$MU making Head & Shoulders Pattern?Good day!
Been watching MU for a couple of weeks, hasn't been a fun trade lately. After some more detailed TA it appears MU could be completing a Head and Shoulders pattern
Decreasing Volume as what appears to be a Left Shoulder & Head forming help suggest the patterns completion.
Set a few Entry and Exit targets to play the Right Shoulder formation, should it continue to play out. Could Simplify it by going Long and setting tight Stops
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MU
MU ShortAfter a golden cross with the 50 and 200 SMA NASDAQ:MU has pushed up into overbought conditions on the RSI leaving quite a mess as it stretches. Now at all time highs, I believe that it is a good time for a short. With lots of buying pressure in the last couple of days some consolidation is expected. Semi-conductors have been a strong play during 2020, however with a strong bid for Energy yesterday, I believe it is time for past due rotation for the continuation of the unprecedented bull market that has been carried heavily by tech centric stocks. The MAC-D is attempting to double extend to the upside for the first time since September and March lows, and with the overbought conditions it is safe to say that this move will likely be quickly rejected. My first target for MU is support at 61.68 and my second target is the gap up from 58.12 to 59.57. Note that the former highs are at 64.66 and this might serve as a testy area for MU.
Stocks to Watch 11/29/2020The Bull Market is strong, but many stocks are extended and sentiment seems to be extremely bullish. I am cautious with new buys until the sentiment cools off a little. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 28 total stocks on this list. Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. There are also some "COVID" stocks which may be setting up again. . Know your time frame and risk tolerance, grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
Supply & Demand Trading Analysis 11/22/2020With the strong bullish momentum dissipating, the signs of a reemergence of mass hysteria with wave 2 of covid arriving, numerous stocks a far distance away from major moving averages, big institutions adding more hedges to their portfolio's, these stories appear to ring the same tune prior to the crash in march. With a majority of stocks failing to reach new highs or inside supply zones, here are some stocks showing signs that a reversal to the downside is imminent.
MU
- A strong trend to the upside, however volume appears to diverge with price, a textbook bearish signal.
- Inside a major daily supply zone + strong rejection attempting to break above zone.
- Far distance away from 20ema on daily chart. Pullbacks resulted every time during similar prior occurrences.
- Entering a short position if price begins to break lower level of daily supply (59.44)
BIDU
- Price recently bounces of 200ema while inside a monthly demand zone.
- Price is showing consolidation, preparing for another strong move to either side.
- Looking to BTFD if price drops back to 200ema within the monthly demand zone.
MS
- A market top appears to have formed a market top on daily chart after failing to break above supply zones
- Will enter short position if price breaks below $57. Strong indication price is reversing.
- A triple top appears to have formed when analyzing weekly chart.
- A sharp rise in price with decreasing volume and far distance away from ema's = perfect pullback conditions
KSS
- Keeping an eye on how price moves this week as it appears to be forming a bull flag while attempting break above daily supply zone.
- If price moves in predicted pattern, will enter a short position as price enters circled zone. Black trendline is the top of monthly downtrend, expecting a rejection as price approaches.
PYPL
- Price in consolidation in middle of a 4 month trading range. With market conditions showing signs of a market ready to sell, I expect a breakout on the downside.
- Will look to BTFD if price breakouts out, entering demand zone along with 200ema inside zone resulting in high possibility price will use 200ema as support.
CNK
- Price rejects off 200ema after touching ema for the first time in 2020.
- If price begins to rise back into weekly supply zone AND with decreasing volume, will enter a short position in circled zone as it tests both a major supply zone and 200ema resistance.
MU Earning Flop/Bearish Pennant ActiveNASDAQ:MU was short 11 cents on its earnings, was downgraded by several groups and began to selloff yesterday, activating bearish pennant with extremely high volume. Earlier in August their CFO stated that the future of memory chips doesn't look good (www.bloomberg.com) and it caused a 9.54% drop from the day's open over the course of a week. After reaching oversold levels on RSI the stock rallied. My target price for is MU is 10% from Wednesday's opening price- roughly 44.05 though I would like to see a break below 46.65 before taking a position. If MU continues to sell my next target would be 41.14
MU Micron Technology will continue the uptrendMU Micron Technology will continue going up after finding support on the 200 sma that was lining up with the 0.618 fib level which was also lining up with the 3/1 gannfan line and a major support level to the left. It made a double bot and an overall higher low structure.
MU will continue going up until the 1.618 fib level (58.13) which is the 2/1 gannfan line, aswell as a major resistance area
THE WEEK AHEAD: MU, BBBY EARNINGS; XOP, GDXJ, SLV, EWZ, KRE, XLEEARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS:
MU (27/57/10.8%)*, announces Tuesday after market close.
BBBY (32/105/20.2%), announcement Thursday before market open.
Pictured here is an MU October 16th 44/55 short strangle, paying 1.52 as of Friday's close (.76 at 50% max).
For those of a defined risk bent: the MU October 16th 40/45/52.5/57.5 iron condor was paying 1.74 at the mid as of Friday's close, (.87 at 50% max).
For BBBY, I'd probably go short straddle, skinny short strangle, or skinny iron condor with the October 16th 14/15 skinny short strangle paying 2.46 as of Friday's close (.62 at 25% max), and the October 16th 10/14/15/19 4-wide paying 2.02 (.51 at 25% max) with risk one to make one metrics.
OPTIONS LIQUID EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED AND RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE NOVEMBER (56 DAY'S) AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
XOP (16/54/17.8%)
GDX (22/54/17.0%)
SLV (39/48/14.4%)
EWZ (19/44/14.1%)
GDX (21/43/14.1%)
XLE (26/41/13.5%)
SMH (24/40/11.3%)
BROAD MARKET:
QQQ (33/34/10.9%)
IWM (31/34/10.6%)
SPY (21/26/8.3%)
EFA (22/24/7.1%)
DIVIDEND GENERATORS FOR THE IRA SCREENED FOR THOSE WHERE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE:
SLV (39/48/14.4%)**
EWZ (19/44/14.1%)
KRE (27/44/14.2%)
XLE (26/41/13.5%)
MUSINGS:
With the major binary event of the year approaching (U.S. general elections), I'll be attempting to resist the urge to trade in the margin account and will flatten that completely running into the October monthly expiry. The intent was to wind that account up prior to year end, so now is as good a time as any.
With retirement approaching, my medium to long-term focus will be turning to IRA trades in a cash secured environment, with the focus on exchange-traded-funds with dividends and the general go-to strategy being short put, acquisition, and covering, resorting to highly liquid single name only in the event that sector and broad market volatility totally dry up. I'll continue to grind on those broad market/exchange-traded fund trades through the election as long as volatility hangs in there, naturally keeping some powder dry in the event that a high volatility event presents itself. This basic approach has worked well over the years, and I see no particular reason to change it now, even though it has zero sexiness and can be slow going, particularly if you're not the patient type.
My current stock positions are in SPY (covered call), TLT (covered call), IYR (covered call), and EFA (covered call). In addition, I've got short puts or short put ladders deployed in QQQ, IWM, SPY, SLV, EWZ, KRE, XLE, GLD, and HYG.
Previously, I was hesitant to dump my stock positions or allow them to be called away due to their paying dividends, but may change my tune, particularly with SPY, where the dividend is a paltry 1.76% relative to what the 30-day 2 x expected move short put is paying currently. Naturally, what a given option will pay will depend on where the implied volatility is at the given moment, but here the 2 x expected move short put nearest 30 days is the October 26th 305, paying 2.60 or .86% ROC at max (10.32% annualized).
The basic question is whether it's generally worth it to hang out in shares when you don't have to, even if you're getting a little extra something something if you've covered.*** Short puts, after all, make money regardless of whether the stock goes up or sideways and can even make money if the market goes down, assuming that your break even isn't broken; stock only makes money if it goes up. Short puts can be rolled to reduce cost basis further; once you're in stock, you're married to the position.
I guess I'm trying to talk myself into allowing my shares to be called away ... . :-)
* -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank (i.e., where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage the October at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price.
** -- Neither SLV nor GLD pay a dividend.
*** -- The 2 x expected move short call nearest 30 days is the October 26th 346, paying 1.56 or 18.72 annualized, which also far exceeds what you'll receive in SPY dividends on an annual basis (currently 5.681/share or $568.10 per year for a one lot).
MU: Micron Keeps Moving Up - Possible TargetsMicron chart keeps rallying towards its earnings day on 09/29/2020 (confirmed). Trading at $47.80, the price is close to its second target of $48.13 (50% Fib level). Potential higher targets are at $51.46 (78.6%) and $54 (100%) levels.
Scenario analysis: ADP employment numbers to be reported on Sept 3rd may help with further short-term price advancement, if positive. However, September has been a volatile month historically. A broader pull back in major indices is possible between next week and end of this month. If such correction occurs, MU chart may pull back as well, possibly down to $44 level, to resume its rally toward price levels above $50 with general market move higher in October - November time frame. If MU chart makes its way to $51 level before the earnings, that could be a good opportunity to book the profits and reassess possible price movements at that time.
MU: SOXL: Micron is Moving HigherMU: Micron has started its rally toward Q3 - next earnings season. The chart has reached $45.06, its 23.6% Fib retracement level, which may serve as near-term resistance, or consolidation zone before its next leg up. Momentum has turned positive as MACD has crossed to the upside on all time frames. There are two unfilled gaps below, at $43.76 and $42.68 levels. Next possible targets for the move higher are $48.13 (50%), $51.46 (78.6%), and $54 (100%). Pull backs on the way up are possible and are likely to represent a buying opportunity.
THE WEEK AHEAD: MU, FDX EARNINGS; XOP, IWM, EWZEARNINGS:
MU (36/64/11.7%) announces earnings on Monday after the close. Pictured here is a 19 delta short strangle in the July expiry, paying 1.55.
FDX (46/59/11.4%) announces Tuesday after the close, with the 20 delta July 17th 115/147 paying 4.56.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK AND SCREENED FOR 30-DAY >35%:
EWW (59/44/12.6%)
EWZ (47/63/17.7%)
XLE (45/52/16.0%)
GDXJ (43/60/17.7%)
SMH (37/42/12.0%)
GDX (36/45/14.5%)
XOP (32/70/20.2%)
USO (13/67/16.7%)
Would probably go out to August here (54 days) ... . Looked at through the lens of what the short straddle is paying as a function of share price, it looks like I should be selling premium in XOP (20.2%), followed by EWZ (17.7%) and/or GDXJ (17.7%).
BROAD MARKET ORDERED BY RANK:
IWM (57/45/12.7%)
QQQ (38/32/<10%)
EFA (37/29/<10%)
SPY (37/34/<10%)
Small caps continue to be where the juice is at.
IRA DIVIDEND-GENERATORS
IYR (53/40/11.7%)
XLU (50/33/<10%)
EWZ (47/63/17.7%)
EWA (46/40/11.2%)
EFA (37/29/<10%)
SPY (37/34/<10%)
HYG (35/20/<10%)
EMB (20/18/<10%)
TLT (20/19/<10%)
EWZ offers both better better premium as a function of stock price than IYR at the moment, as well as slightly higher yield (3.66% for the former; 3.50% for the latter). Since I've already laddered out IYR, I may dip at the EWZ well with the 16 delta short put paying .70 in August at the 22 strike, .84 in September at the 21 ... .
MU BULLERISH Earnings playMU is in a clear ascending channel, has set up meaningful resistance at the $48 level last week. Looks like it has consolidated at the lower end of the channel and is going to make a move up to the top of the channel. This has set up an opportunity to the long side if MU respects the channel it is in. Monday is earnings for MU after market close, I'm not really sure what it is expected and how they have been doing,a few weeks ago I played the $50 breakout successfully, it ran to 54 where I closed the trade.
This chart presents two trade setups because of the positioning of the stock and the underlying catalyst for a move to either direction.
Bullish: MU price target is $54 upon good earnings as a catalyst to move the stock from the lower end of channel to the higher end of the channel, I'll be playing Jul 31 - Aug 07 options as the longest up move from the lower end of the channel took 24 days to complete.
Side note: MU has earnings on Monday after market close, this means that IV will be extremely high on Monday and might not be worth buying options until after earnings. I have already started a position with Jul 17th options, which I will most likely close at the end of day Monday if MU makes a good move off the lower channel because of IV crush the next day and will re enter if indeed the lower of the channel is respected and the stock moves higher on earnings.
Bearish: If MU breaks that lower end of the channel, it could possibly break down and head lower or bad earnings or even good earnings that did not meet expectation. This entry will be based on whether MU holds that $48 level or not, if not could profit really nicely to the downside with options as well, as put options tend to gain more as vol increases (it mostly increases as the stock goes down)
This is not FINANCIAL ADVICE and SHOULD NOT be taken as a trade just based on what I have put out here. Do your own analysis and use mine as supplementation to support your thesis, mine is strongly to the upside more than to the down side and I have a clear plan as to how I will execute with technical and time stops. OPTIONS ARE NOT FOR EVERYONE, check with your broker or financial adviser first.