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Wait for the Easy Set-ups and the purpose of Trading I often have traders ask me, how can I get alot of trades? And my response is that is the wrong question, the purpose of trading is to make Money, Period. It is, imho, to make as much money as you can in as few trades and in as little of time as possible. Although I have several methods of trading, the SS MA method, shown here is my absolute favorite. It has an 87% success rate with a healthy 3-1 RRR. That said, I often ask those same traders "If you could consistently make 6-12% per week but could only take 2 trades, would you do it?" The answers are surprising as again, imho, anybody that says anything but yes really needs to rethink why they are trading. You should not be trading for the excitement, you should not be trading just to hit buttons. You should be trading so you can sit on a beach with the cocktail of your choice in hand. to that end, I would implore you to come up with your best trading methodology and trade only that. As I have prominently posted between my monitors, as a reminder to myself "Wait for the easy set-ups and don't do anything stupid in the mean time" :)
Education
by AGold54
20
How I trade News with high probabilty and a Great RRR :) Trading news can often be a nightmare especially trying to trade at the time of release as brokers often widen their spreads and slip orders to the extreme of the spike. This is a high probability method with Great RRR As you can see the market spiked up on worse then expected AUD GDP news. then the market went into a consolidation, and this is key to finding great entries. After the market consolidated for at least 60 minutes, look for a support level for a buy and a resistance level for a Sell. Place a limit order at the support/resistance level with stop appropriate for the pair. (in this example I am trading GBPAUD - my fav, so I use a 20 pip stop) Place your profit target at 5x your stop. This gives you a Robust 5-1 RRR. let the trade unfold. If you have any questions, either place them in the comments or message me Hope this helps :) Allen
Education
by AGold54
6
When Not to TradeSometimes it is better not to trade. Today for me, was one of those days. I was extremely tired, which happens from time to time as I get up at 1:30 am my time to trade. This can lead to mistakes. Today's trade idea is a good example, although GBPAUD was in a bullish run and I was looking and posted an idea for a pullback trade, there was signs of a reversal. I believe if I was awake and thinking clearly, I would have seen these signs from the beginning. Fortunately, I was able to close my long trade for a small gain (+ 5 pips). The following is a list of indications that I missed because I was tired. First, The market had already pulled back and bounced off of my moving average, so it is less likely to happen again; Second, the Ma was flattening, as opposed to staying in an uptrend, which is never a good sign; Third, I missed that the market had hit the 60 min Senkou A, which can always be expected to provide resistance; Fourth, The market fails to hold bullish as evidenced by the long wicks. Moreover, This is a great indication that the market is getting ready to reverse and a great selling opportunity IMHO, Trading is hard enough without making avoidable mistakes. I hope this helps others Allen
Education
by AGold54
2
GBPUSD SS Short + 75 PIp Potential*Price is below the 60 and 15 KS. This will be a Type 1 trade if the market closes below the Daily KS at 1.30111. It has a High probability of success and good RRR. 2 Potential entries (it is one or the other, not both) Entry = CLOSE below the Daliy KS at 1.30311 Stop = ??? Risk = 30 pips Profit target = 1.2950 Reward = approx 75 Pips RRR = ??? ** remember Non-farm Payroll will be released at 8:30 am EST. which will directly effect this trade you will want to be out of it by then.
Short
by AGold54
GBPAUD SS Short + 105 pip PotentialPrice is below the Daily, 60 and 15 KS as well as the cloud. This is a Type 1 trade with a High probability and great RRR. 2 Potential entries: 1st Entry = 1.8413 (2 pips below the Daily KS) Stop = 1.8433 Risk = 20 pips Profit target = 1.8308( The projected daily low ) Reward = 105 pips RRR = 5-1 2nd Entry = 1.8371 (8 pips below the Asian low) Stop = 1.9401 Risk = 30 pips Profit target = 1.8308 ( The projected daily low ) Reward = 63 pips RRR = 2-1
Short
by AGold54
GBPAUD Long example of how I tradeWhen looking for trades, my purpose is simple: I look for High probability trades with good RRR (risk reward ratio) I consider a trade high probability if it has an 80%, or better, historical success rate. A good RRR (risk reward ratio) is 3-1 or better. meaning that we are risking $1 to make at least $3 Understand that by maintain a 3-1 RRR, even if I lose over 50% of the time, I will still make money. Combine that with High probability trades and your golden. That said, there are not a lot of trade opportunities that met this criteria everyday. So I am not the guy who is going to post alot of trades, most days I only take 1 trade. I risk 2% per trade,( because I have earned that right which is a different conversation), to make 6%. Generally, I will net 15-20% per week. I start with a strength and weakness anylasis from the prior day's trading and rank the currencies numerically. for example today "S GBP 5" means that GBP was ranked 5th while "W AUD 7" Aud was ranked 7th obviously GBP was stronger than Aud. So we start the day with a Buy bias. this is confirmed before I start trading, which is generally at the European open (currently 2am est). I then look at multi-frame analysis using Ichimoku Kinko Hyo concepts. Primarily the Kejun-Sen (KS). I look at the Daily the 60 and the 15 min Tf's. Ideally, price will be above/below the KS on all 3 tf's, but the Daily as in this example is not necessary. Moreover, we need price above/below the Ichimoku Cloud. Next is the Asian box, if the market has consolidated during the Asian session, as it often does, I will mark the high and low, creating a box. In the example above, we have the 60 KS (blue line), which is above the cloud at 1.82119. that is the bottom of the box as it is a place that found support during the Asian session. The Daily Senkou B, in this case provides the top of the box. Generally, the Daily Senkou's A and B, provide solid resistance or support. Putting it all together, in the above example, since price is above the 60 Ks, the 15 Ks and the cloud in the conformity with our directional bias, we have a Type 1 trade, which has an 87% success rate. these trades are Great!!! We have 2 potential buy entry points: 1st is a pullback to the bottom of the box at he 60 KS the 2nd is a breakout trade. However because in this example we are using the Daily Senkou B as the top of the box we need a close above it, not just penetration. As you can see the 2:45 candle closes above the Senkou B and we can enter a long trade. Using a 20 pip stop and a 60 pip profit target. This hits perfectly (what a great example) but seriously you can look back at my other trade idea's and see similar results . I hope this provides a general idea of what I am trying to do tradewise. feel free to hit me with any questions AGold 54
Education
by AGold54
6
Forex Watch EURO PAIR 20190423 by 9 Seasons Rainbow IndicatorEURO is a weak as a whole, especially to USD, CAD, JPY, and GBP. Euro Pairs being monitored: EURAUD , EURCAD , EURCHF , EURGBP , EURJPY , EURUSD Time Frame: 1H - 2D EURUSD: Bearish (Red) across most Time Frames EURCAD: Bearish (Red) on most Time Frames, Green on 1H, 85m, and White on 22H - wandering EURGBP: Keep on range, Bearish Divergence / Resistance on 170m (3H), Yellow EURCHF: Bullish (Green) across all Time Frames EURJPY: Strong Pull back (Red) into previous support area EURADU: Got valid support: Bull (Green) is filled on all Time frames between 1H and 11H, Bullish Divergence / Support on 680m (11H), Blue DISCLAIMER This is only a personal opinion and does NOT serve as investing advice NOR trading advice. Please make their own decisions, carefully assess risks and be responsible for your own investing and trading activities.
by go8686
Forex 9 Seasons Rainbow Indicator Watch: USD Pairs 20190423USD is strong as a whole. USDAUD: as mentioned in my last idea "Forex Divergence Watch: USD Pairs 20190419", Bullish Divergence (Blue) has turned out to Crazy Bought (Lime) Crazy Bought(Lime) in 1H, 85m, Bullish Run in high volatility. USDCAD: is breaking out the resistance. USD Pairs being monitored: USDAUD , USDCAD , USDCHF , USDGBP , USDJPY , USDEUR Time Frame: 1H - 2D DISCLAIMER This is only a personal opinion and does NOT serve as investing advice NOR trading advice. Please make their own decisions, carefully assess risks and be responsible for your own investing and trading activities.
by go8686