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MSTR

100x idea - bitcoin call optionThe Trade: Buy call option on BTC or MSTR with the end of year expiration. *Potential gains: 100-150x *Odds: for you to decide, but IMO it's at least 10-20% which makes the expected return of 16 to 28x Why: I believe the BTC price to follow a predictable price cycle, driven by the halving events (every 4 years) which the halving of block reward cause a supply shortage of BTC and drive the BTC price to a new high. In the first (Nov 2012) and second(July 2016) halving, the price peaked around 1 year and 3-4 months afterwards. We had the 3rd BTC halving event in May 2020, which means we may see a peak as early as the end of Sep 2021, but I’m willing to give it time until the end of the year which makes it 1 year and 7 months after the most recent halving. How high can BTC go? I like the stock to flow cross-asset model (S2FX) by PlanB, but many people think the model is already invalidated. The S2FX model attempts to predict the price of BTC based on the stock to flow ratio of bitcoin. Stock is the existing supply of the bitcoins; flow is the current rate of new bitcoin mined in a year. Hence the stock to flow ratio is how many years will the existing stock size double. Here is the link to the model, PlanB explains this way better: google "PlanB S2FX" According to the S2FX model, we will hit a medium price of 288K dollars per coin during the current halving epoch. As of today, the BTC price is around 32k dollar per coin, which present a possible 9x gain if it will reach 288k. We can take on some risks to increase the gains and it's a bet with a beautiful outsized return, mad gains if you will. How: Call Options As call options have limited risk (lose all your option premium), but unlimited upside, this is the perfect tool to bet on BTC's potential explosive price increase from 32k to 288k by end of this year. *E.g. BTC call option with a strike price of 64k dollars and an expiration of 31 2021 is trading around 1.5k dollars per contract (1 BTC per contact). Potential profit if S2FX is right: 288k-64k = 224k (149x) Alternatively, this can be done with MSTR stock, as the company is currently holding 105k of BTC and I believe it to be trustworthy in holding on to the BTC. We can use MSTR stock price as a BTC proxy. According to my model, if MSTR maintains the current BTC holding by end of the year with 288k dollars per BTC, MSTR stock price could easily go over 3400 dollars per share, from 550 dollars as of writing. *E.g. MSTR call option with a strike price of 1400 dollars and an expiration of 21 Jan 2022 is trading around 1.6k per contract (100 shares per contract). Potential profit if S2FX is right: (3400-1400)*100=200k (125x) Position sizing/risk management How much of your portfolio should be allocated to this trade is highly individual but think about the following: Because of the huge potential gains of this trade, a 1% allocation can more than double your entire portfolio, even at 0.5% allocation can your portfolio by over 50%. I’m committing 5% of my portfolio to this trade. Stay invested & Best of Luck *no financial advice*
BNC:BLX
by TressureCave
1
Another trade on MSTR? 🤨Well, maybe MSTR will give us another good chance to trade it! Recently I traded MSTR and made the trade public to you, just check it here (not all my trades are public, as I do many): This was a very easy trade to do, and MSTR is doing something good again! The breakpoint is the 625, and the target will be the 690. If we lose the 594, then the trade won’t be valid anymore. We are jus above the 20ma/redline in the D chart. The 690 is the recent top area. Another high risk/high reward trade! If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉. See you soon, Melissa.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by UnknownUnicorn21312077
2
Bitcoin is Bullish. BITMEX:XBT Since the complete Crypto meltdown MSTR has outperformed Bitcoin off the lows. Saylor announced that MSTR has bought another $500 million worth of Bitcoin and also filed to sell up to $1 billion worth of MSTR to fund more Bitcoin purchases. MSTR now holds around 110,000 Bitcoins. Many institutions have expressed interest in Bitcoin exposure which carries great risk for them to custody the Bitcoin themselves. Being that MSTR is basically a Bitcoin holding company it seems that institutions are buying the Bitcoin dip. To keep it simple..... Number go up.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by UnknownUnicorn5478134
Let's watch MSTR! High risk - high reward! 👀MSTR just went down to close a gap, and now it looks like it wants to react. In fact, now is a good time for a bullish reversal, as we are near support levels. The problem is the 20ma, but the 4h chart looks interesting: We hit a support level, and now we have a hammer candlestick trying to reverse the trend. The RSI was overbought, but after today’s drop, it is back to normal. I wouldn’t say it is a buy right now, but we must keep our eyes open. In the daily chart we are just above the 20ma: If MSTR breaks the 560 again, it can go up for the 650 next. But if it loses the 513, then it’ll keep pushing down to the 420! . Let’s wait for a confirmation here on MSTR! Also, with the proper risk management, everything is possible ;) If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉. See you soon, Melissa.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by UnknownUnicorn21312077
1
REALISTIC RECOVERY AFTER THE MAZE - MICROSTRATEGY - MSTR - DAILYRare are the one's publicly showing that they are going all in the bitcoin investment because of its volatility. Looking at the MSTR Nasdaq "Microstrategy" curve since 2020, we see a pattern looking like any small gem crypto chart pattern on any DEFI (Decentralized Finance) platform. It went up with lot of maze, became parabolic and ended with super volumes top squeeze. After the fall we see some consolidation and later on a more realistic price increase in a flatter angle. The red horizontal zone is probably the area where the price is trying to find a support. Huge sells volumes have been defeated recently. We will probably see the price increase if it passes over this red zone with nice volumes. The end of year possibly will probably see a much more "greener" Bitcoin, will it become profitable for MSTR? ____________________________________________________________________________________ Thanks for your likes, shares and comments! Much appreciated! This is not financial advise, just some ideas shared with the community.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
MSTR in big trouble. target 350... or worse.MSTR in many ways has become a proxy for the bitcoin trade. With 91k bitcoin at an average price around 21k, the bulk of MSTR's market cap comes from it's bitcoin assets, not it's actual business. In many ways, this chart could resemble a descending triangle, but really we are just going to follow the bitcoin chart. While BTC hit my ~42k target today, I see it going down further still - perhaps as low as 30k in the coming weeks. That would imply nearly 30% more downside for bitcoin - putting MSTR around 330 from today's price. However, given the support I see aroudn 350, it is possible their actual business may kick in and offer the extra 20/share. There is also a remote, but real risk things could get substantially worse for MSTR. Due to their leveraged play of buying bitcoin with debt, it is possible (again, remote) that a precipitous drop in bitcoin price could cause certain covenants in their bonds to force liquidation at low prices on bitcoin. Depending how low, it is conceivable (I don't know the details of their offering!) this could trigger other things that may be bad for shareholder, such as a secondary or something else. These risks seem very real, although most likely they would hedge or reduce exposure as things moved in this direction. Lastly, it is worth noting the weekly chart momentum indicators on MSTR here does not look very promising either.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by tacosaurus
I like this one long termAnyone thats a fan of BTC knows of Michael Saylor and they know that this is his company and he basically is the biggest bitcoin bull there is. This stock has a heavy correlation with BTC because of their holdings and moves more tightly with it. Because I dont think we are going below 60k again on BTC and we recently had a buy up and pull back. This in my opinion is great location to be long MSTR. I have some volume areas zoned out, but personally I only look at them as areas it might pause or to use as trade location. I really dont think what drives BTC and this stock have a great deal to do with volume zones like normal stocks do, but as crypto matures it very likely will stabilize and become more predicable. There arent many shares of MSTR available either the float is reported as 7.04m shares and an incredible 100.93% being held by institutions. This means you're not going to see a lot of intraday volume like other stocks, in other words, not a lot of paper hands hold this. The options premium is very juicy on this, they are wide and low volume but I've been able to get filled in the ballpark of mid after working my limit orders a bit. Get ready to cancel and resubmit your order a few times. But I have been able to sell some thick premium in there. I own some shares in long term investment accounts and trade the options for shorter term. I only make long trades on this one though. If it gets to a point where it seems BTC might back off or hit a new resistance, its really just time to let it do its thing until it comes back near the trend line to go long again.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Rikity
2
BTCUSD to ~42k?I love bitcoin, but this run is looking pretty tired. The top may come soon - in the next few weeks as the coinbase IPO comes out. However, technically I see a lot of things getting weak in this chart. First, the bearish divergence between the RSI making lower highs while BTCUSD made higher highs. Next, we have a MACD that while turning up recently seems to be more tepid that the previous advances. In other words, buyers seem to be getting tired. I think we could find our way to the ~~ 42k range (or possibly even 30k, a full 50% retracement), lets say in the next month or two. To me, this shorter term view looks like we're heading down. Some decent mechanisms to play short include puts on MSTR, RIOT, MARA, CAN, BTBT. Ultimately I think this 59k level is the real test, but if you wanted to give some room, I would say if we confidently moved north of 62k this idea is wrong. otherwise my target remains 42k.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by tacosaurus