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WC1202 EURUSD Outlook: Waiting for reversal to position LONGPrice is at a key zone atm. Markups and notes on the chart but essentially I am waiting for price to signal for a long entry -- potentially at the low of previous month or at the H4 OB / unmitigated demand area within the key zone (blue highlight). The 50% of the H4 OB is in confluence with the 27ext. This area is also a 50's level. Either way, I am looking to see price tap either and rocket up. If price doesn't want to further go down, and my bias is wrong, we are just going to wait for a break & retest of the 0700 level and hold to the upside @1.1200 area
Long
by RSC_FX
SPX: This Channel Might Change the Trend.• SPX is inside a Descending Channel, as seen in the 1h chart; • Despite the bearish momentum in the 1h chart, the trend is still bullish in the daily chart, as the SPX is still doing higher highs/lows and it is above the 21 ema; • However, if it loses the 21 ema, or does a downwards breakout from this channel, then the bullish bias might reverse in the daily chart (mid-term trend); • On the other hand, the index would have to do a clear upwards breakout from this channel in order to materialize a bullish continuation pattern; • This bullish scenario would take us to 4,218, our next target, and an open gap from August last year; • For now, let’s pay attention on how the index will react inside this channel. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
3
TSLA: Bear Trap.• The rally persists on TSLA, and today, it almost rejected completely last week’s Evening Doji Star candlestick pattern; • In order to reject this bearish pattern / top sign, TSLA has to break $214 – today it hit $213.98 - and in this case, TSLA would trigger a Bear Trap (a complete rejection of the previous bearish sign after triggering it); • We are almost there, and TSLA still could break it – but it must not take too long, otherwise, the market may see a possible Double Top in this area; • What could make TSLA correct from here? If it loses the purple trend line seen in the 1h chart. Only then the bullish bias will get weaker; • So far, there’s top sign, and no clear bearish structure on TSLA, but I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
23
WC0213 NZDCAD Outlook: M-W LongMTF Analysis Monthly TF perspective Pattern: Inverted Head & Shoulders -Right shoulder forming at the Low of previous Month January. Price is also at the previous week's level. -Looking at the next 3 months might be LONG til pattern's completed. Weekly TF perspective - My bias for Weekly Fibonacci retracement level for violent push upward is at 38.2 -- this retracement level also coincides with the downtrend Daily TF Fib 27 ext level. - Many confluence at the 00 levels on H4 and H1 OB's and wick on wick area. - .8350 is in confluence with the weekly key level Daily TF - .0875 / quarter level coincides with Daily Fib's 27 ext Bias: -Price will reach .8400 and will do a stop hunt until the 50's (.8350) before going up. -Looking at the next 3 months might be LONG til pattern's completed.
Long
by RSC_FX
2
TSLA: Another Rally?• TSLA broke our key resistance at $200, indicating that this rally might persist a little longer; • Now, our previous resistance at $200 becomes a new support level for TSLA; • Now TSLA is way above the support at $182.50 and the 21 ema. This could indicate that it is overbought, but it won’t correct unless if it does a clear top sign, a so far, there’s none; • The next technical resistance on TSLA is the $237, which is around the 61.8% retracement in the weekly chart; • There’s a possibility it’ll find a resistance at the 50% retracement as well, but in order to do that, TSLA would have to do a top sign as soon as possible; • I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
9
UPDATE: Week Commencing Feb 6 GBPJPY Outlook: Still long UPDATE: WC0206 GBPJPY Outlook: Still long until DTF LL is broken MTF Analysis Check annotations in the anchored notes for M-W-D-H4-H1 analysis. I've updated GJ's outlook for this week from the last one published in January -- specifically the Weekly Anchored Note Weekly Timeframe Outlook Sun,1/22/23 - Bearish downtrend UPDATE: Mon, 2/6/23 1. WC 30 Jan weekly candle ended up being a lower high. A 120 pip rejection wick from December's low. 2. There is a weekly and monthly imbalance that is coinciding with - December's 50% level (almost) - January's high - Previous week's high - This is supported by the 200 EMA (Daily TF) as it will be tapping it / be under it. Weekly BIAS: 1. Price is bullish until it reaches/ taps #2's confluence areas. 2. Once it taps #2 conf areas, it will melt until it reaches January's low (which is also coinciding with the last Daily TF lower low) -- price will tap this daily and monthly conf area and then it will rocket and resume the bullish trend that it has been having. ON THE FLIP SIDE. 1. The last low of the Daily TF. 155.39 X January low -- if price pierces that level and continues all the way down then it may just melt until the next monthly key level which is around 150.75 2. It may just continue the uptrend all the way at least to the M&W trendline FUNDAMENTAL HIGH IMPACT NEWS FOR GJ FEB AND MARCH Date Country & Event 2023, February 07, 08:01 (United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 2023, February 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU 2023, February 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance 2023, February 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) GDP MoM 2023, February 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Employment Change 2023, February 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change 2023, February 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate 2023, February 15, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY 2023, February 16, 07:50 (Japan) Balance of Trade 2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY 2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM 2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM 2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY 2023, February 21, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI 2023, February 21, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI 2023, February 24, 08:01 (United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence 2023, March 01, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI 2023, March 02, 13:00 (Japan) Consumer Confidence 2023, March 03, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI 2023, March 07, 08:01 (United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 2023, March 10, 11:00 (Japan) BoJ Interest Rate Decision 2023, March 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU 2023, March 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) GDP MoM 2023, March 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance 2023, March 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate 2023, March 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change 2023, March 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Employment Change 2023, March 16, 07:50 (Japan) Balance of Trade 2023, March 22, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY 2023, March 23, 20:00 (United Kingdom) BoE Interest Rate Decision 2023, March 24, 07:30 (Japan) Inflation Rate YoY 2023, March 24, 08:01 (United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence 2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM 2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY 2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM 2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY 2023, March 24, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI 2023, March 24, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI
Long
by RSC_FX
1
SPX: Poised to Reverse the Long-Term Bear Trend.• The SPX broke the key resistance we mentioned yesterday, the 4,100, indicating a continuation of the bull trend (the link to my previous analysis is below this post, as usual); • What’s more, if the index remains above the 4,100 in the weekly chart, it would trigger the first bullish pivot point since the beginning of the bear market; • Since the index broke a key resistance, and so far, it is not doing any bearish sign, the next technical target is the gap at 4,218; • If the index does a clear bearish structure, closing under the 4,100 again, then this might be a top sign, however, there’s no evidence pointing to that direction yet; • The trend is still bullish in the short/mid-term. I’ll keep you updated on this, as usual. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
SPX: This Could Change Everything. 👀• The SPX successfully rejected the Below the Stomach candlestick pattern from yesterday, and it failed in breaking the support at 4,015; • This is a sign of strength, and makes a correction to the 21 ema less likely; • The trend is still bullish, as it is still doing higher highs/lows, above the 21 ema (D), and there’s no clear reversal sign on it yet; • Although the SPX rejected the Below the Stomach from yesterday, it has yet to break the resistance at 4,100; • The 4,100 is a bullish pivot point, as seen in the weekly chart, and would be the first one since the bear market started in January 2022 - this could change everything and put an end on this bear market. The index already did an upwards breakout from the Descending Channel seen in the W chart; • For now, the key points are 4,100 and 4,015. I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
3
TSLA: Is This a Top Sign? Only if it Does This. 🤔• TSLA is still in a very strong bull trend, despite the correction this morning; • In the 1h chart, TSLA is still doing higher highs/lows, trading above the 21 ema; • As long as TSLA remains in a bull trend in the 1h chart, hardly it would trigger a sharper pullback in the daily chart; • The problem is that in the daily chart, TSLA failed in breaking the resistance at $182.50; • Even if TSLA loses the 21 ema in the 1h chart, and triggers a sharper correction in the daily chart, TSLA still has the 21 ema (D) as a mid-term support level; • In the daily chart, the 21 ema is near the gap area at $146, making this a dual-support area; • For now, let’s pay attention to the 21 ema in the 1h chart, and on how it’ll react now that it is almost at the resistance area around $182.50. I’ll keep you updated on this, as usual. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
SPX: A Dangerous Resistance. 👀• The SPX is correcting today, back to its 21 ema in the 1h chart, as usual; • In the daily chart, there’s still some upside left, as we have yet to retest the 4,100 area, but the index is quite far from its 21 ema in this time frame; • If it loses the 21 ema in the 1h chart, or does a clear bearish structure, then it might correct to the 21 ema in the daily chart, around the 3,800; • As long as the trend remains bullish in the 1h chart, hardly a sharper correction will materialize; • Therefore, let’s pay attention to the 21 ema (1h), and on how the index will react from here, as it is near the resistance at 4,100; • So far, no clear top sign. I’ll keep you updated on this, as usual. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
11
TSLA: Get Ready. 👀• It seems TSLA wants to correct from here. If it loses the dual-support made by the 21 ema + purple trend line in the 1h chart, we might expect a pullback to the 21 ema in the daily chart, at least; • The most important support level is the $123. Only if TSLA loses this key point it would resume the bear trend seen in the daily chart, and in this scenario, the $100 area might be our next stop; • What’s more, the $123 is around the 50% Fibonacci’s Retracement in the 1h chart; • TSLA will report earnings today, and in order to maintain the bullish bias it is important to stay above the 21 ema in the daily chart, despite any short-term correction due to volatility; • In addition, to confirm a true bullish sign, it has to break the purple trend line seen in the daily chart, connecting the previous top levels. If TSLA fails in doing so, and triggers a top sign under this line, the situation might get ugly (again); • I’ll keep you updated on this, as usual. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
16
SPX: Imminent Crash! Next Key Points to Watch.• The SPX reversed the short-term bull trend, as it lost our 21 ema in the 1h chart, failing in breaking the previous top (it did a Double Top chart pattern around the 4k); • In addition, it lost the support we mentioned yesterday, at 3,950, indicating a sharp correction – maybe even an overreaction; • Either way, the 3,950 is a new resistance on SPX, according to the Principle of Polarity; • Now, it seems the index is heading to the 21 ema in the daily chart, as I mentioned yesterday (link to my previous public analysis is below this post, as usual); • What’s more, it triggered our Shooting Star candlestick pattern, which reinforces the bearish sentiment, at least for now; • Let’s pay attention on how it’ll react around the 21 ema in the daily chart. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
6
TSLA: BULL TRAP? Pay Attention to the Most Important Support!• TSLA crashed yesterday, and it seems it wants to resume the bear trend, making the previous rally a bull trap; • Today, TSLA is trying to lose the 21 ema in the 1h chart (pre market), and if that’s the case, we can expect more drop ahead; • What’s more, if it loses the 21 ema in the 1h chart, it’ll lose yesterday’s low at the same time, triggering a Dark Cloud Cover pattern in the daily chart; • The area at $123 is the next technical support level in the 1h chart: 1) previous top level; 2) 38.2% Fibonacci’s Retracement; 3) Gap level; • Therefore, in my view, the $123 area is the most important support level. If TSLA loses it, the bearish momentum will persist, and it could easily seek the $100 again; • In order to frustrate this bearish thesis, it must stay above the $123, and do a very good (bullish) reaction; • I’ll keep you updated on this everyday, as usual. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
9
SPX: Flying High! Next target + Trend analysis. 🤓• The SPX is in a short-term bull trend, as seen in the 1h chart, and only if it loses the 21 ema we would see a correction ahead; • In theory, it wants to hit the next resistance level, at 4,053, and as long as it stays above the 21 ema, this is the most likely scenario; • This reinforces our previous reading on this, as mentioned in our previous study from yesterday (link below this post); • If it loses the 21 ema, the next stop would be the 3,950 area. • In the daily chart, SPX did a top sign yesterday, a Shooting Star candlestick pattern. However, this pattern wasn’t triggered yet; • According to Bulkowski’s studies, a Shooting Star works as a bearish reversal 59% of the time, which is not that great; • Either way, SPX is still trading above its support levels, and even if it corrects in the daily chart, the 21 ema is there to hold the price as well; • As usual, I’ll keep you updated on this every day. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
SPX: These are the KEY SUPPORT/RESISTANCE levels to watch. ⚠️• The index is in a bull trend, doing higher highs/lows; • It seems it wants to correct today. If that’s the case, the next support level is at the 21 ema in the hourly chart; • The 3,950 is another key point, and if the SPX loses it, we would see a sharper correction in the daily chart; • In the daily chart, there’s a dual-support level around the 21 ema + 3,889; • So far, there’s no clear bearish reversal structure, but the 4k seems to be a strong psychological key point. I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
1
TSLA: Trying to break a KEY RESISTANCE! Time to fly? 🚀• TSLA is trying to break the $123 area. If it confirms, this could trigger a rally to higher levels; • Remember, a rally doesn’t mean bullish reversal. It could be, but in this case, it is too soon to tell; • TSLA is breaking free from our Trap Zone, which we described in more details on our previous study on TSLA (link below this post); • This breakout is important, as TSLA is in a congestion since Jan 09, as seen on the chart above; • Only if TSLA does a downwards breakout, losing the support at 38.2% retracement, we would see a continuation of the bear trend; • For now, let’s pay attention to these key points. I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
5
AAPL: Next KEY SUPPORT/RESISTANCE levels to watch from here. 👀• Everything is going as planned on AAPL, since our last study on it (link below this post); • AAPL is heading to our target around the $137 - $138 area, which we set last week, and there’s no top sign on it yet; • Even if AAPL corrects, in order for it to do a clear top sign would be important to lose the 38.2% retracement again, along with the 21 ema – this could frustrate the bullish thesis; • However, as long as AAPL stays above these key points, the bullish bias will persist, and our first target is still the $137 - $138 area. There’s no technical reason to change it; • There’s an Ascending Wedge in the 1h chart, and it seems AAPL wants to break it upwards, which would reinforce the bullish thesis; • Today, it is at $135 pre-market. I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
4