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Multiple Time Frame Analysis

WTI - Stability in the Middle East!WTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. If the downward correction continues towards the demand zone, the next opportunity to buy oil with a suitable risk reward will be provided for us. Following the ceasefire in Lebanon, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that in the coming days, the United States will work with regional countries, including Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and Israel, to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza that guarantees the release of hostages and the end of the war.However, he emphasized that such a ceasefire should not allow Hamas to remain in power. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office. This tariff will also include crude oil, with no exceptions considered. Additionally, Trump is preparing another executive order to lift the suspension on liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits that was implemented under Joe Biden’s presidency. This executive order might require the Department of Energy to approve pending permits or resume reviewing new applications. This move is seen as part of Trump’s early energy policy agenda. Wall Street has expressed concerns about the potential impact of Trump’s second term on oil prices. Analysts suggest that oil producers may try to boost production before stricter regulations from the Biden era return. However, some experts believe that the nature of shale oil production in the U.S. makes long-term supply increases challenging. Unlike OPEC nations, where oil production is often controlled by national oil companies, oil production in the U.S. is divided among major corporations, independent producers, and private companies. This analysis aligns with Goldman Sachs’ outlook. Goldman Sachs has forecasted that U.S. crude oil production will increase by just 500,000 barrels per day this year, down from the 1 million barrels per day increase seen last year. Nevertheless, the U.S. will still account for 60% of non-OPEC oil production growth, with the Permian Basin in North America expected to grow by 340,000 barrels per day—lower than Wall Street’s initial projection of 520,000 barrels. According to Bloomberg, Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports have reached their lowest level in two months. The four-week average of these exports up to November 24 dropped to around 150,000 barrels per day, marking the fourth decrease in five weeks. This decline is largely attributed to a significant reduction in oil flows to India, Russia’s primary buyer, although weekly exports have seen a slight uptick. Additionally, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Kazakhstan have issued a joint statement emphasizing the importance of market stability and their commitment to voluntary production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. In this context, Reuters analysts predict that OPEC+ will likely maintain its oil production cut policy for an extended period due to weak global demand. This group, which accounts for nearly half of the world’s oil production, faces challenges in deciding whether to increase or further reduce production. Increasing production is risky under current conditions, while further cuts may be difficult due to some members’ desire to boost output. Meanwhile, rising gas prices have posed significant challenges for European policymakers this winter. Javier Blas, a Bloomberg analyst, believes that Europe has not yet fully faced the realities of the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He warns that Europe has overly attributed last year’s successes to favorable weather conditions. However, these conditions have changed, and this winter is expected to bring higher gas and electricity prices. This situation places significant pressure on energy-intensive industries, with many large factories either reducing activity or shutting down. Households, too, will face greater inflation due to higher energy costs. These challenges have also put central banks like the European Central Bank and the Bank of England under pressure. Wholesale gas prices in Europe have risen to €47 per megawatt-hour, which is double the February price and 130% higher than the 2010–2020 average.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ali_PSND
AUDUSD-The first interest rate cut is postponed until next year?The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the channel ceiling, we can see the supply zones and sell within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. The loss of the drawn support range will pave the way down for this currency pair. The Australian government’s plan to reform the central bank by splitting its board into two divisions is close to becoming law.Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s administration is pushing through dozens of bills in the Senate during the final parliamentary session of the year to implement these major reforms. In this process, the government and the minority Green Party reached a last-minute agreement to revive stalled legislation. Previous negotiations had failed because the Greens demanded an immediate interest rate cut by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, which critics argued could undermine the central bank’s independence. Now, with sufficient political support, these long-awaited reforms are set to be enacted soon, potentially reshaping Australia’s monetary and economic policies. Australia’s four major banks—ANZ, Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank, and Westpac—have adjusted their forecasts for when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make its first interest rate cut. Westpac and NAB now expect this to occur in May 2025, while CBA and ANZ continue to anticipate a February 2025 cut, albeit with caution. The next RBA meeting is scheduled for December 9–10, 2024. S&P Global Ratings, in its outlook for the global economy in Q1 2025, stated, “Risks are increasing as the new U.S. administration’s policies are likely to heighten inflationary pressures and tighten financial conditions.” The agency predicts global GDP growth of about 3% in 2025, with U.S. economic growth dropping below 2% and China moving toward 4% growth. According to Bloomberg, economists anticipate that China’s exports will hit a record high this year as international customers place orders early to avoid potential tariffs threatened by Trump. Meanwhile, Australia, known as a safe haven for heavy-duty pickup trucks, is set to experience its most significant automotive shift in years, with new models arriving, including the first off-road hybrid vehicle from China’s BYD. Australia, famous for its love of SUVs and petrol-fueled pickups, remains one of the laggards in adopting electric vehicles. According to the Australian Automobile Association, EV sales in Q3 dropped by 25% compared to Q2, accounting for just 6.6% of the market—the lowest share since 2022. However, the arrival of new hybrid models like the BYD Shark 6 could transform Australia’s automotive market and boost demand for electric and hybrid vehicles. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce reiterated the country’s opposition to unilateral U.S. tariffs. He urged the U.S. to adhere to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and emphasized that imposing tariffs would not solve America’s economic challenges. China’s stance against unilateral tariff increases, including those threatened by Trump, remains consistent. On the other hand, the U.S. economy grew at a robust pace in Q3, primarily driven by a significant surge in consumer spending as inflation continued to ease. GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.8% during this period. Consumer spending, the primary engine of economic growth, increased by 3.5%, marking the highest rate this year. According to the GDPNow model, the real GDP growth rate (seasonally adjusted annual rate) for Q4 2024 was revised to 2.7% on November 27, up from 2.6% on November 19. Following the release of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Income and Outlays report, real personal consumption expenditures growth for Q4 was revised upward from 2.8% to 3.0%.
Short
by Ali_PSND
ASX 200 futures could tease bears at these highsThe ASX 200 futures market has struggled to retest 8500, after a brief and uninspiring spell above it. Overnight gains on Tuesday were seen on low volumes, and Wall Street indices have provided a weak lead today. A bearish divergence has also formed on the daily and 1-hour chart. While prices have rebounded from the weekly pivot point, price action looks corrective. Hence the bias for it being a corrective channel that could break to the downside. If we see prices rise at the open, I am on guard for it being a 'last hurrah", which could make it a suitable market to fade into with a stop above the record high. The weekly pivot (8390), weekly VPOC (8348) and weekly S1 around 8300 make viable downside targets for bears. MS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
The RealReal, Inc - 150% gain waiting for collectionOn the above 2 week chart price action has corrected around 50% since May. A number of reasons now exist to consider a long position. They include: 1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts. 2) Support confirms past resistance (blue arrows). 3) The trend, higher highs higher lows. 4) The Bull Flag, 2nd impulsive wave imminent. Is it possible price action continues correcting? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: You decide Timeframe for long: Yesterday Return: 150% Stop loss: Say elsewhere
NASDAQ:REALLong
by without_worries
3
400% extension for Upstart Holdings IncOn the above 10 day chart price action has corrected 70% since mid 2023. A number of reasons now exist for a long position, including: 1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts. The recent rally in price action has broken the downtrend confirming past resistance as support. 2) Regular bullish divergence. 3) The falling wedge pattern has now confirmed with a 400% forecast to 130. Is it possible price action continues with the correction? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: <= 6% Timeframe to target: 2024 Stop loss: elsewhere
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by without_worries
9
XAUUSD - Gold will reach $2,700!?Gold is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of failure of the drawn trend line, we can witness the continuation of downward trend to demand zone, and in that zone, we can buy with appropriate risk reward. The continuation of the upward movement of gold and its reaching the supply zone will provide us with its next selling position. Gold price volatility remains high as the precious metal reacts to changes in geopolitical instability caused by the incoming administration of US President-elect Donald Trump. However, Nitesh Shah, head of commodity research and macroeconomics at WisdomTree, still predicts that gold's upward trend will continue in 2025. In a recent interview with Kitco News, Shah stated that he expects the US dollar to depreciate in 2025, which will benefit gold prices. He added that although Trump's policies can help strengthen the dollar at the beginning of the year, it will be difficult to maintain this trend; Because the government budget deficit will continue. "Most likely, debt will increase and that should put downward pressure on the dollar," he said. Meanwhile, Shah believes the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cutting policies could help lower bond yields, another factor driving gold prices higher. He said in his recent research note: "Now that we are back in the cycle of interest rate cuts, bond yields have fallen and investors are ready to buy gold again." Although Shah is optimistic about gold, in his opinion, the price of this precious metal will have limits to growth in the coming year. He predicts that gold prices will reach around $2,850 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2024. "The current situation is still relatively positive for gold," Shah said. "Originally, I was projecting $3,000, but according to my updated modeling, to reach that goal, bond yields would need to fall significantly from current levels." On the other hand, the Bank of America (BofA) in its recent report has pointed out four key aspects of the future US government policies that can reduce the demand for gold in the short term. These factors include the increase in interest rates and the strengthening of the US dollar. However, these negative factors do not in any way affect Bank of America's positive long-term outlook for gold, with gold prices expected to reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025. Deregulation: Deregulation policies in the energy and financial services sectors could increase interest rates, which would make gold less attractive. Fiscal policy: Broader and longer tax cuts could boost short-term economic growth and push interest rates higher, posing challenges for gold. Tariffs: The increase in tariffs on China and other major countries can lead to pressure on the currencies of emerging markets, and this may reduce gold purchases by central banks. Fed policy: If economic growth and tariffs push up inflation, the Fed may stop the rate-cutting cycle, which would reduce the appeal of gold as a safe haven. Impact on gold demand: In the short term, there is a possibility of reducing the desire of investors to buy gold due to the mentioned policies. Central banks in emerging countries may reduce gold purchases due to currency pressures from tariff risks. The long-term outlook remains positive: Structural demand from central banks and strategic investors underpins a positive long-term outlook for gold. The attractiveness of gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks, economic instabilities and possible inflationary pressures remains. Conclusion: Although near-term policies under the incoming US administration, including stronger economic growth, higher inflation and a stronger dollar, pose significant headwinds for gold, Bank of America maintains its forecast of $3,000 an ounce by the end of 2025. . This long-term optimism stems from structural and cyclical factors that support gold demand in a challenging policy environment.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GBPAUD - England will continue its economic growth?!The GBPAUD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of failure of this channel, we can see the supply zone and sell within that zone with appropriate risk reward. Continued movement in the channel will pave the way for this currency pair to go down to the demand zones. GBPAUD buy positions can be looked for in two demand zones. Donald Trump, the U.S. president-elect, has threatened to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports starting January 20, the day his presidency begins. In response, China’s embassy in Washington stated on Monday that neither the United States nor China would win a trade war. Liu Pengyu, the embassy spokesperson, said in a statement: “China believes that economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States is inherently mutually beneficial.” In Australia, the monthly CPI index remained unchanged at 2.1% year-on-year in October, falling short of expectations for an increase to 2.5%. This marks the lowest annual inflation rate since July 2021. Core inflation indicators provided mixed signals, with CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel dropping from 2.7% to 2.4% year-on-year. However, the trimmed mean CPI, the preferred measure of core inflation, rose from 3.2% to 3.5%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures in certain sectors. Michelle Marquardt, head of price statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, highlighted that declines in electricity and fuel prices had a significant impact on annual CPI. She emphasized the importance of core inflation measures like the trimmed mean in offering deeper insights into inflation trends amid significant price fluctuations. In the UK, according to the latest Reuters poll, house prices are expected to rise by 3.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026. These figures show slight adjustments compared to September’s survey. In London, house prices are projected to grow by 3.0% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026. October inflation data for the UK exceeded expectations. Headline inflation rose to 2.3%, while core inflation unexpectedly increased to 3.3%, and services inflation reached 5.0%. Rising energy costs and a slowdown in declining goods prices were the primary drivers of this inflation increase. The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in December and cut rates by 25 basis points at its February meeting next year. Overall, the UK’s economic performance appears slightly better than the Eurozone, though it still struggles to achieve sustainable growth and economic recovery. The UK’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.6 in November, with the new orders component falling to 47.0. The services PMI also declined to 50.0. These figures suggest that the Bank of England faces challenges not only in controlling inflation but also in improving economic activity, production, and employment. As a result, the central bank is likely to adopt a cautious and measured approach in its policy decisions, at least for the next month.
Long
by Ali_PSND