XAUUSD Gold: After correction, a new ATH?The XAUUSD rose to a high of 2786 on Friday, only 30 pip down than the previous all-time high (ATH).
Bulls may be able to enter the market at more advantageous times because the price is currently in a correction phase.
The area around 2740 is a key confluence support and may be a desirable entry point. The end of the correction and the possibility of a new ATH would be signaled by a reversal from this region and a break back above 2760.
However, the positive view would be halted and caution would be advised going forward if the daily close fell below 2740.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
AUDNZD - 29 Jan 2025 SetupAUDNZD Market structure are making N pattern on the market structure with strong Bearish drop. Spotted supply area on H4 Timeframe (Red Rectangle). its a good structure after the price creating a new Low breaking our last bearish structure to the downside.
Entry Position : Short
Profit Target : 1:3 Shown on the chart image (Green Line)
Stop Loss : Slightly above supply area (Red Line)
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XAU/USD 03 February 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 31 January 2025, price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by bullish BOS which was in-line with previous analysis.
Price had printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation,
I also mentioned that I would monitor price.
Price did not pull back deep enough, therefore, I will apply discretion and ignore the previous CHoCH.
Price continued bullish before pulling back, printing another bearish CHoCH. Price also traded down to discount of 50% EQ, therefore, we are now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to target weak internal high, priced at 2,817.215.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Similar to H4 TF you will note an iBOS which is marked in red. I have again applied my discretion as price did not pull back enough to substantiate a further bullish iBOS which would have significantly narrowed the internal range relative to recent price action.
Price continued bullish and pulled back, printing a bearish CHoCH which continued bearish to discount of 50% internal EQ.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to target weak internal high, priced at 2,817.215
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
HSI is about to have a 2000 points trend continuation ?
1. Trade war priced-in since November when Trump wins. it's still within sideways range bound and did not drop to September low.
2. China’s AI catch up play: US AI related stocks has been risen ALOT last 2 yrs. Funds likely to take some profit as valuation not attractive and US LLMs functionality not a lot better than those Chinese LLMs, also Chinese LLM has cost advantage for commercial- hence global money will bet some in China AI (Imo, It is beyond the foreigner's expectation for AI in China to catch up that quick. )
3. US is rising uncertainty short term (USD liquidity + Debt and deficit issue + vulnerability of US treasuries + DOGE job cuts + trade war), with US relatively high valuation, the global money demands more return (China is the most hated market last few years and it is market good for short term speculative) which is attractive for global funds to allocate more to China and weight less on US, as I think US is going for a pull back in short term.
4. Retracement from top seems to be able to hold at this current level of 19000-20000 and did not continue to fall further, now testing weekly MA 200 level, I think it is likely to go across in near term. (or test back 19300 level and back up again)
I think it is nice to open position for short term speculation as the risk reward is attractive. Need to watch out how the weekly candle plays out though.
Long term China fundamental debt deflation issue still remains and china chose strong RMB over reflating the economy.
DOW JONES INDEX (US30): Bullish Outlook Explained
It feels like US30 index is preparing to recover
after Friday's and today's selloff.
As a confirmation, I see a nice bullish imbalance
after a test of a daily support and a tiny ascending triangle
pattern on an hourly.
Goals: 44196 / 44470
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Incoming 50% correction for NVIDIA to $50Patiently we waited and finally it has happened.It was the month of January 2025 when this immense bubble would break support. 2 years after it first confirmed in September 2022.
A number of reasons now exist for a bearish outlook. Look left. On the above 5 week chart:
1) Price action and RSI support breakouts.
2) RSI support confirms resistance on past support.
3) Looking left previous corrections were at least 50% from the support exit, that’s $50 today should that repeat.
4) Looking left the chart suggests this correction is over after 210 days. In other words August 10th presents a unique long term investment opportunity.
Is it possible price action continues upward trend? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Bitcoin - Bitcoin lost $100,000?!Bitcoin is trading below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. Bitcoin’s upward correction and its placement in the supply zone will allow us to resell it. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy in the demand range.
In the past trading week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw an inflow of $560 million, though this represents a significant decline compared to the previous two weeks. Meanwhile, as of January 31, 2025, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a minor outflow of $45 million, though this decline was not particularly drastic.
At the same time, Standard Chartered Bank has advised investors in a new research note to view Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000 and the over 6% single-day decline in the crypto market as a buying opportunity. Jeff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, stated: “Hope is not a strategy.” He further explained: “When hope disappears, digital asset prices tend to fall by 10% to 20%.”
Despite recent market volatility, Standard Chartered remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory in 2025. The bank’s research suggests that growing institutional interest could accelerate Bitcoin’s potential surge to $200,000 by the end of the year.
Last week, Donald Trump fulfilled two key promises to the crypto industry:
1. Granting clemency to Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, who is regarded as a symbolic figure among Bitcoin and libertarian communities.
2.Signing an executive order on cryptocurrencies, which aims to enhance regulatory transparency for digital assets, promote stablecoins, prevent the debanking of the crypto sector, and ban the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
In parallel, Jeff Kendrick of Standard Chartered also warned investors to pay close attention to altcoins, referring to cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin that are expected to experience significant growth in the coming year. He stated: “As soon as we enter the second phase, in my view, the altcoin season will begin.” Kendrick further noted that institutional flows will primarily drive Bitcoin and Ethereum investments, partially offsetting the rotation into altcoins.
Responding to the growing interest in Bitcoin and Solana, MetaMask is planning to expand beyond Ethereum. The company is currently working on integrating Bitcoin functionality while simultaneously exploring decentralized finance (DeFi) opportunities across multiple blockchain ecosystems.
Meanwhile, Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick has identified the establishment of a state Bitcoin reserve as a top priority for 2025. Texas, already a pioneer in adopting Bitcoin at the state level, continues on this path despite challenges at the national level.
If the proposal is approved, Texas will become the first U.S. state to hold Bitcoin as a financial reserve on its balance sheet, a move that could accelerate Bitcoin adoption within the U.S. financial system.
NAS100 - Tariff War, the scourge of the stock market?!The index is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index corrects towards the indicated trend line, we can look for the next short-term buying positions in Nasdaq. The Nasdaq being in the demand range will provide us with the conditions to buy it with a reasonable reward to risk.
While the world remained focused on the first week of the Trump administration, a relatively unknown Chinese startup shocked the tech industry last week by releasing an open-source AI tool. This tool, developed with significantly fewer resources and at a much lower cost than its American counterparts like ChatGPT, has managed to match and, in some cases, surpass its U.S. rivals.
The startup, DeepSeek, has gone even further by making its tool freely available for download. Only those who wish to use the company’s API, which allows seamless integration with existing applications, are required to pay a fee—amounting to just 3% of the cost of competing tools.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday imposing sweeping tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. He pressured these nations to curb the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants from Mexico and Canada into the U.S.—a move that could reignite inflation and hinder global economic growth.
In response, Mexico and Canada, two of the U.S.‘s largest trading partners, immediately vowed to impose retaliatory tariffs. China, on the other hand, announced that it would challenge Trump’s decision at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and take additional “countermeasures.”
Under three executive orders, starting Tuesday, imports from Mexico and Canada will be subject to a 25% tariff, while Chinese goods will face a 10% levy. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded by stating that Canada will impose a 25% tariff on $30 billion worth of U.S. goods starting Tuesday, followed by an additional $125 billion in tariffs three weeks later.
Trudeau warned that these tariffs would increase grocery and fuel costs for American consumers, potentially shut down auto assembly plants, and restrict the supply of nickel, potash, uranium, steel, and aluminum. He also urged Canadians to avoid traveling to the U.S. and boycott American products.
As investors looked for clarity from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, Wall Street was left uncertain, now anticipating that the Fed will likely keep rates unchanged until late in the year.
Possible buying opportunityRisky trade with a low probability of 60-65% but high reward trade. The market already broke through and is now retesting if we get a bullish confirmation on the HIGH then we can place our buys with tight Stop-loss(below the area) and our TP on the Major Key Level(Black lines)
STRONG UPTREND FORMING UPGood day traders, as we can see that AUDCAD has high Market volatility and the current trend is really clear but we can see Bulls have the advantage
A Change of Character(trend) occurred and we can see a NEW HIGH formed, giving us a sign bulls might be in control
The best move would be to wait for the market to break above the NEW HIGH and wait for a retest that will confirm that buyers indeed took over the market and are in control, meaning we can BUY
but if it breaks below the Major low, then it means this set up failed and sellers are taking over
EUR/USD 4H Analysis: Smart Money Concept SetupOn the 4H timeframe, EUR/USD transitioned from a downtrend to bullish momentum after breaking the previous LH. This indicates a potential trend reversal.
Price swept liquidity at the IDM level, confirming the inducement move. I’ll now move to the 30M timeframe to refine my entry. My focus is on waiting for a CHoCH (Change of Character) and a bullish order block retest before executing a buy position.
Sticking to one pair this week to maintain a focused approach. Let’s see how this plays out!
Feedback is welcome—drop your thoughts below!
Bless Trading!
EURUSD 3 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - Taste of Trade WAR!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 3 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
" Strike the bound, and the free will take heed "
Market Volatility and Geopolitical Strategy: Assessing the Implications of a Trump Presidency
Recent market movements underscore a critical narrative: A second Trump administration carries significant potential to reignite the trade policy volatility that defined his first term. Historical precedent offers a clear lens—within weeks of taking office in 2017, President Trump implemented tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, upending decades of trade consensus. Investors initially dismissed these measures as negotiation tactics, but markets are now pricing in a more structural shift. As of this week’s open, risk-on sentiment reflects renewed acceptance of Trump’s uncompromising stance, particularly following his social media assertion that “the pain from tariffs will be worth the price.”
A Businessman’s Approach to Geopolitics
Trump’s career as a dealmaker suggests a presidency anchored in transactional realism. His administration’s “America First” doctrine—evident in the rapid escalation of the U.S.-China trade war—demonstrates a willingness to weaponize economic policy to recalibrate global alliances. This strategy aligns with a proverb often cited in Egyptian diplomacy: “Strike the bound, and the free will take heed.” By aggressively targeting key partners (the “bound”), the U.S. signals resolve to broader adversaries (the “free”), including Europe and emerging economies.
Strategic Outlook for Investors
With 205 weeks remaining in a hypothetical term, market participants should prepare for sustained turbulence. The 2018-2019 trade war eroded nearly $1.7 trillion in global equity value; a second iteration could prove more disruptive given today’s fragmented supply chains and inflationary pressures.
In conclusion, while Trump’s policies may inject short-term uncertainty, they also recalibrate the playbook for global engagement. Investors who disentangle rhetoric from actionable strategy will be best positioned to navigate this paradigm.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹At Swing Extreme
🔹Swing Pullback
2️⃣
🔹With Risk-On sentiment, market opened with a gap down reaching the extreme Swing Low.
🔹The expected move is done with the market open. More development is required on LTFs.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is to continue bearish as long the Risk-On sentiment is still active and no soft tone from Trump in regards to Tariffs.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback
2️⃣
🔹Swing turned bearish signaling the 4H/Daily bearish continuation.
🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, but currently the Risk-On sentiment is the main theme (Technical will follow sentiment) so not currently expecting a valuable pullback phase for the bearish BOS.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set for price to continue bearish and fulfill the Daily Bearish continuation.
XRP Weak Hands Selling! XRPUSD Cheap BUY? Ripple Long Bargain? XRP Weak Hands Selling! XRPUSD Cheap BUY? Ripple Long Bargain?
ℹ️ The thing is everyone talks about BUYING the 🥳DIP but the fact is that when the DIPS turn up the traders WITHOUT A PLAN often do 😕NOTHING or EVEN WORSE do the 😨OPPOSITE and chase the MOMENTUM DOWN. 😱
⚠️The Question Is Which Trader Are You❔️