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TSLA: Last CHANCE to REACT! - D&W chartsTSLA shares are trying to react today, and this is something that could signal a recovery, which is understandable, given how much the price has fallen in recent weeks and how oversold the stock is at the moment. Since the last top in December, the stock has plummeted almost 30%, breaking all its medium-term supports, materializing a downtrend. I say the price is oversold because the RSI is at an extremely low level, and the last time we saw an RSI below 20, in December 2022, the stock actually recovered after confirming a bottom in the price. TSLA’s RSI analysis and comparison to December 2022: However, the trend is still downwards, and although there is the possibility of a recovery, it won't be easy to reverse the trend. Remember that pullbacks are different from reversals. For the price to reverse the downtrend, we would need to see HH/Hls again, as well as a break of the 21 EMA, which is clearly pointing downwards. What's more, TSLA's price is on the verge of triggering a Death Cross when the 50MA crosses the 200MA downwards, one of the most famous bear market signals. A continuation of the downtrend can be avoided if there is a strong and clear reaction as soon as possible, and now would be a good time, as the price has approached a support region on the weekly chart: We are close to the support line of a bearish channel. Last week's candle could be a possible Exhaustion Bar, but the price needs to react and reject the last bearish candle by breaking through its high at $217.80. Only then will we see a good reaction that could halt the long-term downtrend, or even reverse it. For now, until such a scenario materializes, any recovery could be just another Dead Cat Bounce. Remember that I’ll keep you updated on this, so consider supporting this idea if you liked it, and follow me for more analyses like this. All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
5
SPY: The Most Important Technical Turning Points (D&W analysis).The SPY is once again hitting a new all-time high today, with the market looking optimistic. As long as it continues to show the pattern of higher highs/higher lows, bullish sentiment will prevail. Last month, I made several warnings that we shouldn't try to guess the top, and that the trend is upwards. The only thing that could reverse the situation would be a clear reversal signal. The link to my last public study on SPY is below this analysis, as usual. For now, I still don't see any technical evidence suggesting a correction or a pullback, but we should pay attention to some key points, especially its medium-term support levels, because if the SPY loses them, the bullish momentum could become weaker. Despite leaving a gap below the price, today's candle is small, revealing a contained intraday movement. If this gap closes this week, it could be classified as an Exhaustion Gap, a technical piece of evidence that the trend is losing momentum. However, the most important key point for the SPY is the yellow area in the chart above. This point is the area of the previous all-time high at $479.98, and a secondary top at $477.55. In addition, we see the 21 EMA rising, and it will probably enter this area soon, forming a triple support level. A pullback to this triple support level is acceptable, and it's not a technical reason to believe in an immediate reversal; after all, pullbacks in an uptrend are buying opportunities most of the time. But if the SPY loses this point, the medium-term trend could reverse, in which case the next targets will be on the weekly chart. We can see that just below the yellow area, we have support around $466, a previous bottom, and a point near the 50-MA (red line), which is set up for the daily chart, even though we see the weekly chart. This makes the area around $466 the next area of support should SPY begin a sharper correction. Since SPY has materialized a Golden Cross pattern (when the 50-MA breaks through the 200-MA, the black line, upwards), we can say that the official trend is upwards, but it is important that SPY keeps prices above these support levels in order to maintain the long-term uptrend. For now, we have to be aware that the trend is upwards, and we don't see the SPY losing any support levels yet, so there are no signs of a correction, let alone a reversal in sight. We'll proceed very cautiously, paying attention to its key points. In the absence of a clear bearish reversal structure, the SPY should continue to rise, until it reaches $500, which, although not a technical resistance, is more of a psychological resistance, as we know that the market has a soft spot for round numbers. Of course, I’ll keep you updated on this, so consider supporting this idea if you liked the content, and follow me to keep in touch. What's more, keep in mind that the idea described above reflects my humble opinion. It is not investment advice, use it for educational purposes and to improve your own thesis about the market. All the best, Nathan.
AMEX:SPY
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
6
TSLA: Has finally reached its critical support (D & W analysis)!TSLA shares have corrected to the support level we identified in our last public analysis, in the vicinity of the green line at $230, between the 50ma and the 200ma. In fact, it looks like the 200ma is serving as our last support, since the price is bouncing right back after hitting this indicator. The link to my previous public analysis is below this post, as usual. Volume has fallen sharply and TSLA's shares are very weak, as it is the only one among the "magnificent 7" that is not showing any signs of recovery this week. In two weeks the company will release its earnings report, and this will be an important event, but until then, we don't see any technical signs suggesting a bottom. Yes, the price has reached an extremely important support point, but we need to see confirmation of a bottom signal to believe in a decent recovery. Despite the signs of weakness, the price is not in a downtrend yet, for that we need to see LHs/LLs. Now, let’s look at the weekly chart: From a technical point of view, the next resistance is around $300, the previous top. Can TSLA get there? In theory yes, but in practice we need to see a clear bottom signal, as mentioned in the analysis of the daily chart. You have to admit that if TSLA were going to react, now would be the perfect time, we just need confirmation. On the other hand, if the price loses the critical support point on the daily chart, nothing would prevent a sharper correction on the weekly chart, perhaps to its next support around $207, or even to the support line of its Descending Channel. This would frustrate the breakout of the previous resistance of this channel, characterizing a false breakout, a powerful bearish signal. If you ask my personal opinion, I wish to see TSLA making a bottom around this support area, as the Risk/Reward ratio for a long trade would be attractive, however, we see no confirmation yet, and there is no meaningful bullish reaction suggesting a possible recovery yet. I’ll keep you updated on this, so consider following me for more analysis like this, and support this idea if you liked it. All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
9
USDCAD Daily downtrend continuationAt this moment in time price is demonstrating weakness, however, need to take into consideration that it has just touched an unmitigated area of demand, to which it has reacted strongly, with that said, we could see a deeper pullback into the 1.3546 area of supply to make a run for 1.3045. Conversely, we've just mitigated an area of refined H4 Supply, causing the H4 to change the character and possibly go for a run at this reaction from the equilibrium point of Daily structure down to 1.03045.
Short
by GonzeeTrading
NIO: Important reaction at support level! But be careful - D & WNIO shares reached our first target of $9.22, set in our last public study, the link to which is below this analysis, as always. We now see a correction down to the 21 EMA, which is to be expected, given that it has just hit a target. In addition, we see a reaction in the price, which could be a bottoming signal if confirmed. Such a reaction makes sense, since the medium-term trend on the daily chart is bullish, and the reasons are simple: 1) The price has been making HH/HL since its last bottom on December 12; 2) The price is above the 21 EMA, which is rising. I said in my last analysis that swing trades with a focus on the medium term are technically plausible, and that's still true, but remember that all caution is needed, as the weekly chart is still in a downtrend, and this week's candlestick is a reminder of this. If the price closes below the average on the weekly chart, we could see another top signal, suggesting further bearish continuation for NIO shares. In any case, I see $7 as the main support point, both in the long and medium term. We see that NIO is trading around a critical point, near mid-term support levels and long-term resistance levels. Whichh one will prevail? It is too soon to tell, we need to see a clear breakout to confirm any thesis. I’ll keep you updated on this, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analysis, and support this idea, if it helped you. All the best, Nathan.
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
NVDA: Beware of these Support / Resistance Levels (H & D charts)NVDA shares are losing momentum after a powerful upward reaction this morning. It seems that as it approaches its resistance area, it is becoming difficult for NVDA to maintain its upward trajectory. We had a good reaction near the Fibonacci retracements, which, as we warned in our last public study, was our main area of support. Now the price is trying to recover, but there are still some challenges ahead. The link to our previous analysis is below this post, as usual. It's interesting to note that despite losing momentum, the price could still seek out the $487.61 region, a secondary resistance and previous top that can be seen on the hourly chart: At the moment, there is no clear sign of a bearish reversal, but we should remain vigilant as the price is finding it difficult to break through the resistance of its Ascending Channel, as evidenced by the purple lines. A correction down to the 21 EMA is plausible, but if the price loses this support, then we could see NVDA near the support of its channel again. So, in the short term, it's all about the Ascending Channel, and in which direction there will be a breakout, as well as the 21 EMA. In the medium term, we should focus on the Fibonacci retracements, and the resistance at $487. I must admit that I would like to see the price at $487 again, since that point has been a personal target for me since the first buy signal at $469: Ignition Bar + above the support of the ascending channel + breaking a pivot point + breaking the 21 ema on the 1h chart = Clear buy signal (to me, at least). However, depending on how the price reacts today, maybe the bullish thesis will be thwarted. I’ll keep you updated on this, so remember to like this idea, and follow me for more analysis like this. All the best, Nathan,
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
23
NIO: Breaking Through Important Resistance Levels - but beware!We see a strong bullish reaction in NIO's shares, which have been rising steadily since last week, when they approached their bottom at $7. Around $7, we see a region of multiple support, present since June, but which has suffered several attempts to be breached during November and December, without success. Now, the price has made a strong enough reaction to break through some important medium-term resistance points, such as the 21 EMA, and more recently, the previous top at $8.51. In doing so, NIO's shares are sending a clear message that the medium-term trend is now upwards, as it is operating above various supports, and breaking through previous resistances. In theory, the next resistances are NIO's next targets, such as $9.22, or even the gap open at $10.22. Remember, gaps act as magnets when the price reverses a trend. Although this is a reading for the medium term, it's important to point out that NIO shares still face some problems in the long term, as seen in the weekly chart below: Clearly, the area around $7 is the most important support here too, but since November 2021, the price has been in a persistent downtrend. We don't see rising tops and bottoms, and the 21 EMA could still be a resistance point, although the price is above it this week. So, while buying with a focus on the medium term is technically plausible, caution is advised as the weekly chart is still in a downtrend. I'll keep you updated on this, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses, and if you liked the post, remember to support the idea. All the best, Nathan.
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
SPY: Don’t “Guess” the Top.We can learn a very interesting lesson by looking at the SPY chart. Anyone who tries to guess the next top or bottom is a gambler, not a trader, and as someone who has gambled a lot in the past, this rally brings back some memories. It's very easy for someone to see such an explosive movement and think: "It's already gone up a lot, it's going to have to come down soon". It's very easy to look for clues in other indicators, for example, and get excited when you see the RSI exploding close to 70. Looking for clues that reinforce a pre-existing belief is common among individuals corrupted by the "confirmation bias", which is something else, and would be content for a future article. Still talking about the RSI, it's important to mention that the RSI was already at 70 when the price was at $450. Since then it has risen by more than $20 (approximately 5%), and there is no sign of a top yet. Far from being a criticism of such an efficient indicator, this is just evidence that the use of indicators should be aligned with what we see on the chart. Top or bottom signals are confirmed when we see a clear breakout from a notorious reversal pattern. As we can see from the SPY chart below, just one or two bearish patterns, even when appears close to clear resistance, is not enough. There needs to be confirmation of a good breakout. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why so many are rushing to sell a possible top, even without confirmation. By waiting for confirmation, you sacrifice part of your profits, and amateurs hate that. To feel like a pro, you have to feel the satisfaction of buying the bottom and selling the top, all the time. Which is ironic, because that's not the focus of a professional. A real trader seeks long-term consistency. Speaking for myself, as far as I can see it's a strong rally in the SPY, and the next resistance is the all-time high at $479.98. So far, there is no clear reversal pattern for me, although I personally would like to see a correction to a support point. What if the SPY made a bearish candlestick pattern today? Just as we see on November 9, 15 and 29, and on December 6, a top signal is plausible, but we need to wait for confirmation via a breakout. Otherwise, it would just be another bear trap. Another thing I like to do is wait for a clear bearish reversal structure to appear on shorter time frames, such as the hourly chart. Uptrends are characterized by rising tops and bottoms, and the reverse applies to downtrends. When a stock is in a clear uptrend, but the hourly chart suddenly makes a lower top and bottom, it's a warning sign. If such a reversal occurs near a resistance area, all the better, as was the case with NVDA at the end of last month. One of the most overlooked principles of Dow Theory is the number 6: "Trends Persist Until a Clear Reversal Occurs". When Charles Dow, founder of the Dow Jones index and the Wall Street Journal, began working on the principles more than a century ago, he never imagined that in the 21st century there would still be traders who anticipate and don't wait for confirmation (again, I was among these gamblers in the past). Therefore, trading reversals is interesting and can be very profitable, but you need to base your decisions on technical reasons. I shared how I like to trade reversals, but there are more strategies that you can use. Feel free to share yours. That's the difference between a gambler and a trader. Moreover, remember to follow me for more content like this, and support this idea if you liked it! All the best, Nathan.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
9
TSLA: An Intense Breakout is About to Occur!TSLA shares are trading in a Trap Zone, the area between the 21 EMA, which serves as the main support, and the resistance at $246.70, which was already mentioned in my last public analysis, the link to which is below this post. This area between the 21 EMA and resistance is called the Trap Zone because as long as there is no real breakout from support or resistance, we could see several false signals and erratic, meaningless movement within the area. The 21 EMA is slowly rising, squeezing the price against resistance at $246, and sooner or later, we will see a breakout in some direction. There's no way of knowing in which direction the breakout will occur - remember real trading is reactive, not predictive. In some cases it is possible to look for clues in an indicator such as the RSI, and look for a divergence or an Advanced Breakout (which is not the case here). Since our last study, the price has retested the $246 area, reinforcing our main idea that this is indeed the main resistance for TSLA shares in the medium term. Only if the price breaks through this region will we see a real sign of recovery, which would represent a continuation of the upward trend. Meanwhile, we see that the price is trading dangerously close to the 21 EMA. If the average is lost, then TSLA could trigger a new bearish move, perhaps looking to fill the gap opened at $225.40. Such a bearish move seen today is definitely suspicious, while the indices and almost all of the "magnificent 7" are rising. I wonder how long such a divergence between TSLA and the rest of the market will persist. TSLA shares are falling this week, just as we approach the main long-term resistance at the top of its Descending Channel. The 21 EMA is also serving as support on this timeframe, which also reinforces our thesis that this area is a key support point, which could trigger a sharper correction if lost. For the time being, as long as there is no clear break from its Trap Zone, TSLA's shares are bound to move erratically. To avoid a bearish scenario, now would be the best time to see a reaction. How the price behaves over the next few days will be crucial to what lies ahead in the medium and long term. I'll keep you updated on this, so remember to like this post, and follow me for more analysis like this. Best regards, Nathan.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
18
SPX: An Unstoppable Rally? Analysis of the D & W charts.The SPX index is still trading within an area of resistance, which we identified together in our latest study, the link to which is available just below this post. Although we have almost reached the next resistance at 4.607, the impression the index gives us is of a sideways correction. Since November 22, the SPX has been trading within our resistance zone (red area), without triggering any top signals, but without managing to continue the insane bullish rally either. Despite the recent stabilization in the price, we don't see any significant top signals, or any kind of bearish reaction that could trigger a correction in the near future. But even if the index does correct, there are several support points that could hold the price, such as the 21 EMA, the gap open at 4.421, or even Fibonacci retracements as shown below. It's worth noting how close the first retracement of 38.2% is to the gap. A correction up to one of these points would not pose any danger to the uptrend, so any pullback could become a buying opportunity. Remember, corrections are different from reversals. If there's no sign of a correction at the moment, it's even less clear that there's any chart structure indicating a reversal. However, given the weekly chart, I understand the appeal that a correction would have: The index has risen for five consecutive weeks, and the rally has been very intense. A pullback would be an acceptable and healthy move, and the 21 EMA would serve as a support point here too. It's worth noting that the average is at 4.402 at the moment, very close to the first Fibonacci retracement mentioned above and the last open gap. For now, let's keep an eye on how the index reacts within its resistance zone over the next few days. Any sign of a top could trigger a medium-term correction, and in my view, if SPX closes below our resistance area again, we could finally see a correction. However, I agree that such movement is quite unlikely, at least right now. As I stated in our last analysis: "December is another good month for stocks, going up 1.50%, on average, and it ends up being a positive month 75% of the time." I'll keep you updated, so remember to follow me for more analysis like this, and support the idea if you like it. All the best, Natthan.
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
TSLA: A Powerful Turnaround is About to Happen (D & W analysis)!Since our last study, we have observed that TSLA shares are trying to resume the medium-term uptrend by attempting to break through the last top at $246.70. The problem is that the price failed to close above this resistance on the daily chart, so the upward movement failed to materialize. The link to my previous public analysis is below this post, as usual. On the other hand, the bears failed to take the price below the support at $226.37, the previous top that should act as future support. TSLA shares would only reverse the bullish sentiment if they made a lower bottom than the previous one, breaking through the last support at $226.37. For now, it looks like the 21 EMA is serving as a very good support point. So, if you ask me, the trend is still up, as the price movement pattern is still one of higher highs/higher lows, trading above the moving average, even if it hasn't officially broken through the last top at $246.70 (and closing above it). And in fact, this is an interesting point, as confirmation of a bottom signal in the vicinity of the 21 EMA could trigger the next bullish rally - and the price is reacting well so far, but there is no confirmation yet. The bearish reversal point would be $226. The weekly chart shows how critical the moment is for TSLA shares: The price has just hit the resistance of its Descending Channel for the fifth time, and as usual failed to break through it. That's why if the price loses the $226 area, we could see a continuation down to the support line of this channel, well below $200. But what if the price reacts and breaks through the resistance to the upside? Then we'll have something new, which in my opinion would be a technical turning point that would take the price to the next resistance on the weekly chart, around $300. There are opportunities in the medium term, but the price needs to react and confirm a breakout of one of its key points, either resistance or support, to confirm a real reversal. I'll keep you updated, so remember to follow me and support this idea if you find it interesting. Remember, we can't predict the future. Real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's pay attention to the key points mentioned in this analysis. Best regards, Nathan.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
NVDA: A Dangerous Turning Point (D and H charts).In our last analysis, we warned of a possible correction in NVDA's shares, right on the day they made a new all-time high above $500. The link to my latest public analysis of NVDA is below this post. What's most interesting is that NVDA's shares fell just to hit our target at $476.09, which we set in our last analysis, and apparently, it's working so far. In addition, the $476.09 is very close to the 21 EMA on the daily chart as well, reinforcing this support area. In the two days following my analysis, NVDA confirmed a bearish reversal pattern by triggering a bearish pivot on the hourly chart (as evidenced by the image below). A bearish pivot is a lower high than the previous one, followed by the breakout of the last bottom. As shown in the chart above, NVDA shares were on a rally, making rising tops and bottoms, surfing above the 21 EMA, until on November 22, a bearish pivot was confirmed. The share price quickly fell to our target which is its first support point, but despite being in a good place for a bottom pattern to form, there is still no reaction suggesting such an event. What if NVDA shares don't react at this support? From a technical point of view, it could look for its next support levels, such as one of the Fibonacci retracements as shown below: For now, let's stay tuned, as NVDA is once again in a critical price zone, and we will soon have a clear answer as to whether there will be a reversal, or a continuation of the short-term bearish sentiment. In any case, I'll keep you updated, so remember to follow me for more analysis like this, and support this idea if you like it. All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
TSLA: The Most Important Chart Structures! (D & W charts).TSLA shares are up today, reacting above the 21 EMA seen on the daily chart, which, by the way, is still pointing upwards. What's more, it hasn't managed to lose support at $226, which we nailed in our last public study (the link to my previous TSLA analysis is below this post). Given the technical evidence described above, TSLA maintains bullish sentiment in the medium term, as it has failed to trigger a bearish reversal structure by losing its key support levels. However, it has not yet broken through the previous top of $246.70 so that it could make a higher high again, resuming the pattern of higher highs/higher lows that makes up an uptrend. As mentioned above, only if TSLA loses the $226 area would this trigger a bearish technical reversal pattern on the daily chart, as we would see it making a lower low after failing to break through the previous top of $246 - a classic bearish pivot point. For now, the situation seems to be under control. Now let's take a look at the weekly chart: Here we see why it is so important for TSLA to maintain the bullish sentiment. TSLA’s price is still inside a Descending Channel, which could be part of a huge Bullish Flag pattern, but it must confirm an upwards breakout so it can turn the long-term sentiment bullish again. TSLA is almost there and if it breaks this channel, it could easily look for the next resistance around $300 again. So far, there is no apparent bearish reaction suggesting a top or a correction to the support line of this channel – in fact, TSLA is finally above the 21 ema on the weekly chart again. I’ll keep you posted on this, so remember to follow me and support this idea, if you liked it! Best regards, Nathan.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
6
SPX: Reached a Resistance After an Insane Rally!The SPX has reached a critical resistance area. As observed on the daily chart above, the index hit the 4,541-resistance line (black line), which was a previous top level from September. This resistance line is quite close to another key point, the 4,567, an open gap since August (yellow line), making this whole area a zone of resistance. Although the SPX showed some weakness today, there is no sign of a top nearby, and the index would have to make a serious bearish reaction in order to reject the bullish sentiment. In my opinion, as the index has just hit a resistance area after a relentless rally since October 30 (last bottom), a pullback would be healthy. In this scenario, I see it seeking the gap below the price around 4,421, near the 21 ema. However, it must make a decent top signal to convince me that it will correct. What if the SPX breaks its resistance area? In theory, it would resume the bull trend seen on the weekly chart. Its next technical resistance is the 4,607, and above this key point, we see the all-time high at 4,818, near the purple trend line that connects the tops of its Ascending Channel (which is another bullish chart structure). Therefore, given the multiple chart structures observed in this analysis, we conclude that the SPX is in a mid/long-term uptrend, however, a mid-term pullback would be acceptable now, as it just reached a critical resistance area – the only thing missing is a clear top signal. Keep in mind that, statistically speaking, November is the greenest month, with an average return of 1.71% (since 1950). December is another good month for stocks, going up 1.50%, on average, and it ends up being a positive month 75% of the time. I’ll keep you updated on this, so remember to follow me if you liked the content. All the best, Nathan.
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
TSLA: It Has Just Reached a Major Turning Point (D and W charts)TSLA shares are down today, showing a bearish reaction right after closing their gap at $242.08, which is acting as a resistance level, as expected. The medium-term trend is up, as TSLA is recording higher highs/lows since bottoming out on October 31 at $194. In addition, it recently triggered an Inverse Head and Shoulders chart pattern after breaking through the $226 area, the neckline of this pattern, which is another bullish reversal chart structure. An IH&S pattern is nothing more or less than a bearish pivot point followed by a bullish pivot point (a lower H/L followed by a higher H/L). Now, if TSLA really corrects, it could look for its next support levels, such as the $226 mentioned above, which is close to the 21 ema on the daily chart and close to a previous gap as well ($225.40). Despite today's bearish reaction, this top signal has not yet been technically triggered. Could TSLA reverse and thwart this bullish sentiment? Yes, but it would need to trigger a clear bearish reversal structure (there isn't one so far) or lose the $206 again, because that key point was a previous bottom, and TSLA would make a new lower low if it lost it. On the weekly chart, we see that TSLA is reacting around a clear support area (yellow line), but is still within a Descending Channel, as evidenced by the purple lines. Therefore, for the long term to resume its bullish sentiment, it must break out of this channel to the upside. In any case, despite the bearish reaction and a possible pullback, medium-term sentiment is bullish and, in theory, TSLA can still seek higher levels. We'll be monitoring its key points closely. I'll keep you updated on this, so remember to follow me for more analysis like this.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
18
EURUSD Intra-Day Setup June 16 '23Multi-timeframe Analysis This intra-day move is guided by 3M, M, W, and Daily structures analysis. Daily Outlook (D) 6/15/23 Daily structure has broken to the upside to support the Weekly Timeframe's narrative in forming a right shoulder to the key weekly areas identified (Weekly Supply and imbalance) Expectation: Continue the uptrend until it reaches weekly key areas identified and when price does, we are to expect a break of D/H4 structures to the downside. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Outlook (W) 6/15/23 Still making higher highs and lower highs Last week of May just made the last higher low @ Weekly fib 78.6 level Expectation: IF Continues uptrend: reach last HH level or 1.1100 and eventually 1.1250 (27 ext) If not: Price reactions from levels below: 1) 0.0865 H&S Weekly line and does a downtrend from there 2) Weekly IMB and OB with BOS down. INVALIDATION POINT: 1.1092 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Monthly Outlook (M) 6/15/23: BIG REACTION from Monthly Fib 618 level that it ENGULFED last month's candle to the downside Expectation: Bear trend commencement with supporting price action coming from the weekly and daily structures. If not, we continue to be bulls until weekly structure supports an uptrend above Key price indicated in the weekly timeframe. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yearly Outlook (3M+) 6/15/23: Still in a clear downtrend making LL's and LH's HOWEVER, ***Q4 of '22 engulfed Q3. This may be the last HL in decades. ***Price seems to respect 1.1050/1150 3M key zone. This area is also a mitigation of the 3M+ structural imbalance created in '01 3M+ Expectation: Due to price action and candle formations, 0.9536 may be the last Higher Low to be made and the next 10 years will be an uptrend. If not, the Monthly and weekly will be trending down in key areas identified until 0.9536 is breached and once that is done, it will trend down further. Next target below (if price goes down) 0.8773 If not: Price will breach 1.1091 and could further potentially breach until 1.1200 - 1.2300
Long
by RSC_FX