Gold's cautious gains might be a sucker-punch for bullsWhile I suspect gold will outperform in 2025, I am suspicious of these early-year gains during low-liquidity trade. Taking market positioning into account, I assess the weekly trend structure alongside areas for bulls to seek potential shots on the daily and 4-hour timeframes.
MS
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Be prepared to short gold anytime!Dear traders,gold has recently accelerated its upward momentum, reaching a high of $2674. As I’ve consistently projected, gold was set to rise toward the $2670–$2680 range, and now that prediction has been fulfilled! For those of you who have followed my trading strategies and maintained long positions, I trust you’ve achieved substantial profits in this bullish gold market.
Now that gold has successfully reached the $2670–$2680 zone, the question is: how should we trade gold next? While gold remains in a robust uptrend, the short-term upside appears limited to an additional $10–$20, suggesting a potential move toward the $2685–$2695 range. However, due to potential external factors or market catalysts, gold could face a pullback before reaching this level. As such, chasing gold at these elevated prices poses significant risks.
So, how do we position ourselves for shorting gold? If gold extends its climb into the $2680–$2690 zone, I plan to initiate short positions gradually, leveraging both fundamental market news and technical divergence signals. Gold may encounter resistance in this range and could reverse, initiating a corrective move.
Are you ready to capitalize on the opportunity to short gold? Let’s stay vigilant and prepared for the next big move! If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
Is the Dollar Set to rally Before Trump is in office? #USDCHF In this video I go in depth as to why we believe we are set to see higher prices on USDCHF and the US Dollar as a whole.
On the monthly timeframe we can see a large ranging market for USDCHF but we believe this time it will different. Check out the video to find out why in detail! - @BlueOceanFx
EURAUD SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs DH
Entry at both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection At AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 1.66500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 7.55
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
FRE Mean Reversion ShortRally has moved to range-bound market on weekly chart since September 24. RSI near 70 on the daily, and although MACD looks slightly bullish, volume behind this latest move towards the upper channel line doesn't seem strong enough.
Short position near channel line with a tight stop (c. 1.0x ATR). Target is lower channel line, and if breakout to the lower side succeeds, until the next strong support at 30.7
Long trade
4Hr TF overview
1Hr TF overview
Pair EURGBP
Sun 05th Jan 25
5.00 pm
NY session PM
Buyside trade
Entry 4Hr TF
Entry 0.82988
Profit level 0.83695 (0.85%)
Stop level 0.82729 (0.31%)
RR 2.73
Reason - Observing price action since the 5th Jan 2025 and price respecting support zone highlighted green) seem indicative of a buyside trade.
EURUSD. The buyer is not showing any strengthHey traders and investors!
(For a detailed analysis, refer to the related post)
The buyer is not showing any strength. The price is once again below the lower boundary of the range (1.03319).
The bar on January 8th shows a slight increase in volume, indicating increased interest from both buyers and sellers. Volume is accumulating in the same area from where the buyer emerged on January 6th (the blue line on the chart shows the range where 33% of the bar's volume was traded).
As long as the price remains below 1.03319, it is preferable to look for sell opportunities (sell patterns). Above this level, buy patterns can be considered.
For buying, it would be beneficial to accumulate volume below 1.03319 today and maybe tomorrow, then move back above the level and defend the breakout.
I wish you profitable trades!
XAUUSD: Gold waiting for weekend news?!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. The continued rise of gold towards the supply zones will provide a position to sell it with a suitable risk reward.
According to the ADP report, employment in the U.S. private non-farm sector declined in December, with only 122,000 new jobs created. This figure, the lowest in four months, represents a drop from the 146,000 jobs added in November and falls short of economists’ expectations of 140,000. This trend reflects a gradual cooling in labor demand and poses a challenge for the Federal Reserve as it seeks to balance a weakening labor market with inflation concerns in its interest rate decisions.
Job growth varied significantly across industries. The education and healthcare, construction, leisure, and hospitality sectors experienced the highest increases in employment, while job losses were observed in manufacturing, natural resources and mining, and professional and business services.
The ADP report also highlighted a slowdown in wage growth for December. Employees who switched jobs received an average pay increase of 7.1%, while those who stayed in their current roles saw a smaller 4.6% wage increase. This marks the slowest pace of wage growth since mid-2021.
UBS Bank predicts that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely resume rate cuts starting in June. Analysts at UBS believe that the December jobs report and inflation data, set to be released next week, will provide further insights into the U.S. economy.
Although the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in early 2025, UBS expects that upcoming data will indicate cooling inflation and a slowing labor market. These developments could pave the way for another rate cut beginning in the June meeting. Based on the Federal Reserve’s latest economic projections, UBS anticipates one additional rate cut in the third quarter of 2025.
Meanwhile, India’s Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics reported on Wednesday that gold imports were approximately $5 billion—or one-third—higher than initially stated for November. Previously, India’s Ministry of Commerce had estimated gold imports at $14.86 billion.
The rise in India’s trade deficit has exerted additional pressure on the country’s currency, causing the rupee to weaken by nearly 3% over the past year. On Wednesday, it hit a record low of 85.87 rupees against the U.S. dollar.
WTI - The fate of oil with Trump's policies!WTI oil is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zone, the next opportunity to buy oil with a suitable risk reward will be provided for us.
Being in the supply zone of oil will provide us with the possibility of selling it with reimport at a suitable risk.
The price of US crude oil futures (WTI) reached $75 per barrel, marking its highest level in the past three months. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), US oil inventories dropped by 4 million barrels last week. If this reduction is confirmed by official data, inventories would reach their lowest levels since 2014. The severe cold in the United States has increased fuel demand and heightened risks of production disruptions, while Europe is also facing harsh winter conditions.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s tighter sanctions on Iran, combined with a global supply reduction and persistent cold weather, could pave the way for further increases in oil prices.
Last year, crude oil prices declined due to weak demand from China and oversupply. Market analysts predict that oil prices will remain under pressure in 2025. In its November report, the International Energy Agency projected that global oil demand would grow by less than one million barrels per day in 2025, a significant decline compared to the two-million-barrel-per-day increase seen in 2023.
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) forecasts that Brent crude prices will drop to $70 per barrel this year due to expectations of increased oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries, which could offset global consumption growth.
In a December note, BMI stated that the global oil market would likely face an oversupply in the first half of 2025 as new and substantial production from the US, Canada, Guyana, and Brazil enters the market. However, if OPEC+ implements its voluntary production cut plans, this oversupply could exert even more downward pressure on prices.
BMI also highlighted that the outlook for global demand in 2025 remains unclear, stating, “Global demand for oil and gas continues to face uncertainty, with sustained economic growth and rising fuel consumption potentially offset by the impacts of trade wars, inflation, and declining demand in developed markets.”
Additionally, the recent disruption of Russian gas flows to several European countries by Ukraine on the first day of the new year has added further uncertainty to global markets. As long as this situation persists, gas prices are expected to remain elevated. Citi Bank also noted that colder weather in the US and Asia during the remaining winter months could keep prices at high levels.
According to the Financial Times, Donald Trump, who will assume office on January 20, is set to take control of one of the most powerful economic governance tools, capable of significantly enhancing America’s influence abroad. This tool is unmatched since the Cold War.
However, the US economic framework remains flawed due to poor coordination and conflicting political priorities, presenting Trump with significant challenges in developing and implementing it. Unlike Joe Biden’s efforts to create a multifaceted geopolitical approach similar to China’s, the US economic framework suffers from issues in coordination and goal-setting.
EURUSD; FURTHER DOWNSIDE EXPECTEDEURUSD has broken the October 2023 low of 1.045. On the monthly chart, price is seeking to correct imbalance by pushing lower towards 1.01 price handle.
On the daily chart, we have a new low indicating bearish market structure. This bearish trend could set the tone for Q1, 2025.
Fed Minutes of December, 2024 further reinforce our expectations of a bearish EURUSD. As we await the first NFP in 2025, we are likely to see further weakening.
XAU/USD 09 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024.
Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase.
Price Action Analysis:
Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity,
for two possible reasons.
1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855.
Intraday Expectation:
Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
Yesterday's intraday expectation was met with price successfully targeting weak internal high priced at 2,664.330.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation
We are now trading within an established internal range.
Price has traded in to discount of internal 50% EQ.
Intraday Expectation:
Technically, price to target weak internal high, priced at 2,670.150.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
USDCAD - 9 Jan 2025 SetupUSDCAD Market structure are still Bullish on the H4 timeframe and now breaking ema's on H1 means the market will continuing their trend. Spotted demand area (Green Rectangle).its the first demand area on 2025.
Entry Position : Long
Profit Target : 1:3 Shown on the chart image (Green Line)
Stop Loss : Slightly below demand area (Red Line)
Follow me if u guys making any gains from this idea.
Thanks
Coffee Trade Team
Stock Of The Day / 01.08.25 / EIX01.08.2025 / NYSE:EIX
Fundamentals. Negative background due to power outages due to wildfires in California.
Technical analysis.
Daily chart: Change of uptrend to downtrend. Level 69.00, formed by the trend break in June 2024 is ahead.
Premarket: Gap Down on moderate volume.
Trading session: The primary impulse from the opening of the session was stopped at the level of 73.50 and the price began to tighten to the level with each subsequent pullback being smaller than the previous one. We are considering a short trade to continue the downward movement.
Trading scenario: #breakout (#squeeze) of the level 73.50
Entry: 73.25 aggressive entry into the breakdown.
Stop: 73.76 we hide it behind the high of the last pullback.
Exit: Close part of the position before the strong daily level of 69.00. Close the rest of the position at 67.69 when the structure of the downtrend is broken.
Risk Rewards: 1/10
P.S. In order to understand the idea of the Stock Of The Day analysis, please read the following information .
GBP/NZD: Bullish Setup After Correction to the Golden ZoneWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** GBPNZD Analysis !
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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NZDCAD SHORT Market structure Bearing on HTFs
Entry at Weekly And Daily AOi
Weekly rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
around Psychological Level 0.81000
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 7.25
Entry 110%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.