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Multiple Time Frame Analysis

Drummond Geometry: Envelopes and TerminationsIn Drummond Geometry, envelopes serve as dynamic zones of expected price action, and terminations mark key points where price either respects or challenges these levels. Let’s explore these concepts based on the chart provided and the behavior of Tesla stock. 1. Envelopes and Their Role - Definition : Envelopes represent boundaries derived from price movement, predicting areas of support and resistance. The chart displays various DG lines and envelopes: - The inner bands (the blue filled area limited by red lines) reflect the Envelope Top and Bottom - The outer envelope also known as Area 1 for the below part and Area 6 for the above part (dark green zone) marks the exhaustion zone , where price typically meets resistance or support and reverses. - Behavior on the Chart : Notice how Tesla’s price action interacts with the envelopes: - After a significant upward movement in early November, prices exceeded the upper exhaustion zone . - Rather than reversing, the exhaustion zone acted as support , allowing price to consolidate and enabling the envelopes and PLdot to "catch up" to the higher price levels. This might seem unlogical, it appears however more often than not. The PLdot needs to catch up with the price action! 2. Terminations and Congestion - Congestion Terminations (Blue dots/circles): These occur where price closes near the DG line, indicating indecision or a pause in trend direction. In the chart: - Blue terminations cluster around October 30 - November 6, showing congestion after which a sharp move up follows. This congestion allowed the price action to stabilize before resuming the trend. - Breakout and Continuation : When prices break above or below the envelope, terminations play a critical role: - On November 11, the price could not break the exhaust zone for the Nov. 12, thus typically signaling exhaustion. The high of that day was rejected by the lower exhaust boundary of Nov. 12. Remember, you know the exhaust zone for the upcoming day with DG as these are always available for the bar ahead - What followed was a "cycle". In DG this is explained as a market movement from one envelope to the opposite one. Price eventually went to the daily exhaust zone below, which was also the proxiity of the MTF live weekly ETOP finding support and rotating again higher. 3. Interaction of DG Lines (5-2 and 5-9) The chart includes: - 5-2 Lines (Yellow Circles and Crosses): These lines reflect nearer-term support and resistance. - 5-9 Lines (Red Circles and Crosses): These represent stronger levels of potential support and resistance. --- 4. Exhaustion Zone Acting as Support The most notable observation from the chart is how the exhaustion zone flips its typical behavior: - Expected Behavior : Normally, when prices move into the exhaustion zone (upper envelope), resistance is expected, leading to a pullback. - What Happened : In this case: - The exhaustion zone acted as support . - The price stabilized above this level, allowing the PLdot and envelopes to "catch up." - This "catch-up" mechanism reflects a realignment between market momentum and the statistical framework of the DG lines. Takeaway for Traders This chart demonstrates that while envelopes and terminations provide reliable zones for potential price reactions: 1. Context is Key: The exhaustion zone’s behavior can adapt, switching roles between resistance and support depending on market conditions. 2. Congestion Helps Trends : Congestion terminations (blue dots) can mark pauses that prepare for further trend continuation. 3. Flexibility of DG Lines : The interaction of 5-2 and 5-9 levels offers layered insight into market structure, helping traders refine entries and exits. By combining envelope behavior, termination probabilities, and DG line interactions, traders can better anticipate price movements and manage risk effectively.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by JordanMT
Don't Be Too Quick To Short The DollarYes, DXY closed with a strong weekly bearish engulfing candle, in fact, the first bearish candle close in 2 months. While this is a strong indicator of what's been a highly anticipated correction lower, if price action on the daily continues to trade higher aggressively, then we may see a short term rally before price sell's off. Despite this uncertainty, I see plenty of opportunity early in the week across the board. Here's how I'm positioned after Monday's development: DXY - LONG EURUSD - SHORT USDJPY - LONG GBPJPY - SHORT AUDUSD - NEUTRAL
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
YOUR GUIDE TO CANDLESTICK ANALYSIS! What's up guys it's been a while! I know it's the holiday seasons, and that's the best time of year for me. Here is a wonderful present for you all, as a token of my appreciation. Thankful for the supportive and hateful people, not equally of course! 🤣 Anyways.... the things you must keep in mind when utilizing candlestick analysis in your trading are the following, Gs: 1) Understanding the anatomy of a candlestick - images.ctfassets.net 2) Candlestick color - The color of the candles individually matter in structure but also together they tell a story.... three inside down candle stick pattern at a lower high point in market structure for example. 3) Size of the candle - size of candle does matter as it indicates how volatile and wide reaching the market can be that day based on this data. 4) Volume - This one is obvious, Gs. 5) Timeframe of candlesticks being observed - understand candlesticks on higher timeframe hold more weight so they're more valid. (1h+) in consolidated structure on higher timeframe, lower timeframe candlestick structure is what you need to identify breakouts that'll be big on HTF. 6) Candlestick patterns - content.stockstotrade.com 7) Length of wicks on the candles - This is huge because wicks are a direct indication of exhaustion, which BASICALLY is buyer or seller weakness which directly aids me in basically every trade when finding that sniper entry i'm known for! Do not sleep on this step (or any, for that matter, I don't make these for FUN.) 8) Support/Resistance levels - I recommend going to lower time frames in these areas and using steps 2, 3, 6 mixed with timeframe correlation to make a sniper entry. GOODLUCK Gs!
Education
by PipSniperJ
6
Again... $NQ hits 4x Asian Session Standard Deviation *smc*I made a tutorial not long ago that this setup happens mroe often than not. So I'm posting a second setup to prove my case. What's the difference? The entrance will depend on previous buy/sell models and if price hits the right order block without needing to go after sell side liquidity the higher the entry (or sell side, the lower the entry)... in this case is the higher. Because below is a lot of price action and the bottom hits just below the asian session at a breaker. Exit will head toward liquidity. On the 4 hr chart the liquidity point is 21,190. 4HR HART I hope these tutorials will help you continue to keep finding these setups. Happy Trading CME_MINI:NQ1! BLACKBULL:NAS100 CAPITALCOM:US100
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by BodiesXWix
Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)Technical Analysis Monthly Chart: Since January 2023, the DXY has been moving within a range. The upper boundary of this range was marked by the 107.348 level, which has now been cleared. This breach of the previous high suggests that liquidity above the range has been taken, signaling the potential for a downside move. Historically, such liquidity grabs often precede significant reversals, aligning with the current bearish setup. Daily Chart: On the daily timeframe, the DXY displayed a sharp decline after taking out its last significant high. This aggressive sell-off has formed a strong bearish pattern, indicating a potential continuation to the downside. The presence of strong bearish momentum highlights sellers' dominance in the current market conditions, reinforcing the bearish outlook initiated by the liquidity grab on the monthly chart. Price Targets: Short-Term Target: A move toward 104.636 is expected as the DXY continues its bearish momentum, which aligns with immediate support and prior structural lows. Medium-to-Long-Term Target: If the bearish trajectory persists, the DXY could reach the 101.917 level, which aligns with a significant support zone from previous price action. This target reflects the potential for extended downside in a broader bearish scenario. Fundamental Analysis Federal Reserve and Interest Rates: Recent minutes from the Federal Reserve highlight concerns about continuing rate cuts due to the potential risks they pose to inflation. The Fed has signaled that further rate reductions would only be considered if both the labor market weakens and inflation continues to decline. However, these two factors are closely intertwined. Labor Market Conditions: Historically, the months of November and December exhibit strong employment trends due to holiday hiring. This seasonality reduces the likelihood of immediate rate cuts, as a robust labor market typically does not align with the conditions necessary for easing monetary policy. Inflation Outlook: For the Fed to proceed with aggressive rate cuts, inflation figures would need to remain stable or show further declines. If unemployment rises and inflation remains under control, the Fed may have room for another round of cuts. Such a scenario would support a long-term bearish outlook for the DXY, as lower interest rates reduce demand for the U.S. dollar. Summary and Outlook Technically, the DXY is positioned for further downside following the liquidity grab above the 107.348 level and the subsequent bearish pattern on the daily chart. Fundamentally, while seasonal strength in the labor market may delay immediate bearish moves, the broader macroeconomic context suggests that eventual rate cuts are likely. Key factors to monitor include: Unemployment data in the coming months. Inflation trends to confirm stability or further declines. Any changes in the Fed’s tone regarding rate policy. Price Expectations: In the short term, we could see the DXY reach 104.636, reflecting a retracement toward a key support zone. In the medium to long term, the DXY is likely to target 101.917, aligning with major support from prior price structures and further confirming the bearish outlook. If unemployment begins to rise and inflation remains under control, these targets become even more probable, reinforcing the alignment between technical and fundamental factors.
TVC:DXYShort
by Wiiso
NovoCure Limited (NVCR) to rally 100% ??** short term forecast, days and weeks ahead ** On the above 10 day chart price action has crashed 95% since support failed. Today sellers are trying to push that correction to 100%, are they right? Unlikely. 1) Price action (not visible on LOG) and RSI resistance breakouts. 2) Support on past resistance confirms. 3) Trend reversal. Higher lows print. 4) Bull flag confirmation forecasting a 100% move to mid 30’s. Is it possible price action corrects further? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: you decide Timeframe for long: Yesterday Return: 100% Stop loss: Will say elsewhere
NASDAQ:NVCRLong
by without_worries
6
S&P: Weekly Recap and OutlookLast week, the market opened with a gap up that was quickly filled, after which price hovered near the previous all-time high. Bolstered by new economic data, which delivered no negative surprises, bulls pushed the price out of the trading range, establishing a new all-time high. While this is undoubtedly a positive development that reinforces the bullish thesis, a few warning signs warrant closer attention: 1. Low Breakout Volume: The breakout occurred on significantly low volume. While volume is less critical in indices and ETFs compared to individual stocks, observing below-average volume during such an important event raises concerns about the breakout’s sustainability. 2. Relative Weakness in the Tech Sector (XLK): This deviation signals hesitancy among growth investors, which could potentially ripple through to other market participants. Additionally, concerns highlighted in my previous review remain unresolved and continue to be relevant. At this stage, there is no concrete evidence of a sentiment shift or technical signals pointing to a broad trend reversal. However, there is a growing impression that the rally may be nearing temporary exhaustion, which could lead to a significant pullback. Key Focus for the Upcoming Week Investors will be closely watching the employment data, which has already hinted at labor market weakness. If new data further support this trend, it could heighten bearish sentiment. Price action this week will likely provide important clues: • Bullish Confirmation: If the breakout is followed by a swift continuation, this will confirm buyers’ conviction and overall market strength. • Bearish Signals: Conversely, if the price pulls back below 600 or oscillates indecisively around this level, it may signal uncertainty among buyers, creating an opportunity for short sellers to capitalize.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
When is a stock too high to buy? (Example: IHG)How do you know when you’ve missed the boat? A stock has already gone up a tonne, so bascally you are too late! Sometimes, you just have to let go, right? Sometimes yes, but not always - let’s look at an example. International Hotels Group (IHG) Back in 2020, LSE:IHG IHG shares were trading down at ~2000 GBX, now they are a hairs breadth from 10,000 - that’s 5X in about 4 years. Not bad. Can you really even think about buying shares at 10,000 that were 2,000 only 4 years ago. 🤔 We’re saying YES.. if you follow some guidelines. Clearly this is not a value investment - this is a momentum trade. To be buying IHG shares up here, one is basically arguing that the price at new highs indicates and buyers are in charge and the price is going to keep going up for the time being. This helps define the trade risk very well. If the trade is that IHG has broken out over the previous peak at ~8,800. We don’t want to be owning shares below this level - if they’re back below 8,800 the momentum has stalled and we need to be out. To put it another way, we are not buying just under 10,000 and willing to hold the shares all the way back down to 2,000 again - no. We want to ride the momentum up - not down ! From here there’s a pretty good chance that momentum takes the price up to the 10,000 level. As a big round number, there is also a good chance that profit taking takes place here too. That creates our buy zone between 8,800 and the current market price (9,750). So what might a trading strategy look like to capture this situation? The following is a way to have: An intial risk of £1000 to test the waters A total risk £3000 if/when the trade starts working A 2X profit potential (with the opportunity to capture more) Spread Betting Strategy: Target £6000+ Profit with £1000 Initial Risk Entry Points and Stops 9000 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: 8600 GBX. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Risk: £1000. 9200 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: 8800 GBX. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Risk: £1000. 9400 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: Trailing 400 points. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Initial Risk: £1000. Profit Targets First Position (9000): Gain: 1000 points. Profit: £2500. Second Position (9200): Gain: 800 points. Profit: £2000. Third Position (9400): Trailing Stop Profit Example: 10,400 GBX: Profit = £2500. 11,000 GBX: Profit = £4000 or more. Summary Total Risk: £3000. Fixed Profit (First Two Positions): £4500. Potential Profit (Third Position): Variable, based on trailing stop. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2:1 or higher, depending on trend continuation.
LSE:IHGEducation
by jasperlawler
5
XAUUSD - Mining in China Vs GoldGold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its Neroli channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the limited supply and sell within that range with the appropriate risk reward. The continuation of the gold neroli movement will provide us with the next opportunity to buy it. Chinese officials have announced the discovery of a huge deposit of high-quality gold ore, estimated to be worth around $83 billion, and may be the largest known deposit of the precious metal in the world. Chinese scientists have discovered a "supergiant" deposit of high-quality gold ore near some of the country's existing gold mines. This massive deposit, which could be the largest single reservoir of this precious metal remaining anywhere on Earth, is worth billions of dollars. Representatives of the Geological Bureau of Hunan Province (GBHP) told Chinese state media on November 20 that the new deposits were discovered in the Wangu gold field in northeastern Hunan province. Workers identified more than 40 gold veins containing about 330 tons of gold down to a depth of 6,600 feet (2,000 meters). However, using 3D computer models, mining experts have predicted that as much as 1,100 tons of gold – roughly eight times the weight of the Statue of Liberty – may be hidden as deep as 9,800 feet (3,000 meters). If true, the total reserves are likely to be worth about 600 billion yuan ($83 billion). Mark Chandler, referring to the poor performance of gold after the recent drop, said: "The price of gold has not yet recovered even half of its decline and remains below the level of $2,663.40. If the U.S. employment report at the end of next week is stronger than expected (with around 200,000 new jobs forecast), speculation about a Fed rate cut in December is likely to ease. This can help strengthen the dollar and interest rates. However, US policies that threaten to derail the international order have encouraged some foreign central banks to continue hoarding more gold. Employment data will be the centerpiece of the economic calendar next week and is expected to have a significant impact on the direction of markets. This set of reports includes JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, the ADP employment report on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the key nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Each of these reports can provide clues about the state of the labor market and the Federal Reserve's future decisions. Along with these employment data, ISM purchasing managers' indicators are also in the focus of traders' attention. The index of the production sector is published on Monday and the index of the service sector is published on Wednesday. Additionally, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index, an important measure of economic sentiment and consumer purchasing power, will be released on Friday. Wednesday will be a key opportunity for markets to hear comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ahead of the Federal Reserve's media silence. Powell is scheduled to participate in a moderated conversation at the New York Times DealBook, an event that is likely to provide clues about the Fed's future policy.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
EURUSD H1 02/12/2024 - SELL below 1.04850 OR BUY above 1.05750Overview of EUR/USD Price Action The EUR/USD pair is trading in a consolidation zone between 1.04950 (support) and 1.05250 (resistance), as seen on the H1 chart. Momentum indicators like the RSI (currently around 30-40 on H1) and Stochastic Oscillator suggest that the pair is oversold but lacks a clear directional trend. The MACD shows bearish momentum weakening, indicating potential for a reversal if resistance is broken, while the Average True Range (ATR) indicates low volatility. This creates the perfect scenario for breakout trades in both directions, depending on whether the market breaches the consolidation zone. Buy Stop Setup: Bullish Breakout Case Resistance Level at 1.05250: This zone has acted as a ceiling for the pair during the consolidation phase. A break above this level signals renewed buying pressure. Entry Level: Placing the Buy Stop at 1.05300, slightly above the resistance, ensures confirmation of a bullish breakout. Take-Profit Target: The next key level is around 1.05750, derived from: The previous monthly high at 1.05790. Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the previous bearish leg. Stop-Loss: Setting it at 1.05100, just below the breakout point, protects against false breakouts. Rationale for a Buy Trade: A breach above 1.05250 will invalidate the current bearish trend on H1 and confirm short-term bullish momentum. This move aligns with possible USD weakness in the upcoming sessions due to softening fundamentals (e.g., dovish Fed sentiment or weaker US data, if relevant). Sell Stop Setup: Bearish Breakout Case Support Level at 1.04950: This level has provided solid support for the pair recently. A breakdown below this level signals bearish continuation. Entry Level: Placing the Sell Stop at 1.04850, slightly below support, ensures entry only after confirmation of bearish pressure. Take-Profit Target: The next target is around 1.04450, derived from: Fibonacci 161.8% extension of the recent correction. Psychological round number support at 1.04500. Stop-Loss: Setting it at 1.05050, just above the breakout level, limits risk exposure from potential pullbacks. Rationale for a Sell Trade: A breakdown below 1.04950 signals bearish continuation, possibly targeting the lows seen earlier in November. This move aligns with recent USD strength and market sentiment favoring safe-haven currencies. Technical Indicators Supporting the Setup RSI: On both M30 and H1 timeframes, the RSI hovers near oversold levels, showing a lack of momentum but creating potential for a breakout in either direction. Stochastic Oscillator: Shows the market is at extremes, either overbought or oversold, adding further credence to the possibility of a directional move. MACD Divergence: The MACD histogram on H1 is attempting to flatten, suggesting the bearish momentum is waning and that price could either consolidate further or reverse to the upside. Ichimoku Cloud: The H1 chart shows price is trading below the cloud, indicating a bearish bias. However, price action is close to breaking out, supporting both trade scenarios. Market Sentiment & Fundamental Factors Dollar Index (DXY): A closely watched driver of EUR/USD, the DXY has been showing signs of indecision in recent sessions. Any weakening of the dollar could trigger the bullish breakout, while dollar strength supports the bearish case.
by napoleon182
XAU/USD 02 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024. Price Action Analysis: As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed. Currently, price is trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bearish. Today's analysis and bias will remain the same as analysis dated 26 November 2024. Price Action Analysis: Intraday expectation and analysis dated 25 November 2024 printed as anticipated, with price successfully printing a bearish iBOS after targeting the weak internal low. A correction from yesterday's intraday expectation: instead of targeting the weak internal high, price was expected to target the weak internal low. Price has since printed a bullish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming, bullish pullback phase. We are now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to trade up to either the internal 50% EQ or the M15 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low at 2,605.310. Alternative Scenario: The H4 timeframe has printed a bearish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bearish pullback phase coupled with the fact that H4 TF is now trading in discount of internal 50%. However, this suggests that bearish momentum on M15 may face limitations as the broader H4 phase unfolds. Note: Given the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders should remain cautious and prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Silver- Could it drop to 28?In my previous analysis of silver, I mentioned the potential for prices to drop below the significant $30 level. This scenario unfolded as expected, with prices dipping to $29.66 before reversing and once again hovering around the $30 mark. This area continues to act as a pivotal point for market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the outlook remains bearish as long as the $31.20 resistance level holds. This level serves as a key threshold, and until it is breached, the strategy should focus on selling into rallies. A decisive break below the $30 level could pave the way for a move toward the next major support around $28. Such a development would align with my broader bearish view when it comes to precious metals
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
NAS100 - Nasdaq will welcome Santa Rally?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. In case of a valid failure of the bottom of the ascending channel, you can look for positions to sell Nasdaq to the 20500 target. Nasdaq buying positions will be after breaking the resistance and maintaining the ascending channel. Following the extended Thanksgiving weekend, financial markets had an opportunity to process a wide array of data and developments. Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election earlier this month boosted the markets, as investors anticipated that his promises to cut taxes and ease regulations would enhance corporate profitability. However, Trump’s proposals to impose tariffs on key trading partners were largely overlooked by stock market traders, although certain sectors, such as the automotive industry, experienced adverse effects. Susannah Streeter, Head of Money Markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, stated, “There is still considerable volatility, and I think this stems from the belief that the potentially damaging impact of Trump’s tariffs may not materialize.” For equity investors, 2024 has been unexpectedly favorable, with the S&P 500 on track for one of its best annual performances in history. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have risen by more than 20%, while Nvidia’s stock has tripled in value. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) last month dropped to its lowest level in a year and has indicated contraction for nearly two consecutive years. Despite the discouraging outlook it provides for the manufacturing sector, optimism remains regarding future economic activity, especially with the beginning of an easing cycle and the continued reduction in interest rates and borrowing costs. In contrast, the ISM Services Index for October reached 56.0, marking the strongest growth since the summer of 2022 Within this index, the employment component rose by nearly five points to 53.0. Steady consumer demand has been a key driver supporting the services sector. This week, the release of ISM Services PMI data will be closely monitored to determine whether persistent consumer demand and favorable labor market conditions can further stabilize and sustain growth in this sector. Additionally, the impacts of hurricanes Helen and Milton, along with widespread strikes, led to a modest increase of just 12,000 jobs in the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report for October. This report was cautiously interpreted as a clear sign of gradual cooling and weakening in the labor market. Beyond the NFP data, other indicators such as the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and average hourly earnings will also be critical. Together, these data points could guide the Federal Reserve’s decision on a potential interest rate cut in December. While the labor market remains relatively stable, evident signs of gradual declines in employment and wage growth are becoming increasingly apparent.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND