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Multiple Time Frame Analysis

EURUSD DETAILED ANALYSISFollowing up on the guide that I posted on the weekly timeframe, internal price action on the 2H is bullish and we are currently at the OB which supports the first outcome. Price could continue down without giving us a bearish choch which is a 50/50 trade IMO. I would prefer to see a bearish choch first to increase its probability of holding. If we break above the strong week high I will try to go long with the 2H internal aiming for short term targets until I see a bearish choch to target the weekly low. There are several areas where we could see a choch but keep in mind they could just give a reaction (no choch) to then just continue going higher. The least probably but still possible outcome is for price to go above the December high if the 2H internal price action continues bullish. We also have some very important news releases with Services PMI and NFP being the major ones so be sure to manage your risk this week like every week.
Short
by Keyserfx
GBP USD Complete Analysis - Top Down - Structure wiseHi guys, Below im going to go through a detailed breakdown of GBP USD for longer term swing trades and what i am looking for to confirm any trade direction. Firstly i want to start of at the monthly time frame: Below is a photo of the monthly timeframe clearly showing bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows: So our monthly bias is bearish, and the last rally could just be a pull back to continue lower, However, considering that the low that was created in September of 2022 created a new all time low for the pair, i am skeptical that this pair will go any lower. Furthermore, looking at the price action from the low of 2016 till date we can see that price has been pretty much range bound, which also looks to be a Wyckoff accumulation schematic. However this will only be confirmed once price breaks above the last high marked up in the above drawing, as this will confirm bullish strength and a break of long term structure to the upside. Conclusion of monthly time frame analysis: Trend is bearish but it seems to be at it's turning point. So we need to see confirmations of lower timeframe to determine weather price will continue to drop or go higher. Now lets look at the daily time frame: Looking on the daily time frame we clearly see bullish structure, with higher lows and higher highs, however remember this entire structure could just be a pull back of the monthly time frame's bearish structure. So when will this move be considered a pull back of the bearish monthly structure? if price manages to break the recent low marked up in the above drawing at around 1.204. this will indicate a break of the bullish structure on the daily timeframe and a shift from bullish to bearish structure. As long as price is above this low, 1.204 then the structure will remain to be bullish. So to recap, on the monthly we are overall bearish but we are expecting that we are at the end of the bearish move, but we need to see the lower timeframes confirm if price wants to go higher. As of now, the daily structure is bullish and the structure is holding. So we can look for buys at this point. Lets go down to the 4 hr time frame: On the 4 hr timeframe we can see the clear bearish structure. but remember that as long as price is above the 1.204 mark then we are bullish on the daily, so this bearish structure gives us opportunities to enter long positions at lower prices. But in order to confirm that this bearish structure will not just continue to drop and shatter the 1.204 mark, then we need to see a shift in structure from bearish to bullish, which will occur when price breaks above the high in the above photo at around 1.28. This will indicate the end of this bearish pull back and a change in structure from bearish to bullish, so then we will have bullish structure on the 4 hr and the daily time frames. Entries however will be taken on the 15 or 5 min timeframes, when the time comes. For now i need to wait and see if the 4 hr structure will turn bullish or not. Also another note on the 4 hr timeframe, structure aside, we can see some signs of accumulation where we have just done a quick sweep and stop hunt of the lows which also indicate that bullish strength may enter soon. As shown in the below photo: So overall i am bullish on GBP USD but i need the 4 hr time frame to confirm my bias by breaking structure upwards and clearing the 1.28 mark. At that point we will scope in on the 15 min for entries on pull backs. The other scenario is if price continues to be bearish, and breaks the low on the daily time frame at around 1.204, this will completely shift our bias from bullish to bearish, and will look for sell positions on pull backs. So for now, we wait. Wait for price to show you what it wants to do, does it want to respect the bullish structure on the daily time frame? or does it want to shift the structure from bullish to bearish? this will be the deciding factor here. And based on that we can analyze further and look to take some good swing trades. If you made it this far, i thank you for your time and patience, and i hope this helped you in some way. Thank you, and happy new year to everyone!!
Long
by mohamed_hammoud
4
NZDUSD - Weekly Forecast - Technical Analysis & Trading Ideas!💡 Midterm forecast (Daily Time-frame): The price is in a Down Trend, but Beginning of Up Trend is forecasted! 0.5799 is Major Resistance. Take Profits: 0.57500 0.57992 0.58630 0.59164 0.60369 0.61187 0.62591 0.63680 0.65327 0.67156 0.70330 0.72150 0.74650 💡 Short-term forecast (H4 Time-frame): Bullish Divergence Correction wave toward the Buy Zone Another Upward Impulse wave toward Higher TPs SL: Below 0.5587 __________________________________________________________________ ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView, . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 BOOST button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! 🙏 Your Support is appreciated! Let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Have a successful week, ForecastCity Support Team
Long
by ForecastCity
20
XAUUSD - Gold is waiting for an important week!!In the 4-hour timeframe, gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is in its short-term descending channel. The continued rise of gold towards the supply zones will provide a position to sell it with a suitable risk reward. The year 2024 turned out to be unprecedented for the global gold market. This precious metal witnessed a remarkable growth of nearly 30%, outperforming all other commodities and emerging as one of the most prominent financial assets of the year. Such exceptional performance has continued to gain the trust of analysts and professionals in the gold and jewelry industry, drawing the attention of many traders to this market. Despite forecasts suggesting that gold prices could surpass $3,000 per ounce in 2025, the beginning of 2024 told a different story. Spot gold prices started the year at around $2,000 but fell to $1,992 by mid-February. However, Valentine’s Day marked a turning point, as gold rebounded strongly, climbing back above $2,000 and successfully maintaining this critical level. A significant market milestone occurred at the end of February. In just two days, gold prices surged by over $60, and on the first trading day of March, the metal broke past the $2,100 threshold, setting a new record. After a period of price consolidation at higher levels, gold resumed its upward trend in the final days of the month, surpassing $2,200. By mid-April, gold approached the $2,400 mark. However, traders were not yet prepared to accept these levels, and by the end of April, spot gold prices had retreated below $2,300. May saw renewed optimism in the precious metals market. On May 16, spot gold decisively broke through the $2,400 resistance level. Nonetheless, after reaching a peak of $2,426, prices entered the longest consolidation phase of 2024. Finally, on June 10, gold once again broke the $2,400 resistance and managed to establish it as a support level. From that point onward, gold embarked on one of its most stable upward trends of the year, which continued through late summer and early autumn. On October 30, gold prices hit a new record of $2,788.54 per ounce. However, the election of Donald Trump on November 5, 2024 (15th of Aban 1403), interrupted gold’s rally. Spot gold, which had reached $2,743 on November 4, dropped within 10 days to the $2,560 range. Nevertheless, gold quickly found new support. The president-elect’s threats of tariffs and trade wars, combined with renewed inflationary concerns, pushed gold prices back above $2,700. Although the metal did not return to its October highs, it maintained strong support at $2,600 for the remainder of the year, preventing further declines. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for gold prices, stating that the metal would not reach $3,000 in 2025. However, the bank remains optimistic that gold prices will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace than before.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
EurUsd could drop under parity in 2025 (0.95 target)Now that 2024 has concluded, EUR/USD has ended the year at its lowest point, marking a 7% decline from January and a 9% drop from its summer peak. Most notably, the pair fell 6% since November—a significant move for such a typically stable currency pair, highlighting strong bearish momentum. Technical Analysis On the daily chart, the EUR/USD has shown a steady downtrend since its double top in August and September. Every meaningful reversal attempt was met with selling pressure, leading to a quick resumption of the downward trajectory. The long-term (monthly) chart paints an even grimmer picture. The pair has been in a clear downtrend since its 2008 peak of 1.60, and it now sits precariously on critical support levels from the 2015 and 2017 lows. Fundamental Outlook The fundamentals align with the technical bearish trend. Diverging monetary policies and a bleak economic outlook for the EU add to the pair's struggles. Conclusion: Given these conditions, a drop below parity appears likely in the coming year. The most prudent trading strategy for EUR/USD is to sell into rallies and wait for further declines. My target is 0.95, but, to be honest, I would not be very surprised by 0.9
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
13
XAU/USD 06 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024. Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase. Price Action Analysis: Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity, for two possible reasons. 1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high. 2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855. Intraday Expectation: Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price Action Analysis: Price has most recently printed a bearish iBOS. Price has printed a bullish CHoCH indicating, but not confirming bullish pullback phase initiation. We are now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 2,625.260. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin return to above $100,000?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk off sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. One can look for Bitcoin sell positions in the supply zone. Bitcoin's downward correction and its placement in the demand zone will allow us to buy it. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. In 2025, key narratives in the cryptocurrency market are expected to include asset tokenization, artificial intelligence, and Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Experts also predict that meme coins might become a major trend, while maintaining caution regarding Solana and Ripple ETFs. In 2024, the crypto market experienced increased adoption and institutional investment. Experts anticipate significant trends in 2025 as the market matures and Bitcoin’s upward trajectory continues. ETF providers are exploring more innovative and potentially riskier ways to attract investors to cryptocurrencies. New applications submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) include ETFs converting S&P500 returns into Bitcoin and funds investing in convertible bonds to purchase Bitcoin. Additionally, Volatility Shares aims to launch inverse and leveraged Solana funds.If approved, more than ten new cryptocurrency-related funds could become available to investors in 2025. Reports indicate that the Bitcoin network settled over $19 trillion in transactions in 2024, more than double the $8.7 trillion settled in 2023. At the height of the 2021 bull market, Bitcoin’s transaction volume reached approximately $47 trillion. However, this volume significantly declined in 2022 and 2023. Nevertheless, in 2024, Bitcoin’s network reestablished itself as a store of value and medium of exchange with over $19 trillion settled. Robert Kiyosaki, author of the best-selling book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, has predicted Bitcoin’s price to range between $175,000 and $350,000 in 2025. A strong advocate of Bitcoin, Kiyosaki believes the cryptocurrency can serve as a hedge against global economic volatility. According to data from SaylorTracker, MicroStrategy currently holds 446,400 Bitcoin worth approximately $43.7 billion. Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, shared a Bitcoin chart from SaylorTracker on January 5, hinting at potential Monday purchases. He tweeted, “Something on SaylorTracker.com doesn’t seem right.” The previous week, on December 29, Saylor shared a similar chart, and on December 30, MicroStrategy purchased 2,138 Bitcoin at an average price of $97,837 per unit. These purchases are part of the company’s 21/21 program, which aims to acquire $42 billion worth of Bitcoin through $21 billion in stock issuance and $21 billion in fixed-income securities. MicroStrategy’s inclusion in the Nasdaq Index on December 23, 2024, provided traditional stock investors indirect exposure to Bitcoin through ETFs. Following its inclusion, the company held a special shareholder meeting to secure approval for increasing funds to buy more Bitcoin. According to a December 23 filing with the SEC, MicroStrategy has requested shareholder approval to increase its Class A common stock from 330 million to 10.3 billion shares.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
1
NAS100 - Nasdaq, no interest in Santa Rally!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the supply zone will provide us with the conditions to sell it. In the annual rebalancing of the Nasdaq Index, the shares of Tesla, Meta Platforms, and Broadcom saw a reduction in their weighting, while Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet gained more weight. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, this marks the second time in roughly a year that index regulators have adjusted the allocations for its largest members. The rules governing the Nasdaq 100 are designed to prevent a small number of companies from exerting excessive influence on the index. These rules have become increasingly relevant in recent years due to the extraordinary growth in market value of major companies and advancements in artificial intelligence. Although the Nasdaq 100 is weighted by market capitalization, certain limits are enforced if a few companies grow disproportionately large. This recent rebalancing may have been prompted by a rule that allows regulators to reduce the weighting of the top five companies to below 40%, with other adjustments made accordingly. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, remarked, “At times, the Nasdaq 100 has to take such measures because it becomes a victim of its own success; the largest stocks in the index have grown significantly faster than others.” This year, the shares of major technology companies have risen sharply due to advancements in artificial intelligence. Broadcom, a key chip supplier for Apple and other tech giants, reached a market value of $1 trillion. Tesla also surged by around 75% following the U.S. presidential election. In the Nasdaq 100, Apple’s weighting increased from 9.2% to 9.8%, while Nvidia rose from 7.9% to 8.4%. Microsoft and Amazon also gained weight, and Alphabet saw a slight increase. However, Broadcom’s weighting fell from 6.3% to 4.4%, Tesla’s dropped from 4.9% to 3.9%, and Meta’s decreased from 4.9% to 3.3%. Currently, over 200 exchange-traded products, with combined assets totaling approximately $540 billion, track the Nasdaq 100 or its variations globally. Athanasios Psarofagis of Bloomberg Intelligence noted, “This highlights the increasing influence of index providers on market dynamics.” Last year, thanks to the resilience of the economy, strong earnings reports, a 100-basis-point rate cut by the Fed, and the leadership of the Mag7, the S&P 500 recorded 57 new all-time highs (ATHs). On Friday, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, speaking at the Maryland Bankers Association, outlined the conditions needed for rate cuts and discussed the broader impacts of the new tariff plan proposed by President-elect Donald Trump. Barkin downplayed the immediate and direct effects of the tariff program. Markets do not anticipate any rate changes in the upcoming Fed meeting. The private and non-farm payrolls report (ADP) set to be released on Wednesday, along with Thursday’s weekly jobless claims data, could offer a clearer picture of the U.S. labor market ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI for December, scheduled for release on Monday, could provide further insights into the overall performance of the U.S. economy, as the services sector accounts for over 80% of GDP. The minutes of the December Fed meeting will also be published on Wednesday, but they are unlikely to have a significant impact on markets as updated economic forecasts have already been released. The November Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a sharp increase in job creation, with 227,000 new jobs added to the U.S. economy. This contrasted with just 12,000 jobs added in October, marking the weakest job growth since December 2020. If the December report also indicates that October’s weakness was temporary, some investors might conclude that even two rate cuts in 2025 would be excessive. This could contribute to the continued strength of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies. The key question is whether the stock market, given expectations of fewer rate cuts, will continue its downward trend or recover with signs of robust economic performance.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
GBPJPY - Will the pound continue to grow?!The GBPJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If we continue to move towards the supply zone, we can sell with an appropriate risk reward. The downward correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position. The mortgage approval statistics for the UK in November indicate that the number of approved mortgages has reached 65.7K, which is below the forecast of 68.7K and the previous figure of 68.3K. Additionally, net consumer credit dropped to £0.9 billion, falling short of the £1.2 billion estimate. Net mortgage lending also declined to £2.5 billion, below the forecast of £3.2 billion and the previous figure of £3.4 billion. The annual consumer credit rate also fell, reaching 6.6%. On Sunday, Elon Musk stated that Nigel Farage should step down from leading the UK’s right-wing Reform Party. Musk wrote on his social platform, X, “The Reform Party needs a new leader. Farage lacks the necessary ability.” This statement came despite Musk having appeared to support Farage previously, even taking a photo with him last month. Media outlets had speculated that Musk, a close ally of Donald Trump, the U.S.President-elect, might provide significant financial support to the Reform Party to challenge the UK’s Labour and Conservative parties. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has expressed a bearish outlook on the British pound, pointing to potential rate cuts by the Bank of England as a key factor. The group stated that market pricing for the Bank of England’s rate reductions this year is overly conservative. They anticipate that the Bank of England will implement further cuts, which would likely weaken the pound against other currencies, particularly non-dollar ones. Additionally, with the U.S. dollar showing further signs of weakening, the pound is expected to remain under pressure. The financial group also highlighted rising energy prices as a vulnerability for the UK, particularly in light of Ukraine’s refusal to extend its natural gas transit agreement with Russia to Western Europe. The UK’s limited storage capacity exacerbates its susceptibility to market price fluctuations, increasing concerns about a rise in service costs this year. Higher energy prices are expected to negatively impact consumer spending, weaken business confidence, and drive up overall costs. Meanwhile, a recent private survey revealed that Japan’s service sector activity expanded for the second consecutive month in December, driven by strong demand and increased trade activity. According to the survey conducted by S&P Global Market Intelligence, the final services PMI rose from 50.5 in November to 50.9 in December. While this was lower than the preliminary estimate of 51.4, it remained above the 50.0 threshold for the second consecutive month, signaling economic expansion. The Bank of Japan Governor, Mr. Ueda, recently stated: • There is a possibility of raising interest rates if the economic recovery continues. • The timing of adjustments will depend on economic conditions and inflation trends. • He hopes for balanced growth in wages and prices. • Wage increases remain a critical factor. • The cycle of rising wages, economic recovery, and increased consumption gradually reinforced each other throughout the past year.
Short
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD. Trading opportunityHey traders and investors! Happy New Year to everyone! Wishing you health, energy, and success in all your endeavors! Patience, composure, and perseverance in mastering the intricacies of the markets! On the daily timeframe, there is a range. The current buyer's vector is 7-8, with a potential target of 2721 (2726). In the buyer's vector that has started, a buyer's zone has formed (green rectangle on the chart). The seller is testing this zone. Buying opportunities (buy patterns) can be sought from this zone. On the 4-hour timeframe, there is also a buyer's zone at these levels, and a test level has already formed at 2636.705. You can look for buying opportunities from a manipulation (false breakout) of the test level if the price returns there. I wish you profitable trades!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AlexeyWolf
BTCUSDT. Analysis of the daily timeframe.Hey traders and investors! The price of Bitcoin entered the range of 92,232 - 90,500, and the buyer resumed activity (see previous posts). On the daily timeframe, there is a range, with its boundaries marked on the chart. The current buyer's vector is 6-7. The first target is almost reached at 99,963.7. The next target will be 103,333 (the seller’s zone at the upper boundary of the range). If looking for buy opportunities, it’s advisable to focus on lower timeframes with a tight stop-loss and a near-term target based on the lower timeframe. The feasibility of looking for sell opportunities can be evaluated once the price reaches 103,333 I wish you profitable trades.
by AlexeyWolf