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Bitcoin Daily Update (day 243)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis / position: “If you are not in a position then opening a short at $6,300 - $6,315 provides favorable risk:reward. A stop loss slightly above $6,400 makes a long of sense” / Short USDT:USD from 0.0968 (order set at 0.97 to exit at a nominal loss) | Short ETH:USD from $197.81 & Short ADA:BTC from 0.00001129 Patterns: Symmetrical triangle with $5,492 target if it breaks to the downside and $7,101 target if it breaks to the upside Horizontal support and resistance: Prior support is expected to become resistance from $6,345 - $6,385 | S: $6,300 BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back hard, will it find support above 28,500? | Could this be the last squeeze before the trend starts? Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% | Do not think funding has been this out of balance towards longs in all of 2018 Short term trend (3 day MA): Price above and angling up = bullish | Trying to make bullish crossover with 8 MA (signals medium term trend along with 3 week) Medium term trend (3 week MA): 3 & 8 MA’s are angling up but price is below = neutral Long term trend ( 34 Week): bear Overall trend: If 3 day crosses 8 that will make me short term bullish (although I will wait for much more confirmation before looking for a bullish entry). Definitely don’t like being against the trend with my shorts Volume: gfy FIB’s: Broke through 0.618 at $6,312 and 0.5 at $6,345 | Next up is 0.382 at $6,378 Candlestick analysis: Just took out daily shooting star. I was really hoping that the top of that wick would hold as resistance Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud is fatting up after a bearish kumo twist. Shows thick resistance from $6,340 - $6,478 unless we can breakthrough the thin cloud before | Broke through 1h cloud on this last move | Daily cloud is right above the down trend line. This has saved me before, the area between the cloud and the bear trendline indicates a potential area for a bull trap TD’ Sequential: D g1 | 4h g5 | Had a small 1 candle correction after the g9 on the hourly, now g2 > g1 Visible Range: Testing point of control for 2018. There should be a ton of built of resistance in this area Price action: 24h: +0.088% | 2w: -1.66% | 1m: -11.52% Bollinger Bands: Testing MA right now. MA is angling up which indicates that it is less likely to act as resistance Trendline: Bear trend: $6,475 | Bull trend: $6,200 Daily Trend: bull Fractals: Created new down fractal at $6,300 RSI: One hour RSI is very overbought (> 80) while we are trading at major resistance. Very strong indication of a reversal Stochastic: 4h is overbought, agrees with 1h RSI Summary: I rarely put any emphasis on the 1h hour chart. However I have the 1h & 10m RSI's to be very helpful for recognizing when we are overbought or oversold on a short term basis. After the price broke through the daily shooting star as well as the 4h shooting star from the prior candle I was very worried that we would pump right back through $6,400. Now I am feeling cautiously optimistic. Being overbought at major resistance is generally a very strong sign of a short term reversal. If you took the position that I outlined yesterday then your stop should still be safe (for now) and I don't see any reason why that should be adjusted now. If you are still on the sidelines then this could be a great opportunity to build a short and use a tight stop loss. We are at a very significant resistance cluster and this was the original area where I suggested an entry from two days ago . Setting a stop loss anywhere from $6,450 - $6,550 makes a lot of sense based on horizontal and trend resistance.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 242)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis / position: “Bounce to $6,385 | selloff to $6,000 | bounce to $6,150 and then breakdown $6,000” & warned against selling bear flag breakdown due to underlying support / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 | Short ETHUSD' from $197.81 Patterns: Coil Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,300 | R: $6,312 BTCUSDSHORTS: Closed below triangle Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% Short term trend (4 day MA): Above MA, but it has not starting turning up - neutral Medium term trend (4 week MA): bear Long term trend ( 32 Week): bear Overall trend: bear Volume: Lowest monthly volume since Oct 2017 FIB’s: Selloff found support at 0.786 ($6,210) | Breaking down 0.618 ($6,327) is very significant | 1.618 extention is at $5,630 Candlestick analysis: Daily was a bit of a darth maul | Interested to see how we react from the 4h doji Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud called the area of resistance on this last pump. Watch for price to close below the kumo at ~$6,300 TD’ Sequential: With monthly close the setup in continued with a r3 | Daily r5 | Weekly r4 Visible Range: Looking back to Feb 2018 (when this range started) and the POC is at $6,339 with the bottom of the highest volume node at $6,162. Price action: 24h: +0.63% | 2w: -1.37% | 1m: -4.42% Bollinger Bands: Daily MA at $6,364 has just starting angling up which is very interesting. Haven’t seen this angle up for weeks and that indicates that it is less likely to act as resistance Trendline: Bear trend is at $6,500 | Bull trend line (phase 2 hyperwave) is at $6,195 Daily Trend: bull Fractals: Busted two down fractals on last move, next one waits at $6,055 RSI: 4h resisted 50 | 1h no longer oversold and is pulling back from overbought territory Stochastic: Daily buy signal | 4h entering overbought territory | 1h sell Summary: Everything is still going according to plan. I was closely watching the monthly close today for a couple reasons. First of all I was really wanting the TD’ setup to continue with a red 3 as outlined in my most reason Bitcoin Bubble Comparison . The second reason was a close below $6,390 (Bitstamp) gave us the lowest monthly close since September 2017. Now I am watching for resistance to hold strong below $6,385 over the next 24 - 48 hours. If that happens then I will be feeling confident in a $6,000 retest,. I still expect that area to provide one last dead cat bounce before the price breaks down the yearly support. If you are not in a position then opening a short at $6,300 - $6,315 provides favorable risk:reward. A stop loss slightly above $6,400 makes a long of sense based on horizontal support and resistance along with the visible range volume profile.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
NZDJPY - short at Daily (symmetry wave rule)Look left, finding a rule wave for Entry. There are 2 Zone for Sell: 1. The Group wave Weekly (I)(II)(III)... is at the 'Wave (III) to Wave (IV). 2. The Group wave Daily I, II, III.. is at the Wave V to VI. I want to sell in the zone of this group (price is from 75.537 to 76.362). When NZDJPY reached The zone for Sell and down (break trendline at the Smaller timeframe). Therefore, I predict he will drop again. * Entry 1: Sell now Target 1 is at 73.841. Target 2 is at 73.167. Stoploss is at above the Wave VI 20 bibs 76.363+.0.200 = 76.563 * Entry 2: Sell limited at 76.362 Stop loss is at 77.167 + 0.20 = 77.367 Target is the Same.
Short
by dinhchien
EURJPY - LongMonitor 1 Weekly (I), (II) (III): UP, Wave (II) to (III). Monitor 2 Daily I, II, III: Down, is The wave II. Monitor 3 H4 (1), (2), (3): Up, is the wave (2) to (3). Follow Monitor 1. Monitor 4 H1 1, 2, 3: Up, is the wave 4. Follow Monitor 1. * Therefore I predict EURJPY will go accord Monitor 1. Entry 1: Group wave H1 from 130.216 - 130.846 or out the Green Trendline for a buy. Stop loss: 128.320 (reversal for down to zone wave H4). Take profits: 133.993 (Butterfly). Entry 2: Group wave H4 from 127.349 - 125.979. Stop loss: 121.713 (Below Daily trend). Take profits: Move stop loss (Symmetry rule wave). Update later. Like, comment, follow me, thanks. The prediction is always 50/50
Long
by dinhchien
5
What Support Looks Like When It BreaksLooking at the m15 chart only can lead you to have the correct idea but in the wrong place. By looking at high time frame charts you get a better picture of when a trend is in place, when a trend is no longer working or when there is no trend and we're in a range. On the attached charts a daily time frame (top left) has a defined up trend and at 1.6700 the trend line and price meet for the 3rd time of Sept 27th. Here traders wanting to keep adding to long trade would initiate a long trade. However by the close of the daily candle that idea is no longer valid, as the trend line did not hold as support. Moving down through the smaller time frames we see that the days leading up to the 27th September have been consolidated into small daily moves. There is a clear line of support under these days that is clearly broken on the H1 chart etc. This equates to the time when the Daily candle approaches the rising trend line. What we see happen next is that the broken daily horizontal support is now acting as horizontal resistance and price is trapped between this new horizontal resistance and the rising daily up trend. When the horizontal resistance holds and the daily rising trend line are broke on the H1 candles traders waited for a quick retest and then went short. Accelerating the move.
Education
by OctaFX_Official
2
USDTRY - short at H1Look to the left. 16 Aug 2018: 5.67354 breaks the symmetrical wave rule (reversal pattern) for a long-term downtrend, counted as wave I. 30 Aug 2018: The market corrected for wave II Thus, I expect the market to drop from Wave II to Wave III. - Monitor 1: wave group on I, II, III ... (Down) - Monitor 2: H4 wave group (1) (2) (3) ... increase the tuning wave (3) and break the trend from the wave (4) - Monitor 3: Wave group H1 1, 2, 3 ... appeared the rule wave symmetry. * Sell limited: 6.38927 - 6.50385 * Stop loss: 6.86093 * TP1: 5.49678 - TP2: 5.18436 - TP3: 4.66535 Like, comment, follow for me. Good lucks.
Short
by dinhchien
2