, the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, which is what it is currently doing. Strong similarities everywhere.
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$MSTR tricky path to $3000+?This looks like the most interesting long setup in crypto mining should the opportunity present itself.
In the short term, I think price will likely continue up into the $1400-1500 range. If price can't break through that level, I think it'll be a great short.
If you look at the correction so far, we've only had 2 legs down, I think the 3rd is yet to come which will bring us into the sub $1000 support zone.
If we get down there, I think that'll create a great buying opportunity and price should surge higher into the $3000+ resistance level.
So if you buy the bottom and sell towards the top, there's 3x gains to be had.
I'll likely play this in both spot and options as there will be great money to be made if you can time this well.
Good luck.
Bitcoin is about to make a large move!BTC has lost some key technical support levels.
The weakness displayed in crypto has come while the stock markets have been incredibly strong
Its never a good sign when you see BTC getting rejected at double top.
The previous ATH at 69k seems to be really keeping price action in check.
BTC has 2 channels converging around 57k - 59K.
Don't be surprised if we see more sellers in the next couple weeks.
Util we break the bullish neckline, the 94K price is only a dream.
MicroStrategy Makes it to The MSCI World Stock IndexMicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ), recognized as the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has recently been included in the MSCI World Stock Index, which has significantly enhanced the liquidity of its stocks. The company's stock price has consistently outperformed Bitcoin's price over the past year and into early 2024. Notably, on May 14, the NASDAQ:MSTR stock price surged by 4.15%, hovering just below the $1,300 mark. This development underscores the increasing convergence of cryptocurrency exposure within traditional investment portfolios, as billions of dollars are either monitored against or used as benchmarks against MSCI's global index.
Michael Saylor, the co-founder of MicroStrategy, is renowned for his strong support of Bitcoin. As of April 26, MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) possessed a significant holding of 214,400 Bitcoins. Over the last year, MicroStrategy's stock price has quadrupled, surpassing the increase in Bitcoin's price by an impressive 130%. However, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. this year has posed a challenge to MicroStrategy's market dominance.
In March, Kerrisdale Capital Management LLC publicized its decision to short the stock, attributing it to the rapid growth of MicroStrategy outpacing the surge in the digital asset's price. Presently, MicroStrategy has received four analyst buy ratings, with an average 12-month price target of $1,678.75, which is almost 30% higher than the current stock level, as per data compiled by Bloomberg.
Index provider MSCI has included U.S. bitcoin investor MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) in its list of 42 additions to its widely tracked world index, while more firms from India have joined its emerging markets index following a quarterly review. These additions are closely monitored as billions of dollars invested in exchange-traded funds track MSCI indexes, and they are utilized as performance benchmarks for fund managers.
The three largest additions to the MSCI emerging markets index will be U.S. companies: software firm and bitcoin investor MicroStrategy, data storage company Pure Storage (NYSE:PSTG), and mechanical and electrical construction firm Emcor. These changes, effective at market close on May 31, typically drive a notable increase in turnover.
MSTR MicroStrategy Incorporated Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold MSTR on this potential fair value retracement:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MSTR MicroStrategy Incorporated prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 1250usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-5-17,
for a premium of approximately $120.25.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
MSTR is a good buy now with $18B market capEven though MSTR holds $12B Bitcoin, they have demonstrated that when bitcoin is doing well, the market cap is almost 2x Bitcoin holdings.
This could be a great way to leverage yourself safely and pick up the dip at about 3x gains (if Bitcoin moves up of course).
For every 5%, MSTR will move 10-15%.
Good Luck!
MSTR Announces Q1 2024 Financial Results; Holds 214,400 BTC**Title: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Investment Strategy: Navigating Volatility and Seizing Opportunities**
MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ), the pioneering software company led by CEO Michael Saylor, continues to make headlines with its bold Bitcoin investment strategy. Amidst a backdrop of financial results and market dynamics, MicroStrategy's relentless pursuit of Bitcoin accumulation underscores its commitment to digital asset adoption. With recent updates on its Bitcoin holdings, financial performance, and market analysis, MicroStrategy's journey offers valuable insights into navigating volatility and seizing opportunities in the cryptocurrency space.
MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Acquisition Strategy:
MicroStrategy's latest financial report reveals a strategic focus on Bitcoin accumulation, with the company acquiring an additional 25,250 CRYPTOCAP:BTC in the first quarter of 2024. This brings MicroStrategy's total Bitcoin holdings to a staggering 214,400 CRYPTOCAP:BTC , worth approximately $13.6 billion. By leveraging proceeds from capital raises, MicroStrategy reaffirms its position as a leading corporate holder of Bitcoin, representing nearly 1% of the digital asset's total circulating supply.
Financial Performance and Market Dynamics:
Despite its robust Bitcoin holdings, MicroStrategy reported a net operating loss of $53.1 million for the first quarter of 2024. This loss, attributed to digital asset impairment charges, underscores the inherent volatility of cryptocurrency investments. However, MicroStrategy's double-digit subscription services revenue growth demonstrates the resilience of its core business, fueled by a strategic shift to cloud-based services.
Analyst Insights and Price Target Adjustments:
Analysts at Canaccord Genuity offer valuable perspectives on MicroStrategy's performance and future prospects. While maintaining a buy rating, Canaccord revised MicroStrategy's price target to $1,590 from $1,810, reflecting both the appreciation of Bitcoin and the revaluation of the software business. Despite the stock's 2.5% decline in after-hours trading, analysts remain optimistic about MicroStrategy's long-term potential.
Scarcity Value and Market Outlook:
MicroStrategy's significant Bitcoin holdings contribute to its scarcity value, offering equity investors a unique avenue for exposure to the digital asset. As the cryptocurrency landscape evolves, MicroStrategy's proactive approach positions it as a frontrunner in harnessing the potential of blockchain technology. With positive market indicators, including recent approvals of U.S. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the stage is set for continued growth and innovation in the digital asset space.
Eyes on MSTR becoming the largest US company. New Carry Trade?
MSTR meets FASB to be included in SP 500 allocation.
DTC collateral rule does not apply to MSTR making it one of the one options to buy Bitcoin.
19.32% shorted.
EPS should come out extremely elevated.
24 year MEGA trend on MSTR showing a completely new movement away from its prior values.
Japan carry trade is now in chaos meaning rebound US bond selling will occur, YCC + QE in the USA capital needs new markets, Bitcoin and MSTR is that market.
Hong Kong to launch ETF's tomorrow allowing the the other largest capital in the world to flow into Bitcoin.
Michael Saylor is a genius using non ETF collateral, forcing MSTR share buying allowing excess capital debt to use senior convertible debt to allocate to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin rises > MSTR rises + valuation > more debt corporate debt to buy Bitcoin > Bitcoin rises.
Now include MSTR into the SP500 where the higher its market cap rank is the more capital allocation is involved.
Now add the premium MSTR will be trading at from institutions looking to get BTC exposure.
The outcome is simple if Bitcoin continues to grow through this year like it has prior, MSTR will become the largest US company by market cap.
MSTR is a reserve repo for Bitcoin & a reserve bank for Bitcoin.
I'm long MSTR willing to call it early that Michael Saylor may have designed the best trade on Bitcoin in history.
Study MSTR Study NVDA - Call Option The Panic - MSTR VS NVDA
Is Bitcoin going to do what some outlandish people think?
Remember the ones who were anti semiconductors and Ai LLM?
Skeptics with MSTR are going to go through the same treatment the NVDA shorts had to.
MSTR has performed a successful break of the companies entire history showing Michael Saylor has caught onto a new trend.
MSTR Volume supports the run, there's still large short interest on MSTR from the 100-200 range still stuck.
Puts continue to pile onto MSTR as apparently the Spot ETF volumes have "peaked" at 54b AUM.
The MACD is showing a launch coiled up beyond what NVDA was.
MSTR Notional Value 1.72B
NVDA Notional Value 66.48B
Both Bitcoin & MSTR are making a retest of the long term price trend, if this fails to break back under we will see a reversion of the both.