USDCAD H1 Retest Butterfly Level, To Short the Wedge breakdown??Some of you might be following my analysis on the USDCAD pair and just got stopped out from the last H4 Bearish Bat. However I am still very bearish for this pair on the long term.
In a few hours time we have some major news release on the CAD - Trade Balance, Interest Rate and Oil Inventories, which has major impact on this pair.
Two outcome I am expecting:
1. USDCAD broke all my Supply and Resistance levels and hit my Stop loss for my 2 months' long position trade and I exit with a small profit.
2. Price tumbles down further and challenge the 1.31-1.32 region again.
I am in favor of the 2nd outcome due to the fact that USDCAD appreciated close to 250pips over 2days and it is unlikely to continue moving up, at the very least a pullback before going higher. Let's say I am right on this, I will be looking to add on my short positions and take partial profits and let the rest aim for longer targets.
Price is now resisted at my Supply Level, Resistance Level and early Butterfly Pattern short level, at the same time it formed a Wedge on the way up. To wait for the break downwards and enter sell order on the 0.618 pullback. The empty space in the red circle shows where price is likely to go after a rapid upward move.
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Multipletimeframe
USDCAD H4 Bearish Bat Pattern Another clean setup on the USDCAD pair. This time we have the Bearish Bat Pattern completing at 1.3318 price level, which I am interested to add on to my existing long term position short.
Entry price: 1.3318
SL: 30pips above Point X
TP1 and TP2 as shown on chart
Extended targets at the completion of the Bullish Bat Pattern.
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AUDUSD Long Multiple TF AnalysisTechnical Analysis:
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* Weekly Fake Breakout to downside —> Bullish Pinbar
* Daily support zone
* Daily IB since 8 days -> Fake breakout
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* 4H Pinbar with retest breakout falling trendline
* 38er Retracement Fibo on 4H and daily last bullish move
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* 1H Divergence building up, break to the upside (triangle)
* —> 4H/1H/15m/5min/1min Pinbar
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* Huge 1min RSI divergence
* —> 1min Pinbar @ 0,618er Extension & Retest falling trendline
Two more critical levels for BTC todayThe 200 Exponential Moving Average (4 hourly) and 100 Moving Average (Daily) have BTC tightly in their grasp. Tell me below: which way do you believe we will break?
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This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
BTC converging between 1h 50MA and daily 100MAFor the past 48 hours BTC has been held down tightly by the 1h 50 Moving Average (green line), but has also found strong support against the daily 100 Moving Average (grey line).
With the 1h 50MA closing in fast, BTC will soon be forced to make a decision one way or the other.
Try my unique multi-timeframe moving average indicator to view this on your chart - link below.
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The importance of Moving Averages across multiple time framesToday's drop started when BTC was rejected by the 1 hour 50MA, but then turned on a dime once it hit the daily 200MA. So why switch between a dozen views when they can all come to you? I've put together this free indicator which combines the 50, 100 and 200 MA for the 1 hour, 2 hour, 4 hour and 1 day period... all at the same time in the 1 hour chart - a powerful upgrade. Try the link below to see what it can do for you.
Harmonics Patterns on USDCADSome of my trading counterparts and colleagues asked me why I am so into USDCAD recently and still holding on to my trade since I shorted this pair during Xmas 2018 on a Weekly Bearish Bat pattern completion. So I decided to share this education segment to the trading community on some insights of my trading strategies.
Take a look at my chart on the USDCAD H4 timeframe. I have tried my level best to scale the chart so that all my analysis to identify Harmonic Patterns are still visible to viewers. Can you spot how many patterns are there? There is a potential buy opportunity now as well since H4 Bat is completed.
For Harmonic Pattern traders, we know that each pattern completes at Point D, regardless whether they are Bullish or Bearish patterns. Some of the harmonics patterns that I use:
1) Bat
2) Gartley / Deep Gartley
3) Butterfly
4) Shark
5) Crab / Deep Crab
6) 5-0
I also combine other strategies I have learned such as Supply & Demand, Structure Trading, Candlestick Analysis, and most importantly Multiple Timeframe Analysis. Back to the trade I am currently in, at the moment it is running 400+ pips of profit, closing in to 500pips while my TP1 level is at 540pips. This is my big timeframe trade and I know USDCAD has huge potential to go even lower. While having this thought, what else can I do:
- do short selling on this pair on smaller timeframes to build up my position.
- when a bullish Harmonics Pattern emerges and it fits all my trade filters, long the pair and aim for conservative targets (I am on long term bearish-ness for the pair).
- move my stop loss gradually each time a major support level is broken to lock in my profits, you dont want to give back the profits to the market!
- check my indicators on big time frame for trend reversal to determine if I should take profit early.
After trading for some years now, an important lesson I want to share with you is to stick to the few strategies that has been proven profitable over a series of back-testing. I am fortunate to learn the AUTHENTIC way to trade Harmonics Patterns and hence sharpen my trading skill dramatically. Sure there are many other trading strategies that are also profitable, however let us not go into learning everything there is to offer out there, instead focus on being a consistent and profitable trader. I always think back the very reason why I come into the trading scene about 5-6 years ago - To profit from the financial markets and free up time and life choices to pursue the more important things in life such as quality family time. I am glad that things are working out slowly for me, what about you?
Thank you for reading, one final take away I like my readers to have - stay focus on your life goals and stick to your trading plan/rules.
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LTCUSD - Short breakout setup - 1HR Litecoin failed to follow through on the bullish breakout, just like bitcoin. And again just like bitcoin, we’re stuck between 2 MTFA levels: 45.2 and 40.8.
Selling pressure has taken control as the CMF has turned negative, and the indicator has plotted a short setup. In this case I’m ignoring the breakout level shown by the indicator, but placing the entry order below the MTFA support.
The target is the next MTFA level at 33.9, take partial profits here and tighten the stop.
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Stay calm, and happy trading!
SPX Bullish breakout setup - 1HR
All higher timeframes are in bullish territory, except the weekly which is consolidating, so everything is pointing bullish.
The 1 Hour chart as well as the daily chart are on bullish setups, which gives me a high probability that if the hourly chart triggers, the daily will follow through. I expect to blow through the first two resistance level, but we’ll have to wait and see.
The initial stop seems large, but will move up when the trade is triggered. Watch for overextension signals to tighten the stop.
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Bitcoin: To Bart or not to Bart?The last huge bitcoin move has left the whole space climbing on rockets again, and usually that indicates that longs will get rekt. Will this time be different?
On the hourly chart (above) you can see price consolidating into the kumo after the last move. If there was enough momentum behind this move to continue the bullish trend I feel the follow through would have happened already: this looks more and more like another bart-move with his right cheek to form anytime now (or perhaps it will take a few days of sideways bleeding). The daily and weekly charts are still in bearish territory, and the hourly is about to move into consolidation territory,
Not very much more useful to say about this, it can go up, but looks more likely to go down. There’s no trade setup for either direction yet.
Price will have to hold the MTFA support at 3520 to remain in a bullish posture, if not I will start looking at short setups on this timeframe.
If you are trading this indicator, the long would be entered at 3425, and you should be out of this trade already.
4HR
The 4HR chart is on bullish setup, but again, my confidence in this setup triggering a trade is not high. If we remain stuck above the MTFA support at 3520 for a long enough time, the bullish setup will become more likely again. But for now I expect the bart-move to complete itself, and a brutal drop down to be the more likely outcome.
Daily
The daily chart puts the upswing in perspective, and shows that all still is bearish. However, there is a bullish case to be made. If we do get a bullish move, and break above the kumo on daily chart, there is a chance we may reach the 5000 level. But lets not get ahead of ourselves here..
Conclusion
If you didn;t get in on the hourly breakout trade, there’s no reason to chase the long at this moment. Wait for price to figure out where it wants to go: if the support breaks, look for 1HR short setups targeting the next MTFA support at 3390, and probably lower.
If the daily territory changes to bullish look for hourly long setups.
If any of those happen, you will hear from me again…
Until then, happy trading, and stay calm!
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USDINR- Bull Breakout Triggered- 4HR
Bullish Breakout trade on the 4 Hr chart triggered. Looking to reach the next MTF levels 72.370 and 73.08 to take profits. As always, use the green dots as a trailing stop and look for overextension signals from the indicator
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USDMXN- Bull Breakout Setup - 4HR
Long Breakout Setup on the 4Hr chart. MTF support holding which gives a breakout a high probability of triggering. Targeting 20.269 to take profit, but as always trail the stop loss with the green dots as the trade develops and watch for overextension signals
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USDJPY- Bull Breakout Setup - 4HR
Long Breakout Setup on the 4Hr chart. MTF support formed on the last leg up, which is a good sign. If the trade is triggered, I’m looking for it to reach 112.725, as always, trail the stop with the green dots and watch for the indicator overextension signals
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CHFJPY Long Setup - 4HR Price has been consolidating, failing to breakout either way. After the last bearish setup failed to follow through, I’m looking for a bullish entry. Target is the first MTF level at 112.01, as always: trail the stop with the green dots and watch for the indicators overextension signals
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XCUUSD Copper - Bull Breakout Setup - DailyBullish breakout setup on the Daily chart for Copper.Price has been consolidating and failed to follow through on the last bearish setup, so the likelihood of it going bullish is larger. MTF support (Red cross) was formed on the most recent leg upwards, which is also a good sign, and we’re currently at MTF resistance. If this breaks look to enter long at the breakout of 2.83465. Use the green dots to trail as stoploss.
The next MTF level on the daily chart is at 3.15933, and thats where I’m looking to exit, but as always, trail the stop as the trade develops and watch for overextension signals to possibly tighten the stop,
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EURJPY Homerun trade + 240 pip potentialthe Monthly and Daily are bearish
and this pair has been banging up against the 125.23 level all week
IMHO, this is ready to explode to the downside.
The Cloud is thin and price has established below the 60 Kejun Sen
Entry = 125.23
Stop = 125.43
Risk = 20 pips
Profit target = 122.80 (the Daily Kejun Sen)
Reward = +243 pips
RRR = 12 -1
GOLD Daily Bearish BatHappy New Year 2019 Trading View Community! My first post for this year and like to share this great setup I found on Gold.
Gold had a good bull run since Nov 2018 and finally reached an area where I am interested to look for selling opportunity.
On the Weekly time frame, we can see price action doing a consolidation between about 1050-1400 which tells me that price is near the top of the consolidation range and may have reached an exhaustion point and ready to turn.
Lower to Daily time frame where i execute my trade plan, I found more supporting reasons to sell:
1) a clean Harmonics Bearish Bat setup that completes at about 1307
2) price is within my sell area marked by the grey area
3) at resistance level
4) strong confluences with previous highs and lows price points
5) RSI at or near oversold levels
Here is my trade plan:
Entry: 1307
Stop Loss: 1343.40 (-36.60)
TP1: 1254 (+47) (to bounce off previous Bat Pattern)
Extended TP: 1219.50, 1186.80
Once price exits and close below my sell area, I will shift stop loss to entry to reduce my exposure.
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To all traders, may all your trades be green :)
GBPAUD H4 Bearish BatFound this short opportunity in the middle of the Daily Trend Channel, not looking to set target all the way to the trend lines.
Healthy Risk-Reward of about 2.5x for target level, going for a single target trade.
For Set & Forget traders,
Entry: 1.8243
SL: 1.8336 (-93pips)
TP: 1.8013 (+230pips)
For conservative traders, look for confirmation candles before engaging the trade.
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GBPJPY Pullback trade +195 pip PotentialEven though GBP has been dominating for over a week now, it is, imho,over extended
and ripe for a pullback.
The Monthly and Daily are still, despite it's recent strength, still bearish
Resistance has formed at 143.55 and has been rejected once (double top)
The Resistance level is in close proximity to the Daily Senkou A, which is
a very strong Resistance level.
The RSI is Overbought and descending.
Entry can be had on a retest of the 143.55 level or a candle formation rejected at that level
or you can wait to see if the Daily Senkou A is tested.
Entry = 143.55
Stop = 143.95
Risk = 40 pips
Profit Target = 141.60 (the 60 Senkou A)**
Reward = +195 pips
RRR = 4.8 - 1
** it should be noted that the future cloud is ascending and the profit target
will have to adjusted to where price meets it.