Cardano ADA - 200D SMA Bull Regime DetectionTo view script:
Understanding the chart
Bullish Regime:
The price is currently above the 200D SMA, indicating a bullish regime and a regime duration of 16 bars.
Strong Momentum:
Large distance from price to both SMAs (119.62% and 141.38%) suggests powerful upward momentum
Historical Price Action
Long Bear Market (2022-2023):
Extended period below 200 SMA
Multiple failed attempts to break above
Declining 200 SMA indicating strong bearish trend
Accumulation Phase (Mid-2023):
Price consolidated around 200 SMA
Reduced volatility
Built base for current move
Recent Breakout:
Clean break above 200D SMA
Sharp increase in volume and momentum
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
NZDCAD: Oversold Market & Pullback 🇳🇿🇨🇦
NZDCAD may pull back from a key daily horizontal support.
The market looks quite oversold after an extended bearish rally.
As a confirmation, I see a double bottom and a breakout of its neckline
on an hourly chart.
Target - 0.8189
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AUDJPY may fall from the bearish order block.Bearish Momentum Expected from the BEARISH ORDER BLOCK
Bearish Order Block: 100.805 - 100.644
The market is currently in a downtrend, with bearish order blocks forming frequently—indicating strong selling pressure. A significant bearish order block has been identified between 100.805 and 100.644, making it a key zone to watch. For those looking to capitalize on this trend, it’s advisable to wait for the price to retrace and touch this order block before entering short positions.
This setup aligns with the overall market direction and has a high probability of success based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC). Let’s see how the price unfolds from this level, as there’s a strong chance this trade could end in profits. Stay patient and disciplined for the best entries!
AUDJPY / SHORT / M15
LOT :- 0.3
Entry Price :- 100.639
Take Profit :- 100.355
Stop Loss :- 100.923
XAU/USD 22 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 12 November 2024, I highlighted the anticipation of a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH) as an indication of a bullish phase initiation. Price has now confirmed this by printing a bullish CHoCH.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range and remains consistent with the broader pullback requirements of higher timeframes. This internal range forms the basis for today's expectations.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade up to the premium of the internal 50% equilibrium (EQ), where it is currently positioned. Alternatively, price may trade higher to reach the H4 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low at 2,536.855.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
Yesterday's intraday expectation played out as price successfully printed a bearish CHoCH before targeting weak internal high.
Price has since printed a double bullish iBOS.
Price has yet to print a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), which is crucial to establishing an internal range and indicating the initiation of bearish pullback phase. CHoCH positioning is marked with a blue dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Technically, price is expected to print a bearish CHoCH, signaling the initiation of a bearish pullback phase, trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
Alternative Scenario:
The H4 timeframe remains in a bullish pullback phase. Price is trading at the premium of its internal and swing 50% equilibrium (EQ) and H4 supply zone where we could see a bearish reaction.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders are advised to exercise caution and remain vigilant for potential whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
USDCHF - Who is the next head of the Fed?!The USDCHF currency pair is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the ceiling of the channel and sell within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions for this currency pair.
According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump is considering options to choose Kevin Warsh as Treasury Secretary, and it is possible that he will later be nominated to head the Federal Reserve. The decision is still undecided, and Trump will likely make his final decision near the end of Jerome Powell's term in May 2026.
On the other hand, according to Bloomberg, the Bridgewater company has announced that Trump may choose the chairman of the Federal Reserve who will follow his policies more. Because of Trump's economic policies, the US may not be able to reach the 2% inflation target. Trump's plans may increase costs and thus favor the stock market over bonds. Bob Prince, Bridgewater's chief investment officer, said Trump's policies on tariffs, fiscal stimulus and immigration are likely to keep the U.S. from reaching its 2 percent inflation target.
If U.S. inflation approaches 3 percent over the next year and a half, Trump may appoint a Fed chairman who is aligned with a higher inflation target and allows interest rates to fall.
Also, Goolsby, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has predicted that interest rates will drop significantly next year. Referring to the significant reduction in inflation and the state of the labor market, he expressed confidence that the inflation is moving towards the 2% target of the central bank and that the labor market has reached the level of almost full and stable employment.
Buy Signal BTC 1HMEXC:BTCUSDT
Due to the recent significant growth of Bitcoin and the CPI we have today,
It is a little bit high risk trade, But still worth entering.
Explanation of Buy Signal: The IDN has been grabbed and before hit the high (ATH), got back and hit the MPL & SCOB zone, So in this cases we enter with confident because we know about its Win Rate. ;)
Remember to always exit partially, And
"KEEP CALM & OBEY YOUR PLANS."
I will update Bitcoin and Gold regularly,
Happy trading..
Cheers,
Aurio
#Crypto #Trading #Bitcoin #markets #Finance #Forex #BTC CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Trade Recaps: USDJPY-LONG, GBPJPY-LONG, 21/11/2024UJ & GJ Bias Analysis: Both setups were very similar so correlation risk was high and I was effectively risking 1% on 2 separate setups. The Daily was trading at a premium, however after price began re-establishing a bullish counter trend, we pulled back into Internal range liquidity, mitigating the 62.5% and 70.5% fib levels on UJ & GJ respectively. Long entries were in line with the 1H bullish ranges and entry confirmation was achieved by means of a 15M reversal candle and Micro-timeframe confluence (1M Market Structure shift or 5M FVG inversion).
Grade:
- UJ: High Risk
- GJ: Low Risk
What I did well or could've done better:
- I choked my stop losses on both pairs as I was trying to achieve the highest possible R:R. This led to being stopped out after price traded lower on both pairs to sweep MTF TBL.
- I was focused and identified re-entry opportunities. I stuck to my trade management plan and only executed a re-entry on GJ as my plan allows for 3 maximum consecutive losses per day.
USDCAD Long Market structure Bullish on HTFs DW
Entry at Daily and Weekly AOi
Weekly rejection from AOi
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection from AOi
Around Psychollogical Level 1.39500
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 7.26
Entry 95%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King
Gold: Staying Bullish Despite the NoiseGold has been trending bullishly for some time, with multiple breaks to the upside confirming the trend. However, the most recent move saw a break to the downside. While this may lead many traders to turn bearish, I see this as a potential reaccumulation phase rather than a trend reversal.
From my perspective, this move could be a trap to generate liquidity below before targeting the cloud of liquidity identified above. If this analysis holds true, we might see a push higher and potentially a new high forming in the near future.
What do you think about this move? Let me know in the comments! 🟡📈
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before trading or investing.
AUDCHF long setupEntry timeframe (4H) ()
- Double bottom followed by a bullish M without break of structure (SL below 1st low + at least 5 pips)
- Going BE once the 4H TP is hit
- Rounded bottom in the making
Daily timeframe ()
- Impulse/corection
- Inverse head and shoulders (valid after dissecting)
- Breaking out of the correction (90% rule kicking in: 90% chance of reaching the beginning of the correction
- Once the beginning of the correction is hit my trailing stop becomes active
Weekly timeframe ()
- Big bottom formation (multiple attempts to break the last lower low)
- Bullish fib within my correction (TP aligning with weekly S1)
- Bullish supply and demand zone
- First time break within my correction
3/4 (MS + MP/FIB/ZONE) + market psychology
GBPUSD Short opportunity Re-entry in Order Block Price made the high of the week on Wednesday and closed yesterday's daily candle with a bearish pattern. Today, I was looking for shorts only and found a good entry earlier during the London session, hitting Wednesday's low. Price just gave a reentry in the order block around 1.26470. Targeting today's low and ultimately Tuesday's low, with a longer-term target at Monday's low around 1.26014.
Additionally, today's focus is on the weekly jobless claims data, which could impact market sentiment. Stop-loss is set above today's high around 1.26600, a psychological level, to manage risk effectively. RSI is showing bearish divergence, supporting the short bias. Overall market sentiment is bearish due to increased concerns over economic data. Keep an eye on upcoming economic data.
Chart Annotations:
- Wednesday High
- Thursday High
- Monday Low
- Tuesday Low
- Wednesday Low
- Order Block around 1.26470
- Selling Point at 1.26415
- Buying Point at 1.26427
NZDCAD SHORT Market structure Bearish on HTFs DW
Entry at Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection At AOi
Previous Daily Structure Point
Around Psychological Level 0.83000
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 6.7
Entry 105%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King
XAU/USD 21 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 12 November 2024, I highlighted the anticipation of a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH) as an indication of a bullish phase initiation. Price has now confirmed this by printing a bullish CHoCH.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range and remains consistent with the broader pullback requirements of higher timeframes. This internal range forms the basis for today's expectations.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade up to the premium of the internal 50% equilibrium (EQ), where it is currently positioned. Alternatively, price may trade higher to reach the H4 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low at 2,536.855.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
Yesterday's intraday expectation played out as price successfully targeted the weak internal high at 2,641.940, following a reaction from the M15 demand zone. Price has printed a bullish iBOS.
Price has yet to print a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), which is crucial to establishing an internal range and indicating the initiation of bearish pullback phase. CHoCH positioning is marked with a blue dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Technically, price is expected to print a bearish CHoCH, signaling the initiation of a bearish pullback phase.
Alternative Scenario:
The H4 timeframe remains in a bullish pullback phase. Price is trading at the premium of its internal and swing 50% equilibrium (EQ), where a reaction has been observed. Additionally, price is approaching an H4 supply zone, which could prompt further reaction.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders are advised to exercise caution and remain vigilant for potential whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
USDJPY - The weakness of the yen will stop?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of correction due to the release of economic data this week, we can see demand zone and buy within that range with appropriate risk reward. Breaking the downtrend line and the specified resistance range will pave the way for the currency pair to rise to the supply zone. We will sell currency pairs in that range.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) to Release Review of Monetary Policy Tools
According to Reuters, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to release the findings of a comprehensive review next month, evaluating the advantages and drawbacks of various unconventional monetary policy tools employed over the past 25 years to combat deflation. This review is seen as a symbolic step towards ending BOJ’s era of massive stimulus measures.
The report will include findings and surveys that justify BOJ’s plan to gradually normalize its monetary policies. The review’s results are expected to be published after the final BOJ policy meeting of the year, scheduled for December 18–19, and may include a potential rate hike from the current level of 0.25%.
Japan’s ruling coalition, comprising the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, has reached an agreement with the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP) on an economic stimulus package. The package includes cash handouts for low-income households, subsidies to assist with utility bill payments, and additional investments in artificial intelligence and semiconductors.
The three parties have agreed to raise the income tax threshold and continue discussions on reducing gasoline taxes. This agreement requires legislative revisions to be addressed during next year’s parliamentary session. Following the ruling coalition’s loss of its majority in the lower house, DPP’s support has become crucial for advancing the package. However, some economists have expressed skepticism about the package’s limited impact on boosting consumer spending.
BOJ Chief Kazuo Ueda’s Remarks:
Kazuo Ueda, the BOJ Governor, stressed the need for the government to monitor medium-term financial sustainability. He stated that the policies of the new U.S. administration will be closely examined and integrated into Japan’s economic outlook as a key priority.Ueda also highlighted the transformative impact of generative AI on the financial industry.
Massive Treasury Bond Sell-Off by Japan and China
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Japan and China, two of the largest holders of U.S. government debt, sold significant amounts of U.S. Treasury bonds during the third quarter of this year. Japanese investors offloaded a record $61.9 billion worth of these bonds in the quarter ending September 30, while Chinese funds sold $51.3 billion in the same period, marking the second-largest volume recorded. These sell-offs occurred ahead of the U.S. presidential election and Donald Trump’s victory.