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Multiple Time Frame Analysis

GBPNZD - The pound, in relative peace!The GBPNZD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and has left its downward channel. In case of a downward correction, we can see demand zone and buy this currency pair in that zone with a suitable risk reward. According to recent data, the UK’s economic indicators have shown various changes. M4 money supply, a key economic measure, has declined by 0.1%, compared to the previous figure of 0.6%. This drop may reflect reduced liquidity in the economy. In the area of consumer credit, the Bank of England reported that this metric reached £1.098 billion, lower than the forecast of £1.3 billion and the previous figure of £1.231 billion. This may indicate a decline in consumer demand for credit. Meanwhile, significant growth has been observed in the mortgage sector. Mortgage lending rose to £3.435 billion, surpassing the forecast of £2.7 billion and the previous figure of £2.541 billion. This increase suggests an improvement in the housing market and growing demand for mortgages. Additionally, the number of approved mortgages reached 68,303, exceeding the forecast of 64,500 and the previous figure of 65,647. This growth further highlights increased confidence and momentum in the housing market. Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, has addressed the financial and economic state of the UK, highlighting key concerns. He warned that price corrections could disrupt financing but expressed confidence that households and businesses would remain resilient against economic challenges. He also predicted that the UK’s economic growth would continue “sustainably.” Bailey pointed to heightened global risks and uncertainties while emphasizing that there is no conflict between financial stability and economic growth. Additionally, he noted that geopolitical risks remain elevated. According to Bloomberg and a CBI survey, tax pressures on UK businesses have caused a significant decline in the private sector. For the first time in two years, the budget has been identified as the main reason for reduced business activity. Companies have warned that hiring plans are at their weakest level since the COVID pandemic. Business activity in the UK has been declining for the first time in over two years as firms reduced jobs and limited investments following the October budget. According to the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) monthly growth index, a £26 billion ($33 billion) increase in payroll taxes and prolonged uncertainty caused by a three-month wait for the next budget after the Labour Party’s decisive victory in the July 4 election have significantly impacted private sector sentiment. The UK plans to review the design of its new labor survey in the spring. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that overall employment levels are now 313,000 higher than before the COVID pandemic. The economic inactivity rate has decreased by 0.1% to 22.1%, while the unemployment rate has remained steady at around 4.2%. Employment rates for the period from April to June 2024 increased by 0.1%, reaching 74.6%.
Long
by Ali_PSND
USDCAD - CAD Vs tariffs!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position. You can sell up to the bottom of the ascending channel within the specified supply zone with the appropriate risk reward. The Canadian dollar has underperformed against other currencies this year, largely due to the Bank of Canada’s consistent interest rate cuts. It is expected that the central bank will lower interest rates for the fifth time in December, though the likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut has diminished following a higher-than-expected inflation report. The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) still foresee the possibility of a larger rate cut. Meanwhile, per capita GDP data reveals that economic growth has declined for the sixth consecutive period. Monthly GDP figures indicate that growth in September and October was only 0.1%. According to CIBC, domestic demand remained relatively stable during this time, comparable to the previous quarter. However, monthly data shows that the third quarter ended with gradual deceleration rather than the sharp rebound initially expected, leading to significantly lower fourth-quarter forecasts compared to the projections in October’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). RBC maintains its prediction of a 50-basis-point rate cut but has stated that Friday’s employment report will be closely monitored ahead of the central bank’s December 11 meeting. “GDP numbers reinforce the notion that current interest rates are higher than necessary to maintain inflation at the 2% target. The Bank of Canada will also closely monitor next week’s labor market data, but a further 50-basis-point cut in December is likely,” an analyst remarked. Currently, the Bank of Canada projects 2% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, but this figure is likely to be revised downward. With government forecasts suggesting population declines, the central bank may adopt a more cautious approach for 2025. Deputy Governor Mendes of the Bank of Canada stated that inflation is gradually easing and will eventually stabilize at 2%. Lower inflation will boost consumer and business confidence, encouraging spending and investment. If the economy evolves as anticipated, further rate cuts could be possible. However, he emphasized that decisions will be made step-by-step, considering both above-target and below-target inflation. Mendes warned that additional measures to curb inflation might hurt economic growth, with potentially more negative long-term consequences than short-term benefits. According to Axios, a senior Canadian Liberal minister involved in Sunday’s negotiations stated that Canadian officials plan to “visibly and robustly” enhance border security following a meeting between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President-elect Trump. Trump previously threatened to impose tariffs on Canada and other countries due to his concerns over migrants and drugs entering the U.S. Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s Public Safety Minister, told CBC Radio and Television that Canadian officials met with Trump and Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick to discuss tariffs and their implications for the economy. LeBlanc stressed that existing border security cooperation remains strong but noted concerns over firearm smuggling from the U.S. LeBlanc also shared that during an informal dinner with Trudeau, Trump jokingly suggested that Canada become the 51st U.S. state. He clarified that the comment was made in jest and was not meant seriously.
Short
by Ali_PSND
XAU/USD 04 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024. Price Action Analysis: As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed. Currently, price is trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bearish. Today's analysis and bias will remain the same as analysis dated 26 November 2024. Price Action Analysis: Intraday expectation and analysis dated 25 November 2024 printed as anticipated, with price successfully printing a bearish iBOS after targeting the weak internal low. A correction from yesterday's intraday expectation: instead of targeting the weak internal high, price was expected to target the weak internal low. Price has since printed a bullish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming, bullish pullback phase. We are now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to trade up to either the internal 50% EQ or the M15 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low at 2,605.310. Alternative Scenario: The H4 timeframe has printed a bearish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bearish pullback phase coupled with the fact that H4 TF is now trading in discount of internal 50%. However, this suggests that bearish momentum on M15 may face limitations as the broader H4 phase unfolds. Note: Given the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders should remain cautious and prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Copper - Markets await employment data!In the 4H timeframe, copper is located between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its descending channel. Copper moved down from the supply zone of the previous analysis. If the upward trend continues, it is possible to sell copper in the next supply zone. The downward correction of copper will provide us with the opportunity to buy it with the appropriate risk reward The governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has stated that the central bank will maintain its accommodative monetary policy in 2025. The bank also aims to promote sustainable development in the real estate and capital markets through effective utilization of structural monetary policy tools. Meanwhile, the United States has imposed new export restrictions designed to curtail China’s ability to advance its high-tech semiconductor industry and slow the development of military applications for artificial intelligence (AI). In response, the China Internet Association has expressed that these restrictions will significantly harm the healthy and sustainable growth of China’s internet industry. The association has also urged domestic companies to exercise caution when purchasing American chips and to seek expanded cooperation with chip manufacturers from other countries. In a retaliatory move, China’s Ministry of Commerce has announced a ban on exporting key rare earth metals to the U.S. and is considering stricter reviews for graphite exports. These raw materials are critical for industries such as semiconductors, military systems, electric vehicle batteries, and solar technologies. The ongoing trade tensions between the two nations could have far-reaching consequences for both sides. In the U.S., it is anticipated that November’s employment figures will reflect recovery after being weighed down by recent storms and a major strike.This aligns with a labor market that remains healthy but is gradually normalizing. According to a Bloomberg survey, nonfarm payrolls (NFP) likely increased by 200,000 in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. As the Boeing strike ends and recovery efforts from recent storms begin, November’s job report is expected to be less affected by unusual factors. However, a consistent decline in job openings, moderate employment growth, and layoff plans from companies like Boeing and General Motors indicate a softer labor market overall. These developments, along with Friday’s employment data, could significantly influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions and market expectations for interest rate cuts. The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. construction industry is facing new challenges. The Trump administration’s immigration and trade policies have left homebuilders in a vulnerable position. New tariffs and restrictions on immigrant labor are two key pressures confronting the industry. For instance, McKinney, Texas, which two decades ago was accessible only via a two-lane highway, has now grown to a city of over 200,000 residents, becoming one of the fastest-growing areas in the country. This city’s development has relied heavily on immigrant labor and industries dependent on imported steel and commodities. However, recent policies are imposing new challenges, leaving homebuilders grappling with even greater difficulties.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND
9
BTCUSDT 1h updateAt 8:00 AM (UTC+7) on December 4, a balance formed in the sell zone at 96,374 USDT, following an entry with a bearish tendency at 12:00 AM on December 3. After this upthrust—a temporary price increase above resistance that quickly reverses—there was no significant activity from either buyers or sellers. On the 5-minute chart (M5), no definitive levels have been established yet. If such a level forms and sellers become more active, an M5 upthrust could present a favorable entry point.
Short
by MrXade
BANKNIFTY Trade Setup for Wednesday (04-Wed-2024)Key Notes: Bank nifty swept previous day Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) indicating probable downfall, Price is under higher time frame (H4) Institutional reference levels Institutional references identified Bearish Order Block Bearish Mitigation Block Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) Bank Nifty Futures OI data indicating strong bullish bias Most Likely Bank nifty is going to give a strong breakout from institutional reference levels Morning Session price may open with strong gap up. If gap up is strong enough to break all the key levels, Entire day bullish view If gap up is held strongly by bearish order block, then price is going to take a sharp downfall. Those who carried shorts for delivery yesterday going to experience some pain today.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by chartology369
FANTOM BULLISH-POTENTIAL 6.39RRFantom (FTM): A Bullish Opportunity with Controlled Risk BINANCE:FTMUSDT The current price action of Fantom presents an attractive setup for taking calculated risks. Here are the key bullish arguments supporting this perspective: Previous Monthly Low (PML - November): Disrespected, signaling strength. Previous Monthly High (PMH): Disrespected, further affirming bullish momentum. Monthly Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG): Holding so far; confirmation expected by early Sunday morning. Previous Weekly High (PWH): Disrespected. Previous Weekly Low (PWL): Disrespected. Daily Bullish FVG: Being respected, showing demand at this level. 4H Swing High: Disrespected. 4H Swing Low: Disrespected. Bearish Arguments: Previous Daily High (PDH): Respected, a minor resistance to watch. Previous Daily Low (PDL): Respected. Trade Management: Stop Loss (SL): $0.84–$0.82 Take Profit (TP): $1.90–$1.88 Entry Zone: $0.9951–$0.9683 Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RR): 6.39 I am using Quantfury to manage this trade, a platform I find effective for precise execution. Final Thoughts: The market appears poised for further upside, but stay disciplined and avoid being influenced by noise. The next five months are crucial for crypto, requiring full focus and adherence to your own strategies. Remember, every lesson comes from experience, not just from external opinions. Stay patient, trade smart, and blessings to all!
FLong
by Jaytradermb
Trade Recap: EURUSD - SHORT (SCALE-IN), 03/12/2024EU Bias Analysis: The 4H Is in the process of establishing a bearish pro-trend as price broke lower. Partial profit had been secured and stops were at breakeven which allowed me to then seek scale-in opportunities on this pair. Short entries were in line with the bearish 1H range and price had pulled back into EPD. After a TBL sweep heading into London Open short entry confirmation was received and the scale in was executed. Grade: Low Risk
Short
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
Is Tellor (TRB) about to 25x until $1500 ??On the above 3 day chart price action has corrected 90% from $600 since December 2023. A number of reasons now exist to be long. They include: 1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts. 2) Trend reversal in both price action and RSI. 3) Dragonfly DOJI print on past resistance confirming support. 4) The Bull flag. The bull flag confirmation forecasts a 2nd impulsive move to the $1500 area by Spring of 2025. Is it possible price action corrects further? Sure, retail traders like nothing more than capitulation after a 90% correction. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: you decide Timeframe for long: Within this month. Return: 2500%
Long
by without_worries
12