GBPUSD - Dollar, waiting for the release of the CPI index?!The GBPUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The continuation of the trend of this currency pair will depend on the maintenance or failure of this channel.
If the upward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see a supply zone and sell within that zone with a suitable risk reward. In case of channel failure and downward correction, you can buy this currency pair within the specified demand zone.
According to a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, consumer inflation expectations in the United States showed some changes in November compared to October. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3%, up from 2.9% last month.
Additionally, three-year inflation expectations reached 2.6%, slightly higher than the 2.5% recorded in October. Five-year expectations also edged up from 2.8% to 2.9%.
The Federal Reserve’s survey indicates that participants anticipate a decline in costs for gasoline, rent, and food over the coming year.
Expectations about future government borrowing have also dropped significantly.
The report further highlights that many respondents are optimistic about their financial situation improving next year. This positive outlook has reached its highest level since February 2020.
Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, has warned that Donald Trump’s tariff plans could disrupt prior efforts to curb inflation and lead to higher consumer prices. Speaking at the Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council, she stressed that broad tariffs could increase costs for American consumers and businesses dependent on imports.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has performed impressively this year, supported by strong economic conditions. However, Morgan Stanley analysts, including David Adams, caution that holding long positions on the dollar may now be a mistake as the currency faces downside risks.
Bloomberg reports that while efforts to combat inflation have been largely successful, lingering price pressures could undermine confidence in further interest rate cuts.
Reuters has reported that the Bank of England intends to maintain its cautious stance and keep interest rates steady. Simultaneously, the European Commission has advised EU member states against granting the UK greater access to the bloc’s electricity market. This recommendation comes despite warnings from the energy sector about higher costs for consumers and slower progress toward green energy transitions.
In a policy document outlining the EU’s stance on future negotiations with the UK, the European Commission emphasized that the principle of “limited choice” should also apply to electricity trade. The document noted that the UK’s decision not to rejoin the single market has restricted deeper cooperation in the energy sector, and partial participation in this market would neither benefit the EU nor align with the European Council’s guidelines.
In October, British and European energy companies called for a revision of post-Brexit energy trade arrangements to establish a “green energy hub” in the North Sea. They warned that the current framework is not only inefficient but also jeopardizes shared commitments to generate 310 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2050.
On Monday, the U.S. and UK announced a fresh wave of sanctions targeting what they described as the illicit gold trade. The UK claimed that this trade finances Vladimir Putin’s war efforts in Ukraine and fuels corruption.
The British government froze the assets of four individuals accused of gold smuggling, as well as another individual who had purchased over $300 million worth of Russian gold, generating revenue for the Russian government. In a statement, the UK’s Foreign Office said: “Illicit gold trade is an attack on the legitimate trade of a valuable commodity, fueling corruption, undermining the rule of law, and enabling human rights abuses, including child labor.”
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
NZDUSD OUTLOOKOn the monthly charts, we have a bearish outlook with signs of bullish correction. On the same monthly chart, we have a fresh order block indicating there is downside pressure.
Lately, the Kiwi has come under a lot of pressure since China cut their interest rates. Presently we are anticipating a further weakening of the kiwi across the board caused by weakening economic data from China.
On the daily charts, the Kiwi is set to form new lows confirming the medium term bearish trend as we wind down the year.
AAVE and ONDOHello traders and investors!
It's time for a correction in crypto assets. I've selected two assets that look stronger than the market.
AAVE
On the daily timeframe, there is an uptrend. There was a false breakout of the level marking the start of the last buyer's impulse – 240.05.
On the hourly timeframe, there is a sideways range, and the buyer's vector 9-10 is active.
You can look for buy opportunities with targets at 300 (288, 297).
ONDO
On the daily timeframe, the buyer has formed an impulse. There was a small correction, during which a buyer's zone formed yesterday (green rectangle on the chart). The level of the daily test, 1.61094, passes through this zone.
On the hourly timeframe, the price formed a range. The buyer’s vector moved above the upper boundary of 1.68925, but the buyer returned the price to the range, forming a seller’s zone at the top of the range (red rectangle on the chart) and hit the daily test level of 1.61094.
You can look for buy opportunities with targets at 1.95 and 2.0, preferably from the buyer's defense at 1.61094 or 1.46712 if the price returns to those levels.
Good luck with your trading and investments!
Ready to go very very very soonThe stock appears to be in a pullback phase. I anticipate it will find support around the previous monthly highs, keeping prices contained between that level and the anchored VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) from the recent swing high. Once the price advances back up toward this anchored VWAP and experiences a slight pullback, the key will be to break through it. If the stock establishes a pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the 30-minute chart, it would strengthen the bullish outlook.
XAGUSD. Trading opportunityHi traders and investors!
Overall, nothing particularly interesting is happening in the market from a daily timeframe perspective. If we don't delve into lower timeframes to look for trades, silver can be considered.
Daily Timeframe Analysis
On the daily timeframe, the price has formed a range that began in April. The upper boundary is 32.5185, and the lower boundary is 26.0185. The seller's vector 9-10 is relevant, with a potential target of 26.471 (26.0185). The price has reached the level of 32.16, where the seller might resume (see previous posts). Below, a buyer’s zone has formed with an upper boundary of 31.478, what could become an obstacle for the seller.
4H Timeframe Analysis
On the 4-hour timeframe, the price has also formed a range. The upper boundary is 31.5365, and the lower boundary is 29.643. The buyer’s vector 9-10 has moved beyond the upper boundary of the range.
If the seller returns the price into the range (below 31.5365) and defends this return, the seller’s vector 10-11 will be relevant, with a potential target of 30.3165 (29.643).
If the buyer defends the breakout from the range, the potential target is to update the local high (31.286) and reach 31.5185 (the range boundary on the daily timeframe).
From my subjective point of view, the daily timeframe currently favors the continuation of the buyer's movement. However, a correction down to 30.3165 is possible.
Good luck with your trading and investments!
Is a massive correction for alt tokens about to print?This is a short term forecast affecting anything inside the TOTAL2 market cap. That is the entire crypto market excluding Bitcoin.
The crash is forecast to occur over the next 14-20 days.
In four days from now a “life cross” will print on the above daily chart, it is inevitable.
What is a life cross?
It is when the 50 day simple moving average (blue line) crosses up the 200 day simple moving average (red line)
AND
Price action is above the 200 day simple moving average.
The majority of market participants see this as a positive sign. A green light to enter long positions. However for you lucky what is it now wow 14,000 followers (thank you!), you’ll now know it is not what it seems. Like me you're scientific about all this and look left.
But before we look left, I want you memorise how far TOTAL2 market capital is above the 200 day SMA, about 30%
November 12th, 2023 life cross -10% correction
Price action was 20% above the 200 day SMA
February 18th, 2023 life cross -15% correction
Price action was 15% above the 200 day SMA
February 2020 and May 2020, -70% and -17% corrections
Price action was 57% and 20% above the 200 day sma
April 13th, 2019. Life cross -23% correction
Price action was 34% above the 200 day sma
In summary, the further price action was above the 200 day SMA the harder it dropped.
We can infer that a 15-20% correction should be expected across TOTAL2.
Use this low as an opportunity to collect your favourite token from emotional sellers.
Ww
Gold- Towards target after confirmation?In yesterday's post, I highlighted the high probability of an upward breakout above the 2655–2660 resistance zone. As anticipated, XAU/USD successfully broke through this key level, confirming its importance.
Following the breakout, the price reached a high near 2675 before undergoing a normal correction. This pullback was healthy for the trend, as it retested and confirmed the previously broken resistance zone (2655–2660) as new support. This successful retest reinforces the strength of the bullish momentum.
Looking ahead, my outlook remains optimistic. I anticipate a new leg higher, with the price likely targeting the 2685 resistance zone. I will maintain my bullish stance as long as the 2660 area holds firm as support. My preferred strategy is to "buy the dips," taking advantage of pullbacks within the broader uptrend.
BTC 1h updateOn the daily chart, the market is in a consolidation phase, showing both a single-bar upthrust and a double-bar spring. On the 1-hour chart, a downtrend began on December 9 at 11:00 PM. For a potential short position, watch for an upthrust near the 98,320 resistance level, confirmed by strong volume and price action.
Gold- 2655-2660 zone remains key for bulls on medium-termLast week's price action was mostly range-bound, characterized by sharp spikes in both directions but lacking a clear trend—challenging conditions for medium-term swing traders.
In my last two posts, I shared a moderately bullish bias and even managed a sniper entry at the NFP low. However, Gold failed to sustain upward momentum, so I opted to close the trade with a modest 100-pip profit.
Looking at the bigger picture, bulls have shown resilience around the 2620 level. Even last night’s losses were quickly reversed after the market opened, which is another encouraging sign for bullish momentum.
That said, a critical resistance level around 2655 continues to cap any medium-term uptrend. For a more substantial move—potentially 400-500 pips—this resistance must be decisively broken .
I maintain my bullish outlook and will look to enter on dips. If and when the price breaks above the 2655 resistance level, I plan to double my position to capitalize on the potential upside.
However, a daily close below 2620 would invalidate this scenario and prompt me to reassess my strategy.
EURUSD / M15 / SHORTEURUSD May Fall from the Bearish Order Block
Bearish Order Block: 1.05683 and 1.05632
EURUSD is currently following a downtrend, and a potential bearish order block has been identified between 1.05683 and 1.05632 on the M15 timeframe. If the price retraces to this order block, it presents an opportunity for a short position. With strong bearish momentum in place, there is a high probability that the price will respect this zone and continue downward, aligning with the overall market structure.
I've outlined two take profit targets for this trade setup, offering clear risk management and reward opportunities. Let’s monitor how the price reacts to the order block and unfolds further.
EURUSD / M15 / SHORT
LOT :- 0.2
Entry Price :- 1.05630
Take Profit :- 1.05222
Stop Loss :- 1.05752
EURUSD prime setupWeekly timeframe ()
- First time trying to switch from a bullish to a bearish market structure
- Bullish candle (retracement)
- Bullish supply and demand zone: bears could have kicked in yet the bulls managed to close back above this zone (false break trading back above)
Daily timeframe ()
- Bullish M
- Inverse head and shoulders
- At least weekly relief so daily market structure irrelevant
4H timeframe ()
- Inverse head and shoulders without break of structure (SL below head)
- When dissecting the pattern on the 1H/2H timeframe there is no immediate reaction on the high making it valid to execute
XAU/USD 10 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Today's analysis and bias will remain the same as analysis dated 26 November 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
Intraday expectation and analysis dated 25 November 2024 printed as anticipated, with price successfully printing a bearish iBOS after targeting the weak internal low.
A correction from yesterday's intraday expectation: instead of targeting the weak internal high, price was expected to target the weak internal low.
Price has since printed a bullish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming, bullish pullback phase. We are now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade up to either the internal 50% EQ or the M15 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low at 2,605.310.
Alternative Scenario:
The H4 timeframe has printed a bearish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bearish pullback phase coupled with the fact that H4 TF is now trading in discount of internal 50%. However, this suggests that bearish momentum on M15 may face limitations as the broader H4 phase unfolds.
Note:
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders should remain cautious and prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart: