XAU/USD 24 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 21 February 2025.
Price printed as per yesterday's analysis and bias.
Price has printed a bearish CHocH indicating, but not confirming bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,954.955
Alternative scenario:
Given HTF (Daily and Weekly) have also printed bullish iBOS' it would not come as a surprise if price printed a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 21 February 2025.
Price printed as per analysis and bias dated 20 February 2025.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
You will note my comments in yesterday's analysis whereby I mentioned that as we await for H4 TF to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation, it would be a realistic expectation for price to print a bearish iBOS.
This scenario seems underway, price has targeted strong internal low, however, price has, thus far, not been able to close below.
Intraday Expectation:
Technically price should target weak internal high priced at 2,954.955, however, my alternative scenario remains live.
Alternative scenario:
As we await for H4 TF to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation, it would be a realistic expectation for price to print a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
DXY. Attempt to change the trendHey traders and investors!
In a recent analysis of the AUDUSD currency pair (available in related posts), I mentioned a high probability of a reversal forming on the weekly timeframe. This conclusion was also supported by the situation on the daily timeframe. Currently, a similar situation is observed with the US Dollar Index.
This review illustrates the relationship between different timeframes, aiding in making better decisions in asset analysis and entry point identification.
1D Timeframe
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is in a downtrend on the daily timeframe after breaking down from a consolidation range. The boundaries of this range are marked by black lines on the chart. A key level protecting the breakout from the range is 106.957, which marks the beginning of the last seller's impulse.
At the start of this impulse, a seller's zone formed (red rectangle on the chart). At the end of the impulse, there was a buyer's bar with increased volume, indicating buyer interest at these price levels. The volume in this bar is concentrated in its upper part (blue line on the chart), suggesting potential seller interest.
Key Levels on 1D Timeframe:
Key resistance (start of the last seller's impulse): 106.957
50% of the last impulse: 106.435
Last impulse low: 105.913
Trading Recommendations:
Selling:
Look for selling patterns near resistance levels, especially around 106.957.
Buying:
Currently, there are no conditions for buying (bearish trend). Buyers need to consolidate above 106.957 to change market dynamics and create opportunities for buying patterns.
Now let's analyze a higher timeframe to understand potential downward targets and obstacles. In my opinion, the 11-day timeframe shows the situation best.
11D Timeframe
On the 11-day timeframe, the price is moving within a sideways range, with the upper boundary at 106.952 (close to the daily level of 106.957) and the lower boundary at 99.099.
The last realized vector in the range is a buyer's impulse 7-8. The key bar of this impulse (highest volume) is located in its middle (marked as KC on the chart).
The price broke above the upper boundary of the range during this impulse. However, the seller returned the price into the range, forming a seller's zone above the upper boundary (red rectangle on the chart). This seller's zone corresponds to the daily range.
All of this appears as manipulation (false breakout) of the upper boundary of the range. The current seller's vector is 8-9, with a potential target of 99.807 (99.099).
Obstacles for sellers include the key bar of the buyer's impulse, inside of which is the 50% retracement of the last impulse. I expect the first buyer reaction (long bar on the 11D timeframe) after the price declines to the range of 105.112 - 104.843.
Thus, the 11-day timeframe supports the conclusion on the daily timeframe about the advisability of searching for short positions. Similarly, one can analyze a smaller timeframe, for example, the hourly, to look for short entry patterns.
Key Levels on 11D Timeframe:
Upper boundary of the range: 106.952
50% of the last buyer's impulse: 104.843
First target for selling (PT Short): 99.807
Lower boundary of the range: 99.099
I wish you profitable trades!
DXY - Fed’s Rate Cut Gamble Clashes With ECB Hawkish HoldSuccessful delivery this week with daily sell stops taken out @ 106.566 as expected. This caused risk on conditions for FX pairs; GBPUSD and EURUSD.
The heaviness to the downside indicates continuation to the downside.
106.111 - 105.440 is a price region i am scoping
PARESHANI continues!!As we can see NIFTY despite its weakness has not reached our demand zone and our psychological level of 22500 hence these is more room for fall till signs of REVERSAL is seen around these zones and trendline support for a new trend so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching.
USDJPY. The price is at a key level – shorts might be relevant!Hey traders and investors!
An interesting situation in the currency pair.
The price has returned below the upper boundary of the range at 149.4. Is all the traded volume above this level fueling further price decline? There is a lot of volume up there...
We are watching how the price interacts with 148.644. A breakout of this level by sellers and its defense would be a strong signal to look for selling opportunities.
Potential target: 142-139.
I wish you profitable trades!
XAU/USD 24-28 February 2025 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025. You will note how price has continued bullish.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
Swing -> Bullish.
Internal -> Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as last week's analysis dated 16 February 2025. You will note that CHoCH positioning has been brought closer to current price action. This allows for price to not pull back so deep to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Since my last weekly analysis price has printed a bullish iBOS. Bias and analysis has been accurate over the last few months.
Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low.
Bearish ChOCH positioning is denoted with a blue shorter dotted line and is very well positioned to print bearish CHoCH which is the very first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation
Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 21 February 2025.
Price printed as per yesterday's analysis and bias.
Price has printed a bearish CHocH indicating, but not confirming bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,954.955
Alternative scenario:
Given HTF (Daily and Weekly) have also printed bullish iBOS' it would not come as a surprise if price printed a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
EURUSD POTENTIAL SHORT OPPORTUNITYHello Everyone!
How are you all?
EurUsd is a pair to watch this week, because it is shaping up very nicely for a bearish trend continuation that we can capitalize on.
So, I will be looking for a sell continuation because of the following reasons:
1. The overall trend is bearish.
2. The price has formed a continuation structure.
3. The price is approaching the value area.
Game Plan:
If the price comes to the VA, and rejects at that level or sweeps the High, and makes a bearish impulse followed by a 15mins flag with two highs and lows.
Entry : will look for a risk sell entry within the flag or a reduced risk entry on the breakout of the flag.
GBPUSD POTENTIAL SHORT OPPORTUNITYHello Everyone!
How are you all?
GbpUsd is still presenting a short opportunity that we can capitalize on this week, because it is shaping up very nicely for a bearish trend continuation .
So, I will be looking for a sell continuation because of the following reasons:
1. The overall trend is bearish.
2. The price has formed a continuation structure.
3. The price is approaching the value area.
Game Plan:
If the price comes to the VA, and rejects at that level or sweeps the High, and makes a bearish impulse followed by a 15mins flag with two highs and lows.
Entry : will look for a risk sell entry within the flag or a reduced risk entry on the breakout of the flag.
GBP/USD Analysis for the Coming Week (Feb 17 - 21)
Market Overview: Last week, the pound experienced significant gains, driven by stronger than expected UK GDP reports. Despite strong CPI figures, the dollar generally weakened due to Trump's reciprocal tariffs wait.
Price Action:
Weekly Performance: Price bounced off the weekly iFVG to close higher, taking out previous weekly highs.
Imbalances: Multiple imbalances were left, most notably the daily FVG which aligns with the 4-hour and 1-hour buy-side imbalances.
Targets: Price is expected to fill these imbalances and move higher, targeting:
Last week's high at 1.2630
External range liquidity at 1.2665 and 1.2700
Monthly Outlook : The monthly candle is being pulled towards the imbalance at 1.2800.
Monday is a holiday no news will be waiting for trump speech on tuesday a, uk cpi y/y wednesday together with FOMC.
Conclusion: Overall, GBP/USD is set to continue its upward momentum, with key levels to watch being 1.2630, 1.2665, 1.2700, and 1.2800.
EURUSD 24-28 Feb 2025 W9 - Weekly Analysis - US GDP / PCE Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 24-28 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
Inflation Data Dominates
Hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI/PPI initially fueled inflation fears, but signs of moderation in underlying PPI components raised hopes for softer PCE data next week.
Investors see a growing chance of Fed rate cuts in late 2025, limiting USD strength.
Tariff Noise vs. Market Calm
Trump’s tariff threats (e.g., reciprocal steel/aluminum duties) were largely dismissed as negotiation tactics, easing fears of an immediate trade war.
Markets expect delays in implementation, reducing near-term volatility.
Geopolitical Progress Supports Risk Sentiment
Reports of progress in Ukraine-Russia peace talks (e.g., territory swaps) reduced safe-haven demand for the USD, indirectly boosting the Euro.
Stabilizing energy prices and supply chains further supported the Eurozone outlook.
Central Bank Divergence
The Fed remains cautious, emphasizing data dependency, while the ECB signals potential rate cuts later in 2025.
Short-term EUR resilience stems from reduced trade-war risks and improving Eurozone economic data.
Focus on Upcoming Catalysts
This week PCE inflation report (Fed’s preferred gauge) will test disinflation optimism.
Weak U.S. retail sales/industrial production amplified concerns about slowing growth, weighing on the USD.
Key Takeaways
Bullish Drivers:
Progress in geopolitical tensions.
Softening inflation expectations ahead of PCE data.
Tariffs seen as negotiation tools, not immediate threats.
Bearish Risks:
A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness.
Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks.
Overall Sentiment:
Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD this week, with upside hinging on sustained risk appetite and confirmation of disinflation trends.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Internal Bearish (Pullback Phase)
🔹In Swing Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS)
3️⃣
🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase.
🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous weeks analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS.
🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after volatile week.
🔹With the previous week solid Bullish close, the Demand did hold and there is a high probability that price could continue Bullish to facilitate the INT structure pullback phase.
🔹If price to continue Bullish, price will be targeting the liquidity above Dec 2024, INT Structure EQ (50%) at 1.06933 to target the Weekly Supply in premium before continuing down to target the Weak INT Low.
🔹Expectations is for price to continue Bullish if it managed to break 1.05333 27 Jan High to facilitate the INT structure pullback.
Daily Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone.
3️⃣
🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone.
🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low.
🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH.
🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase.
🔹Previous week I mentioned “if the Daily formed a Bullish CHoCH (Currently above the recent mitigated Supply) this will shift my outlook to the Weekly Scenario of a deep pullback of the Weekly INT Structure to at least the Structure EQ (50%). MTF required to shift Bullish to confirm”. And with that happened I’d shifted to Bullish expectation and there is expectations of a deep pullback within the Daily Bearish INT structure.
🔹The expected targets for the current bullish move is 1st to sweep the liquidity above the equal highs (17 Dec & 27 Jan) 2nd Break of the Strong INT High to facilitate the Daily Bearish Swing pullback and the Weekly Bearish INT pullback.
🔹Currently Supply is failing and Demand is holding confirms the short-term Bullish scenario and setting my expectations for continuing Bullish. Price had pulled back to the recent Daily Demand and continued Bullish.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand)
🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply)
🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%)
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹As expected yesterday, price managed to continue Bullish after reaching the INT-INT structure EQ (50%) in a solid impulsive move aligns with the Swing continuation move.
3️⃣
🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme where we are getting the current corrective Bearish OF.
Economic Events for the Week
XRP area of interest - If it fails I'd love to buy below !⭐️ XRPUSD hasn't been up to much recently so nothing really to share on it. ⭐️
🟢SeekingPips🟢 remains strictly BULLISH and has been buying up the dips.
ℹ️ I would really like to see a big FU flush before the next move up BUT WHAT I WANT is irrelevant. As traders we have to do what the maket is doing and stick to OUR PLAN.
✅️ Just for the records tho sub $2 I fill my pockets again.
Weekly Edge – End of Week 08, Prepping for Week 09 Market Overview
Quarterly Chart
- Bullish momentum continues into Q1 2025, printing new highs above Q4 2024 levels.
- Six consecutive quarters of higher highs and higher lows reflect sustained bullish momentum.
Monthly Chart
- Breakout from a short consolidation phase, with January closing above December and November highs.
- Price has broken above the recent swing high near 2780.
- An imbalance just below 2780 could serve as a point of interest (POI) for potential long continuations.
Weekly Chart
- Bullish momentum continues, with higher highs and higher lows since January 2025.
- Price has traded above the previous intermediate-term high (ITH) at 2790 and the psychological level of 2800.
- Recent weekly candles closed within the previous week’s range, signaling a potential slowdown in momentum.
Daily Chart Analysis
- Consolidation range between 2940 (high) and 2860 (low).
- Price tested highs near 2955 but stalled around the ITH at 2942.
- Strong rejection on Friday’s retest of Week 7’s Friday close suggests a valid POI for potential long continuations.
Trade Setup & Execution
Long-Term Bias
- Bullish momentum remains strong on higher timeframes, favoring long continuations
Short-Term Bias
- Shorts are valid for potential reversals from current highs, targeting the range low near 2860.
Trade Updates
- Short entry on Wednesday based on a lower-timeframe reversal signal, exited with a small loss.
- Re-entered short on Friday after observing another reversal signal.
Key Observations & Strategy for Week 09
- Stick to the plan and focus on execution without improvisation.
- No attachment to trades—exit and reassess if invalidated.
- Define a clear plan, execute it, and reassess post-trade.
- Avoid mid-trade discretionary changes to ensure consistent outcomes.
Final Thought
The market moves on its own terms. Consistent execution and learning from each trade will provide an edge over time.
#XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #WeeklyEdge #PipsnPaper
GBP/USD - Bulls ROAR To The Upside!In regards to last weeks bias, GBPUSD delivered successfully to the upside, sweeping and closing above the area of interest mentioned throughout this week of 1.25762.
I will also be watching dollar index closely next week to see if we can continue the downside delivery into the discounted range of 105.188 as that will play a major role in GBPUSD rallying to the upside.
Happening Now: AUDJPY Swing Move Setup Buy- on Weak JPYBased on a strong AUD and weak JPY - see the currency index charts.
We've had a rejection off an area and Weekly candle last week closed engulfing - confirming bullishness.
Major news this week may create the conditions for volatility.
Will wait for a reversal pattern in price action before confirming the Buy.
USOIL Reversal in Motion? Key Levels You Can’t Ignore!Market Structure Breakdown:
🔸 Daily Timeframe:
• We initially identified a double-bottom formation, signaling a bullish push to grab liquidity above previous highs.
• However, buyers failed to sustain momentum, leading to a structural shift.
🔸 H4 Timeframe:
• Strong impulse move downward, breaking key structure.
• Formed a lower high, indicating seller control.
🔸 H1 Timeframe:
• Entry confirmation: Lower high + structure break + retest.
• Current Position: Short trade floating +142 pips in profit.
• Stops secured in profit = No risk on the trade.
🎯 Next Targets & Key Levels:
✅ Target 1: Sweep 7040 low.
✅ Target 2: Potential drop to 7026 if momentum continues.
⏳ Crucial Confirmation Needed:
• If today’s bearish candle closes above average, it will confirm a true lower high and increase chances of breaking consolidation to move lower.
🛠 Trade Management:
• Profits taken at: +30 pips, +60 pips, +100 pips.
• Current floating: +142 pips.
• Overall target: +212 pips (1:5 / 1:6 RR).
• If we break consolidation, we’ll trail TP and maximize gains.
This trade is a textbook example of a failed bullish push leading to a structural breakdown. With stops locked in profit, we’re letting the trade play out risk-free, while looking for further downside expansion.
If you’re tracking USOIL, keep an eye on these key levels and watch how price reacts! 🚀📊