It's Time To Reassess Our Previous Bitcoin SynopsisTraders,
This recent drop in Bitcoin price has caught many traders (including myself) off-guard. Unfortunately, we cannot always get it right and when we do get it wrong, it is important that we drop any preconceived ideas we hold and honestly re-evaluate potential price action. So, that's what we are doing in today's video. We are only going to look at Bitcoin, what it's doing now, what it has to do to remain bullish, and what might happen should we remain bearish.
Mtgox
Mt. Gox Repayment Plan Brings BTC to 125-Day SMA's OpportunityMt. Gox, which once accounted for roughly 70% of the world's bitcoin trading, was hacked multiple times between 2011 and 2014 and thousands of bitcoins went missing, setting off a long process of customers trying to get their crypto or money back. The exchange declared bankruptcy in 2014.
The long-awaited distribution of Mt. Gox customer funds comes after years of delays. However, Rehabilitation Trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi stated that preparations for these repayments are well underway, ensuring all necessary safety measures are in place before the distribution commences.
The correction in BTC price extended on June 24 due to bearish sentiment arising from defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox’s plan to return over 140,000 BTC to victims of a 2014 hack, with repayments set to begin in July.
More than $9.4 billion worth of Bitcoin is owed to approximately 127,000 creditors of Mt. Gox, who have been waiting for over ten years to recover their funds. Since Bitcoin’s price has risen more than 8,000% since 2014, this could introduce significant selling pressure for BTC. Some of these investors, who may have millions in profits, may decide to cash in at current rates.
Meanwhile, in technical terms BTC just dropped to it's significant 3-months support level that is corresponds also with 125-Day SMA.
BTC has been last seen at 125-day SMA 9 months ago only, in mid-October 2023, near $ 28000 level.
In that time SMA support helped to deliver BTC up roughly +160%, less than in a half-a-year.
Technical graph indicates also on huge oversold area for RSI indicator, that just turned to one of its lowest readings over the past 12 months.
BITCOIN CRASH TO 54.7K MINIMUM MT. GOX DUMP!!!Hello as you can see we have 5 waves up and an abc correction. we are working on the C wave and i expect it to hit 54.7k because that is the 1.1 extension fib of wave a measured from wave b (be careful tho as wave C can go to 1.618 which would be 44k i dont see that happening this time tho as we still need to make a wave 5 on the super large time frame), as well as having a FVG that needs filled there, as well as being the base of the channel we are in. It is a triple confluence.
If you look at RSI we have a bearish divergence as well.
The two bottom indicators i am using are also showing to be in the middle of a wave right now. that would be the C wave on the large time frame. we will be making the 5th wave down on the lower time frame which on the lower time frame of that will be a 5 wave impulse move because we are in a downtrend.
Also, Mt. Gox, an old exchange that went down like 12 years ago is starting to repay their creditors in July, which is now, so those people are sitting on like 14000% profit and are going to cash out and dump hard. it is a total of like 18 billion.
This is a negative outlook but its just what the data show. when the data show bullish then i will be bullish but there is just so many things right at this moment ab to crash btc so just hold on tight and open a short.
i have one open from 63.2k and a target of 54.7k. Lets see if it hits.
$61,357 is the 2021 highest monthly candle closeMaintaining this on a closing basis for JUNE & JULY
is essential to ensure we haven't prematurely topped out
we did have some topping signals
namely the #bitcoin ETF approval and going live
and Andrew Tate destroying the #Solana network :)
It would not be entirely disastrous in BTC ends the calendar year around 50k but it would actually give fuel for a full 4 year cycle
I am still leaning into this being a Bear Trap
And a MASSIVE #Altcoin shakeout.
and the #MTGOX distribution not having much effect
(remember they got hacked for 700,000 coins and only have 140k to reimburse )
$BTC may draw something like this?#bitcoin #btc price has been in correction (or consolidation?) since march's top. There're still notable liquidations at 71 - 75K #usd zone. The lower boxes are there the strong resistance zones. In this scenario i may expect #btcusd price to retreat to daily EMA200 UNLESS #btcusdt breaks out 75K zone, so this is the invalidation.
Not financial advice.
Mt. Gox Reportedly Starts Repaying Some Creditors Via PayPalMt. Gox appears to have started repaying some creditors after the defunct bitcoin exchange’s trustee said last month that it would repay creditors in cash shortly.
In a Reddit thread, several users — who appeared to be creditors of the defunct bitcoin exchange — said that they received their Mt. Gox payments through PayPal today.
“I just got paid,” one user named Free-End2543 wrote, attaching a screenshot of an emailed notification from PayPal.
“I just got my initial payment via Paypal!! I was sure it was a phishing attempt on my email, but nope legit money in JPY,” another user named rpostwvu said, with several others posting similar messages on the social media platform.
One user from a Telegram group chat titled “MtGoxCreditors” confirmed with The Block that they received a Japanese yen-denominated payment — dated Dec. 25 — from the Mt. Gox trustee on PayPal.
Mt. Gox’s rehabilitation trustee did not immediately respond to The Block’s request for comment.
The reported repayments come after the exchange, which collapsed in 2014, said last month in an email to creditors that the rehabilitation trustee is “making efforts to commence repayments in cash within the 2023 calendar year.” Repayments, however, would likely “continue into 2024” given the large number of rehabilitation creditors, the trustee said.
In September, Mt. Gox extended the deadline for rehabilitation creditor repayments from Oct. 31, 2023, to Oct. 31, 2024.
Launched in 2010, the Tokyo-based platform gained popularity and became the largest bitcoin exchange by 2013, servicing 70% of all bitcoin trades worldwide. However, it stopped all withdrawals in early 2014 when the business suspended trading. The site soon went offline, and the company filed for bankruptcy protection after losing over 800,000 bitcoins.
BTC UPDATETwo scenarious to look out for...
if the bulls take the horn we would see a recovery to test the 200 days moving average at around 23.3k.
otherwise a breakdown would cost us another long wick down to 21.6k
🚨IMP Event to Watch in March 📈
- US CPI release on March 14th
- FOMC meeting on March 22nd
In the picture is also the Mt. Gox event. The distribution of funds to creditors of the defunct crypto exchange is set to kick off on March 10, 2023.
Whats your perspective? do you think the bulls or bears would have more control over the market, cosidering these events and the overview market sentiment?
FTX - A Failure of Crypto, or Fiat?Binance recently announced that they will not be going forward with FTX's bailout - so the future of the company and its holders still hangs in the balance. (The FTT token has been removed from this site since, but last I checked it was down 95%+.) Is this the "end of crypto"?
Well, not quite - MATIC, ATOM, DOGE, ETH, LINK are still in up in the last 6 months, despite the recent drop, highlighting the fact that the fact that the appetite for taking bets on the crypto market is still there. Given that the recession woes are still there, many are likely still on the sidelines waiting for the market to bottom out before deciding to get back in. The downturn was expected, but it's also possible to make the argument that the industry is still doing better than expected.
Here's the tricky part: the FTX scandal is triggering for a lot of people in finance because FTX had their hand in basically everything: crypto, fiat, regulators, celebrities, political parties (SBF and his families have strong ties to the Democratic Party, as records show), the media, and the banking system - both old and new. Unlike previous scams/scandals (e.g. Mt. Gox), FTX had the buy-in of mainstream money and institutions (including regulators) which also calls into question the effectiveness of the institutional safeguards as well.
Who's fault is it? There's likely going to be a lot of finger-pointing in the upcoming months as the mess gets sorted out, but the question for investors right now is whether or not the market is going to see this scandal as a failure of the industry, or a failure of the regulatory framework that currently exists. So far, the results are still unclear.
The irony of the FTX scandal is that these were the sorts of problems that crypto set out to fix - had they used crypto for its intended purpose (on-chain governance, transparency in their financial records and dealings), it's very likely that these issues would have been caught way earlier before it became too late. Some will leave, some will stay, but the ideal outcome to come out of this scandal would be for the people themselves to demand higher standards in accounting and fiduciary duties.
MTGOX DEADLINE EVENTThis is the huge event for Bitcoin and other cryptos but mostly this is the big day for bitcoin.
MtGox is going to release 137,000 that’s worth over 3 billion of bitcoin. It’s going to take months to process and complete it, the big dump should be expecting soon while correcting the drop.
It’s going to be pretty volatile but becareful.
More events are coming on the 21st of the hike decision making following along on the 22nd the ADA Hardfork event.
If buy reversal ever come out of nowhere please becareful of the the huge spike down comes if happens then the buy around 10K maybe 12k we are already in range for the drop meltdown like the plane crash. We are still In crypto winter and bear market it’s far to soon To say it’s over and we are now bullish.. no we aren’t yet please do not jinx it yet.
10K has stronger bottom floors, 17,600 is NOT the bottom.
Bitcoin Q4 2022 Outlook: A Potential 2019 Fractal In PlayBitcoin Q4 2022 outlook: a potential 2019 fractal in play. The 61.8% fib from the December 2017 prior all-time-high to December 2018 low is where Bitcoin peaked by summer 2019: $13.9k. A potential play here is a similar rally to the 61.8% fib, from the current all-time-high of $69k to $17.6k, standing around the $50k psychological level.
Resistance in thr cloudBitcoin needs to break through the resistance it seems to be following. There’s a chance it could go sideways until October 10th while some accumulation happens . September up and downs between 19500 and 20300 are likely
It MUST have strength to smash through or it’s more downtrend
🎲 #ETHPERP #SHORT #SCALP 🎲🎲 #ETHPERP #SHORT #SCALP 🎲
Price is consolidating nicely underneath a key resistance - some big FUD circulating about Mt.Gox (could be true could be false) although given the weakness of the market further down side is highly expected.
ETH simply shows more potential gains than BTC rn with a very good risk reward
Head and shoulders to watch out for on total crypto market cap.Right now price action is currently testing the neck line of a head and shoulders pattern that, if validated, could wipe 250 billion off the total crypto market cap. We can see its been stiffly rejected recently by the 1 day 50ma…in order to avoid validating the h&s pattern, it is crucial to flip this 1 day 50ma back to solidified support. There is a lot of fearmongering recently about a bunch of bt coin being released from Mt. Gox that could get immediately dumped on the market…something to look out for as it is a moment like thaat that could lead to a pattern like this triggering. However for now there’s still a chance this could be a fake out. Will have to wait and see, but we should know soon enough. *not financial advice*
Down-Trend Confirmed, Rejection and Drop to 7,500Strong Rejection from the Upper Resistance trendline Reconfirms DEscending Downtrend of Bitcoi/usdt.
Projected Support Intersection at 7,500.
Fundamental conditions are the root causes of the continuing bitcoin plunge
1 FED Rate Hikes cause strong Risk aversion of Institutionals and Investors, and rotation into Dollar Cash.
2 Continuing wave of BAnkrupcies of Crypt-Frauds, Crypto-schemes and Pyramids only Grows and adds to Bitcoin mistrust by inestors: LUNA. TERRA, Celsius, Voyager and that list grows daily.
3 Liquidation of 140,000 bitcoins from Mt Gox by Court authorities - and anxious owners biting at the bit to finally REALIZE their Profits after years of being unable to do so.
Immediate selloff of a stash that is times bigger than the Musk selloff that caused winter collapse of the price from ATH.
Emphasis: HUNDRED THOUSAND Bitcoins DUMPED ON the Market.
142K BTC Bitcoin will be released from Mt. Gox to creditors If TSLA Tesla sold $936 Million worth of BTC Bitcoin in Q2 (75% of its holdings) and the price dumped from $47300 to $17600 in that timeframe, the release of around $3 Billion from Mt. Gox to creditors in august, people who bought Bitcoin for less than $500 7 years ago, what price will determine?
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Bitcoin long waitHere we have BTC again, this time we are looking at her over the last 3 months.
Listening to Bull Trap while smoking an e-ciggy.
As you may know she twisted her ankle while climbing just before the New Year, and she has been waiting for new (EMA 200) parts since then,
so no climbing for a while said the mechanic, wait for the parts arrive.
The problem is, the parts are in Whales, and they like to take their time over there. "Alrigh, it’ll be there now, in a minute" they said
She has been pretty bored since, to get by she has been playing video games, "Mount GOX climbing" and "Elliot Waves Surf" as well, she got pretty good at it, but is not the same.
Another thing she has been up to is eating wedges and watching tons of movies too, The Bear, Death Cross and Batman.
TETHER CAUSED RISE TETHER WILL CAUSE CRASHAfter MtGox crash ended another wave of BTC rising. With the advent of tether (USDT), bitfinex became the new flagship of the crypto market. Bitfinex became like the FED in crypto. They printed exactly as many USDTs as they wanted not provided with absolutely nothing. Thanks to complete lack of control tether has become the main engine of price movement to 20k in 2017.
2 years passed the price for bitcoin fell 3 times and the number of tether increased by 6 fucking times. Dozens, maybe hundreds of thousands have left the crypto market forever since the beginning of 2018 and the tether volume has grown by almost an order of magnitude. What is this mean? This indicates a huge deception on which the whole market is now holding. And no - these are not instuitionals.
This growth wave was STARTED thanks to tether, this growth wave will be ENDED just as well thanks to tether. The most important question is who holds the biggest amount of tether? Who is the next MtGOX? Are all these marginal shoulders, futures, options, CMC purchases made just for fun?
P.S. Do not forget that those who prints tether do not use widely USDT pairs in their bidding.
Changes in the bitcoin price predictions with google trends. I see, it exists alredy some changes of the behavior of google trends vs. bitcoin price ...
1.) The price falled in November 2018 AND the people wanted to know - Why?
2.) If the interesting falling (google trends lowers), some (big) investors trying to buy a big chunk - it results in a slowly (!!!) deflation... ((they don't want a hype!!! They are clever... They trying to regulate it... The Trustee at MtGox don't moved the remaining 165000 bitcoins to the market - so I am neutral with a little LONG of course. I investing already in ALTcoins again. Every bitcoin hype followed by an ALTcoin hype... But we have some ALT already, they are near to bitcoin: Bitcoin CASH, Bitcoin GOLD, ... AND RSK Smart Bitcoin :D But my favourites: Obyte (with DAG), Ignis, Ardor, ...))
Please see my post on the bitcoinlak also about this changes in the price analyse. I am ifinta on the bitcointalk.org since 2011. Please use my UNLICENCED ideas :) from bitcointalk.org also...
bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=28645;sa=showPosts
I use google trends in analyse since ~2013... I published this kind of price prediction here in Nov. 2015 :)
Update on 1900 price targetAs usual no one can predict the exact time BTC is going to make a move (up or down) and if everyone keeps saying we're going to fall down a boring sideways action occurs that lasts until people start to wonder if maybe we have already hit the bottom.
Newsflash: we didn't.
What we're looking at right now is just another boring descending triangle that is about to break to the downside. I tried to compare it to that last dump from 6000 and it does look kinda similar. First there's an excitement "fake pump" this time we had one to 4200 and a rejected head and shoulder pattern followed by a slow grind for about a month to where we are at now. As you can see we have reached a point where BTC has become "stable" again and is in my opinion very close to another crash. I'm seeing another 100 $ pump before it breaks 3100.
BTCUSD: Estimated path from here onwards...This is just an application of Time@Mode rules and fundamentals (and sentiment) to plot what the Bitcoin chart will possibly look like over time according to my analysis.
I'll be monitoring sentiment and fundamentals to determine if we do bottom and start basing here, or if we will test the next support level below, since there is an active 2-week time-frame downtrend still active as per the chart on the left. The 2-month bars show a potential level where the next long term mode will form, similarly to the level we saw form at $442 from 2013 to 2015, before starting to trend steadily up when breaking up from it.
The next bull run will also adhere to Time@Mode logic, like any trend does, so we can already guesstimate even how high and for how long it may go, with moderate accuracy right now.
This is subject to change over time, but most of the structure for the trend is already set in place. I expect to maintain 75% of this analysis intact, or more.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.