Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Pullback Alert: Is the Uptrend Losing Steam?Below is a multi-timeframe breakdown of what the charts are showing (likely Daily on the left, 4H in the middle, and 1H on the right) for Gold (XAU/USD), using Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages:
1. Daily Timeframe (Left Chart)
Primary Trend: Still bullish in the bigger picture. Price is well above the longer-term moving averages (e.g., the orange line which could be the 200 MA).
Pullback Underway: Recently, price has moved off the upper Bollinger Band and is dropping toward the mid or lower band. This indicates a short-term correction within a larger uptrend.
Momentum Shift: Candles are showing more selling pressure (red/bearish candles), and if price closes below the mid-BB or a key moving average, it can confirm a deeper pullback.
2. 4H Timeframe (Middle Chart)
Short-Term Downtrend: The 4H shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows compared to its previous upswing.
Below Mid-BB: Price appears to be trading at or below the mid-Bollinger Band, confirming that sellers are in control in the near term.
Moving Averages: If the shorter MAs (like the 50 or 100) have crossed down or if price is below them, it strengthens the case for a temporary downtrend on this timeframe.
3. 1H Timeframe (Right Chart)
Intraday Bearish Momentum: The 1H chart highlights the most immediate price action, and it shows continued pressure to the downside (frequent tests of lower Bollinger Band).
Lower Highs, Lower Lows: Similar to the 4H, the 1H is printing a bearish market structure.
Potential Reversal Points: Watch for any bullish candlestick patterns near support (e.g., lower BB or a significant horizontal level). Without that, the 1H remains in a downward swing.
Overall Interpretation
Daily Trend remains up in the grand scheme, but it’s undergoing a pullback/correction phase.
4H and 1H are currently bearish, showing a down-swing that could continue unless we see a clear bullish reversal signal (e.g., price reclaiming the mid-BB or forming higher highs/lows).
Key Watch Area
Whether the Daily finds support at its mid-BB or a moving average—this could spark a bounce and continuation of the bigger uptrend.
If short-term charts (4H, 1H) fail to reclaim their mid-BB/MAs, the pullback could deepen before the larger trend reasserts itself.
In short, the market is in a short-term corrective mode on lower timeframes, while the higher timeframe (Daily) remains structurally bullish as long as major supports hold.
Trading with multiple VAMAsI want to show you how to analyse multiple timeframe VAMAs for trading opportunities. This is an interesting approach that can reveal valuable market structure information.
For this example I am using a 15m, 1h and. 4h VAMA, but you can use this on lower or higher timeframes as well. First, let's understand what each timeframe VAMA represent in this case:
The 15-minute VAMA indicates short-term trends and momentum
The 1-hour VAMA reveals intermediate trend direction
The 4-hour VAMA represents the broader market structure
When these VAMAs overlap on your lower timeframe chart (15m in this case), they create what we might call "zones of interest." Think of it like layers of support and resistance that have different degrees of significance based on their timeframe. Here's how we can interpret and use this information:
Convergence Zones
When multiple VAMAs cluster in a tight price range, this creates a significant zone of interest. For example, if your 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour VAMAs are all within a narrow price band, this often indicates a strong support or resistance level. These zones typically exhibit one of two behaviors:
Price Bounces:
When price approaches a convergence zone from above or below, it often respects these levels. The more timeframes that have converged, the stronger the zone becomes. A bounce from such a zone with corresponding volume can present a high-probability trade opportunity.
Zone Breaks:
If price successfully breaks through a convergence zone, especially with increased volume, this often signals a strong trend continuation or reversal, depending on the direction of the break.
Hierarchical Trending
You can identify the strength and maturity of trends by examining how the different timeframe VAMAs are arranged:
Strong Uptrend Structure:
4H VAMA lowest
1H VAMA above 4H
15min VAMA above 1H
This "stacking" of VAMAs shows a healthy trend structure. The higher timeframe VAMAs act as dynamic support levels in an uptrend (or resistance in a downtrend).
Trade Entry Opportunities
Alignment Trades:
Look for moments when all VAMAs are pointing in the same direction and properly stacked. These situations often present high probability setups. For example: In an uptrend Price pulls back to test the 15-minute VAMA while the 1H and 4H VAMAs continue trending up.This creates a "buy the dip" opportunity with multiple timeframe confirmation.
Divergent Zone Trades:
When the faster VAMAs (1min, 15min) show divergence from the slower ones (1H, 4H), this can indicate potential reversal points: If the 1min and 15min VAMAs start curling up while price is testing the 1H VAMA as support. This divergence in shorter timeframes while respecting longer timeframe support can signal a reversal opportunity.
Breakout Confirmation:
Use the multiple timeframes to confirm breakout trades:
When price breaks above a convergence zone
Look for the faster VAMAs (1min, 15min) to cross above the slower ones
Volume should increase during the break
The previous resistance zone (marked by the VAMAs) should become support
USDCAD SHORTMarket structure bearish on HTFs 3
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Rejection at Daily AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Round Psych Level
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 7.89
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
GBPCAD LONG Market structure bullish on HTFs DH
Entry at both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection At AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Daily EMA retest
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 1.78500
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 5.47
Entry 90
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
XAU/USD 20 February 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price printed as per analysis and bias dated 10 February 2025.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation by printing bearish CHoCH.
Bearish CHoCH is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Alternative scenario:
Given HTF (Daily and Weekly) have also printed bullish iBOS' it would not come as a surprise if price printed a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price printed as per analysis and bias dated 11 February 2025.
Price has printed a double bullish iBOS.
You will note the most recent bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH despite price not tapping in to discount of 50% internal EQ or M15 demand zone. I will consider this a bullish iBOS due to time spent, however, I will continue to monitor.
Intraday Expectation:
Await for price indicate bearish pullback phase initiation and print bearish ChOCH.
CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Alternative scenario:
As we await for H4 TF to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation, it would be a realistic expectation for price to print a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
GBPCAD ENTRY CHARTON this pair, the trend is still BULLISH, we also have the mid-term trend still BULLISH,+ we have price resting on the 30minutes demand with some other confluences, like INDUCEMENT after the first BOS, also we had a LTF CHOCH on that DEMAND ZONE, So you can join us if thhis matches with your idea,But also we have CANADIAN CPI NEWS DROPPING SOON. THANK YOU.
EURUSD 20 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday - US Unemployment ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 20 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Some USA economic news today:
US : Unemployment Claims & Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary:
Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation.
Key Risks:
A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness.
Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand)
🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply)
🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%)
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With the recent moves, Minor Supply is holding and demand is failing to facilitate the INT-INT Bullish structure Pullback which reached the structure EQ (50%).
3️⃣
🔹After the Bullish ii-BOS, price pulled in a corrective PA to the structure EQ (50%) and currently within the Daily Demand.
🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme where we are getting the current corrective Bearish OF.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount
🔹Swing Pullback Phase
2️⃣
🔹The 15m Bullish Swing pullback phase is still intact with continues Bearish INT structures.
🔹Price had reached Swing extreme demand in Swing Discount.
🔹With the recent Bearish iBOS, price had formed Liq. above the 15m Demand which was sept with the break of the Weak INT Low, mitigating the 15m Demand and forming a Bullish CHoCH to initiate the Bearish INT Structure Pullback.
🔹Technically Shorts is the straight forward play (Played very well yesterday as per expectations and executions), but keep in mind that the Bearish INT structures task is to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback and we are currently in the Swing Discount Zone and if the Swing is going to continue Bullish, there is a high probability that the INT Structure is going to shift Bullish.
3️⃣
🔹It’s a crossroads! Expectations is for price to turn Bullish and create a Bullish INT structure to confirm the Swing Pullback is over and the start of the Swing Bullish continuation Phase (Bullish iBOS for confirmation).
🔹Will be looking for longs after Bullish iBOS. As for Shorts, not in my interest currently based on where we are within the 115m Swing (Discount)/15m & 4H Demand even with the INT structure is Bearish.
Why the Dow Jones might close its gap with S&P and NasdaqThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq have once again reached record high, leaving the Dow Jones for dust in its choppy consolidation. But I think we're now facing a relative shift in their performance, which could see the Dow lead the way and close its gap with its Wall Street Peers.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
AUD/JPY: Counter-trend bull flag in focusI have outlined my bearish case for AUD/JPY for the year in prior articles and videos, but today I want to look at a potential countertrend setup.
A bull flag is forming on the daily chart. Usually I'd prefer to see such patterns during a strong uptrend as a continuation pattern. But given we saw a false break of an elongated bullish pinbar and sharp reversal higher, I suspect there is at least one more leg higher brewing for AUD/JPY. And because this is counter trend to my core bearish bias, I am not seeking the usual flag projection target, and instead will be happy with a more conservative reward if successful.
Prices are holding above the 10-day ERMA and weekly pivot point, but bulls could also seek dips towards the high-volume node (HVN) at 95.11 or around the 98 handle.
Bulls could target the 97 handle, with a break above 97.20 brining the weekly R1 into focus just below 98.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
NIFTY must sustain itself abv 23000 level to regain its strengthAs we can see despite the strength NIFTY failed to sustain ahlhe psychological levels of 23000 level and the trendline resistance showing weakness hence as long as it’s below the trendline it could remain negative to volatile so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching
NQ - Wednesday FrameworkLast week NQ ran out its external range high.
Tuesday ran out Monday (check 4h) high and low and closed bearish.
On the 4h and 1h, we have a cisd to the downside. Paired with ES smt at the highs (check 1h). Measure the manipulation leg on the 1h for STD extensions and targets align with daily fvg. This is giving me evidence of a possible short term retracement delivery cycle in price. We could see Wednesday offer a continuation lower.
What I would need to see to confirm shorts:
If Asia and London initially trade higher above new day and midnight opening price, then the intraday framework is setting up for a classic sell day. This is ideal for shorts. Either NY Continuation or NY Reversal daily profile is what I'm hunting. I need to see a 15m cisd. That would confirm the daily profile.
If Asia and London trade lower first, then conditions are not ideal for intraday framework I'm looking for and need to be cautious of shorts.
If Asia and London consolidate, then I will wait for the external range to be swept during NY session. A 15m cisd will confirm direction after sweep on liquidity and I will target opposing liquidity.
If 4h fvg is closed though, that confirms ifvg and shorts will no longer be consider.
Short trade
Sellside Trade
Pair: EURUSD
Date: Monday, 17th February 2025
Time: 3:00 AM (NY Time)
Session: Tokyo to London Session AM
Trade Details:
Entry: 1.04734
Profit Level: 1.04092 (+0.61%)
Stop Level: 1.04987 (-0.24%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 2.54
Sellside trade is structured around a bearish market structure, liquidity grabs, and session timing,