Get started

Mstranalysis

MSTR Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-05-24MSTR Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-05-24) Summary of Each Model’s Key Points Grok/xAI Report Technicals: Short-term and daily charts show bearish momentum but oversold conditions (5-min RSI ~22, price near lower Bollinger Band) hint at a bounce. Sentiment: Elevated VIX (22.29), negative Bitcoin-bet headlines, insider sell-offs; max pain at $400 may cap upside. Direction: Moderately Bearish with potential for a relief rally. Trade: Buy $370 call at $13.00, aiming for +25% ($16.25), stop at 20% loss ($10.40), 65% confidence. Claude/Anthropic Report Technicals: Deep bearish momentum below all EMAs; M5 RSI oversold, daily RSI near oversold. Sentiment: Rising VIX, mixed Bitcoin headlines, heavy put open interest at $350–$360. Direction: Moderately Bearish but conflicting bounce signals. Trade: No trade—confidence only 45%. Llama/Meta Report Technicals: Bearish trend on both timeframes; oversold M5 RSI. Sentiment: Elevated volatility; mixed news; max pain theory. Direction: Moderately Bearish. Trade: Buy $367.50 put (ask $12.30–bid $11.85), profit +20%, stop 50%, 70% confidence. Gemini/Google Report Technicals: Overwhelming bearish across EMAs, RSI, MACD, price breaks on high volume. Sentiment: VIX rising, negative news, skewed options flow. Direction: Strongly Bearish. Trade: Buy weekly $310 put (est. ask ~$0.70), target 100–200% gains, stop at $0.35, 65% confidence. DeepSeek Report Technicals: Bearish on both charts but oversold; mixed reversal vs. continuation signals. Sentiment: VIX up, mixed news, distant max pain. Direction: Neutral/Unclear. Trade: No trade—confidence 55%. Areas of Agreement and Disagreement Agreement Broadly bearish technical setup: price under EMAs, negative MACD, RSI oversold short term. Elevated volatility (VIX ~22) supporting larger swings. Weekly expiry options, with traders positioned for downside (heavy put OI). Disagreement Trade bias: Grok favors a call bounce; Llama and Gemini prefer deep-OTM puts; Claude and DeepSeek opt out. Strike choice: Ranges from near-the-money calls ($370) to far-OTM puts ($310). Confidence thresholds and risk/reward preferences differ, leading to divergent trade/no-trade conclusions. Conclusion and Recommendation Overall Market Direction Consensus: Bearish (various intensities from moderate to strong). Recommended Trade: Buy a naked weekly put. • Strike Selection: $355 put offers a balance of liquidity (OI 2,042), premium ($7.45 ask), and proximity to current price (downside leverage without needing an extreme move). • Expiry: 2025-05-30 weekly. • Premium: $7.45 (within or near preferred risk range). • Entry Timing: At market open. • Profit Target: +25% (~$9.31). • Stop Loss: –20% (~$5.96). • Position Size: 1 contract. • Confidence Level: 65%. Key Risks and Considerations A short-term bounce could spike implied vol and lift call skew, hurting put value. Support at $362 may hold, capping downside. Elevated volatility could widen spreads; ensure limit orders. Maintain strict stop-loss to prevent outsized premium decay losses. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "MSTR", "direction": "put", "strike": 355.0, "expiry": "2025-05-30", "confidence": 0.65, "profit_target": 9.31, "stop_loss": 5.96, "size": 1, "entry_price": 7.45, "entry_timing": "open", "signal_publish_time": "2025-05-25 09:30:00 UTC-04:00" } 📊 TRADE DETAILS 📊 🎯 Instrument: MSTR 🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT) 🎯 Strike: 355.00 💵 Entry Price: 7.45 🎯 Profit Target: 9.31 🛑 Stop Loss: 5.96 📅 Expiry: 2025-05-30 📏 Size: 1 📈 Confidence: 65% ⏰ Entry Timing: open 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-05-24 14:57:32 EDT Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by quantsignals
Strategic $MSTR Accumulation: $340 Break for Macro ContinuationDecided to start buying back some $MSTR. I’ve been waiting since late December to begin accumulating, and I initially thought it would stay above $300, forcing me to jump back in. Now that it's in an optimal buy area with enough confluence on the weekly timeframe, I’m accumulating under $250. I’ll add the last chunk once it breaks above $340. Just keep in mind there’s a strong weekly downtrend in play, but it’s already hit the first target, so I expect a bounce. If it reclaims the POC at $340, it would invalidate the downtrend. So, I'm taking my chances on a possible invalidation and a continuation of the macro trend.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by ZelfTrade
MicroStrategy $MSTR | MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet Sees 20% DropMicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR | MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet Sees 20% Drop Feb28'25 With recent downturns in the crypto market, Bitcoin's sharp drop has significantly impacted companies like MicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR , which has heavily invested in crypto. I've kept this analysis updated for my students throughout the week and figured I'd post it publicly. This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! trendanalysis, trendtrading, priceaction, priceactiontrading, technicalindicators, supportandresistance, rangebreakout, rangebreakdown, rangetrading, chartpatterntrading, chartpatterns, spy, btc, bitcoin, mstr, micro, microstrategy, strategy, cryptocurrency, cryptodrop, cryptotrend, memecoins, crypto, digitalcurrency, digitalassets, mstrdrop, btcdrop, bitcoinidea, mstridea, mstranalysis, btcanalysis, cryptoanalysis, cryptotrades,
NASDAQ:MSTR
by TonyAiello
MicroStrategy’s Premium Is Fading – Time to Brace for a Drop?The strong optimism following Trump’s election in November fueled a Bitcoin rally, which in turn led to a massive surge in MicroStrategy’s ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) stock. However, after reaching an all-time high near $550, MSTR experienced a sharp decline. Interestingly, despite Bitcoin hovering around $100K and even attempting a new ATH recently, this momentum hasn’t been reflected in MSTR’s stock price. From a technical perspective, the price has broken below its ascending trendline and is now consolidating between $320 and $360. Given the unjustified premium (at least in my opinion), I expect further downside for the stock. Additionally, if Bitcoin fails to hold the key $90K confluence support, MSTR could see a sharp plunge below $200.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Mihai_Iacob
MICROSTRATEGY a pyramid ponzi.Understanding the situation with MSTR can be quite complex. Many people recognize that MicroStrategy has been issuing convertible bonds at a 0% interest rate to purchase Bitcoin. This strategy tends to drive up both Bitcoin's price and the value of MSTR shares. As a result, the scheme appears to inflate continuously, placing the risk on bondholders. The only way for MSTR's stock price to keep rising is through the issuance of increasingly larger amounts of convertible debt; otherwise, the entire pyramid would collapse. It's understandable why Michael Saylor seems to be focusing more on shilling MSTR bonds instead of Bitcoin itself. Why would institutions invest in MSTR's convertible bonds at 0%? Many believe it's because they anticipate being able to convert these bonds into MSTR stock in five years at a predetermined price, potentially around $675, effectively giving them a premium-free call option. However, there is a hidden cost to this strategy: inflation. At first glance, this might seem like a poor investment choice—if one expects MSTR's value to rise, it would make more sense to buy the shares now rather than commit funds to a higher price in the future. Why would anyone engage in such a massive financial manoeuvre involving BILLIONS? The truth is, those purchasing the bonds are ACTUALLY indifferent to the rising stock value! Their primary interest lies in capitalizing on price fluctuations. Ultimately, a convertible bond functions as a CALL OPTION; thus, as the MSTR stock price experiences greater volatility, the premium on the call increases. Recently the value of these convertible bonds has surged by 170%. This is precisely why investors are unconcerned about interest rates or the actual conversion of the bonds—they have ZERO desire to convert! The reason? Issuing new shares would only dilute their holdings! All the rewards with none of the risks! But what happens if MSTR collapses? Bondholders will seize all the Bitcoin MSTR possesses, leaving shareholders with nothing but scraps! Can you fathom how deep this MSTR Ponzi scheme really is? The more you explore, the more mental acrobatics you need to perform to grasp the situation! Many believe that bond buyers are naive, but in reality, they are the sharpest players in the game, reaping the benefits without facing the risks! In the current climate, that’s the nature of volatility! It doesn’t matter if MSTR’s stock price fluctuates; they’re insulated from the fallout. Who do you think is betting against MSTR? It’s the bondholders, and their positions are secure! Ultimately, for someone to profit, someone else must incur a loss, and it won’t be the bondholders. This means that regular shareholders are poised for significant losses, as the primary force driving MSTR’s stock price is its own volatility. Once that volatility dissipates, we could see MSTR plummet below $100 a share! All those crypto enthusiasts will be left reeling, wondering how MSTR could possibly decline while Bitcoin’s value rises!!! What’s the main effect of these convertible bonds? They create volatility in the stock price, leading to wild swings up and down, just as we’re currently witnessing. What occurs when the volatility subsides? The stock price will plummet! Many people are misdirecting their focus on metrics, technical analysis, and listening to Michael Saylor's commentary on CNBC. Instead, they should be paying attention to the volatility of MSTR's stock price, as its decline will directly impact the stock's value. Don't be misled; even if MSTR falls below $300, it will still be overpriced and could potentially drop to under $100 per share due to the convertible bonds scheme. Claims from MSTR valuation sites that each share is backed by a certain amount of Bitcoin are misleading; the reality is that the shares are not backed by anything. The BONDHOLDERS are the ones who possess all the Bitcoin. There’s no such thing as a free lunch—someone has to bear the costs, and in MSTR's case, that burden will fall on the shareholders. You certainly don’t want to be left holding the bag when the music stops. It is important to maintain a clear perspective regarding cryptocurrencies; they should not be viewed as traditional investments, but rather as something more comparable to gambling. While you may have the advantage of being an expert poker player, the only way to truly win is to cash out your profits. Otherwise, you risk losing on MSTR and in the crypto market.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by BallaJi
47
Market Close Update: MSTR Long PlayMSTR had a strong bounce off the $300 Price Levels of Support in it's last trading session, with it contiinuing to push higher going into the Pre-Market Session/Intraday Session, gaining another $29.24/share by Market Close at $379.09. A total of $33+ at it's Intraday High. $378.40 was a previous Level of Support so really interested to see how it reacts to those levels going into to Tomorrow's Market Open. Looking to see if that previous support turns into resistance, providing another opportunity to buy-in on a potential buy-in around the $349.99 Levels. With Bitcoin is back above $100K, sitting at $102,054 but potentially retesting $100K again, could also encourage another opportunity to get in on MSTR. Buy Limit set with a Stop Loss of $347.38 on this trade and a Price Target of $415.68. Follow us to stay tuned for even more at MyMI Wallet! @MyMIWallet #MyMIWallet
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by MyMIWallet