More Gas in the Tank? Eurusd 🌬️If we are trading with the trend then it would be wise of us to continue to look for short setups. However, Price has plunged to the downside plenty and it is reasonable to ask when will we see a correction. My thoughts are that we see a dip early in the week. Buyers eventually show up around our weekly level 1.06654 and we continue up for the rest of the week or consolidate after liquidating late shorts. The debt ceiling controversy may be used as an excuse to pump risk assets. It would also provide a nice opportunity for the dollar to pullback. Alot of talks about the dollar being over-extended may see a last and final burst to liquidate any dollar shorts at these level's. After that the dollar may then ease off the highs and pull down for the rest of the week. (Meanwhile EurUsd would go up) A double bottom looks like it may be forming on the 4Hr and so we may an increase on Eurusd sooner rather than later.
Anything may happen and so we must follow the processes we have set in place to protect ourselves. Expect nothing from the market and it cannot dissapoint you. There is always another day to trade your setup as there is always another week to execute your strategy.
Trading Talk: The way in which I execute my two setups during NY session are as follows.
Setup 1: Outline the specific zone you would like to execute this setup. Set your alert(s)
Setup 2: Pick your current bullish or bearish bias and write it on the chart.
I only allow myself up to 15 Trades / Day
But I will not lose more than the Percentage equivalent of 2 Losing trades.
Beforehand my risk management strategy was only as good as my skill. But Sometimes to a fault.
Now my risk management strategy is as good as my Preparation. And this will encourage only the higher quality setups.
Have a good trading week.
Multitimeframeanalysis
Eurusd Longs " Where art thou ? " 🔭As Bank Holiday Trading comes to a close, we can observe another Bearish Daily candle. The Eur is weak through the holiday trading and the U.S dollar advance is yet to give in. The dollar index is a little bit better than B.E. on the day. For Eurusd :
- Watch 1.07116 4Hr Support zone closely. A Strong 4Hr candle closure rejecting this level may send us quickly back up to 4Hr resistance Zone 1.074 and next we may retest our most recent Daily Level ( Daily S/R Zone 1.076 )
- A touch into our 1.0665 Weekly Zone In my opinion is very likely and will coincide with the 6 Red folder news releases we have this week.
- We have alot of news this week and we must be aware during our trading
- Bull targets for the week include 1.08125 Daily Resistance Level
- Bear Targets for this week include a touch into 1.06245 Daily Support Level
No trading today since it is a bank holiday. Less opportunity in a low volume market. At least when it comes to the parameters of my trading plan.
Safe Trading.
Jobs Data 🏗️ / Weekly Level 1.06643 Eurusd Jobs Data was expected to ease over the prior period as the U.S. may have had a smaller amount of job opportunties for it's citizens during the month of May. It turns that the U.S. had more about 160,000 more job openings than was expected. So this is positive for a few reasons
- Data was expected to ease over the prior period but we didn't ease and instead the U.S. gained job opportunities during May.
- Data was better than expected by a significant margin when compared to previous job openings data releases.
This is Optimistic for the U.S. Economy. The impact of the News on price action has initially gone down and dropped from our 4Hr S/R level at 1.07018
Moving Forward I anticipate consolidation or a retracement in price while we hold above 1.06643.
If we continue our descent and USD news turns out to be strong enough, our next target is 1.06235. After that, and with NFP data on friday, we may continue to drop to 1.05435.
I took a buy at our weekly level 1.0665 when price creased the initial low created during the first 1 minute of news. I have since been stopped out by a small margin before price retraced in my anticipated direction but would take the trade once more given the chance.
Weekly Level's are quite strong area's on the chart. Stronger than Daily Level's! They Hold quite frequently as we can observe from the trading earlier in the day. 2 Hours after London open was when we initially tapped into 1.06643 Weekly Level. It coincided with the new 4Hr candle and explains why you can observe no bottom wick on the previous 4Hr candle. Big Players trading on the Higher timeframes are supporting a demand area here. As a scalper I have them to help with my intra-day activities.
S&P500 - WEEKLY PREVIEW | KW03 |In today's article, we will look at the *S&P500* and its relevant markers
for the coming week.
> KW 03 = 16.01. - 20.01.
> The marks should serve you as orientation for your own analysis.
> The "VIOLET" marked ZONES are TARGET RANGES - for possible trades.
! NOTE !
If financial events take place, there is a high probability that through market maker manipulation, the given marks are not respected .
> Every Monday, I therefore upload a FX event overview, the respective week, which gives you an insight of the "turbulent" days and times.
The cover picture shows an example of a possible trade .
> This is one of many possible setups and is not alone in the room.
ASSESSMENT
This week, the S&P500 will, with great probability, come up against a strong resistance.
As can be seen quite nicely from the daily perspective, a downtrend line resistance area is coming towards it. (Red lines + Red colored area).
> In addition, important Fibonacci levels and a 4-hour SUPPLY zone are untouched, which for a further upswing, must first be overcome.
> My target range for the upward movement is - 4,040 - 4,060 points - in this zone, strong resistance should be expected at the latest.
> Of course, this forecast must be supported by the USD (DXY), which would be the driver for a possible sell-off in the S&P500.
POSSIBLE MARKET SCENARIOS
> THESIS 1:
On Monday, we directly see a strong USD = S&P500 immediately sells off.
> THESIS 2:
On Monday, we continue to see a weakening USD = S&P500 will run into my "target range" and then bounce back.
> THESIS 3:
On Monday, we see by the new data of W2, another down sell in USD = S&P500 will run into my "target area", conquer it and run up to further spheres.
OUTZOOMED
"4 HOURS + DAY - INTERVAL"
"1 HOUR + 4 HOUR - INTERVAL"
ZOOMED IN
"4 HOURS + DAY - INTERVAL"
"1 HOUR + 4 HOUR - INTERVAL"
POSSIBLE SCENARIES
„4 HOUR – INTERVAL“
> Let's share our perspectives and views in the comments.
> Sharing your point of view allows each of us to improve.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review.
Thank you and happy trading!
ZIEL IST DIE AUTARKIE | THE GOAL IS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
Does "News" Impact Price Behavior? 🐒We can Observe that After the 1st Quarter of the Year, January-March the price of Eurusd has increased. Now As we near the middle of the second quarter, I can't help but visualize a Breakout.
Price is currently sitting at 1.102. So far price has respected the Weekly Level at 1.106. The High for the first quarter was 1.103. We have now spent quite a bit of time at these extreme prices. I can often observe price using News//Data Releases on Lower time frames as a boost. A Boost of momentum in the preceding direction.
I can observe 3 Potential News//Data Releases causing and becoming a Catalyst to leave a Large Trading Range.
1. NFP
2. CPI
3. FOMC Interest Rates.
Will FOMC provide the Volume?
Do we have enough Liquidity?
Or may price dip from here back to our 1.086 Weekly S/R Zone before increasing any further?
My Bias is Bullish moving into FOMC. Safe Trading Everyone.
Not Financial Advice. Educational Purposes Only.
HTF - GOLD - HAS LOST ITS SHINE?My analysis today deals with how the further course of our most popular precious metal "GOLD / XAU" could look like.
For this I have carried out a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month - week - day) and thus makes the big picture visible.
Normally, all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing.
> We traders know that nobody can predict the future, and that's exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations.
> If the DXY should rise again, it means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets.
> This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture.
> I have explained in detail which levels are RELEVANT in the following pages. .
table of contents
1st part = INTRODUCTION
2nd part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
= Monthly - Time frame
= Weekly - Time frame
= Dayly - Time frame
3rd part = CONCLUSION
PART ONE
"INTRODUCTION"
After "XAU/USD" formed a double top between 2020-2022, a strong sell-off has been unleashed thereafter.
> This sell-off paused in October this year to test the strength of it.
> With a subsequent bullish monthly candle, many retail investors now feel on the safe side that new highs will be reached.
> Here I do not want to take away the joy, but the big picture does not suggest anything like that.
> Once you look at the DXY (USD index) on the higher timeframes, the following sell-off in gold is "indirectly" confirmed.
(My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes.)
GOLD SAFE HARBOUR .
If you follow popular wisdom, GOLD is classified as a safe and reliable haven.
SPEAKING LIKE ...
> "All that glitters is not gold."
> "Talk is silver, silence is gold."
> "Much gold, much future."
That, the precious metal gold got such a high value awarded - HAD - its reasons.
> Inflation protection and security - are definitely the two most associated words with this precious metal.
Unfortunately, at the latest, since the year 2021, this no longer seems to apply.
> If one compares the loss of inflation and the gain in value of gold, a significant gap can be seen, at which there can no longer be any talk of "inflation compensation".
> Gold will therefore no longer live up to its reputation and a rethinking of its value will have to take place in the future.
SECOND PART
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
For the analysis of the higher time levels, I proceed according to the onion-skin principle.
> MONTH - level > WEEK - level > DAY - level
These are divided into
> SUMMARY > CHARTS
The charts are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way.
1st MONTH – Time frame
SUMMARY
The trend channel plotted on the chart formed in March|2007 and has since maintained its position as a legitimate trend channel. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market.
> Price is in the area below the mean line and had last touched the channel in 2018.
> September|2020 the price ran into the mid-line but was not strong enough. This becomes very clear when looking at the moving away middle line despite the "double top".
> The trend arc is another resistance, which should be taken into account for a future downward movement.
If we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can look at two zones in the chart.
> The "SUPPLY" zone is VERY STRONG because it is a RBD (Rally Base Drop).
> The "DEMAND" zone is VERY WEAK, as it is a DBD (Drop-Base-Drop).
> If we get another rise in the DXY, the drawn "DEMAND" zone will break and the sell-off will continue.
The Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation, and have been proved in past moves (last decades) .
> Should the price rise even further, FIB (1) will serve as a Strong Resistance Zone, although the "FIB Zone = 0.75-0.88 - is the Strongest Resistance. (1)
> If the sell-off continues, FIB (2) cannot do much in the monthly chart, but if necessary there will be a reaction on the "smaller" time levels.
> The FIB (3) = 1.618 level, will resemble a large magnet and in combination with the FIB (4), will trigger a large resistance reaction in the market.
Past highs and lows usually serve as resistance / support, of which we have three.
> HIGH | 08/20 - Already showed a reaction (double top).
> HIGH | 09/11 - Point of Control
> LOW | 03/21 - Broken and recaptured
Points and levels of interest are in front of us, which have played a strong role for the market since 2011 .
> The most significant resistance, represents the plotted - POI (1800 USD), which is still contested at the time of this analysis.
> The other POIs have non-negligible resistance and support characteristics and should be kept in mind.
CHARTS
XAU - Overall picture
XAU - Trend lines
XAU - Supply & Demand ZONES + Market Structure Break
XAU - Fibonacci
XAU - POI
ATTENTION
In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. .
2nd WEEK – Time frame
SUMMARY
In addition to the already mentioned trend channel, now three more become visible, which may have escaped the one or the other.
> The "Purple" trend channel formed at the same time as its big brother (monthly channel) and thus represents a major significance for the market.
We are at the middle line of the channel and the market seems to have used it as support.
> The "Turquoise" trend channel accompanies us since the last high and has a big say with its many interactions.
My guess is that its resistance line will decide whether the sell-off will continue or be broken with confirmation.
> The "Earth-colored" trend channel is a small sideways accumulation and accompanies us in this area.
Currently, the price has fought its way back into the channel, confirmed it and is now targeting the top of the sideways channel.
> The "Orange colored" trend line , has been respected since 2018, 07|2022 broken.
The price suggests that the trend line is approaching for a final retest.
The additional "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones join the two existing ones and remain untouched.
As additional Fibonacci additions, we have:
> The 0.88 FIB (1), combined with the levels from the FIB (2). This represents with the 0.88 levels from FIB (2) - two very relevant resistance ranges.
> FIB (3) is only valid if the price does not rise further and therefore the input values do not change. Should this be the case, the 0.786 + 0.88 area is the most important to watch out for.
CHARTS
XAU - Overall picture
XAU - Overall picture + Month
XAU - Trend Channels + Trend Lines
XAU - Supply & Demand ZONES
XAU - Fibonacci
ATTENTION
In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. .
3rd DAY – Time frame
SUMMARY
The chart shows a falling triangle which has been broken .
> As a result, the price has confirmed this break, with a close at the break point.
> At this time level, there will be a sell-off, especially if the DXY rises.
To give a little comment on the "Supply & Demand" zones:
> The upper two "SUPPLY" zones are definitely very strong. 1800 + 1980.
> The bottom "DEMAND" zone is very strong, as it is a DBR (Drop-Base-Rally) zone. (ca. 1640 - ca. 1615)
> The "DEMAND" zones in between are incidental, will trigger small reactions on the lower time frames, but nothing significant. (ca. 1760 - ca. 1660)
CHARTS
XAU - Overall picture + Month + Week
XAU - Supply & Demand ZONES + Trend Lines
THIRD PART
CONCLUSION
"The central banks, themselves, are behind the gold price manipulation. What should you get out of it?"
Run this question through your head and let me know in the comments what you think is more likely.
> Another sell-off or a positive gold price for now?
In summary, based on technical analysis, there are a few reasons for a weak GOLD price .
> If you look at the area between 1,950 USD - 1,840 USD, it almost seems like an arm guarding the upper levels.
> To bring down this defense, I think, needs more momentum than what we have and are getting right now. (Christmas, New Year, Chinese New Year)
For this reason, I expect a weak gold rate and a strong USD, and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets.
> Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT .
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea.
Thank you and happy trading!
GOLD (XAU/USD): a minimalistic multi-timeframe illustrationTaking a look at the Monthly-timeframe graph, we might observe that the price has heavily rejected the major level of resistance that has been highlighted.
Zooming into the Weekly Timeframe, it can be inferred that the price is currently sitting on a previous region of resistance now acting as support. If the key level we are currently sitting on gets penetrated, expect a bloodbath.
The bearish price build-up along with a strong USD give us enough confidence that the ongoing downtrend might continue. In case things play out in accordance with our theory and game-plan, we will be closely monitoring the price action for entering short positions and aiming for the price region market on the graphic.
USD / CHF – ANALYSIS OF THE BIG PICTUREMy analysis today deals with how the further course of our most popular forex pair "USD / CHF" could look.
> The technical analysis and selected indicators, confirm the thesis of an imminent rise.
= Why, that I explain after the introduction.
The DXY / USD has a non-negligible impact on USD / CHF, as the whole economy depends on its behavior, and it directly competes in composition.
> Meanwhile, this seems to take a run-up, for a final upswing, which could put the currency pair under massive selling pressure.
> Regardless of these selling pressures coming from the USD, USD / CHF has arrived at a very strong support, which suggests a rising price.
In the following, the analysis goes into detail, so that the significant levels and areas are known to you.
For this purpose, I have performed a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month & week) and thus makes the big picture visible.
Normally all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing.
> We traders know that no one can predict the future, and that is exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations.
> If the DXY should rise again, that means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets.
> This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture.
> Which levels are RELEVANT, I have explained in detail in the following pages.
Table of contents
1st part = INTRODUCTION
2nd part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
= Monthly - Time frame
= Weekly - Time frame
3rd part = CONCLUSION
PART ONE
"INTRODUCTION"
After "USD/CHF" formed a top at USD 1.015 in October|2022, a sharp sell-off has been unleashed thereafter.
> This sell-off continued until the beginning of February, where we encountered serious support for the first time.
> The sell-off was fueled by its base currency, the USD, which also experienced a sell-off.
> Since the USD, showed signs of a possible bottom, this was reflected in the pair under consideration.
> In recent weeks, we have seen an increasingly weaker sell-off, which I believe suggests a rise.
= We have worked off the HTF Fibonacci - 0.786 - and saw a strong reaction.
= The volume profile of the last 2-years, supports the current bottom with a strong area.
= The "DAILY" - MACD + RSI - both show divergences, which further strengthens the rise thesis.
> Once you look at the DXY (USD index) at the higher time levels, the further sell-off in the traditional markets becomes even more likely.
(My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes).
SECOND PART
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
For the analysis of the higher time levels, I proceed according to the onion-skin principle.
> MONTH - level > WEEK - level > DAY - level
These are divided into
> SUMMARY > CHARTS
The charts are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way.
(This also refers to Fibonacci levels.)
1st MONTH – Time frame
SUMMARY
The trend channel shown in the chart, in turquoise, was formed since 1985 and has been able to maintain itself as a legitimate trend channel since then. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market.
> The share price is at the decade-old resistance line and had challenged it over the past months.
The trend channel shown in the chart, in earth color, formed since 2008 and directed the sideways movement that has existed since then.
> The price is between the middle and support line of the channel.
The trend lines shown in the chart, in purple, formed in the 80s and turned out to be excellent resistance or support areas.
> The price bounced the last time in 2015, which was reflected in an extreme reaction.
The trend lines drawn in the chart, in earth color, formed in the 90s and turned out to be excellent resistance or support areas.
> The price bounced the last time in 2018, which was reflected in an extreme reaction.
If we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can look at four "DEMAND" + "SUPPLY" zones on the chart.
> The "DEMAND" zone 1, is STRONG = followed a Strong movement.
> The "DEMAND" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement.
> The "SUPPLY" zone 1, is STRONG = followed a strong movement.
> The "SUPPLY" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement.
The Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation, and have been taken into account in past movements (last decades).
> FIB 1 | will serve as a very strong resistance should the price attempt another run up.
> FIB 2 | are the possible targets that come into play in the event of a further sell-off. (LIGHTLY weighted)
> FIB 3 | are the possible targets that come into play on another sell-off. (MEDIUM weighted)
> FIB 4 | are the possible targets that come into play in the event of a further sell-off. (STRONG weighted)
Some levels of interest are in front of us, which in the last months + years, played a strong role for the market.
> The currently most relevant - POIs are | 0.90 & 0.95 | already represented an important brand since the year 2011 and thus currently take a very strong role.
> The other POIs are by no means to be neglected and will play a role for the price development in the coming days, weeks and months. (Therefore, take your time and transfer the ones that are relevant for you into your chart).
OVERVIEW
CURRENTLY RELEVANT
CHARTS
Overall picture without POIs + without FIBONACCI
Overall picture without POIs
Overall picture without FIBONACCI
ATTENTION
In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. .
2nd WEEK – Time frame
SUMMARY
Besides the already mentioned trend channels + trend lines, others become visible.
> These have caused reactions in the chart in the past and should therefore be kept in mind.
The monthly "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones are joined by others from the weekly view that coincide with other resistance / support elements.
> The "DEMAND" zone 1, is MEDIUM STRONG = followed a Strong movement + combination with Monthly "DEMAND" zone 1.
> The "SUPPLY" zones 1, is WEAK = followed a weak movement.
> The "SUPPLY" zones 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement + combination with Monthly "SUPPLY" zone 1.
As further Fibonacci additions, we have two more elements:
> Both newly drawn elements can be combined with the previously mentioned elements.
Lastly, I would like to draw your attention to the "MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK":
> These represent relevant resistance areas and reinforce the "TARGET ZONE 1".
CHARTS
Overall picture
Overall picture without FIBONACCI
Overall picture with TARGET ZONES
THIRD PART
CONCLUSION
"The market is always right."
As far as forecasts and analyses are concerned, everyone gives free rein to their opinion.
> Depending on the analyst's past success, he or she is believed to a greater or lesser extent, but only one can always be right.
In summary, based on technical analysis, there are strong reasons for a rising USD/CHF rate.
> Since the price top in October|2022 - the monthly candles have been dominated by bearish.
> A possible break of the support elements is not impossible, but rather unlikely.
> The divergences in the daily RSI + MACD, suggest a bullish movement.
For this reason, I expect a strong USD/CHF exchange rate and a strong USD and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets.
> Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = LONG.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea.
Thank you and happy trading!
ZIEL IST DIE AUTARKIE | THE GOAL IS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
USD / JPY – A REBOUND BEFORE FURTHER CORRECTION?My analysis today deals with how the further course of our popular forex pair "USD / JPY" could look like.
> The technical analysis and selected indicators, confirm the thesis of an imminent correction.
= Why, that I explain after the introduction.
The DXY / USD has a non-negligible impact on USD / JPY, as the whole economy depends on its behavior.
> Meanwhile, this seems to take run-up, for a final upswing, which could bring the precious metal under massive selling pressure.
> Regardless of these selling pressures coming from the USD, SILVER has been somewhat caught at a very strong resistance, which foreshadows a falling price.
In the following, the analysis goes into detail, so that the significant levels and areas are known to you.
For this purpose, I have performed a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month & week) and thus makes the big picture visible.
Normally all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing.
> We traders know that no one can predict the future, and that is exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations.
> If the DXY should rise again, that means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets.
> This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture.
> Which levels are RELEVANT, I have explained in detail in the following pages.
Table of contents
1st part = INTRODUCTION
2nd part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
= Monthly - Time frame
= Weekly - Time frame
3rd part = CONCLUSION
PART ONE
"INTRODUCTION"
After the "USD/JPY" formed a top at USD 152 in October|2022, a sharp sell-off has been unleashed thereafter.
> This sell-off extended until today and could have reached its end.
> By could, I mean that there is still room to correct here. The correction can potentially run to 124 USD, where we would encounter a sideways channel. This showed its effect since 1987 and would be a strong support.
> The Fibonacci tool confirms us the possible end of the correction, by successfully working through the "golden pocket" (0.618 + 0.65 FIB)
= In addition to the sideways channel just mentioned, we are at the center line, of another channel, which led the previous upward movement since the year 2021.
> The downward movement is in a downward channel on the smaller time units (daily >) since December|2022 and shows a strong divergence in the daily MACD, which indicates a temporary end of the correction.
> Once you look at the DXY (USD index) at the higher time levels, the further sell-off in the traditional markets becomes even more likely.
(My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes).
SECOND PART
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
For the analysis of the higher time levels, I proceed according to the onion-skin principle.
> MONTH - level > WEEK - level > DAY - level
These are divided into
> SUMMARY > CHARTS
The charts are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way.
(This also refers to Fibonacci levels.)
1st MONTH – Time frame
SUMMARY
The trend channel shown in the chart, in turquoise, formed since 2012 and has since maintained its position as a legitimate trend channel. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market.
> The price is in the area below the mid-trend line and did not have enough momentum to recapture it when it broke through.
The sideways trend channel shown in the chart, in purple, formed since 1987 and represented strong resistance and support areas on the higher time units.
> The price is above the channel and could encounter it for the first time at 124 USD.
> Should the price touch the level, I expect a strong reaction, in the opposite direction.
The trend lines drawn in the chart, in gold, formed in 1990 + 1995 and turned out to be very strong resistance or support areas.
> The price bounced twice in the recent upward movement and is meanwhile moving towards the lower trendline.
> In addition, we have the blue resistance line, which has been intact since the 80s, but is very unlikely to come into play for the time being.
If we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can look at three "DEMAND" + "SUPPLY" zones on the chart.
> The "DEMAND" zone 1, is VERY WEAK = followed a weak movement + previous month tested.
> The "DEMAND" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a strong movement + has not been tested by the price so far.
> The "SUPPLY" zone 1, is VERY STRONG = followed by a Strong sell-off.
The Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation, and have been taken into account in past movements (last decades).
> FIB 1 | will serve as resistance should the price attempt another sell-off run.
> FIB 2 | are the support areas, for a very strong sell-off.
> FIB 3 | are the possible targets, which would be possible in a very strong sell-off.
> FIB 3 | are the final upside targets, which would come into play in case of a bounce.
The past highs and lows usually serve as resistance/support, one of which we have.
> HIGHER HIGH | 1990
> OLD BROKEN HIGH | 1998
> OLD HIGHER HIGH | 2015
Some levels of interest are before us, which in the last years + decades, played a strong role for the market.
> The currently most relevant - POI (126 USD) - represents an important mark already since the year 1988 and thus currently occupies a very strong support position.
> The future most relevant - POI (135 USD) - represents, like the current POI, an important mark since the year 1987 and will thus occupy a very strong resistance position.
> The other POIs are by no means negligible and will play a role in the price development in the coming days, weeks and months. (Therefore, take your time and transfer the ones that are relevant for you into your chart).
OVERVIEW
CURRENT RELEVANT
CHARTS
Overall picture without POIs + without FIBONACCI
Overall picture without POIs
Overall picture without FIBONACCI
ATTENTION
In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. .
2nd WEEK – Time frame
SUMMARY
Besides the already mentioned trend channel + trend lines, another trend channel becomes visible.
> This led the previous upward movement and already served as a support zone against the sell-off.
The monthly "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones are joined by others from the weekly view that coincide with other resistance / support elements.
> The "DEMAND" zone 1, is VERY WEAK = followed a Weak move + previous week already tested.
> The "DEMAND" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a Strong movement + has not been tested by the price so far.
> The "SUPPLY" zone 1, is VERY STRONG = followed a strong sell-off.
Smaller time units highs and lows join, the previously named.
> OLD HIGHER LOW | 05/2022
> OLD BROKEN HIGHER LOW [08/2022
CHARTS
Overall picture
Overall picture without FIBONACCI
THIRD PART
CONCLUSION
"Nothing is more expensive than what you get for free."
This Japanese proverb caught my eye and reminded me of all the lessons learned, which unexpectedly entered my life.
> They materialized through people, animals or other encounters, and to this day they represent the greatest value in my life.
> I refer to it, because everyone in this fast-moving time, usually overlooks / does not consciously perceive the most important moments and lessons.
In summary, based on technical analysis, there are reasons for a rising "USD / JPY" rate.
> Since the price top in October|2022 - the monthly candles were dominated by bearish.
> That this pattern is broken is possible, but as noted in the introduction, there are outstanding "key areas", which advocate a further sell-off.
> The divergence in the daily MACD, suggests a bullish move.
> The USD could get a strong impulse, which would allow a bullish move in this pair.
For this reason, I assume a strong "USD/JPY" rate + a weak JPY and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets.
> Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = LONG .
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea.
Thank you and happy trading!
ZIEL IST DIE AUTARKIE | THE GOAL IS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
Bitcoin is Creating Lower Highs but the Lows are Equal 🕵️Bitcoin is rejecting Higher Prices and creating Lower Highs. BTC is simultaneously holding a flat support level at 26,600 4Hr level as we can observe here.
Price is squeezing downwards but the bottom is remaining flat at our 26,600 4Hr level. Soon this pressure may burst up or down and I'd bet on more downside.
This Price action/Multi-timeframe analysis details a bearish market.
Bearish Market Structure has Lower Lows and Lower Highs.
Bullish market Strucutre has Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
The Weekly timeframe is printing multiple bear candles. We are also creating back to back descending wicks on the Daily timeframe. This denotes a market that is in momentum.
Looking for lower prices here. Will Update.
Safe Trading.
EURUSD Is this the End? 🥶 [ 1 Month Long Range ]Is it over EURUSD !! Don't leave the Range! Not yettt 😢. 1 Month of ranging on the Daily timeframe. A Swing traders Dream. A Scalper's Dream. We'll See if Price retreats to 1.086 Weekly S/R Zone as plotted out as a potential scenario before FOMC Data last Week.
A New week and Eu continues the descent 💎Eurusd is currently jumping around inside a tight intra-day range. Eurusd appears to be rejecting our 4Hr S/R Zone and maybe EU will turn into another textbook opportunity to sell a resistance zone in a downtrend. We have bearish momentum and a wick to fill on the previous week's bottom wick. The previous week's bottom wick currently stretches 45 pips that we can easily go fill. London Open appeared to want to drop to the downside but the market was not ready. For New York we have returned to the top of the range and the bulls are struggling. The NY Open 1Hr candle attempted to make a move up but ended up leaving a wick and closing back inside our 4hr range between
1.082 4Hr Zone and 1.0806. A tight knit 14 pip range possibly distributing to the downside. Another clue is the 4Hr candle that closed 1Hr ago, failing to close above 1.082 4Hr S/R Zone.
The Daily Candle has been bullish but the upside has been limited due to our 4Hr 1.082 Level. (Sellers are protecting this area) The Daily Candle keeps testing buyers as it threatens to flip at our 4Hr Support level 1.0806. This is where the market opened at Asian yesterday and if 1.0806 4hr zone doesn't hold then we will be looking towards a retest of 1.078 1Hr Zone in which we would be filling the previous week's bottom wick with momentum. Momentum that has been carried over from the previous week. Looking for this price 1.078 soon or we may range longer and will have to re-evaluate.
BITCOIN: bulls or bears? Vote in the comments!Looking at the Monthly-timeframe graph on the left-hand side of the screen, it can be inferred that the price has been able to reject the crucial area of resistance highlighted on the chart that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the top to the bottom of the bearish rally commencing in April of 2022.
Zooming into the Weekly-timeframe chart, it can be observed that the price is approaching the FWB:25K region of previous resistance now acting as support. Here, we are awaiting a "bounce or break" action before plotting the next game-plan.
Are you bullish or bearish on BTC/USD? Will we be witnessing another crash or we should get prepared for heading to Jupiter?
Do not hesitate to share your ideas and thoughts in the comment section below!
Keep it Simple🧧 4Hr Resistance Zone in a Short Term Downtrend ₿It is Safe to Say that after looking at the Weekly chart, Bitcoin will likely see more downside to come.
We can observe Bearish market Structure on the Weekly Chart. A LL on the second week of April(27,566$), a Lower High on the first week of May (29,236$) and now a New LL (26,931$) on the Second week of May.
Price is stair stepping it's way down. Gracefully. But with that said we may see a fierce drop to come as we have seen in Years Past on BTC. We can recall that when investors and institutions dump BTC they do not hesitate.
The Daily Candle is About to close Bullish. However we can at least anticipate a Lower wick and bounce off our 4Hr Zone 27,430$
On Monday of this week Price respected our 27,600$ Weekly S/R Level.
Price in Medium Term has eased off our June 2022 30,000$ Weekly S/R level and is pulling down.
With clean traffic to the left on the 4Hr Timeframe I can visualize price dropping once we return to 26K again.
Our Next Stop on the Daily timeframe will be 24,374$ .
For Buyers we are at the extreme lows of our Daily Range between 26,700$ and 30,500$. Price is testing the extreme Lows. Will Buyers step in to protect these Medium Term Lows or will BTC print fresh lows alongside the Stock market as Inflation stays steady above the Fed's 2% Target.
I think at the Bare Minimum we can anticipate a Short term range between 27,600 Weekly S/R level and 26,700 Daily Level. We are selling the top of the range.
Not Financial Advice
For Educational Purposes Only.
This is Price Action combined with Multi-Timeframe Analysis.
Stubborn EURUSD protects 🛡️1.076 Daily Level FOMC Meeting Minutes is coinciding with a touch into our Daily Support Level that has held since last Thursday. It's almost been an entire week since the decline has been halted. Yesterday we created a publishing about a potential double bottom, but we may have jumped the gun so to speak. The market may have needed more time to accumulate long orders and trap short liquidity. The Market appears to keep banging its head stubbornly against our 1.076 Daily Level. This morning thus far we could observe a volatile 40 pip range between 1.0795 and 1.075. Day traders have been having a hell of a time. This market reminds me of the FOMC Interest rate announcement about 3 weeks ago. It was a volatile range and turned out to be the turning point in favor of the bears for Eurusd. The market used FOMC as a turning point recently and I think we may see another occurrence as the market shakes out Buyers and Sellers with this volatile price action. Similar to the CPI news shaking out weak sellers 2 week ago, this market may increase.
The price is low but the Sellers don't look necessarily persistent in their effort to sell into the 1.076 Daily Level. The Buyers on the other hand are happy to go long at our Daily Support Level as it offers great risk to reward. Price is has made a new low during London but was quickly bought up at our pre-planned 1hr support zone 1.0749. I liken price to return to our 1.08125 Daily Level as we continue to see a volatile range and fight in the 1.07's for Eurusd.
I've struggled in my scalping of Eurusd this week and attribute it to psychology. Trading psychology is a very large part of trading and requires constant attention. It must be managed properly and is a skill just as developing a profitable system that suits your personality. It takes time to understand your weaknesses and strengths as a trader. This week I've had a particularly difficult time managing my weaknesses. Time and Patience is the greatest warrior and so I will come back stronger at a later time. Safe trading.
Eurusd : Double Bottom [ Daily level 1.076 ] ⛽There is a good probability that Eurusd will create a double bottom structure at 1.07597 on the Daily Timeframe. Here on the 1Hr we can observe a Low formed at the bottom of structure and is bouncing hard. I am anticipating a sort of double bottom structure here on EU. EU is flat after PMI data was released. Data was expected to be generally good and it turned out to be mixed.
-This news release lines up with a retest of our Daily Level 1.07597
-The recent 4Hr candle just closed at our 4Hr Support/ Daily Level 1.07597 with no bottom wick signaling to me that there is profit taking for the bear occurring.
-After 1Hr of Price action the current 4Hr candle didn't hesitate and has just gone straight up.
-The bottom wick for the new 4hr candle thus far has been very minimal.
- The 1Hr Candle just closed bullish at our 1.078 1Hr Zone
-Often times at the 7am PST candle you can observe a continuation of the previous trend . ( In this case confirmation of a bounce off our Daily level 1.076
-We have clean traffic on the 1Hr chart back up to 1.08 where we may run into some trouble in the short term
More Analysis: I bought the low price around the time when the new 4hr candle was opening and earned nearly 1% on the account. I don't necessarily think going short at Support is a wise thing unless you really know what you are doing.
Going with --> Gut Feeling/Spider Instinct🕷️/Sixth Sense The Weekly Candle closed bearish last week. This created the second weekly bearish close in a row denoting bearish momentum. 1.0866 Weekly S/R Zone is no longer relevant. Our Relevant weekly level's now stand as
-Weekly Resistance Level : 1.1024
-Weekly Support Level : 1.06647
Our Daily Level's stand as
- Daily Support Level : 1.07597
- Daily Resistance Level : 1.08739
I think it's reasonable to see some selling pressure to start off the trading for this week.
Or may we at least anticipate a double bottom sort of structure and retest of our 1hr Zone 1.07802
USD/CHF: the best region to go short from has been identifiedFirst of all, taking a look at the Weekly-timeframe graph, we might observe how the price has succeeded in rejecting the crucial area of resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Zooming into the DAILY TF graph illustrated on the right-hand side of the screen, it can be identified that the price has printed a long wick by rejecting the local area of support, and that it is headed towards the upside. Since our long-term view remains bearish, we will await the price reach the key region highlighted on the graph and contribute to forming a nice Top Pattern formation before we look into going short and targeting the Weekly TF Lower Low level.
Exhaustion Ticket 🎫 << EthereumEth is currently trading in a tight raneg between 1874 Weekly Resistance Level and 1775 Weekly Support Level.
After taking a Look at the monthly Candle it appears Eth may be out of Gas. April's 23' Monthly Candle closed in a quite exhausted fashion.
The Top wick of April's Monthly candle is 5 times larger than the body of the candle. So far and through the first 2 weeks of May, we pushed up but price didn't sustain it's trajectory as it currently sits at a -2.58% difference on the Month.
Bulls haven't done much which only confirms our previous thoughts.
1775 Appears to be rather resilient for the Bulls but I value the monthly timeframe over the Weekly timeframe obviously.
We are seeing exhaustion at our 1831 4Hr Zone. May we revisit the Lows of the Range once again?
Target for Shorts being 1795 Daily Level.
Lower Lows.. More Low Prices to end the Week? 🚠 Eurusd Eurusd is going down. Will it continue to go down is the question?
We are at the Extreme Daily Level 1.08392 of our larger Range. The Daily Candle just printed almost exactly at our Level. Not above nor Below.
Bear Market Structure still Maintains itself So long as a 1Hr candle doesn't print above 1.0872 on the 1Hr Timeframe.
Unemployment Claims Data is expected to be positive for the USD during the Next NY Session.
However the Unemployment Claims data since February has been increasing more and more as more people file for Unemployment. Not a good sign for the Workforce. Maybe this is
is more of an excuse to buy our Reserve and Safe Haven Currency .. the U.S. Dollar.
The News release may be the catalyst for a continuation of momentum to the downside
+ Another Lower Low printed in Market structure. The price I like for a weekly Bearish target is 1.07925 4Hr Zone
Our Bullish Eurusd target for the end of the week is 1.0872 Daily level.
We have our Level's plotted and will use Technical Analysis to create good Risk Reward Ideas. The market is random after all and we can only use our form of technical analysis to manage risk.
Unemployment Data was a Catalyst for more Eurusd Downside 🚅The Weekly Candle is now plunging down into a Free Fall. Unemployment Claims Data was poised to improve with 10K less people filing for Unemployment.
The data was better than expected as more than 20K less people filed for unemployment in comparison to the previous period. In previous posts I talked about how this may provide a continuation for further downside and more Dollar Buys to come (More Eurusd Sells to come). This occurred and so now the question is if Momentum will continue to help Eu Fall to the next Daily Zone at 1.07598. Our Weekly Target was just hit at 1.07925 4Hr Zone but price may keep dropping hard.
-The Weekly Candle last week Printed bearish below our Weekly S/R Zone 1.0866
- The first two days of this week saw Euro buyers to not be able to sustain themselves
- Price was gathering liquidity setting up the move for later in the week which we are seeing now
- Price did a perfect break and retest at 4Hr level 1.08462 and returned back to the lows at 1.08150 1Hr Zone just prior to news
-Looking at the 4Hr Timeframe we can at least expect an 8ish Pip bottom wick on this NY 4Hr Candle
-Look at the sell pressure, price keeps dropping and I'm looking towards 1.07592 Daily Level to end off the week from here
Shaking it up 💵 Can you close Below 1.08392? EurusdIt took a Few Days before Price was able to punch out a new Low after Printing an Engulfing Candle on the weekly timeframe last week.
The candle engulfed almost 5 weeks of previous gains by Bulls. Price corrected to the S/R Zone 1.0866 and pulled back from our Quarterly Highs around 1.103- 1.108.
The Next Weekly Level sits a 1.06650 which currently sits 170 Pips away. We do have unemployment data during the second to last NY session of the week tomorrow.
We'll see how the American workforce is doing. This news release can be a catalyst for a continuation in trend to the downside. Our Last Daily Support Level that I can see being tricky will be 1.08392. If the Daily Candle can close a solid candle below there, we can expect more downside to come. Maybe it can also act as a good Break and retest level for Short Entries. But first we must observe the Daily Close. One guy has a swing entry from 1.086 and another guy has a swing from 1.082. Both Short Entries. Both are Good traders. All of the gossip and panic about institutions dumping the Dollar. You would've missed this 200-250 Pip Short trade from the Highs that coincided with hawkish FOMC data. Thinking there may be more to come.
We have creased below all our Daily Level's
-1.08607 Daily Level created on Monday
-1.0853 Daily Level created on April 11th
-1.08392 Daily Level created on April 3rd
The next Daily Level sits at 1.07592.
A good technical indicator for the Daily candle is it closing with a larger body then a bottom wick. We would like to see bears protect 1.08392
What is concerning is that we may have alot of shorts piling in now. Are they Late? We will see.
The market is not going to feed everyone so we may see a hard pullback up to 1.08742 Daily Level once again
Unemployment Claims has been climbing since February 7th of this year. It is expected to be a small improvement over the last period.
If the Daily Candle can pull back up and close above 1.08607 Daily Level that was created on Monday, Definitely Buys on EU here, good RR back to Top of our Daily Range , first back to 1.089 4Hr level
We would want the bears to Ideally respect the Break and retest Level 1.08462 on the 4Hr timeframe. The 4hr Is about to close and is closing below 1.08462, good for bears
USD/CHF: multi-timeframe bullish outlook. What is the next step?Deriving from the Weekly-timeframe graph on the left-hand side of the screen, the price is headed towards the crucial area of resistance lining up with the 50% FIbonacci retracement level highlighted on the chart.
Zooming into the H16 and lower timeframe charts, it can be inferred that a crucial area of resistance has been reached and the price is attempting to break out of the sideways-moving range it has been consolidating within. If the local region of resistance gets penetrated by bulls, then a small re-touch will be awaited before entering long positions and aiming for the zone plotted and targeted on the Weekly graph.