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2025 GBP/USD Outlook Fundamental & Technical PreviewFundamental analysis WHSELFINVEST:GBPUSD showed resilience in 2024, falling just 1% across the year. The pair experienced strong gains between April to September, rising from a low of 1.23 to a high of 1.34. However, GBP/USD fell 5% in the final quarter of the year amid notable USD strength, pulling GBP/USD from 1.34 to the 1.25 level where it trades at the time of writing. While the pound booked losses against the US dollar in 2024, GBP's performance against other major peers was impressive, rising solidly against EUR, CHF, CAD, AUD, and JPY. GBP/USD has been supported across 2024 by the BoE cutting rates at a slower pace than the Federal Reserve and by the expectation that this trend would continue in 2025. However, Donald Trump's victory in the US election, combined with the Labour government’s Budget, means that the outlook for both economies has changed, potentially impacting the direction of monetary policy in 2025 for both central banks and GBP/USD. GBP/USD outlook – UK economic factors Growth The UK economy is expected to continue to grow in 2025. However, GDP could be weaker than the 1.5% forecast by the BoE owing to several key factors, including uncertainty surrounding trade and a less expansionary UK budget. Trump’s second term in the White House brings uncertainty, and UK trade will be under the spotlight. While the UK isn’t directly in the firing line for tariffs, the openness of the UK economy means a global shift towards increased tariffs could hurt growth prospects. However, should the UK pursue and achieve closer ties with the US or the EU, this could help growth but not to the extent of reducing the impact of Brexit. The extent of the indirect impact of trade tariffs on the UK will depend on their magnitude. The UK is already experiencing depressed growth, which Trump’s action could exasperate. The BoE forecasts GDP growth of 0% in Q4 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. The OECD forecasts 1.7% growth, and Bloomberg's survey of economists points to growth of 1.3%. Inflation In November, inflation in the UK was 2.6% YoY, rising for a second straight month and remaining above the Bank of England's 2% target as wage growth and service sector inflation remain sticky. The labour market has shown signs of easing, but unemployment remains low by historical standards at 4.2%, and wage growth elevated at 5.2%. We expect some softening in the UK job market following the Labour government’s first Budget. Chancellor Rachel Reeves placed a major tax burden on employers with a rise in employer National Insurance contributions and an increase in the minimum wage. A broad range of UK labour market indicators point to a weakening outlook, with surveys indicating that UK firms (especially smaller firms) are scaling back hiring plans. Although wage growth and service sector inflation were slightly firmer than expected at the end of 2024, the disinflationary trend remains intact, with core inflation well below last year's highs. The BoE projections show CPI could reach 2.7% in 2025 before easing to 2.5% in 2026. However, this could be lower if the labour market weakens further and if growth remains lacklustre. Will the BoE cut rates in 2025? At the final BoE meeting in 2025, the BoE left interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, in line with expectations. However, the vote split was more dovish than expected, at 6-3 compared to the 8-1 forecast. This suggests that dovish momentum is building within the monetary policy committee for a rate cut in February. The central bank signaled gradual, rare cuts throughout 2025 amid sticky inflation, although policymakers are increasingly concerned over the growth outlook. The market is pricing 50 basis points worth of cuts in 2025, supporting the pound. However, this could be conservative given that the labour market could weaken considerably following the Budget. A weaker labour market will lower wage growth and impact consumption, potentially cooling inflation faster. Uncertainty surrounding trade could ease inflationary pressures further in 2025, meaning deeper cuts from the BoE than the market is pricing in. As a result, GBP could come under pressure across H1 2025. GBP/USD outlook - US economic factors USD strength was nothing short of impressive in Q4. The USD index jumped 5% to reach a two-year high, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at a slower pace in 2025. Despite the outsized move in Q4, we expect further USD strength in 2025. At the time of writing, US CPI has risen for the past two months, reaching 2.7% YoY in November. Core PCE is also proving to be sticky, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Earlier confidence at the Federal Reserve that inflation would continue falling to the 2% target appears to have faded amid ongoing US economic exceptionalism and a cooling but not collapsing labour market. Signs of sticky inflation come as the US job market remains resilient. Nonfarm payrolls for November showed 227k jobs were added. Unemployment has ticked higher but is expected to end 2025 at 4.3%, down from 4.4% previously expected. Meanwhile, economic growth in the US remains solid. The US recorded Q3 GDP as 3.1% annually, up from 2.8% in Q2. According to the OECD, the US is expected to see strong growth among the G7 economies, with 2.8% growth expected in 2024 and 2.4% forecast for 2025. A combination of sticky-than-expected inflation, solid growth, and a resilient jobs market suggests that the US economy is on a strong footing as Trump comes into power. Political factors Trump is widely expected to implement inflationary measures, including tax cuts and trade tariffs. Inflationary policies at a time when US inflation is starting to heat up again could create more of a headache for the Federal Reserve continuing with its easing cycle. Will the Federal Reserve cut rates in 2025? At its last meeting of 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the second consecutive 25-basis-point cut and following a 50-basis-point reduction in September, when it kicked off its rate-cutting cycle. However, the Fed also signaled slower and shallower rate cuts in 2025. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference and policymakers’ updated projections confirm that the Fed will be much more cautious next year. The Fed increased its inflation forecast to 2.5% YoY, up from 2.1%, and isn’t expected to reach 2% until 2027. The market is pricing in just 35 basis points worth of cuts next year, and the first rate cut isn’t expected until July. However, Trump’s policy plans will be the most significant determinant of the Fed's decisions regarding rates next year. Technical analysis Overview The GBP/USD pair has been in a clear downtrend since its peak in May 2021, marked by a swing high of ~1.4205 and a subsequent low of ~1.1800 in September 2022. The recent price action suggests the pair is consolidating near key psychological and technical levels, hinting at potential future moves. This analysis incorporates a refined Fibonacci retracement that spans the broader bearish cycle for a more holistic perspective. Long-Term Fibonacci Analysis The updated Fibonacci retracement has been applied from the May 2021 high of ~1.4205 to the September 2022 low of ~1.1800. This adjustment provides a better representation of the long-term market structure and aligns key levels with historical price reactions: 23.6% Retracement Level (~1.4007): This level aligns closely with the psychological 1.4000 level, making it a key resistance area should the pair see a bullish recovery. 38.2% Retracement Level (~1.3884): This level historically coincides with areas of consolidation and resistance, suggesting it could act as a ceiling for mid-term rallies. 50% Retracement Level (~1.3785): Situated near prior structural highs, this is a crucial midpoint for evaluating the strength of any bullish correction. 61.8% Retracement Level (~1.3660): Often referred to as the "golden ratio," this level aligns with significant historical resistance, further reinforcing its importance. 78.6% Retracement Level (~1.3548): This deeper retracement could serve as an area of rejection in a bullish recovery scenario. Short-Term Impulse Fibonacci Analysis Focusing on the most recent bearish impulse, the Fibonacci retracement spans from the swing high of 1.3170 (August 2023) to the recent low of 1.2384. Key levels from this retracement include: 23.6% Retracement Level (~1.2612): The price has hovered around this level recently, suggesting it acts as a local resistance point. 38.2% Retracement Level (~1.2785): This level is bolstered by confluence with horizontal resistance, making it a critical test for bullish momentum. 50% Retracement Level (~1.2850): Represents a midpoint and potential short-term rejection area. 1.618 Fibonacci Extension (~1.2139): This provides a logical downside target should the bearish trend continue. 3.618 and 4.236 Extensions (~1.1164 and ~1.0644): These deeper levels indicate the potential for significant bearish continuation in the long term. Other technical indicators Moving Averages The 21-week SMA (~1.2924) remains above the current price, acting as dynamic resistance. The 50-week SMA (~1.2785) coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the recent impulse, reinforcing its importance. RSI and MACD The RSI (47.96) is below the midpoint of 50, indicating bearish momentum. Watch for divergence near key Fibonacci levels. The MACD histogram is negative, with no signs of an imminent crossover, confirming bearish pressure. Support and Resistance Zones Key Resistance Levels 1.2612: Recent price interactions suggest this is a significant short-term barrier. 1.2785: The 38.2% retracement of the impulse move, coinciding with the 50-week SMA. 1.3000: A psychological level with historical significance. 1.4000: The 23.6% retracement of the broader move and a long-term target for bullish recovery. Key Support Levels 1.2384: The recent swing low. 1.2139: The 1.618 extension of the recent impulse move. 1.2000: A critical psychological threshold. 1.1164 and 1.0644: Deeper Fibonacci extensions providing long-term bearish targets. Conclusion The GBP/USD pair remains in a bearish trend, with key levels from the updated Fibonacci retracement offering valuable insights for both potential reversals and continuation scenarios. Traders should monitor the interaction of price with the 1.2612 and 1.2785 resistance levels, while keeping an eye on the downside targets of 1.2139 and below. The RSI and MACD confirm bearish momentum, while moving averages provide additional context for dynamic support and resistance. A multi-timeframe approach will be crucial in navigating this pair over the coming months, with the broader trend still probably favoring the bears. -- written by Fiona Cincotta & WH SelfInvest
Short
by WHSelfInvest
NVIDIA. Buying opportunitiesHey traders and investors! NVIDIA Daily Timeframe Analysis A sideways trend (range) was formed on the daily time frame in October 2024 (point 4 was formed). The lower boundary is 128.74, and the upper boundary is 152.89. The seller's vector 11-12 interacted with the lower boundary of the range, where key volumes of the vector passed ("rKC" on the chart). The buyer absorbed these volumes on December 23, meaning they defended the lower boundary of the range. The current buyer's vector is 12-13, with a potential target of 146.54 (152.89). The obstacle for the buyer is the test level of the seller's zone at 142.82 (the seller's zone is the red rectangle on the chart). It makes sense to look for buying opportunities (buy patterns) as part of the idea of realizing the buyer's vector 12-13. I wish you profitable trades.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by AlexeyWolf
Gold still preparing for it's macro shift to a new yearly candle Weekly seems to be gravitating to lower levels, clear dealign range and we're sitting in the lower half of it. I predict with everything added coming into the yearly that the new candle will seek for imbalance correction below before finding it's high Monthly showing clear imbalance zone still resting in the lower portion of September's candle. This is where I believe the new yearly candle will want to reach
OANDA:XAUUSD
by HollywooodTrades
Will Ethereum reach $8500 ?Ethereum (ETH) has been a focal point in the cryptocurrency world, drawing both admiration and skepticism. As Q4 unfolds, Ethereum has shown remarkable resilience, staying on its intended path despite market fluctuations. This article explores Ethereum's journey, its current standing, and the potential for it to reach the ambitious target of $8,500. Everyone criticizing Ethereum should take note: ETH is still on track and hasn't deviated from its course. In Q4, Ethereum was never expected to reach new all-time highs (ATH). Despite performing better than anticipated, ETH remains steadfast on its intended path. It exhibited a bearish pattern, forming higher lows and lower highs before stabilizing. It then marked a higher low, established a bear market high, broke through this high, retested it just before Q4, and began its upward trajectory. Here's how the forecasted ETH pattern looks—believe me, we're still on track. 📈 Ethereum's chart demonstrates a clear path forward, with key indicators suggesting sustained growth. The technical analysis points towards Ethereum reaching significant levels, with the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level being a crucial milestone. I believe $8,500 is a realistic target for Ethereum, corresponding to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level. The Fibonacci extension tool is commonly used in technical analysis to predict future price movements based on past price trends. The 2.0 Fibonacci extension level suggests that the price could potentially double from its previous move. In this case, reaching $8,500 fits within the expected range of this extension level, making it a plausible target. When ETH's price reaches the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level, its market cap will be approximately $625 billion, reflecting a 155% increase. If the price continues to rise and reaches the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level, the market cap would soar to around $859 billion, marking a 214% increase. These levels are calculated based on today's price. To all the Ethereum doubters out there: Keep talking while ETH keeps building. 📈 Your doubts fuel our progress. Watch and learn! 💪🔥 Ethereum's journey is far from over, and its resilience in the face of criticism only strengthens its position. As it continues to build and innovate, ETH is poised to reach new heights, potentially hitting the $8,500 mark and beyond. Ethereum's path is filled with potential, and the signs are pointing towards significant growth. With the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level serving as a realistic target, $8,500 is within reach. Whether you're an investor or a skeptic, keeping an eye on Ethereum's progress is essential, as it continues to defy expectations and carve its path in the crypto world.
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by Eaglizer
1
Bitcoin - Bitcoin went below $100,000!Bitcoin is below the EMA50 and EMA200 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Bitcoin sell positions can be looked for in supply zones. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. Following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted from its peak of $108,135 on December 17 to below $95,000. Powell’s comments, which signaled the Fed’s ongoing battle against inflation, triggered a sharp selloff in the cryptocurrency market. He indicated that only two interest rate cuts might occur in 2025, as opposed to the four cuts previously anticipated. Additionally, the Federal Reserve revised its 2025 inflation forecast from 2.1% to 2.5%. Even the 2026 forecast stands at 2.1%, exceeding the central bank’s 2% target. This suggests that inflation could persist for another two years, compelling the Fed to keep interest rates elevated for longer than initially projected. Bitcoin ETFs, after experiencing 15 consecutive days of capital inflows, saw an unprecedented $680 million outflow on Thursday. This trend continued into Friday, with an additional $270 million withdrawn. Cryptocurrency investors, reacting to the Fed’s decision to slow monetary easing next year, moved substantial capital out of the market. In the United States, Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed gold ETFs in assets under management (AUM). Despite gold ETFs’ 20-year history, Bitcoin ETFs now manage $129.3 billion, compared to $128.9 billion for gold ETFs. MicroStrategy, a company renowned for its massive Bitcoin holdings, successfully entered the Nasdaq index. With 439,000 Bitcoins valued at $42.64 billion, the company controls approximately 2% of the total Bitcoin supply. This milestone highlights MicroStrategy’s strong position in the Bitcoin market and has boosted its stock price (MSTR) to $364.20. The company’s innovative strategy of leveraging Bitcoin as a growth asset showcases a unique approach in the financial world. Bitcoin’s volatility has steadily decreased in recent years. By October 2024, its monthly volatility had dropped to 11%, lower than that of high-profile tech stocks like Tesla (24%), AMD (16%), and Nvidia (12%). Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, recently shared his outlook on the cryptocurrency market. He predicted a “horrific collapse” around the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on January 20, 2025. Hayes wrote, “The market believes Trump and his team can deliver immediate economic and political miracles,” but pointed to a gap between investor expectations and the “absence of quick, viable policy solutions.” Hayes forecasted that implementing changes to cryptocurrency policies would likely take far longer than the market anticipates. He added, “The market will soon realize that Trump, at best, has only a year to execute any policy changes in or around January 20. This realization will trigger a massive selloff in cryptocurrencies and other Trump-related trades.” He also predicted that a “steep decline” would occur around Trump’s inauguration day, followed by a “crack-up boom phase” in late 2025. This phase, typically seen after financial crises, is characterized by rapid price increases, high inflation, and financial instability.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Nasdaq, waiting for the final days of Santa Rally?!The index is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the supply zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq sell positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the demand zone will provide us with the conditions to buy it. The Federal Reserve, in its latest meeting, reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4.25%–4.50%. However, FOMC members now forecast the 2025 interest rate to hover around 3.9%, higher than their September projection of 3.4%. Markets were largely surprised by the Fed’s hawkish stance, especially following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, indirectly emphasized during the post-meeting press conference that policymakers are currently assessing the impact of Trump’s economic policies on inflation and growth. This shift has unsettled investors, dampening the optimistic market sentiment that typically precedes the Christmas holiday. Concerns are rising that if the Trump administration follows through on its campaign promises regarding taxes, tariffs, and immigration, the Fed may have to reverse its rate-cutting trajectory and adopt rate hikes instead. The outlook for 2025 has also seen adjustments. The Federal Reserve now expects only two rate cuts in 2025, compared to four cuts forecasted in September. This adjustment reflects the persistent inflation that remains above the central bank’s target range. Following the Fed’s announcement, the S&P 500 experienced its steepest decline in 27 months, falling over 3.5%. The last time the U.S. stock index saw such a significant drop was in September 2022, during peak inflation and amid aggressive monetary tightening. Similarly, the Nasdaq dropped by 3.6%, marking its worst decline in five months. Morgan Stanley also revised its outlook for the Fed, predicting two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, instead of the previously anticipated three cuts. On the economic front, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, scheduled for release today, is likely to draw market attention. This index has risen steadily over the past two months, while one of its components—the sub-index measuring “job finding difficulty”—has declined during the same period. Given its strong correlation with the official unemployment rate, a further drop in December could signal job growth and a stronger dollar. On Tuesday, November data for durable goods orders and new home sales will be released. Durable goods orders, which grew by 0.3% in October, are expected to decline by 0.4% month-over-month. However, investors often focus on the more specific “non-defense capital goods orders (excluding aircraft),” which tends to exhibit less volatility and is a key input for GDP calculations. Overall, if market volatility persists during the holiday season, equities and bonds are likely to be impacted. The Fed’s hawkish tone is unfavorable for stocks, suggesting continued selling pressure as Treasury yields rise. The U.S. Treasury plans to auction two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes this week. If demand falls short of expectations, bond yields could face additional upward pressure. Deutsche Bank, in a recent note, highlighted a significant shift in the Fed’s tone. Although the Fed reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%–4.50%, analysts noted a more hawkish stance than expected. One key indicator of this shift is the upward revision of the 2025 median inflation forecast to 2.5%, which Deutsche Bank described as “notable.” According to this report, the Fed does not anticipate inflation returning to its 2% target until 2027. Furthermore, the Fed’s updated forward guidance lacked any clear indications of future rate cuts. Jerome Powell described the December rate cut as a “difficult decision,” which faced opposition from Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed. Deutsche Bank analysts believe the Fed is unlikely to take any action during its January meeting, and the current pause could extend into a prolonged hold throughout 2025. Forecasts suggest that interest rates will remain above 4% next year, with no additional cuts anticipated.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND