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GBPCAD 500+ pip move potentialGBP has been dominating all week and is, imho, overextended. GBPCAD is now at a Daily Resistance level that has been rejected 3 out of the last 4 times (75%) Need to see compression on the 60 min chart below the resistance level and then a strong bearish candle for entry. Entry = not yet ??? the stop will be 10 pips (+2 for spread above the last swing high) PT = 1.6668 * both sides of this pair have news release that will effect this trade. GBP retail sales at 4:30 est.which is forecasted for -0.8 which can easily be beat and CAD CPI at 8:30 est .Please take this into consideration ** A more aggressive entry can be made if there is either multiple testing of the resistance level or a tight compression below but at it, for at least 8 hrs.
Short
by AGold54
USD/JPY 1:8.6 RR SETUPHere's my scenario for USD/JPY using Multiple Time Frames Analysis : 1. Price Broke H4 Support then retesting the Support (In a Down Trend) 2. I move down to M30, I see Double Top (M) Pattern as my setup 3. Wait the price breaking M Pattern then entry at retest zone 4. - Stoploss would be above M Pattern - Take Profit would be at Daily Support which is also consider as Monthly Support at that time - Move to Breakeven when M30 Makes new Strucuture (LL) You can see my setup obviously in the chart, Hopefully this will help you Happy Trading All :)
Short
by AndyMilliano
1
Comprehensive Trading ProcessDisclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Consensio: (King) 5% when Price crosses Short Term MA | 10% when Price crosses Medum Term MA | 15% when Short Term MA crosses Medium Term MA | 20% when Medium MA turns over | 25% Price cross Long Term MA & Long MA flattens / turns over| 25% Golden Cross Patterns (Queen): Favorites: hyperwaves, parallel channels, descending triangle, head & shoulders, Wyckoff’s, double bottoms & tops, flags | Least favorite: symmetrical triangle Horizontals (Rook): Horizontals > trend lines Trendline (Bishop): Very powerful when used in combination with Consensio. One of my favorite setups is a trendline break alongside a reversal in Consensio. Parabolic SAR (knight): Best tool I have found for setting / adjusting stop losses. Can also be used as no trade zone. For ex: if wanting to go long and SAR is bearish (above price) then could / should wait for SAR to break before entering. BTCUSDSHORTS (pawn) : If shorts are at / near ATH’ levels then I do not want to be short and will actually have a bias for going long. Funding Rates (pawn): Helps me to understand supply / demand. When shorts are getting expensive then I expect a short squeeze to be around the corner. Contango / Backwardation (pawn): Not a timing indicator. Is used to determine bullish / bearish bias and can help to identify tops / bottoms / support and resistance. Watch the video series and Google “Ugly Old Goat Backwardation” to learn more. TD’ Sequential (pawn): “The trend is your friend until it’s about to end” -Tom Demark | Used to identify when a trend is becoming exhausted which can be very helpful to confirm or deny an entry. Ex: if wanting to go long on a green 7/8/9 then would strongly prefer to enter on correction that is expected to follow. Average Directional Index (pawn): Used to identify when trends are becoming exhausted. When ADX’ reaches resistance / ATH levels then it is likely that the trend is reaching a point of exhaustion Ichimoku Cloud (pawn): Starting to use traditional settings across the board. Crypto settings seem to make the cloud useless when markets are volatile, whereas the traditional settings seem to line up nicely with the MA’s I use for Consensio. Price Action (pawn): Helps me understand when markets are overbought / oversold in the short term. In my experience it is very rare for Bitcoin or Ethereum to move more than 10% in 24 hours. Therefore if I am wanting to enter long and the price is + > / = 7% in the past 24 hours then I will be very cautious and usually wait for a pullback / consolidation. Bollinger Bands (pawn): Very helpful for recognizing when a trading range is coming to an end, which can be very useful for spotting trends that are just starting / about to start. Also like the Bollinger Band % to help illustrate extremes. Relative Strength Index: Divergences can be very useful for understanding short term price movements and potentially full on reversals. When markets are moving I like to check the RSI on the 1h and 4h charts and pay close attention to divergences as indication that a trend could be exhausting. Stochastic Oscillator: Very useful in trending markets that have not gone parabolic. Can be helpful in ranging markets as well, but not nearly as much. Can get some very good signals on the 3d chart. If there is a buy / sell signal then I think it is best to wait for %K and %D to cross the boundary lines before considering it significant. Hierarchy of Indicators The best traders know which indicators are most important at which times. A trader is like a carpenter and the indicators are akin to his toolbelt. Through experience he or she knows which ones to reach for, exactly how they are used and what adjustments could be required for a specific circumstance. It is one thing to understand that an MA rolling over is an indication of a trend reversal. It is entirely another to fully believe it and be able to act on it. Next is understanding which indicators can be disregarded at which times and which should always be taken into account. Above lists my indicators by order of importance. However that is only a default and it will change based on market conditions. For example: if a hyperwave is present then patterns become more important than Consensio and trendlines become more important than horizontals. If market is parabolic then I find the Stochastic useless and will adjust the settings on the RSI to 30. If no trend is present then the Bollinger Band can go from a pawn to the King. It would take much too long to go into all of the different variables I can think of and how it can change the hierarchy of indicators. What is important is that you start to develop the feel for it yourself. The only way I know how to do that is through checking all of them on a regular basis, in all different types of markets (bull, bear, flat, parabolic). Learn -> Practice -> Fail -> Learn -> Practice -> Understand -> Apply -> Internalize -> Believe -> Achieve -> Fail -> Learn Monthly, Weekly & Daily Processes Daily Check daily close every day. If entry or exit was signaled then make sure to get filled within 30 minutes of close. If passing on an entry signal then notate why. Never pass on exit signal. Update trading ledger to reflect any changes (I will be posting my results in the 2 > 20 Bitcoin Trading Challenge). Go through the TA Process listed above on a daily basis (I post my analysis in the Bitcoin' Daily Update). Make sure that you are highly focused during the candle close otherwise the mistakes will compound. I prefer to go to the gym on a daily basis and be disciplined about my diet in order to maintain a high level of focus. I have also committed to a daily hot springs meditation session that has proven extremely valuable over the past year. For anyone that watches Mr. Robot think of Tyrell Wellick chopping wood while confined by himself in the forest. Having a task that is repeatable on a daily basis provides balance, perspective and focus. I find a consistent sleep schedule to be vital in my performance as a trader. I make sure that I am in bed by a certain time so that I wake up feeling refreshed / energized and ready to trade. Weekly On Sunday I will analyze the weekly chart instead of the daily chart. Trading ledger that gets updated daily is used for weekly PnL statements which get done on Saturday morning instead of preparing for traditional markets to close. I keep an excel spreadsheet for each exchange I trade on and include sections for Date, Entry, USD Inventory, BTC Inventory, Withdrawals, Delta, PnL, Unrealized PnL, In position. When I first got into crypto I completely disconnected from my friends and family. To ensure the first doesn't happen again I commit to two social activities per week and for the latter I commit to calling my mother every Sunday. Monthly Review biggest trades from prior month. Dissect entries, exits and position sizes. Everything should be repeatable / explainable in hindsight. If it isn't that means I didn't stick to the guidelines and that is mistake. I cannot expect to be a perfect trader, however I can expect to learn from my mistakes. Monthly Best & Worst Dressed List. After reviewing the trades find the best and worst examples. Print out the charts, notate why they made the list and put them in a binder. In the short term, how I trade is exponentially more important than how much money I make or lose. Therefore if the monthly PnL was subpar but very few mistakes were made on the worst dressed trades then I consider that a huge success and will expect the variance to even out in the medium - long run. Weekly PnL statements is used for monthly PnL statements -It feels really good to make a lot of money and it can feel very frustrating when results do not meet expectations. This is why I believe that is it vital to focus on the process and improving instead of the results. A few good results could be the byproduct of luck. One good / great process will lead to sustainable results as long as you can remain disciplined / diligent. While some may prefer to be lucky rather than good I strongly prefer to put in the effort that it takes to be good. Furthermore luck seems to be attracted to those who put in the consistent effort. Nevertheless I still track short term results because I have bills to pay. Eventually I would like to only pay attention to annual results. “So you want to be a carpenter, do you? Well it takes more than a hammer, boy, you're gonna need blueprints and a will to build, and Straighten your cap! you look like you've been through a war. Wipe that grin off your mug, you got a sturdy frame? Sluggish posture just won't cut it. You're gonna need schooling, and, and, and take notes! And god if I catch you yawning again you're gonna regret ever asking for my help, And dammit you gotta hustle, this is a slacker-free zone And, where's my pencil? go get your hard-hat, here's a nickel, go get us a ruler and a saw and a drill and lots of graph paper!” -Aesop Rock
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Sawcruhteez
5
EURAUD 60 min Senkou A ShortThe Monthly and Daily direction is Bearish. The market has retraced, and been rejected at the Daily Senkou A (bottom of the cloud) at 1.5841 I anticipate the market will drop back to the cloud, either the Senkou A (top) or the Senkou B (bottom) and then rally back to retest the Senkou A at 1.5841 2 Potential entries; First, the aggressive entry would be to place sell limit orders at the Senkou A with a 50 pip stop Second, wait for the confirmation of the Cloud breakout trade
Short
by AGold54
6
EURUSD: PerspectivesI don't know which way EURUSD is going - as my analysis are time frame dependent and trend-dependent. Plus my crystal ball was broken many years ago, beyond repair! :)) In this screencast, I've reviewed from Weekly down to 15 min time frames. I'm in too much doubt. When in that state of mind, I'm happy to stay out and be left behind to miss loadsah equity or profit. Recently for example I bailed out of a long position on Oil - and thankfully I did so. If my probability estimates in my own mind ain't right, I'll stay out or get out of any trading setup. I don't do coulda-woulda-shouldah. :))
by Captain_Walker
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 275)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: “we appear to be creating a new bear trend and I am feeling skittish . Moved my stop to breakeven well before my guidelines suggest.” Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 Patterns: Bear channel (4h) | Is that a 4h c&h off the bottom of the channel? Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,70 & $3,858 | R: $4,035 BTCUSDSHORTS: After closing outside trend resistance we quickly retracted > 50% and closed back below which is a strong indication of a trap. Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0352% Short term trend (4 day MA): Price close below + sell signal with 9 MA Medium term trend (9 day MA): Two candles closed below but 9 is still trending up Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Trending down Overall trend: Yet again the short and medium are having trouble making up their mind while the long is in a serious bear trend. Indicates no trade zone for me and suggests that we will range in a Wyckoff manner for another 1-2 weeks until we retest the 33 MA around $4K. Volume: Seems to be more buyers than sellers < $3,800 and more sellers than buyers > $4,000. Another indication that further consolidation is necessary. Look at the weekly selling volume! 2nd only to the selloff on Feb 4th. FIB’s: Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909 Candlestick analysis: Bullish spinning top Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud is very interesting to me, showing thick resistance from $3,900 - $4,000. Makes me wonder if you could make a similar indicator for support to indicate which is thinning out faster. Ex: cloud on top and cloud on bottom. Used for ranging markets, while the traditional cloud is only useful in trending markets. TD’ Sequential: Daily & weekly r4 Visible Range: High volume node from $4,000 - $4,600 holding as resistance. Surprised we haven’t fallen through the gap down to $2,977 Price action: 24h: +1.28% Bollinger Bands: Last two candles are entirely below the bottom weekly band. Daily MA as coming down fast and may provide resistance before my 33 MA. Trendline: 4h channel we looked at yesterday is holding as support and so far price is resisting somewhere around the median instead of retesting the top end. Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Turning up after price was reluctant to stay below. Was bearish for 2 days and appears to be turning around Parabolic SAR: $3,586 RSI: Could be finding support at 30. Also could be creating a h&s. Stochastic: Did a great job yesterday crossing bullish when we selling off. Last Day Rule: Trigger day for bulls: <$3,476 | Trigger day for bears: > $4,430 Summary: Yet again the short and medium are having trouble making up their mind while the long is in a serious bear trend. Indicates no trade zone for me and suggests that we will range in a Wyckoff manner for another 1-2 weeks until we retest the 33 MA around $4K. I will also be watching the Bollinger Band MA to act as resistance before the 33 MA is able to. When the price gets choppy after a selloff and works it way towards bearish trending MA’s then high probability positions can usually be found. My guidelines triggered a full short entry with a close below the 4 MA, 9 MA, 33 MA & a bearish crossovers with all of them. However the stop loss was not favorable and I still think it is two early. I am watching for continued chop and will hope to enter at a better price, better risk ratio or hopefully both. A good example is the current ADA setup. Broke down a descending triangle, formed a bear flag / channel as it cleanly retested. Consensio just signaled the same full entry is outlined above in Bitcoins close. Today is also a red 2 that quickly fell below a red 1. It also appears to have broken down a key psychological level of 1,000 sats. All that being said I could be wrong on both accounts. It impossible to know / control the direction or timing, However it is possible to know and control the pot odds.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 273)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: Expecting 1-4 month bounce due to the TD Sequential on the 31d chart, along with short term trends turning bullish Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Long LTCBTC from 0.00812 Patterns: Peter Brandt labeled this in i h&s and I can’t say I disagree. 4h symmetrical triangle. The 1h c&h from yesterday’s post failed to confirm. Now it looks like it could be forming a down trend Horizontal support and resistance: S: $4.046 & $3,875 | R: $4,181 BTCUSDSHORTS: Shooting star at resistance + close below 4 MA Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0715% Short term trend (4 day MA): Closed below and trending down Medium term trend (9 day MA): Close above and trending up Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Trending down at $5,239 Overall trend: Clear no trade zone for me due to short and medium trends disagreeing Volume: Continues to decrease as we consolidate FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909 Candlestick analysis: Bearish doji Ichimoku Cloud: Daily Tenken-Sen & Kijun-Sen are hovering right around the 33 MA | 4h continues to hold as support TD’ Sequential: Daily r2 = r1 Visible Range: Testing high volume node from $4,000 - $4,600 and finding resistance Price action: 24h = -3.94% Bollinger Bands: MA is coming down fast. Now it’s at $4,486 Trendline: Higher lows on the daily could be the start of new trendline Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Bearish Parabolic SAR: $3,546 RSI: Failed to get oversold on the weekly Stochastic: Bullish recross Last Day Rule: Waiting to trade above $4,384 for trigger day Summary: It is starting to look more and more like we will pullback for a retest of $3,750. The higher volume that we saw in the area last time along with the daily parabolic SAR lead me to believe that we will double bottom before bouncing, something like what was outlined in day 270. I like the risk reward of a long in that area. Profit target would be the 33 MA, which is expected to be around $5,000. Stop loss would be slightly under the parabolic SAR at $3,524 for a 5.53:1 reward to risk ratio. It is entirely possible that we continue to fall from here without getting a bounce, however I do not like the risk:reward on a short at these levels and I am going to pass on the sell signals in hopes to re open ~33% > the current prices.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 272)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: “I am still expecting a retest of $3,750 support before getting a bounce.” Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Long LTCBTC from 0.00812 Patterns: 1h c&h Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,900 R: $4,250 BTCUSDSHORTS: Hanging man + shooting star at trend and horizontal resistance Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.01% Short term trend (4 day MA): Barely closed below Medium term trend (9 day MA): Flattening out nicely Long term trend ( 34 day MA): At $5,319 and trending down Overall trend: Long term is very bearish. Short and medium and turning bullish. With the close above the 9 MA I expect the 34 to get retested Volume: Weak buying volume around half of the MA FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909 Candlestick analysis: Bearish marubozu closed on the monthly Ichimoku Cloud: 4h acting as clean resistance TD’ Sequential: 31d chart is on a perfected 9. It has been brought up in Tone’s chat that this is preferable to the Monthly. It closes on Dec 7th. This mornings rally topped on a perfected 9 (1h). Visible Range: Nobody wants to talk about the enormous node at $1,000 Price action: 24h: +5.03% Bollinger Bands: If you don’t want to talk about the node at $1,000 then you definitely don’t want to see the bottom band on the 31 day chart. Trendline: Broke trendline didn’t quite get retested. Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) bullish | On the other side of the token the 31 day chart is threatening to close below the 33 MA for the second time ever. Last time was Jan 1, 2015 Parabolic SAR: Daily is at $3,511 RSI: Weekly is bouncing from 30. We we so close to getting oversold and capitulating. Stochastic: 31d is entering oversold territory Last Day Rule: Yesterday was the setup day, think I missed that yesterday. Trigger would be trading below Nov 30ths close. Summary: While analyzing the longer term charts I got a little sad. It looks like we were very close to finding a bottom and now I have started to change my outlook significantly. The main reason I say that is because we did not capitulate and now I am expecting a bounce that could take 1-4 months. I think this bounce could be a lot sharper than most people expect and that is because I’m expecting a major breakdown in alts. A flight to safety could pump BTC back above $6,000 before it eventually creates a new low below $3,500. I’m not saying this is what I expect, I am saying that this is what I am prepared for over the next 1 - 4 months. Trading against the trend is extremely dangerous, so if I don’t get my ideal long entry then I will have no problem passing on it and waiting to re enter my short positions. The risk:reward is not attractive on a long at all right now. The target I would use is the 33 day MA. It is at $5,300 but will probably be closer to $5,000 if we retest it ( moves down every day). The tightest stop loss I would use is the daily SAR at $3,513. The way I see it the risk:reward is 1:1.18 and I do not put my money at risk for those odds even when I’m trading with the trend. Now I should probably explain the LTC long. Not it's not a typo, it's actually a sweet set! I trade the daily chart and the 9 & 33 MA's are getting a golden cross while today closed above the 4 MA. It also appears to be breaking the bear trendline which is a pretty reliable signal in and of itself.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
13
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 268)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: "Until then I am looking to short alts vs BTC and I am preparing to buy back spot BTC (time horizon is > 2 years)." Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 Patterns: Symmetrical triangle inside a bear channel (4h) Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,542 | R: $4,066 BTCUSDSHORTS: At trend resistance slightly below my alert. Very interesting to see if we get a short sqeeze here. Funding Rates: Longs receives 0.115% (10X the normal rate) Short term trend (4 day MA): Found resistance below on the close indicating that a long is unwarranted right now based on Consensio. Medium term trend (9 day MA): Right in line with the top of the bear channel Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Key area of resistance for me when we get a bounce (not saying it will be here, am saying that is dialed in to catch the top of bounces) Overall trend: Bear Volume: Largest volume was November 20th, watch for the bottom of that candle to be a key area of resistance on a bounce FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $,4056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909 Candlestick analysis: Hammer. Very important how this candle responds. Opening and staying above the top of the body is bullish. Breaking down the bottom of the body is bearish. Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud was clean resistance and is thick from here to $3,960 TD’ Sequential: Current candle is price flipping Visible Range: Broke down the bottom of the high volume node (HVN) at $3,877. Refilling the gap below is to be expected. Next HVN = $3,077 Price action: 24h: +2% Bollinger Bands: Starting to come off the bottom band. Watch for a return to the MA. Trendline: Trendline from symmetrical triangle (blue) is right under the 34 MA (4h chart) at $3,900. The top of the bear channel = $4,120 Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Starting to flatten after trending down hard Parabolic SAR: $4,412 RSI: See a small bull div’ following the high volume selloff. Stochastic: Was finally trying to get up and now it looks like it wants to recross again Last Day Rule: Watching for close above $4,112 for setup day. Summary: If we can breakthrough the 4h bear trend and support a throwback then it would be a very good sign of an incoming bounce. The daily close below the 4 MA puts me in a no long zone until a candle closes above. There are a lot of indicators showing a short term bounce to $5,000 or above, however there are some very strong indicators that say it is too soon to buy. There is too much resistance and momentum for the 14 day trend that started on November 14th. This is a clear no trade zone for me and I will leave my small buy orders set at $2,700 - $3,000 (greater than 2 year time horizon). In the mean time I continue to expect alts to start falling like dominos. I have been holding my EOS:BTC short in the red for over a week. It feels great to finally see a red candle close below horizontal support. Entering a short on a retest for resistance looks like a good play to me.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
3
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 258)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis : Reiterated views from previous post and warned about alts pumping before falling off a cliff Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 | Short ETH:USD from $205.20 & $196.32 Patterns: 4h bear pennant with $4,557 target Horizontal support and resistance: S: $5,200 | R: $5,518 BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back hard from shooting star Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0263% | Was not expecting to see that based on the BTCUSDSHORT’ chart. Makes me wonder where all these shorts are? According to blockchainwhispers.com the long:short ratio is 54:46 therefore I cannot understand why shorts are paying longs. If anyone knows please leave a comment! Looking at 4h trends today Short term trend (3 day MA): Price recently closed below Medium term trend (8 day MA): Recent sell signal with 3 crossing 8 Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Angled down sharply, will be apart of resistance cluster if we bounce to $6,000 Overall trend: bear Volume: Volume has died down following the spike, another volume spike should be following soon. FIB’s: High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th') 1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224 Candlestick analysis: Failing to bounce off high volume dragonfly is very bearish Ichimoku Cloud: Thick 1 hour cloud shows strong resistance at $5,570 - $5,780 TD’ Sequential: Daily red 9 Visible Range: If price can’t support $5,200 then I expect us to fall right through $5,000 due to the gap in volume Price action: 24h: -0.75% | 2w: -12.97% | 1m: -14.42% Bollinger Bands: Watching for price to stick to bottom band after closing outside Trendline: Bear pennant Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: After breaking all of the down fractals in 2018 we found support above the next one down ($5,122) RSI: All time low on daily. Watching closely for divergence Stochastic: Daily looks like it is recrossing bearish Summary: The first consolidation after a move is often redistribution (or reaccumulation) and it is starting to look like BTC’ will following that pattern instead of bouncing to retest $6,000 for resistance. The 4h chart is forming a bear pennant with a $4,350 target. That will confirm with a close below the previous candle ($5,410 on USD exchanges).That would also give the daily chart a chance to form the bull div’ that I have been watching for. That also lines up very nicely with my prediction that $5,000 will breakdown without providing a bounce due to the gap in volume. If that happens then $4,200 - $4,500 would be very likely to provide support. If all goes according to plan then I will be closing my shorts in that area and looking to open small longs. In the meantime I am stalking alt’s looking for short positions. EOS’, LTC’, XRP’ and TRX’ are at the very top of my list and I think the next 1-2 days will provide some prime entries.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
EURCAD 60 Cloud BreakoutMonthly direction is down Daily is in the Sell zone All requirements are met for a cloud breakout; 1. Have a cloud breakout 2. Have a TK cross 3. The Chikou is below price 4. Future kumo is bearish 2 Potential entries: First, the breakout entry is 6 pips below the breakout candle (however, since the next candle was a little lower I used that low of 1.4916); Breakout Entry = 1.4910 Stop = 10 pips + 2 for spread above the Senkou B at 1.4965 = 1.4977 Risk = 67 pips Second, Pullback trade: Their is a very strong Resistance level at 1.4956 (blue line) which is a great place to place a limit order Entry = 1.4956 Stop = 1.4977 Risk = 21 pips
Short
by AGold54
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 256)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis / Death cross with 9 and 34 MA’s, close below symmetrical triangle and a breakdown of horizontal support triggered a full entry Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 and short ETH:USD from $205.20 Patterns: $5,600 target from symmetrical triangle was hit within 48 hours of breakdown Horizontal support and resistance: S: $5,522 | R: $5,875 - $6,150 BTCUSDSHORTS: Bouncing hard and fast but still plenty of room to go before resistance Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.224% (wow!) Short term trend (3 day MA): bearish Medium term trend (8 day MA): bearish Long term trend ( 34 day MA): bearish Overall trend: Death cross provided an ideal short entry yesterday evening. Volume: Finally!!!! If anyone tries to say that this is a bear trap / shakeout before breakout then refer them to the daily volume. When using a combo of the 5 major USD exchanges this is the highest we have seen in ~ 3 months. FIB’s: (High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th') Candlestick analysis: 1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224 Ichimoku Cloud: 4h appears to be lining up with my horizontal resistance at $5,868 TD’ Sequential: Today closed a red 7 and we just opened a red 8 Visible Range: Gap in volume at $5,000 makes me think there will not be the support there that most expect Price action: 24h: -10.24% | 2w: -10.59% | 1m: -9.28% Bollinger Bands: Dat' bulge we have all been waiting for : ) Trendline: Connect top of May 5th to top of July 24th. I expect this to be the top of the down trend. Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: Took out every last down fractal from 2018 RSI: Record low! High alert for bearish divergence. One one other time daily RSI was < 19.6 and a 18.32% bounce followed. If that happens again then price would rally to $6,332 (probably while alts have a flight to safety) and that would create a very similar bear trap that we saw in 2014 - 2015. Stochastic: Monthly is falling into oversold territory. Monthly buy signal + RSI < 45 will be strong indicators of the bottom. Should be combined with weekly RSI < 30. All things to pay close attention to. Summary: Already took profit on 25% of my BTC’ and ETH’ shorts due to RSI reaching record lows along with the daily TD 8 opening (will often get a 1-4 candle correction on a 7 or an 8 instead of a 9). Now I am preparing for three options: a bounce that retests $5,868 - $6,150 for resistance. If that happens then I will be considering it the highest probability entry of the year. I expect there to be so big volume waiting to exit their longs at that price range. Nevertheless I am paying close attention to the bear trap that followed the support breakdown in the 2014 - 2015 bubble (see charts above). The markets have a strong propensity to rekt both bulls and bears whenever possible. A short term bounce back to $6,300 would do exactly that and it is something to prepare for. The main catalyst that could cause that is a flight from safety out of alts and back into BTC’. Could also see another pump caused by traders exiting Tether. That premium is back to 5% and has been inflating the price on USDT exchanges. The last option I am watching for is a divergence in the daily RSI like the one that followed the last time it reached < 19.6. If that happens then I plan on exiting 80% - 100% of my position with the intention to re open at 10% - 18% higher.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
11
EURJPY Potential Cloud BreakoutPotential cloud Breakout The Monthly direction is down Pair is in the Sell zone on the Daily and is at major resistance levels Since this trade is several hours away from a set-up I can not provide specific order details That said there is 2 ways to enter this trade: First, on a 60 min close below the Daily Kejun Sen (blue line) Second would be a cloud breakout satisfying all the criteria; 1) a Cloud breakout 2) A TK cross 3) The Chikou is below price 4. A future Kumo twist ** Also the close of the breakout candle must close below the Daily Kejun Sen
Short
by AGold54
CHFJPY 60 Cloud BreakoutMonthly and Daily direction is down and have met a ll the requirements for a Cloud Breakout: 1. Have a break below the Cloud. 2. Have a TK cross 3. The Chikou is below price 4. The future Kumo is bearish 2 Potential entries for this trade: First; The Breakout trade. Entry is 4 pips below the low of the Breakout candle (in this case we have to adjust for round number support) Entry = 112.98 Stop = 113.45 Risk = 47 pips PT = 3xR = 141 pips = 111.57 Second: a Pullback to the 60 Kejun Sen at 113.31 (turquise line on chart) This entry while providing better risk/reward decreases the probability of success. Entry: 113.31 Stop 113.45 Risk = 14 pips PT = 10xR = 140 = 111.91 ** The Blue line on the chart is the Daily Kejun Sen and represents a major Support/Resistance level
Short
by AGold54