$SPY rolling over, potentially to new lows?While I was early to the idea (like usual), still don't think the thesis will be wrong. I still believe we're going to see a large move down from here.
Yesterday's price action made me pretty confident a top was in (TBD). We had positive news and the market couldn't rally on that positive news and we ended up closing at the lows -- indicating to me there's no more buyers.
Today we have treasuries, the dollar and volatility all rallying while equities selloff, a classic risk off signal. You also have crypto selling off too.
I think we see a large risk off move from here on out, the target is the $440 area (extreme down to $400), but if we find support at one of the other levels above that, there's potential for us to rally from there.
Will have to see how price action plays out over the coming weeks.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Why I Think EURUSD Will Sell This Week...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends,
Happy Monday. I think EURUSD will continue to sell this week. This is only my technical analysis so please check the news and cross reference any indicators you have on your own chart. Here is what I am looking at:
- There has been a break of structure to the downside on H4 signaling that price may continue to drop lower.
- After the break of structure, price opened lower and continued to sell.
- Momentum has been picking up for the sellers over the last 12 hours.
- The stochastic is oversold. The slow line (orange) is above the fast line (blue) and one or both lines are below 20.
These are all strong bearish confirmations for me so I will be selling. I took market execution order but I also have sell stops and TPs at previous lows. My SL will be a previous high.
Only take trades that make sense to you, but I hope the market is in our favor this week. Let me know what you think about this idea below.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
GBPCHF: Bearish Movement Confirmed 🇬🇧🇨🇭
GBPCHF looks bearish after the news today.
The price tested a solid rising trend line on a daily
and formed a confirmed bearish Change of Character
on an hourly time frame.
I think that the price will continue falling and reach 1.0702 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
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EURUSD Long, 29 JulyReversal Setup from Daily OB + LTF Confluence
Price tapped into a Daily Bullish OB with 50EMA support, signaling potential for a bullish reaction. While structure isn’t perfect, the overextension and DXY correlation offer strong intraday confluence.
📈 HTF Confluence:
✅ Sitting inside a Daily Bullish Orderblock
📍 50EMA in the same area → added support
🟢 Expecting a bounce from this zone, even if HTF trend isn’t clearly bullish yet
📉 LTF Context:
💤 Asia range formed, still unfilled → clean liquidity target
📉 Overextended bearish move into 15m POI
🪞 DXY at its own 15m POI + Asia range to complete → supports EU upside
🎯 Entry Plan:
✅ Clear 1m BOS after reacting from 15m Decisional OB
🎯 Entry taken at 5m OB inside that 15m POI zone
⚠️ Decisional OB isn’t ideal, but stacked confluences justify the risk
🛡 SL: Below 5m OB
📌 TP: Asia high + potential continuation if DXY breaks lower
XAU/USD 29 July 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on three separate occasions which has now formed a triple top, this is a bearish reversal pattern and proving this zone is a strong supply level. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
H4 Timeframe - Price has failed to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
GBPCAD OUTLOOKIn this analysis we're focusing on 2H time frame for finding possible upcoming movement in price. So as per my strategy today I'm looking for a sell trade opportunity. Confirmation is very important, after confirmation we'll execute our trade. Let's see which opportunity market will give us.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is my prediction.
#GBPCAD 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
TIA Holding Support – Break Above $2.20 Could Trigger Big MoveLast week, I mentioned that TIA could be preparing for a move and that buying dips around $1.75 might be a good opportunity.
Well, price dropped exactly into that support zone, bounced slightly, and is now consolidating, which could be the calm before the next wave.
________________________________________
📌 Here’s what I’m watching:
• The $2.10–$2.20 zone is now a confluence resistance area (horizontal + descending pressure)
• A break and daily close above this level could trigger a strong leg up, with the next major target around $4.00
________________________________________
📈 Bias remains bullish
As long as $1.70 holds, this setup stays valid, and dips continue to be buyable.
________________________________________
🎯 Trading Plan:
• Looking to buy dips toward $1.80–1.85
• Acceleration expected only above $2.20
• Bearish invalidation only below $1.70
________________________________________
Conclusion:
TIA is respecting structure perfectly. If it breaks above $2.20, we could be looking at a potential double in price toward $4.
Wave 3 Loading? FLOKI Prepares for Potential Upside ContinuationFLOKIUSDT is trading within an ascending channel, recently rejecting from the upper boundary near $0.00034416. Price has since entered a prolonged consolidation phase, forming a descending broadening wedge.
The current focus remains on the $0.00020188 region; a breakout from this level would validate a potential wave 3 extension. Overall structure still targets a revisit to the channel’s upper boundary, supported by the recent bounce from the lower channel trendline.
Key levels and targets are illustrated on the chart.
Total3: Fourth Interaction with 1.07 LevelHi traders and investors!
The altcoin market capitalization (Total3) is interacting with the 1.07T level for the fourth time — and once again, on increased volume. Yesterday’s price action formed a bearish candle after touching this level — a clear seller’s candle.
We’re now watching the 997.47B level closely. A reaction from this level could trigger a reversal in altcoins, with buyers potentially regaining initiative.
Since the last outlook, a new level has appeared at 974.74B — this could also serve as a strong support area and trigger a buyer response, aiming for a retest of the local high at 1.09T.
👉 If no bullish reaction follows at 997.47B, attention shifts to 974.74B.
👉 If that level also fails to hold, we return to the previously mentioned support zone between 921B and 963B — the optimal correction range for a potential new ATH scenario.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
Premarket Analysis - Will Price Head Lower?Hello everybody!
We’re looking at three key areas on the chart.
Price has been rejected from a supply zone.
The clean upward trendline has been broken, and we expect the price to move lower this week.
If the drop continues, we’ll look to sell and aim for the more likely target around 1.16400.
Then we’ll see whether this first demand/support area holds or not.
Have a good trading week ahead!
GBPCHF SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs 3
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 1.07500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 2.98
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Incoming 40% correction for FacebookOn the above 10 day chart price action has rallied 500% since October 2022. It is somewhat unfortunate to see so many long ideas at the moment.
Motley Fool August 8th:
“Here's how Meta could achieve a $2 trillion valuation within three years, and if it does, investors who buy the stock today could earn a 67% return.”
Very misleading.
Why bearish?
Failed support. It is very clear to see, price action has broken through support and confirmed it as resistance. You can see this more clearly on the Log chart below.
Regular bearish divergence. Multiple oscillators now print negative divergence with price action across a 50 day period.
On the monthly chart below a hanging man candle print can be seen. Although the candle does not confirm until the end of the month there is a clear indication of buyer exhaustion. This is an important trend reversal indication.
Is it possible price action continues to rise? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Log chart
Monthly hanging man candlestick
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin continue its upward trend?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its medium-term ascending channel. Bitcoin’s current upward momentum has the potential to reach its previous ATH. If it corrects, you can look for Bitcoin buying opportunities from the identified support area, which is also at the intersection of the bottom of the ascending channel.
If this support is lost, the decline will continue to around $113,000, where you can again buy Bitcoin with a better risk-reward ratio.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market, and capital management will be more important in the cryptocurrency market. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range.
Last week, a group of U.S. senators released an initial draft of a new legislative proposal aimed at creating a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry in the United States. The proposal builds on the recently passed CLARITY Act in the House of Representatives and focuses on strengthening market structure, enhancing consumer protection, and expanding regulatory oversight.
According to the senators, the bill addresses key areas such as banking, disclosure requirements, securities classification, and measures to combat illicit financial activity.Senator Lummis, in highlighting the proposal, stressed the urgent need for legal clarity to support the growth of this emerging industry within the U.S. The legislation aims to facilitate the integration of digital assets into banking services and would allow financial holding companies to provide services based on such assets.
The draft also includes measures aimed at preventing illegal financial activities, such as improving regulatory standards and boosting inter-agency cooperation to identify and block misuse of digital assets.
In addition, the senators have issued a “Request for Information” (RFI) to support the legislative process and have invited the public to share their opinions on more than 35 related topics, encouraging broader engagement in shaping the bill.
Meanwhile, in Asia, Japan-based firm Metaplanet announced that it has added 780 BTC worth $93 million to its digital holdings. This acquisition brings the company’s total Bitcoin reserves to 17,132 BTC, valued at roughly $2 billion. Metaplanet is fast becoming one of the largest institutional Bitcoin treasuries in the region—potentially serving as a model for other firms across Asia.
At the same time, publicly traded U.S. companies have significantly ramped up their Bitcoin holdings. By the end of Q2 2025, these companies had accumulated nearly 900,000 BTC, marking a 35% increase over the previous quarter. This surge, driven primarily by firms such as MicroStrategy, has sent demand for Bitcoin soaring.
Some analysts believe that the $1.5 trillion in free cash flow held by companies within the S&P 500 index could spark a new wave of institutional Bitcoin buying.
Looking ahead, the upcoming week is packed with critical U.S. economic data. Alongside the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) employment report and inflation metrics via the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the initial estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and various other indicators will be released—potentially offering a clearer picture of where the U.S. economy is heading.
The Federal Reserve remains primarily focused on inflation and labor market dynamics. June CPI data indicated signs of inflationary pressure caused by tariffs. If Thursday’s PCE report—particularly its core reading—confirms a similar trend, the Fed may decide against a rate cut in September. As a result, financial markets have priced in only about a 65% chance of a rate cut at that meeting.
Bitcoin Next Leg Incoming? Targets $134K from Bullish WedgeBTCUSDT is consolidating within a descending wedge right above a critical demand zone, following a impulsive breakout from its prior range structure. This current setup suggests another potential bullish continuation, especially as price continues to respect both the wedge support and internal demand.
With the higher timeframe structure favoring bulls and previous demand zones holding firm, the projected breakout targets align with $123,218 and $134,446 respectively.
A clean invalidation would only be confirmed on a sustained break below the wedge and loss of the strong support area near $110K.
All eyes on the wedge apex as BTC prepares for its next major leg.