AUDCHF: HTF CURVE ANALYSIS (3W) - UPTREND✨ AUDCHF: HTF CURVE ANALYSIS (3W) ✨ (UPTREND)
BLO1 @ 0.5632 - TRIGGERED
BLO2 @ 0.5566 ⏳
TP1 @ 0.61564
TP2 @ 0.6500
TP3 @ 0.6866
TP4 @ 0.73143
TP5 @ 0.7585
SLO1 @ 0.7685 ⏳
SLO2 @ 0.7725 ⏳
🔑
BLO = BUY LIMIT ORDER
HTF = HIGH TIME FRAME
PA = PRICE ACTION
SLO = SELL LIMIT ORDER
TP = TAKE PROFIT
NOTE: Our BLO has triggered but further analysis shows a potential area of interest between 0.5575 to 0.5546. Due to market conditions, PA might not make it back down to this area. However, if it does, I have a set up there to grab an deeper entry for this long term trade. Let's see what happens.
Long-term time frames (1 week to 1 year):
— Shows the big picture, revealing major trends and economic factors.
— Less volatile, price movements are slower and smoother.
— Suitable for long-term trend trading and position trading.
— Requires less frequent monitoring but may offer fewer trading opportunities.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
ATOM- BULLISH MOMENTUMEyeing Altcoins Near Their March 2024 Highs
BINANCE:ATOMUSDT
I focus on setups where altcoins are approaching their potential March 2024 peaks. These trades are straightforward in strategy but challenging emotionally, as we can expect turbulence and liquidation cascades along the way.
Bullish Arguments
PMH being disrespected
PML being disrespected
PWH being disrespected
PWL being disrespected
PDL being disrespected
PDH being disrespected
Bearish Arguments:
4H swing high being respected
4H swing low being respected
Trade Management
I keep a tight SL to protect capital in case the market hunts liquidity. If stopped out, I’ll reassess and re-enter if price action confirms. TP is around the March 2024 zone, but partial profits may be taken earlier.
A Word of Caution
As futures trading intensifies, we’ll encounter frequent liquidation cascades and stop hunts. This is where discipline and resilience truly matter. The hardest phase starts now.
Trade wisely, stay focused, and take care.
POLKADOT - Strategic Patience for the Next MovePolkadot: Strategic Patience for the Next Move
I've been holding Polkadot since $5.82 and still have my trade open. While I haven’t taken profits yet, this time I plan to secure gains once it approaches $10 again, as I anticipate a correction around December 18th. This pullback could last until December 23rd, where I aim to significantly increase my position.
📈 Scalping Opportunities:
For now, patience is key. However, scalpers will find plenty of opportunities leading up to December 17–18. Be vigilant during those dates, as volatility may spike.
💡 Swing Trading Insight:
Any swing trades entered on December 23rd or the early hours of the 24th could offer exceptional returns.
⚠️ Key Advice:
Always stick to your plan.
Don’t let greed cloud your judgment—secure partial profits to maintain liquidity.
From January onward, the market's psychological and analytical demands will increase. Be prepared and don’t get distracted by noise.
🔑 Closing Thoughts:
This market rewards discipline and foresight. Stay sharp, stay humble, and remember: the best opportunities often come to those who are patient and prepared.
May your trades be fruitful.
God bless you.
—Jay
ETHEREUM - BULLISH AFEthereum: A Technical Masterpiece with a Psychological Challenge
Ethereum's price action showcases remarkable technical precision. However, the real test lies in managing emotions: impatience and impulsive decisions often lead traders to quick losses.
📈 Projection:
Expect a steady climb toward $4,300 until around December 17–18. At that point, a correction of -15% to -30% is likely, though the exact scale will depend on market conditions.
📅 Key Date:
By December 23, ensure your positions are set. As the market evolves, navigating increased difficulty will require discipline—this phase is not for the unprepared.
📊 Comparison:
The current price movement mirrors Ethereum’s 2020 trend, proving that while history doesn’t repeat, it often rhymes.
⚠️ Plan Ahead:
Approach the market with a clear strategy. Maintain well-defined entry and exit plans, and avoid emotional decision-making. Recklessness has no place here.
🚀 Looking Ahead:
January promises explosive growth, likely peaking around mid-month. This period demands focus and resilience—those who stay disciplined stand to benefit the most.
💡 Takeaway:
Ethereum’s journey is more than just price action; it’s a test of patience and strategy. Stick to your plan, trust the process, and let the market work for you.
💼 Upcoming Trade:
I’m about to open a new trade, which I’ll share with you here—just like the one I posted at $3,100. Now’s the time to make money and stay laser-focused. Don’t hesitate to follow me and keep an eye out for updates!
Stay sharp, stay grounded, and may the odds be in your favor.
God bless you.
—Jay
Ethereum time to shine-Swing trading LONGEthereum: Your Time to Shine
BINANCE:ETHUSDT
Ethereum, it’s your moment. You’re in a prime setup for traders, where psychology is playing a crucial role. As Bitcoin consolidates sideways, Ethereum is retesting a key zone, preparing for what could be its true breakout.
This is your time to shine.
Remember, this is not financial advice. Always use a responsible risk management strategy. My trade is targeting the ATH zone, where I plan to take profits and wait for a similar setup to reposition myself strategically
Is there any bearish case against the ES?Hope you enjoy the video. I finished my trade on the 6E this morning from 1.037ish to 1.063, so I came back to look at the ES and see how I felt things were looking for a bearish case scenario. Ultimately, while I want to find one, I don't see one, and will likely continue to stay out of my beloved ES for the moment, in spite of my urge to short this overbought market.
I am getting signals all over, but most will require a decision at EOD today or I could always make the decision Sunday evening or early Monday before markets open.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
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On the above 10 day chart price action has corrected 97% since February 2021. A number of reasons now exist to be bullish, they include:
1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts. Almost 4 years of resistance.
2) Regular positive divergence. Multiple oscillators print positive divergence over a 90 day period.
3) No stock splits.
4) 15% short interest. Who does that after a 97% correction?
5) The falling wedge forecast as measured from top and lower touch points calls for a macro move to the $400 area.
Is it possible price action corrects further after 97%? Sure, sellers love it.
Is it probable? No
Ww
Type: Investment
Risk: you decide
Timeframe for long: Ask me after it pops up 100%, you always do.
Return: 2000-4000%
Stop loss: will say elsewhere
XAUUSD - Gold waiting for the inflation index!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If we maintain the drawn blue upward trend line, we can witness the continued rise of gold and the limited visibility of the channel ceiling. Within the zone of supply, we can sell with appropriate risk reward. Returning below this trend line paves the way for gold to fall and you can buy within the zone of demand.
According to a report by Bank of America, gold remains on track to reach $3,000 per ounce next year. However, investors need to be patient, as the current price consolidation phase may continue through the first half of the year.
Michael Widmer, Head of Metals Research at Bank of America, stated during the bank’s 2025 Outlook webinar: “Currently, gold is stuck in an environment where there’s nothing tangible to draw investors back into the market.”
The second-largest U.S. bank has highlighted that gold faces significant challenges in the upcoming year, including weak demand from China and pressures on Western investors, who are dealing with the prospect of higher bond yields and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
The report noted, “The Trump administration is likely to pursue a mixed economic policy that, through stronger growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and a stronger dollar, could limit investors’ willingness to increase gold purchases in the short term.”
Bank of America strategists predict that Trump’s economic policies, such as potential trade tariffs and similar measures, may force the Federal Reserve to slow down its pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. Analysts expect only two rate cuts next year, one in March and the other in June.
Despite these challenges, precious metals experts believe that gold and silver will remain well-supported in the coming year as economic uncertainties and geopolitical turmoil continue to boost demand for safe-haven assets.
According to a recent Reuters poll of economists, 56 out of 97 respondents forecast that the Federal Reserve will lower its interest rate to 3.50–3.75% or lower by the end of 2025. Furthermore, 93 out of 103 economists surveyed predict that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points during its December 18 meeting, bringing the rate to a range of 4.50–4.25%.
Investors are now focusing on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to have increased by 0.3% in November. This data could shape expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s 2025 policy stance.
Kyle Rodda, a financial markets analyst at Capital, commented: “An expected CPI number essentially gives the Federal Reserve the green light to cut interest rates next week, and this could be the catalyst that gold has been waiting for.”
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs views the recent decline in gold prices as merely a fluctuation and expects the metal to resume its upward trajectory soon.
Goldman Sachs cited the following reasons for its outlook:
• Accommodative monetary policies
• Central bank purchases of gold
• A return of investors to the gold market
The bank also pointed out that during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent freezing of Russian assets by Western nations, gold emerged as an attractive alternative to the U.S. dollar. Many central banks around the world turned to gold to diversify their reserves.
Goldman Sachs stated: “We do not expect central bank demand for gold to decline. With the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates, investors will also reenter the market. We project that gold prices will reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025.”
XAGUSD Buy SetupTime Frame:
- H4 & Daily : FVG Identification
- H1 Entry Signal
1. Trend Confirmation:
Identified a Break of Structure by the break of the previous resistance at 31.52, indicating a bullish in market sentiment.
2. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
On the Daily chart noted a Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 31.43 - 31.70.
On the H4 chartnoted a Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 31.15 - 31.55.
3. Position:
Entry after Bullish Engulfing Candle: 31.70
Stop Loss : 31.40 (below daily FVG)
Take Profit: 33.00 (below fibbo 1.618)
RRR : 1:4.3x
Additional Note: Stop Loss is within H4 FVG.
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Disclaimer
The analysis and content provided here are intended solely for personal journal and educational purposes. This information does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
XAU/USD 11 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in my analysis dated 25 November 2024, H4 TF is now trading in discount of internal 50%. This suggested that bearish momentum on M15 may face limitations, which it did.
Price printed as per alternative scenario, printing a bullish iBOS.
Price subsequently printed a bearish CHoCH indicating bearish pullback phase initiation.
Internal range is now established.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand level before targeting weak internal high.
Alternative Scenario:
Current internal range is fairly extensive, therefore, requiring a deeper pullback to internal 50% EQ and/or M15 demand level.
Price could potentially target weak internal high and print a bullish iBOS to narrow the depth of the internal range.
Note:
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders should remain cautious and prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
GBPUSD - Dollar, waiting for the release of the CPI index?!The GBPUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The continuation of the trend of this currency pair will depend on the maintenance or failure of this channel.
If the upward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see a supply zone and sell within that zone with a suitable risk reward. In case of channel failure and downward correction, you can buy this currency pair within the specified demand zone.
According to a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, consumer inflation expectations in the United States showed some changes in November compared to October. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3%, up from 2.9% last month.
Additionally, three-year inflation expectations reached 2.6%, slightly higher than the 2.5% recorded in October. Five-year expectations also edged up from 2.8% to 2.9%.
The Federal Reserve’s survey indicates that participants anticipate a decline in costs for gasoline, rent, and food over the coming year.
Expectations about future government borrowing have also dropped significantly.
The report further highlights that many respondents are optimistic about their financial situation improving next year. This positive outlook has reached its highest level since February 2020.
Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, has warned that Donald Trump’s tariff plans could disrupt prior efforts to curb inflation and lead to higher consumer prices. Speaking at the Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council, she stressed that broad tariffs could increase costs for American consumers and businesses dependent on imports.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has performed impressively this year, supported by strong economic conditions. However, Morgan Stanley analysts, including David Adams, caution that holding long positions on the dollar may now be a mistake as the currency faces downside risks.
Bloomberg reports that while efforts to combat inflation have been largely successful, lingering price pressures could undermine confidence in further interest rate cuts.
Reuters has reported that the Bank of England intends to maintain its cautious stance and keep interest rates steady. Simultaneously, the European Commission has advised EU member states against granting the UK greater access to the bloc’s electricity market. This recommendation comes despite warnings from the energy sector about higher costs for consumers and slower progress toward green energy transitions.
In a policy document outlining the EU’s stance on future negotiations with the UK, the European Commission emphasized that the principle of “limited choice” should also apply to electricity trade. The document noted that the UK’s decision not to rejoin the single market has restricted deeper cooperation in the energy sector, and partial participation in this market would neither benefit the EU nor align with the European Council’s guidelines.
In October, British and European energy companies called for a revision of post-Brexit energy trade arrangements to establish a “green energy hub” in the North Sea. They warned that the current framework is not only inefficient but also jeopardizes shared commitments to generate 310 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2050.
On Monday, the U.S. and UK announced a fresh wave of sanctions targeting what they described as the illicit gold trade. The UK claimed that this trade finances Vladimir Putin’s war efforts in Ukraine and fuels corruption.
The British government froze the assets of four individuals accused of gold smuggling, as well as another individual who had purchased over $300 million worth of Russian gold, generating revenue for the Russian government. In a statement, the UK’s Foreign Office said: “Illicit gold trade is an attack on the legitimate trade of a valuable commodity, fueling corruption, undermining the rule of law, and enabling human rights abuses, including child labor.”
NZDUSD OUTLOOKOn the monthly charts, we have a bearish outlook with signs of bullish correction. On the same monthly chart, we have a fresh order block indicating there is downside pressure.
Lately, the Kiwi has come under a lot of pressure since China cut their interest rates. Presently we are anticipating a further weakening of the kiwi across the board caused by weakening economic data from China.
On the daily charts, the Kiwi is set to form new lows confirming the medium term bearish trend as we wind down the year.
AAVE and ONDOHello traders and investors!
It's time for a correction in crypto assets. I've selected two assets that look stronger than the market.
AAVE
On the daily timeframe, there is an uptrend. There was a false breakout of the level marking the start of the last buyer's impulse – 240.05.
On the hourly timeframe, there is a sideways range, and the buyer's vector 9-10 is active.
You can look for buy opportunities with targets at 300 (288, 297).
ONDO
On the daily timeframe, the buyer has formed an impulse. There was a small correction, during which a buyer's zone formed yesterday (green rectangle on the chart). The level of the daily test, 1.61094, passes through this zone.
On the hourly timeframe, the price formed a range. The buyer’s vector moved above the upper boundary of 1.68925, but the buyer returned the price to the range, forming a seller’s zone at the top of the range (red rectangle on the chart) and hit the daily test level of 1.61094.
You can look for buy opportunities with targets at 1.95 and 2.0, preferably from the buyer's defense at 1.61094 or 1.46712 if the price returns to those levels.
Good luck with your trading and investments!
Ready to go very very very soonThe stock appears to be in a pullback phase. I anticipate it will find support around the previous monthly highs, keeping prices contained between that level and the anchored VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) from the recent swing high. Once the price advances back up toward this anchored VWAP and experiences a slight pullback, the key will be to break through it. If the stock establishes a pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the 30-minute chart, it would strengthen the bullish outlook.
XAGUSD. Trading opportunityHi traders and investors!
Overall, nothing particularly interesting is happening in the market from a daily timeframe perspective. If we don't delve into lower timeframes to look for trades, silver can be considered.
Daily Timeframe Analysis
On the daily timeframe, the price has formed a range that began in April. The upper boundary is 32.5185, and the lower boundary is 26.0185. The seller's vector 9-10 is relevant, with a potential target of 26.471 (26.0185). The price has reached the level of 32.16, where the seller might resume (see previous posts). Below, a buyer’s zone has formed with an upper boundary of 31.478, what could become an obstacle for the seller.
4H Timeframe Analysis
On the 4-hour timeframe, the price has also formed a range. The upper boundary is 31.5365, and the lower boundary is 29.643. The buyer’s vector 9-10 has moved beyond the upper boundary of the range.
If the seller returns the price into the range (below 31.5365) and defends this return, the seller’s vector 10-11 will be relevant, with a potential target of 30.3165 (29.643).
If the buyer defends the breakout from the range, the potential target is to update the local high (31.286) and reach 31.5185 (the range boundary on the daily timeframe).
From my subjective point of view, the daily timeframe currently favors the continuation of the buyer's movement. However, a correction down to 30.3165 is possible.
Good luck with your trading and investments!