XAU sells to push lower?We have surprisingly been seeing a steady ongoing short of Gold over the past weeks and anticipate it to continue pushing lower to the downside. We have two scenarios that could play out this week:
Scenario A being price pushes down taking the ASL from last week and reacting from the daily demand zone to push up. However, I don't believe that this will have gold pushing past the previous high but rather grabbing liquidity in order to continue in it's downtrend.
Scenario B we see market open price may validate the CHOCH to the downside before taking the ASH and the consolidation that's created pools of liquidity to both the upside and the downside and reacting from the 3H supply zone and continue melting taking liquidity from below that has been building up over the past months.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
GBP/USD shorts to take level 1.24853With the heavy downwards price action we have been seeing on both GU and EU which directly correlates with the GU and the bullish price action of the dollar which goes against the Gu we can anticipate that Gu will continue in this downwards trend to take the last LL at price point 1.24853.
looking deeper into candle anatomy we see that Fridays price action left a strong bearish candle signifying sellers are in control. We also see that there are multiple ASL to the downside and other pools of liquidity which can be TP targets.
However, there are many demand zones we could see price push up from in the short term to collect liquidity to the upside before continuing in its overall HTF downtrend. It is also possible price could push up market open taking the ASH that lay above before melting.
EUR/USD short from 1.05993With the extreme bullish price movement on the dollar and the continual downtrend on the HTF of the Euro we can expect price to continue in its downward move.
I can expect to see market open and Asian session consolidation before price pushes up taking the Asian session liquidity and reacting from my LTF zone to continue in its downtrend. This is further supported by the fact we see a large wick to the upside before seeing a strong bearish candle suggesting price strength is to the downside.
It is also possible price could push up slightly further as we are beginning to see some HH and HL forming on the LTF signifying a retracement to collect more liquidity before price continues in its downtrend from a 6H supply above.
GOLD SHORT TIME SELL PRESSURE
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Monthly CLS, Model 1 is forming. Target 50% of rangeMonthly CLS, Model 1 is forming. Target 50% of range.
you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion.
Monthly view
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EUR/USD Sunday Market ReviewCurrent Market Position
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.05678, positioned at the premium side of its recent trading range. This level represents a significant recovery from the markdown initiated on November 13th, which established the range's parameters.
Recent Price Action Analysis
The trading range has been defined by:
Upper bound: Current levels around 1.05678
Lower bound: 1.04802
Notable displacement: Liquidity sweep on November 22nd
Recovery: Strong positive reaction leading into November 30th
Technical Structure
The price action has demonstrated a clear range-bound behavior with strategic liquidity sweeps. The recent upward movement from the lower displacement suggests accumulation at lower levels, with buyers showing conviction in defending the range's floor.
Key Technical Levels
Upside targets:
Primary resistance: 1.09464 (coinciding with 200 EMA)
Extended target: 1.12136 (longer-term projection)
Correlation Analysis with US Dollar Index
The Dollar Index presents a potentially bearish setup:
Current resistance: 108.071
Initial support target: 105.970
Critical breakdown level: 105.347
Further DXY support levels on bearish continuation:
Major support: 103.376
Extended targets: 101.856 and 100.000
Technical Patterns
The US Dollar Index is exhibiting a head and shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe, although Friday's green close suggests some hesitation in the bearish momentum. This pattern, if confirmed, would align with the bullish EUR/USD scenario.
Outlook and Strategy
The technical setup suggests a bullish bias for EUR/USD with the following considerations:
The pair has shown resilience at lower levels with strong buying pressure
The projected move above the 200 EMA could trigger additional momentum
The potential USD weakness, as indicated by the head and shoulders pattern, provides fundamental support for the bullish EUR/USD scenario
Risk Considerations
Traders should monitor:
The 105.347 level on the Dollar Index as a key pivot
Any failure to breach the 200 EMA could lead to range continuation
Friday's positive close on the Dollar Index might indicate temporary strength
Conclusion
The technical structure supports a bullish bias for EUR/USD with clear upside targets at 1.09464 and 1.12136. This aligns with the potential bearish structure in the US Dollar Index, although proper risk management should be maintained given the recent dollar strength.
4H timeframe possible buy set up - On the 4H TF, Gold was breaking structure bearish and changed character bullish.
- Wait for price to reach the 4H order block.
- Then switch to the 15min Timeframe and wait for a 15min re-alignment with the 4H bullish structure.
- On the 15min timeframe, mark out your point of interest/ order block and set up your buy limit order and target the 4H Swing high.
Sell Setup GBPUSDTime Frame:
- Daily: FVG Identification
- H4: FVG Identification
- H4 Entry Signal
1. Trend Confirmation:
Identified a Break of Structure by the break of the previous resistance at 1.2830 area, indicating a continuation in market sentiment.
The break of up trendline will add extra confirmation for bearish continuation.
2. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
On the Daily & H4 chart noted a Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 1.2768 - 1.2857
3. Position:
Entry : 1.2730
Stop Loss : 1.2861
Take Profit: 1.2150
RRR : 1:4,7x
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Disclaimer
The analysis and content provided here are intended solely for personal journal and educational purposes. This information does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Gold weekly chart with Buy and sell levels Gold weekly chart with Buy and sell levels.
Gold traded bearish for the month end.
Indicators on the monthly chart
Stochastic is at extremes and when you see this we normally follow for a correction.
RSI showing overbought
MacD at extremely high levels and convergance meaning a fall.
For a sell entry ill look at entering at 2638 expecting 2630,2622 and 2610 follow it down until we see high first support at 2591, continue on monitoring all the levels marked.
For a buy ill look at entering at 2664 expecting 2671,2677, 2684 and 2700.
As always trade safe use a trailing stop and a stop loss.
Use good risk management .