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Multiple Time Frame Analysis

GBPUSD Bearish Continuation Following NFP and BOE Rate cuts.Fundamental Analysis: NFP Report Impact: On Friday, after the NFP reports, the price spiked higher but then continued to decline, indicating a strong US Dollar compared to the British Pound. BOE Economic Factors: The Pound is struggling with production issues and the recent rate cut by the Bank of England highlights its weakness. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain rates until at least June, further showcasing the strength of the US Dollar. Technical Analysis: Last week opened with a gap to the downside but closed bullish. This week also has also started with a gap and price is looking to fill it. London Session Expectation: Looking for price to move higher during the London session to mitigate the 1-hour SIBI left at 1.2425 after sweeping liquidity at 1.2422 (NY PM High on Friday). Will want to short above daily/weekly open Target Levels: Targeting Thursday's low @1.23600 Overall target is last week's low @1.2250 NB don't forget to manage risk and have an open mind since we follow what the market is printing not what we wish.
Short
by hskarue
EURUSD 14 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday - EU GDP - US Retail SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 14 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment 1. Impact of CPI and PPI on Inflation Expectations CPI Outcome: The headline CPI rose to 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.9% forecast), while core CPI increased to 3.3% YoY, signaling persistent inflationary pressures 10. However, the market reaction was muted due to mixed signals. PPI Analysis: The headline PPI exceeded forecasts (3.5% YoY), but key components linked to core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred metric) suggested a potential moderation. Analysts noted that softer PCE data next week could ease Fed tightening fears, supporting risk assets like the Euro. Investor Positioning: Futures traders now price in 33 basis points of Fed cuts in 2025, up from 29 basis points pre-PPI, indicating growing optimism about disinflation. 2. Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs: Negotiation vs. Trade War Tariff Announcement: Trump’s directive to formulate reciprocal tariffs (e.g., 25% on steel/aluminum) was not immediately implemented, with a delayed enforcement timeline (potentially April). Markets interpreted this as a negotiation tactic rather than an escalation into a trade war. Market Reaction: The USD weakened (DXY fell to 107.25) as investors focused on the negotiation window and avoided panic-driven safe-haven flows. The Euro benefited from reduced trade-war fears, rising to $1.0469 in early Asian trade. 3. Geopolitical Optimism and Risk Sentiment Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks: Reports of potential territory swaps and Trump’s mediation efforts bolstered risk appetite. A resolution could alleviate Eurozone energy and supply-chain pressures, supporting EUR/USD. Equity Market Stability: European stocks (e.g., Euro STOXX 50) pared losses, with sectors like utilities and healthcare outperforming. This resilience reduced demand for the USD as a safe haven. 4. Central Bank Dynamics The ECB is expected to cut rates further (market pricing in 3 cuts in 2025), while the Fed maintains a cautious "higher-for-longer" stance. However, softer PCE expectations may narrow this divergence, favoring EUR/USD. 5. Key Risks and Catalysts Today U.S. Retail Sales & Industrial Production: Forecasts suggest a 0.2% MoM decline in retail sales (first drop in 5 months) and slower industrial production growth. Weak data could amplify USD selling. Tariff Negotiation Updates: Any hints of tariff implementation timelines or retaliatory measures from the EU/China may reignite volatility. Final Sentiment Summary Short-Term Bias:  Cautiously Bullish for EUR/USD. Support Factors: Soft PCE expectations, delayed tariffs, and geopolitical optimism. Investors will monitor retail sales data and tariff rhetoric for intraday momentum shifts. A softer PCE print next week could solidify bullish sentiment, while tariff escalation remains the primary risks. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play. 🔹Currently price is sweeping Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High. A decent pullback is also expected if the Liq. is enough and market sentiment is aligning with the pullback (Requires market Fear/ Risk-Off). 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹Swing structures continued Bullish with 2 Bullish BOS yesterday (High Volatility). 🔹The current 15m Bullish structures confirms for me the 4H Bullish Swing continuation and we are targeting high. 🔹After the recent 15m Swing BOS, we expect a pullback. Current structure doesn’t have much clear demand zone (the 70% of the structure is a 4H Demand zone). 🔹Price expected to have a pullback to the recent demand identified (Not well positioned as it’s in premium) or to structure EQ (50%)/Discount to continue Bullish and target the Weak Swing High. 🔹I want to note that the 4H had swept Liq. above 30 Jan High which could initiate a decent pullback on price after that aggressive move up. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation of price to continue Bullish as long the Swing Low hold and pullbacks are contained within the structure.
by Amr-Sadek
AUD/USD - TP Smashed Clean. Called it, executed it, and now we’re here. Price respected my SMC setup perfectly—4H structure gave me the bias, 30M refined my entry, and price followed through like clockwork. Saw the inducement, waited for the CHoCH confirmation, and the order block tap was all I needed. Entry was smooth, exit was precise. This is what happens when you trust the process and put in the work daily. Another win locked in. Who’s keeping up? Let’s see if the market’s ready for my next move. #Forex #SmartMoneyConcepts #AUDUSD #PrecisionTrading #MarketMastery Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
1
GBP/JPY setting up for a swing-trade short?My core bias this year is for the Japanese yen to outperform, and for yen pairs such as GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY etc to suffer. We are currently within a countertrend bounce against a much larger bearish move on GBP/JPY, but a doji formed just beneath a resistance cluster on Thursday to suggest the bounce is pausing, if not correcting itself. The 1-hour chart shows that volumes were rising while prices fell from Thursday's high, and volumes were lower as they recouped some of those losses. Yet with GBP/JPY now trying to form a bearish outside candle on the 1-hour chart, perhaps a swing high has already formed. The near-term bias is bearish while prices remain beneath 192.50, and for prices to fall to at least the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio ~190.75. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Short
by CityIndex
USDD/JPY bulls eye 156A hot set of inflation figures from the US alongside risk-on outflows from then yen helped USD/JPY post its best daily gain of the year. While the daily chart shows Wednesday's high stalled at trend resistance, but the strong bullish trend on the 1-hour chart suggests its more likely we'll see an upside break of it than not. The 50-day SMA at 155.22 makes a potential interim target for bulls, a break above which brings the monthly pivot point near the 156 handle into focus. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Long
by CityIndex
Incoming 50% collapse to $70 for AirBnb“Airbnb a tech company and its founder and CEO Brian Chesky isn't shy about that.” source: hotelsmag.com It’s an online letting agent! A $86 billion one at that. Feels like WeWork Déjà vu all all over again. A landlord with a cool name and a website now becomes a tech company. AirBnb was always on my list for accommodation searches when travelling. Today a hotel is almost always my first choice, even if that is for a stay of up to 10 days. What changed? 1) Affordability. I draw the line when the cost of a mediocre “key-code” to enter AirBnb accommodation matches that of a 4 or 5 star hotel. I don’t know what hosts are thinking. One possibility is servicing overstretched mortgage costs. 2) Gentrification. Affordable housing has been swallowed up by landlords as they exchange from longterm to short term holiday lets in the pursuit of more money. The landlords can’t be blamed when interest rates have been so low, but the effect on city centres is evident. One city centre I visited a few months ago, the whole townhouse was AirBnb’d divided into several units. Depressing. I think we’re now on the verge of a swell of those Landlords selling up as it becomes clearer with each month there are easier ways to make money whilst not holding onto an overpriced asset. If I’m correct, the selling pressure will ultimately impact the business model, charging overpricd fees. Speaking of fees.. 3) Cleaning fees. Don’t get me started. Imagine checking out of a hotel “And your cleaning fee...” The technical analysis On the above weekly chart: 1) Price action and RSI support breakouts have printed. 2) Broken market structure. This is a perfect technical example of broken market structure confirming resistance from the last higher low. A trend reversal is now confirmed. 3) The Bear flag has confirmed. Past support confirms as strong rejection. Price action is forecast to strike $70 Is it possible price action continues to print upwards and onwards? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww
NASDAQ:ABNBShort
by without_worries
14
Potential Bear Flag in Energy ETFThe SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF has wavered for almost a year, and some traders may expect a push to the downside. The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since mid-November. December also saw a lower low versus September. That may reflect a bearish longer-term trend. Next, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “death cross” below the 200-day SMA in late 2024. Those two SMAs, plus the 100-day SMA, are close to each other on the chart. Could that long neutral period create potential for prices to start moving? Third, MACD is falling and the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA. Those patterns may reflect bearishness in the short term. Finally, the recent series of higher lows may be viewed as a bearish flag. If it resolves to the downside, December’s 52-week low of $82.75 could be viewed as the next logical support. Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above: SPDR Select Sector Energy ETF (XLE) 1-year: +5.07% 5-years: +64% 10-year: +18.82% (As of January 31, 2025) Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs") are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
AMEX:XLE
by TradeStation
Why GBPUSD will continue going upAs we can see Price respected the Demand level and changed directions Our CHoC was broken and price kept making new Higher highs and higher lows to confirm that buyers/bulls are in control of the Market and signifies an uptrend We have a new higher high that the price looks like it'll break through it and that will confirm the volume of the bulls is high, also our weak low shows how our Bears are inferior The best choice would be to wait for a breakout of the recent Higher high and place our buy entries after, as this would have confirmed buyers are in total control and would give us more winning opportunities If somehow the market breaks the Solid low then this invalidates bulls and show that bears are in control.
Long
by StarleXtheTrader
GBP/JPY Breakdown: Massive Short Opportunity or Bear Trap?Overview: GBP/JPY has been a strong focus, and for those following along, we’ve been anticipating short opportunities as the market structure continues to favor downside momentum. Recent price action has set up another potential short entry, aligning with our long-term bearish bias. Weekly Timeframe: Major Rejection & Momentum Shift • Double Top Formation: GBP/JPY formed a classic M pattern around 198.89, rejecting that level twice before reversing. • Break of Key Support: The critical support level at 189.94 has been tested multiple times, acting as a floor before it finally broke last week with strong momentum. • Volume Confirmation: The breakdown occurred with increased volume, signaling real selling pressure and further validating bearish sentiment. Daily Timeframe: Retracement & Liquidity Grab • Impulse Move Lower: After breaking support, GBP/JPY dropped aggressively, marking a fresh lower low. • Pullback to Trap Buyers: The market retraced back up, but this was more than just a normal correction—it was a liquidity grab. • Traders who went short too early had stop losses at key resistance levels, and price wicked up to stop them out before resuming downward. • Instead of a smooth retracement, we saw sharp moves up, which is a telltale sign of liquidity collection before continuation. H1 Timeframe: Entry & Trade Execution • Structure Shift: • Initially, price was making higher highs and higher lows within the pullback phase. • However, we broke that bullish structure, confirming the reversal. • Retest Confirmation: • Price tested the breakdown level, creating a strong entry opportunity for shorts. • Entry Execution: • First Entry: Placed a small short position as price retested. • Second Entry: Increased position size once the breakdown was confirmed with a bearish close. Key Invalidations & Targets ✅ Bearish Scenario (Primary Outlook): • As long as price stays below 192.32, shorts remain valid. • If momentum continues downward, targets include: • First target: 189.94 (previous key support, now resistance). • Next levels: 187.50, then possibly 185.00 if momentum follows through. ❌ Invalidation (Bullish Breakout Scenario): • If GBP/JPY pushes above 192.32, holds, and breaks 192.98, the bearish thesis is invalid. • In that case, we may see a continuation higher, forcing a cut on shorts and a reevaluation of market conditions. • Stop Loss: Set above 192.98 at 193.06 to protect against a breakout reversal. Conclusion: GBP/JPY remains in a high-probability short zone, with technical confirmations aligning on multiple timeframes. If price remains under key levels, we expect further downside, with liquidity already being grabbed from early sellers. However, as always, if price invalidates the setup by reclaiming resistance levels, risk management is key. 📉 Short bias remains intact unless 192.32 is broken and held. 🔹 If you found this breakdown useful, make sure to like, share, and let us know your thoughts. If you see an alternative setup, drop your analysis—always open to different perspectives! 🚀
Short
by BlueOceanFxAcademy
2