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Multiple Time Frame Analysis

Potential trade setup on GBPUSDWe are looking at a short trade on GBPUSD based on the stretch strategy. There is direction alignment with this trade, though the trend is still uptrend phase 2. Trade has taken out the lower stretch. We will exit the trade once range has been acheived. Trader Order Details: GBPUSD(Short) E - 1.3274 SL - 1.3307 T - 1.3217 We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
Short
by masterthemarkets2010
10/1 Bull trap is confirmed. Monthly level $64k didn't hold.Overview: The AMEX:SPY started the day with a large red candle, erasing all of Jerome Powell's optimism from his speech yesterday. Early in the session, before the Federal Reserve even released its report, the market was already sliding, triggered by more-than-expected job openings. Within the first 60 minutes of trading, all of last week's gains vanished. Adding to the downturn, trading volume surged, surpassing yesterday’s levels, signaling increased selling pressure. As is typical, the Nasdaq NASDAQ:QQQ experienced more significant swings, hitting its lowest point of the day, which coincided with the highest point from last Wednesday’s rate cut announcement. This underscores the volatility in the tech sector. All eyes are now on Friday's unemployment rate report, where the market expects a figure of 4.2%. Should the report show lower unemployment driven by improving labor conditions, it may compel the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high. Such a move could further dampen the growth of risky assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. Tuesday marked the first day of negative ETF flows for Bitcoin. Major players like Fidelity, Bitwise, and ARK Invest dumped approximately $250 million worth of BINANCE:BTCUSDT . Meanwhile, BlackRock continued its seven-day buying spree, leaving many to wonder: Do they know something retail investors don't? Or perhaps they aren't as "smart money" as often assumed? Only time will tell if loading up at the 60k level was a wise move. Despite initial hopes, Bitcoin has not yet proven itself as a safe haven asset like gold or Swiss francs. In times of heightened geopolitical tension, such as the recent events in the Middle East, risky assets like Bitcoin and altcoins tend to suffer the most. BTC TA: W: In just two trading days, Bitcoin’s weekly candle turned red, dropping the price below the $64 k level, which coincided with both monthly and weekly resistance. Up until Monday, there was still hope for a potential fifth bull wave if BTC could recover the $64 k level after the initial drop. However, continued selling pressure wiped out any bullish momentum. D: Monday's bearish prediction proved correct, with Bitcoin dropping by 3.98% on Tuesday. This sell-off is significant but not unprecedented, as larger price movements occurred in early August with losses of 5.70% on August 2nd and 7% on August 5th. Are we seeing a repeat of early August? September's first week wasn't particularly bullish either, with prices briefly touching 56.9k. Unfortunately, the current MACD setup looks eerily similar to the lead-up to the August 5th crash. Currently, BTC is hovering around the 61.5k level, which was drawn weeks ago as a key support. 4h: The RSI is now oversold, but the MACD has not yet shown any bullish divergence. There is potential for a short-term recovery to the 63.5k - $64 k level, but sentiment remains cautious. Short-term bullish. 1h: On the 1-hour chart, the RSI has started to rise, moving toward the 50 level, indicating a neutral stance. No clear divergences have formed. Altcoins Relative to BTC: Earlier in the week, altcoins were outperforming Bitcoin, negating any concerns of a bull trap. However, they have since retraced to their respective moving averages without front-running this recent BTC crash. Altcoins are moving in sync with Bitcoin, showing no major divergence. Bull Case: BlackRock could be proven right, continuing to buy at the 60k level. Should Bitcoin dip to the $58-60k range, they may accumulate even more, reversing the bearish sentiment and forcing retail traders to halt their selling. Bear Case: The fifth bullish wave has officially failed, confirming a massive bull trap. If BlackRock's strategy fails, retail investors may see a significant wipeout. Fear and Greed Index: The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 39, officially entering "Fear" territory. Historically, entering the fear zone has led to steep declines: 07/04: The market dropped 6% the next day. 08/04: A 15% drop occurred the following day. 09/03: A 9.25% decline within three days. Prediction: The bull run appears to be invalidated. After three weeks of growth, BTC is now likely to correct down to at least the 61.4k - 59.1k range by the end of this week.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by EvgenCapital
XAU/USD 02 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price has continued its surge, reaching all-time highs with minimal pullbacks. The bearish swing pullback phase has been confirmed by a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), which has also established the current swing range. At present, we are trading between the swing high and internal low. Price has now printed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting, but not confirming initiation of a bullish pullback phase. Additionally, the price has reacted from the premium zone above the 50% internal equilibrium (EQ). Intraday Expectation: The expectation is for price to target a weak internal low. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. The price met expectations by targeting a weak internal low and printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). As previously noted, price action has been erratic due to ongoing macroeconomic data and heightened geopolitical tensions. Since the last analysis, the price printed a double bullish iBOS, likely driven by the escalation of geopolitical tensions. The price has also printed a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting, but not confirming the initiation of a bearish pullback phase. Currently, price is positioned at the extreme of a strong internal low, with wicks into this level but no decisive close below. Intraday Expectation: The price is expected to target a weak internal high. However, caution is advised, as the H4 timeframe has confirmed the swing pullback phase with a bearish iBOS, which could limit further upside momentum. With rising geopolitical tensions, Gold is likely to remain highly volatile in the short term. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Microsoft. There is still potential for the price to decline.Hello traders and investors! Let's take a look at the situation with Microsoft stocks. I believe there is still potential for the price to decline. Weekly Timeframe On the weekly TF, there is an attempt to reverse the long trend. The first seller's impulse has been formed. The level of the last buyer’s impulse start is 445.66, and the level of the last seller’s impulse start is 468.35. The end of the last seller's impulse is at 385.58. Key candle in the seller's impulse is from July 24 (largest volume in the impulse, marked as "KC" on the chart). It was tested by the buyer on August 19. The test level is 426.70. The buyer missed the 50% level of the seller's impulse (426.97) by 27 cents. Then, the buyer attacked the test level with two candles on increased volume, bringing the price above the 50% level, but the seller pushed the price back below the test level (426.70), forming a seller's zone above (red rectangle on the chart). Further price decline is likely, with the first target at 400.8, which is the start of the last buyer's sub-impulse on the weekly TF. Daily Timeframe On the daily TF, there’s a sideways range (formed on August 22, with point 4). The upper boundary is 432.15, and the lower boundary is 385.58. The relevant seller's vector is 6-7, with the first potential target being 400.8 (then 385.58). The buyer's vector 5-6 broke above the upper boundary of the range, gathered volume, and the seller returned the price to the range, forming a seller's zone at the upper boundary. This zone was tested on September 26, after which the seller's continuation began. The buyer attempted a recovery on September 30 with increased volume but failed to deliver results. Yesterday, the seller engulfed the buyer's candle. Highlights On both the weekly and daily TFs, the priority is to look for selling opportunities. The last daily candle has increased volume, making it a good point to start looking for sell opportunities. On the daily TF, possible threats to short positions include the 50% level of the last buyer's impulse at 413.72 and the buyer's zone with an upper boundary at 410.65 (green rectangle on the chart). It makes sense to consider buying opportunities when the buyer shows strength, for example, when interacting with the levels of 400 or 385 and defending them. How to decode candle volumes is explained here Good luck with your trading and investments!
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by AlexeyWolf
BTC UPDATEThe scenario from the previous update remains intact. The $65,000 range was identified as a selling zone, with downside targets down to $42,000. Look for short setups on the daily timeframe from newly formed fair value gaps (FVG). A short squeeze is possible, with support found around $58,000 before a break above $65,000. Targets from $68,000 to $73,777 will open up, potentially leading to new all-time highs. If the price moves into the discount zone below $58,000, the probability of continued downside increases. Entry points for shorts can also be considered around the $52,550 level on a reaction. Long positions should not be considered in this scenario. Safe buying should only be considered below $42,000. Any early entries should be based on setups forming on lower timeframes. Focus on risk management: Avoid looking at timeframes lower than 4 hours.
by Goldfinch_song
Trade Recap: USDJPY - SHORT, 01/10/2024UJ Bias Analysis: With 4H displacement lower, and an alignment with the daily short bias, an Optimal Alignment entry presented itself which was in line wit the 1H range. Price traded higher over the course of Asian session into 1H EPD and priori to London open protracted higher, sweeping TBL before displacing lower, where entry confirmation was received. Grade: High Probability What I did well or could've done better: - Did not frame the initial entry the market presented due to the large stop loss, even though the R:R criteria was met. - Stayed focused and was able to execute on the next opportunity that presented itself, despite having a larger stop than the first position which resulted in a lower targeted R-multiple.
Short
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
** Dollar index enters bull market - Life cross prints **On the above 2 day chart price action has entered a bull market. We define this as: 1) The 2-day 50-day SMA (blue line) crossing up the 2-day 200-day SMA AND 2) Price action above the 2-day 200-day SMA. Both of those conditions have now confirmed. The Dollar index is in a bull market. The previous life cross (idea below) printed in November 2021. The dollar index rallied 20% after the cross, I’m sure you noticed. Is this another 20% bull market like 2021? Unfortunately, it is looking that way. However much higher. Not only that but there is evidence to support a faster rate of change in the uptrend. At the moment the dollar index remains in a trading range that began in November 2022. Markets are likely to remain unaffected until the index exits that range. A bull flag has printed since the trend reversal and life cross. The bull flag extension would take price action outside the trading range. When this happens AND past resistance confirms as support… be in cash. No stocks no crypto no metals no animal spirits. This bull market has a 1st target area with the index rallying to 130. Yes you read that correctly. A detailed explanation of why and when this is likely to happen is written elsewhere. Ww November 2021 Life cross
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by without_worries
17
POTENTIAL SHORT OPPORTUNITY ON THE NAS100 (NASDAQ)Hey everyone I hope you are having a blessed weekend so far! Just wanted to get on here and share a potential short opportunity I see on the NAS100 (NASDAQ) index! OK so let's dive in! OK so on the higher timeframe I think it is fairly clear that price is sitting around all time highs for this index...now I DONT USUALLY try to short the stock/indices market very often but I see potential from that previous level of supply formed back in July of this year! We can see that price fell sharply and strongly from that level of formed supply, or seller area. However it makes sense for you! SO what I am really looking for in the current and future price is how the buyers bring price into that level. If it comes very strong to that level that I would NOT be interested in trading it short since momentum=interest in the markets. What I mean is that the markets are like a receipt, the larger the order, the larger the order will appear on the receipt (charts). Alright guys going to keep this one simple! Whatever technical confluences you use with your trading zones of course you should apply and always use good risk management. Appreciate you all please boost post and follow my page for more accurate setups! Cheers! God Bless!
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by JosePips
10