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MU

THE WEEK AHEAD: TLRY, MU, CAG EARNINGS; XOP, GDXJThree earnings announcements interest me this coming week from a volatility contraction standpoint: TLRY (--/79),* announcing on Monday after market close; MU (45/51) -- Wednesday after market close, and CAG (86/45), Thursday, before market open. CAG: Pictured here is a CAG April 18th 22/24/25 Jade Lizard, which was 1.03 at the mid as of Friday close, giving it a downside break even of 20.97 with no upside risk, since the credit received exceeds the risk of the short call aspect of the setup. It's a bullish assumption, theta positive setup with a net delta of 21.14 and a theta of 1.86. Since it's gotten totally hammered since last earnings and does pay a dividend (.85 annualized; 3.69% yield), I could also see just going the most straightforward route, which would be short put, with the at-the-money 23 in the April monthly paying 1.11 with a downside break even of 21.89. TLRY: The April18th 55/60/85/90 iron condor's paying 1.63 at the mid, but I'd be picky and hold out for one-third the width of the wings in credit or pass on partaking, since the markets in the underlying are wider than I'd like. For the young at heart, the 60/85 one standard deviation move break even short strangle's paying 4.11, but would plan on a touch of price discovery if you want in. MU: The April 18th 40 short straddle is paying 4.53 at the mid and is about as delta neutral as you can get (.78) with a theta of 6.7 and break evens of 35.47/44.53. For those who need more room to be wrong and/or delta balance without going inverted: the 35/44 short strangle is paying 1.43 with one standard deviation break evens on both sides (33.57/45.43). On the exchange-traded fund front, premium selling is somewhat thin here with GDXJ (34/26), GDX (31/23), TBT (23/20), OIH (21/28), and IYR (19/12) rounding out the type five sorted by rank; XOP (18/29), OIH (21/28), EWZ (5/28), USO (10/27), and GDXJ (34/26), if sorted by 30-day implied. I'm still short straddling XOP (See Post Below), but don't have anything on in gold (GDX, GDXJ), so may putz with something small and nondirectional there. However, neither the GDX nor GDXJ at-the-money short straddles appear to be paying the 10% I generally like to see out of those -- the GDXJ May 17th 32 is paying 2.80 versus a 32.33 share price; the GDX May 17th 22, 1.67 versus a 22.30 share price. * -- TLRY doesn't yet have a 52-week rank metric, since it hasn't been around that long yet.
NYSE:CAG
by NaughtyPines
SOLD 3 MILLION SHARES. $25 MILLION PROFITWE WERE AND STILL ARE BULLISH ON MICRON BUT... OUR AVERAGE COST WAS DOWN TO AROUND $30.77 AFTER LOWERING OUR COST FROM THE HIGHER PRICES WE PAID, UPWARDS OF $59 A SHARE THE STOCK WENT UP OVER 10 POINTS WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME NOW, THE NEGATIVITY RETURNS TO THE CHIP SECTOR FROM DOGS LIKE NVIDIA...WE MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS POST NVIDIA WAS A BUBBLE AND NOW OUR POST IS COMING TO LIGHT NVIDIA HAS LOWERED REVENUE HOW MANY QTR'S NOW? WE WERE RIGHT WHEN WE POSTED NIVIDA WAS OVER PRICED AND WE ARE STILL RIGHT TODAY! WE CLOSED OUR ENTIRE MICRON POSITION SELLING 3 MILLION SHARES AVERAGE COST: $30.77 PROFIT: $25.5 MILLION WE STILL FEEL MICRON WILL TRADE UPWARDS OF $100 IF YOU HOLD THE STOCK FOR THE LONGER TERM AS FOR THE BUYOUT, WE WOULD LOVE THE WESTERN DIGITAL / MICRON MERGER RUMOR THAT WE HEARD ABOUT COME TO LIGHT, THAT WOULD BE ONE AMAZING COMPANY COMBINED! BEST OF LUCK TO THE LONGS! BULLS MAKE MONEY, BEARS MAKE MONEY, PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED! - DON'T BE GREEDY
NASDAQ:MU
by UnknownUnicorn3159981
2
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) Boosted by AMD + Demand ZoneHave not played MU or SMH traditionally, but it's been one of the steadier semi's going into late January, and has not been affected by NVDA's weak guidance update. Has been working through an ascending channel, and now appears to be breaking out of a bull flag, supported by a demand zone. Targets have been mapped, but expecting 40+, settling down once it reaches the 200dma (currently at 46.18). I'd set a stop around 37.50.
NASDAQ:MULong
by axelroark
MU Overbought - Expect an 8% drop from hereSemis are severely overbought and MU has outperformed the recent bull run this month without any uniquely good news for them, so I expect MU to give back it's gains on a pullback more than average. With semis overbought, market uncertainty into next week, and weekly options expiring tomorrow, I expect a decent selloff tomorrow. Tomorrow would be great timing for an MU selloff, especially considering price movement has been mirroring it's recent price action up. Though, I don't recommend buying puts expiring tomorrow, the options are dirt cheap considering the likelihood of this playing out, so I've just bought last day puts out of the money as a yolo, but am also holding puts expiring in a couple of weeks, since I could be a little early for the pullback. I will add puts into next week if it does not pull back.
NASDAQ:MUShort
by RyanDreBach
OPENING: MU MARCH/JUNE 34 PUT CALENDARDecided to do something slightly different in Micron than an upward call diagonal (See Post Below) ... . Here's what's important about this trade: Max Loss on Setup: $151/contract Max Profit on Setup: Indeterminable Front Month Value on Setup: $253 credit Back Month Value on Setup: $404 debit Theta: .99 Delta: 2.92 In a nutshell, it's a fairly delta neutral, theta positive setup, with the goal being to reduce cost basis in the trade by rolling out the short aspect for additional credit. I would note that calendars are traditionally considered a low volatility environment setup, with the calendar being placed in a manner that would accommodate a volatility expansion and/or downward movement (i.e., out of the money and on the put side). In contrast, this is just a cost basis reduction setup that doesn't require the expansion or the movement ... .
NASDAQ:MU
by NaughtyPines
10
TRADE IDEA: MU MARCH/APRIL 31/38 UPWARD CALL DIAGONALMETRICS: Max Loss On Setup: $476/contract Max Profit on Setup: $224/contract; $112 at 50% max with a Return on Capital of 23.5% at 50% max Break Even Versus Spot: 35.76 versus 35.76 Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 68% Delta: 35.47 Theta: .51 Notes: A similar play to the BMY upward call diagonal (See Post Below), but without all the drama around earnings (which are in the rear view mirror by 34 days). Additionally, a bit more liquid, at least as shown in off hours (bid 4.66/mid 4.76/ask 4.87) and without the goofiness of BMY's two and a half wides ... .
NASDAQ:MULong
by NaughtyPines
$MU Further to Fall - Bearish Options Activity$MU Micron - Some significant bearish put options activity yesterday far out in time contracts deep in the money. - 15k $40.00 strike June'2020 put options traded vs OI under 2k for $18M in premium - 10k $45.00 strike January'2021 put options traded vs OI of 4.1k for $16M in premium If both trades were the same fund it's possible this was another diagonal calendar put spread similar to some others we've seen this week, buying the 2021 puts at the higher strike with higher delta and selling the 2020 puts at lower strike with lower delta. These creative variations of options strategies can be very interesting. Looking at the long term weekly chart I see two possible targets assuming current downtrend continues: Near term - $27.00 (by mid January) Medium term - $21.50 (by next ER late March) Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
NASDAQ:MUShort
by Triple_Barrel_Capital
3
Market looks constructive, but still a ways to go!!!Been a while since I've done a true VWAP analysis of the market here, but after today's rally, it seems like a great time. Basically, the market has been oversold for a while and everyone knew a bounce was coming. Taking a short position this week was quite insane just because a face-ripper of a rally was imminent and the R:R just wasn't worth it. Over the past month, we've had this major break down in price as the market consolidated towards the FOMC meeting and broke to the downside of the triangle after the event occured, leading to a major decline. Today, we saw a nice rally up into the VWAP from the FOMC meeting. This is quite constructive, letting us know the market is retesting some very key points here. The main supply level that people should be highly aware of is the 250-255 level, and if you don't feel that's quite important (even though that's where the orange VWAP is which acted as resistance before FOMC and where the resistance trendline of the triangle is) you should absolutely be aware of the 258-262 level, which basically supported the market since October until we broke below it. Anyway, it's tough to be short at the moment, at least in the near-term time frame just because of the levels of oversold the market has been. Rallies like this do happen in downtrending markets though, because of the heightened volatility, so still be protective of your capital!! If you were to take a long position (which is far from a poor idea), keep an eye on the red VWAP which is the average cost basis since the open today. It's important that people who are buying into this rally remain profitable, because if that fact changes, panic could easily restart here in the markets. In order for my overall neutral/bearish long term outlook to change, I would need to see the market get up to around 255-260 and bounce in that range for a little before breaking that green VWAP to the upside. First though, it must break this downtrending resistance line that's been quite textbook. Real quick, before I end this post, here is a picture of the SPY over the long term: Basically, trendlines are not SUPPOSED to (but can be) be perfect lines that price always bounces at. All you need to take from this is that the market is at a very very very long term Log trendline (and non-log trendline from 2008 if you prefer that), so this could possibly be the reversal point that was needed, but I would personally rather have the market not test support lines as I believe in theory that trend lines are weakened the more they're tested, contrary to the opinion that many think trendlines strengthen the more they're tested. Anway, that's it from me. In the tradition of me always ending my post on some sort of advice to take away from this whole thing, all I can say is protect your capital!! Cash is a position, and everyone forgets that but right now it's more important now than ever to realize that if your confidence in the market is subpar, get out of the market! Try to think clearly and don't panic, but I once heard this saying in a podcast (I believe it was the one hosted by J.C. Parets), a pilot who was on that podcast said "There is a saying as a pilot, that you would rather be on the ground wishing you were in the sky, than in the sky wishing you were on the ground" and that saying could not be more applied to the markets in my opinion. You should never have 100% confidence in any move you make, just because that means your risk management skills are lacking, but you absolutely should be weary of allocating capital if you don't feel you're in the right mindset. If you have any questions, feel free to leave them below. Thanks.
AMEX:SPY
by croganm
AMD: Is there a case to be shortAn update to my original AMD post We know the semiconductor space is very cyclical, and coming off the back of a number of poor earnings ($MU, $NVDA) it's possible we could see a large slowdown in the space. Tradewar concerns seem to hit these stocks hard, especially due to overseas manufactured chips. It's possible the holiday season could bring in solid Q4 earnings. To me the financials looks neutral with Q3 Revs lower but with a slight beat in EPS. It seems guidance on both Revs and EPS are below for Q4. EV/SALES is 3.6x against a historical peak of 3.0x The technicals look like an unwinding in AMD could ensue should the cycle deteriorate. The comps would begin to tell but going off general sentiment it seems rationalisation of a small short bet down to at least $17 shouldn't be too hard.
NASDAQ:AMD
by UnknownUnicorn2421992
ADDED 1,000,000 SHARES - POSSIBLE BUYOUTWe heard a rumor that at least two to three large chip companies approached Micron about a takeover. Is the rumor true, we are trying to find out. We can say this, after looking at the stocks / P/E's of lesser public companies, in the computer / technology industries and other industries, and then looking at the price of Micron, if the company is not purchased by Intel (INTC), Qualcomm (QCOM), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Qorvo (QRVO), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Western Digital (WDC), Broadcom (AVGO) or someone else, it will be a miracle. Look at Cracker Barrel (CBRL), trading at 19 x trailing 12 months, with a P/E of $9.00...STOCK PRICE = $172.00 (yes, we understand it's a restaurant - that doesn't change earnings for earnings or P/E for P/E) So, even if Micron sales drop, and E.P.S drops to between $8.00 and $9.00, the stock should be trading upwards of $175..? No..? E.P.S is E.P.S right...? Cracker Barrel has a market cap of only $4.2 Billion while Micron has a market cap of $41 Billion... Look at MCHP, trading at $73.00 with a market cap of only $17 Billion... P/E....? 32 x trailing 12 months...? OMG! Look at QRVO, trading at $63.50 with a market cap of only $7.7 Billion... P/E...? 460.33 x trailing 12 months...? OMG! MICRON is one of a handful, if not the only UNDERVALUED STOCK ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE Corrupt Analysts calling for more of a drop in the price of Micron could soon be kicking themselves in the teeth! We will continue to keep adding Micron to our portfolio at these FIRE SALE PRICES! IT'S REALLY DISGUSTING WHAT IS HAPPENING TO MICRON! WALL STREET HAS MICRON ALL WRONG AND SOON, THEY WILL ALL BE JUMPING OFF BUILDINGS! HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL OUR FOLLOWERS!
NASDAQ:MULong
by UnknownUnicorn3159981
6