Multiple Time Frame Analysis
4H timeframe possible buy set up - On the 4H TF, Gold was breaking structure bearish and changed character bullish.
- Wait for price to reach the 4H order block.
- Then switch to the 15min Timeframe and wait for a 15min re-alignment with the 4H bullish structure.
- On the 15min timeframe, mark out your point of interest/ order block and set up your buy limit order and target the 4H Swing high.
Sell Setup GBPUSDTime Frame:
- Daily: FVG Identification
- H4: FVG Identification
- H4 Entry Signal
1. Trend Confirmation:
Identified a Break of Structure by the break of the previous resistance at 1.2830 area, indicating a continuation in market sentiment.
The break of up trendline will add extra confirmation for bearish continuation.
2. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
On the Daily & H4 chart noted a Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 1.2768 - 1.2857
3. Position:
Entry : 1.2730
Stop Loss : 1.2861
Take Profit: 1.2150
RRR : 1:4,7x
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Disclaimer
The analysis and content provided here are intended solely for personal journal and educational purposes. This information does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Gold weekly chart with Buy and sell levels Gold weekly chart with Buy and sell levels.
Gold traded bearish for the month end.
Indicators on the monthly chart
Stochastic is at extremes and when you see this we normally follow for a correction.
RSI showing overbought
MacD at extremely high levels and convergance meaning a fall.
For a sell entry ill look at entering at 2638 expecting 2630,2622 and 2610 follow it down until we see high first support at 2591, continue on monitoring all the levels marked.
For a buy ill look at entering at 2664 expecting 2671,2677, 2684 and 2700.
As always trade safe use a trailing stop and a stop loss.
Use good risk management .
Long trade
30min TF Entry
Buyside trade
Thu 5th Dec 24
6.00 pm
NY to Tokyo Session PM
Entry 95900.23
Profit level 103214.31 (7.63%)
Stop level 95714.89 (0.19%)
RR 39.46
Reason: I initially anticipated that the Bitcoin would reach 100,000 on my previous buy-side trade attempt on December 4, 2024 (PM), but I was stopped out. However, observing Bitcoin’s strong momentum and breaking through the 100,000 barrier at this time gave me the conviction to enter another buy-side trade.
Is a Big Move Coming in Crude Oil?Crude oil has been limping for most of this year, and now some traders may see risk of a bigger drop.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the relentless series of lower highs since September 2023. The trend lines along these peaks have dropped at steeper angles, which potentially reflects increased selling pressure.
The second pattern is the series of slightly higher lows since September 2024. That may be viewed as a bearish flag.
Third, consider the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). They swung earlier in the year, with the faster above the slower at times but that changed 2-3 months ago. They’re now in a clearer sequence, with the faster SMAs below the slower SMAs. All three are also falling. That could also indicate a longer-term downtrend has developed.
Next is the support zone around 64.50 to 67.75. Prices bounced quickly from this range between March and June of 2023, but are now spending more time in the same area. That could suggest longer-term support is fading.
Speaking of longer-term support, the second chart uses 2-week candles to compare the current environment with late 2014. Both saw long periods of sideways movement with lower highs. The earlier moment saw an accelerated downtrend once the weekly support level broke. Could a similar move be coming soon?
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Trading Strategy for AMD and QCOM1. Fibonacci Retracement:
AMD: The chart shows Fibonacci levels drawn from the recent peak to the trough. Key levels are around 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%.
Entry Points: Look for buying opportunities at the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels, which historically act as strong support zones where price often reverses.
Exit Points: Set targets around the 23.6% retracement level or the previous high, considering volume and momentum.
QCOM: Similar Fibonacci strategy applies. Identify retracement levels from recent highs to lows.
Entry: Buy at 38.2% or 50% if the price shows reversal patterns like bullish engulfing or hammer at these levels.
Exit: Aim for the 23.6% level or previous resistance zones.
2. Market Segment Analysis:
AMD: Given its position in the semiconductor industry, especially with advancements in AI and gaming, AMD's price movements can be influenced by tech sector trends, competitor news, and broader market sentiment towards tech stocks.
Strategy: Keep an eye on industry news, competitor earnings, and broader market indices like NASDAQ for correlation.
QCOM: As a key player in mobile technology and IoT, QCOM's stock can be influenced by mobile device sales cycles, 5G adoption rates, and regulatory news concerning its licensing model.
Strategy: Monitor global smartphone market trends, regulatory news, and advancements in 5G/6G technology for potential impact on stock price.
3. Risk Management:
Stop Losses: Place stop losses below the last significant low for long positions or above significant highs for shorts, adjusted for volatility.
Position Sizing: Ensure no single trade risks more than 1-2% of your total trading capital to manage risk effectively.
4. Integration with Other Tools:
Volume Analysis: Use volume spikes to confirm trend strength or potential reversals.
Earnings Reports: Both stocks are sensitive to earnings. Plan trades around these events, considering options for less risk if expecting volatility.
This strategy leverages technical analysis with Fibonacci retracement for entry/exit points, aligns with broader market trends, and considers segment-specific news for AMD and QCOM, aiming for a balanced approach between technical precision and fundamental awareness.
XAU/USD 06 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Today's analysis and bias will remain the same as analysis dated 26 November 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
Intraday expectation and analysis dated 25 November 2024 printed as anticipated, with price successfully printing a bearish iBOS after targeting the weak internal low.
A correction from yesterday's intraday expectation: instead of targeting the weak internal high, price was expected to target the weak internal low.
Price has since printed a bullish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming, bullish pullback phase. We are now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade up to either the internal 50% EQ or the M15 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low at 2,605.310.
Alternative Scenario:
The H4 timeframe has printed a bearish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bearish pullback phase coupled with the fact that H4 TF is now trading in discount of internal 50%. However, this suggests that bearish momentum on M15 may face limitations as the broader H4 phase unfolds.
Note:
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders should remain cautious and prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
GBPUSD longs to close off the week.Having a look at W1, we can see that the previous week closed strong bullish engulf. This, to me, indicates and possible shift in momentum. The current weekly opened and pushed straight down and is currently making the top side of the candle. With NFP due today in like 5-6 hours, we could see a huge buy-up of price.
Having a look at the current daily, confluence for buys can be seen as the candle formation is favourable. Waiting to see a break of 1.27750 to see price continue with an immediate push to the upside. 1 hour left till the H4 close, so will most likely wait for that.
:)
BTC 1h updateWe've initiated a short position on the 1-hour chart, setting our sell level at 99,134, which aligns with the base of the sell effort bar. Currently, trading volume has decreased, indicating a lack of strong interest from both buyers and sellers. I'm anticipating that the price will approach this sell zone with minimal buying activity, at which point I expect sellers to assert themselves. At that juncture, we can look for a reliable upthrust pattern on the 5-minute chart to identify a suitable short entry point. Let's observe how this scenario unfolds.
BTC 1D updateOn Thursday, December 5, 2024, the market formed a substantial upthrust bar at the resistance level established on November 23. This upthrust bar exhibited significant volume, with a positive delta volume indicating that buying pressure slightly exceeded selling pressure. However, an upthrust bar, characterized by a wide range and high volume closing near the low, often signals potential price declines. Therefore, a downward movement toward 86,702 is possible. However, the price may attempt to retest the sell zone and the upthrust level, potentially trapping early sellers. Caution is advised in this scenario.
BTCUSDT. Short term analysisHello traders and investors!
Daily Timeframe Analysis
On the daily time frame, a range was formed on November 14, with the lower boundary at 85,072 and the upper boundary at 93,265.64. The seller's vector 5-6 is currently in play, with a potential target of 86,128.21 (85,072). Yesterday, the seller attempted for the second time to push the price back into the range below 93,265.64, but the buyer is still buying up.
Hourly Timeframe Analysis
On the hourly time frame, the seller has formed an impulse, with the impulse starting at 104,088 and ending at 90,500. Currently, the buyer has pushed the price back above 97,416.59, which is the start of the last buyer's impulse. The first resistance for buyers is 98,828-99,000.
In a situation like this, it’s difficult to give priority to either the buyer or the seller. Formally, as long as the price is above 97,416.59, buying opportunities can be considered. If the price drops below 97,416.59, selling opportunities can be considered.
It’s preferable to see strength from one of the sides (spread and volume), such as in the form of a buyer’s or seller’s zone, and then join the buying from the buyer's zone or selling from the seller’s zone upon their resumption.
Good luck with your trading and investments!
UBER Technologies, Inc to crash 35%And that might just be the beginning of the end for UBER.
** A forecast for the months ahead **
On the above 6 day chart price action has rallied an astonishing 300% in the past 24 months. A number of reasons now exist for a bearish outlook. They include.
1) “Insider Has Just Sold Shares In Uber Technologies”
“Chief Marketing Officer and Senior Vice President of Communications & Public Policy recently netted about US$2.0m selling shares at an average price of US$72.90.”
simplywall.st
Don’t ignore insider selling.
2) Price action and RSI support breakouts.
3) Regular bearish divergence.
4) The Put/Call ratio. Calls outnumber Puts 3 to 1.
Is it possible price action continue up? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
STELLAR BULLISH MOMENTUM-XLMCRYPTO:XLMUSD
XLM Continuation Rally: An Analysis
Bullish Arguments:
PMH (Previous Monthly High) disrespected
PML (Previous Monthly Low) disrespected
Weekly Bullish FVG respected
PWL (Previous Weekly Low) disrespected
PWH (Previous Weekly High) disrespected
PDL (Previous Daily Low) disrespected
4H swing low disrespected
4H Bullish FVG respected
Bearish Arguments:
PDH (Previous Daily High) respected
4H swing high respected
Bullish 81.82%- Bearish 18.18%
Trade Management:
This setup involves high risk and requires close monitoring of price action. Use a tight stop-loss (SL) to manage risk, and aim for a take-profit (TP) near the 2021 ATH zone. Staying alert to market movements is critical for this trade