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Multitimeframeanalysis

NFP March 7th, 2023'In yesterdays publishing you can observe that our short term target was at 1.0938. Some buyers are taking profit as we have reached this minor zone 1Hr level. The bullish 4hr candle closed above 1.0918 which has been our Fakeout sell side entry area. This is bullish technically speaking. Looking at market structure it looks great. So we had a fakeout market strcutre display, but now look where the 4hr candle closed. EU being tricky. In larger context, I don't like buys as much at these prices. I like retests of 1.0867 to end the week off with NFP tomorrow. Price is consolidating near the Daily/Weekly highs and playing games. If we go Long, I like Bulls respecting 1.0918 , possibly wicking back down again to 1.089 and then rocket to mars at 1.103, Weekly timeframe wick fill. Trading : Fortunately, I did trade and anticipate sells off this level after news was released this morning. Price wicked up violently triggering my buy stop. In profit for two seconds then hit SL. Only half risk here. Consequently, I took sells after we whipped back down and created a low to go fill in momentum. I scaled in with full size effectively and picked up 7.3 pips in 6 minutes. I took one more sell for +2 pips with higher risk which worked out well. Took 1 more trade with half risk and closed for small loss. Called the day there.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Moving into Weekend 🏖️ Weekly Candle Pulling back As mentioned in yesterdays publishing, we were anticipating dollar strength moving into NFP. The market structure was a bit awkward moving into NFP with price consolidating testing to see if it could hold 1.0918 as support. We punched through back to 1.089 with NFP data. Took advantage of these intuitions for the better then consequently ran into risk management issues. Nonetheless we have seen great sell opportunities these past 2 days to end the week and I'm not surprised. Moving into the weekend I think the weekly candle can cointinue to pullback and potentially gap down as we open next week. I've been talking about 1.0918 frequently as it will act as our Fakeout level on 4Hr Timeframe if we are right. If we are wrong, will range and ultimately like the bulls to do a solid break and retest above and beyond 1.0918. Have a good weekend.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Bounced off Daily Zone 1.07971 & Large Daily Wick is Bullish 🤷‍Value in Description ⬇️ Beware we have returned close to our extreme prices after an abrupt beginning to the week. Price fell into the abyss as optimistic buyers were a bit too early like myself. This NY session though we managed to grab a spot on the train. I was bearish walking into the week and was expecting a pullback to these prices. However , after that start to the week and observing how the daily candle may close with the large bottom wick, it gives me more confidence that we may blast through the extreme prices at 1.093. Our next target may be the previous monthly candle wick at 1.103 and which is also the next weekly Zone above where we are currently at (1.088) NFP on friday will be catalyst for large move here. Especially with this start to the week. We already have a large imbalance and it's obvious. More analysis : We have created a Lower Low on the 4Hr TF. NFP is setting up early in the week at extreme prices 1.093 area. Retesting, before we move back down to 1.079 and reject extreme prices at a Monthly and weekly S/R level at 1.09.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
GBP / USD - DOES IT NEED A CORRECTION?GBP / USD - DOES IT NEED A HEALTHY CORRECTION? My analysis today deals with how the further course of our popular Forex pair "GBP / USD" could look. > The technical analysis and selected indicators, confirm the thesis of an imminent sell-off. = Why, that I explain after the introduction. The DXY / USD has a non-negligible impact on GBP / USD, as the whole economy depends on its behavior, and it directly competes in composition. > Meanwhile, this seems to take a run-up, for a final upswing, which could put the currency pair under massive selling pressure. > Regardless of these selling pressures coming from the USD, GBP / USD has arrived at a very strong support, which suggests a rising price. In the following, the analysis goes into detail, so that the significant levels and areas are known to you. For this purpose, I have performed a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month & week) and thus makes the big picture visible. Normally all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing. > We traders know that no one can predict the future, and that is exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations. > If the DXY should rise again, that means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets. > This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture. > Which levels are RELEVANT, I have explained in detail in the following pages. Table of contents 1st part = INTRODUCTION 2nd part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS = Monthly - Time frame = Weekly - Time frame 3rd part = CONCLUSION PART ONE "INTRODUCTION" After "GBP/USD" tried to break out of its previously existing downtrend in May|2021, a strong sell-off was subsequently unleashed. > This sell-off extended to September|2022, where we formed our currently existing low. > After this significant low of 1.03565 USD (lowest exchange rate since the existence of the GBP), investors' fears subsided a bit and a massive buying of 20.19%, to 1.21534 USD occurred (in less than 2 months). > Due to this extreme upward movement, we can assume that a correction is overdue. This is needed so that a healthy recapture, an acceptable exchange rate can arise. > In recent weeks, the strong upward movement has stalled a bit, making the correction I expect more and more likely. CONTRA | SELL-OFF = Despite the strong reasons for a sell-off, the price can approach the not yet tested downtrend line, which would be at approx. 1.28 USD. = In addition, the price has regained a sideways trend channel and has respected it so far. PRO | SELL-OFF = The significant Fibonacci level of 0.65 (of the previous upward movement) was reached and tried to be broken twice without success. = The "DAILY" - MACD + RSI - both show divergences, which further strengthens the correction thesis. > Once you look at the DXY (USD index) at the higher time levels, the further sell-off in the traditional markets becomes even more likely. (My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes). SECOND PART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS For the analysis of the higher time levels, I proceed according to the onion-skin principle. > MONTH - level > WEEK - level > DAY - level These are divided into > SUMMARY > CHARTS The charts are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way. (This also refers to Fibonacci levels.) 1st MONTH – Time frame SUMMARY The trend channel shown in the chart, in turquoise, finds its root in 1972 and has been able to maintain itself as a legitimate trend channel since then. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market. > The price is in the area below the mean line and had unsuccessfully challenged it in 2021. The trend channel shown in the chart, in purple, formed since 1976 and represented a hidden sideways channel. > The price is far from the channel and will not provoke a confrontation in the coming months. The trend line drawn in the chart, golden, has its origin in 2007 and proved to be a very strong resistance. > The price challenged this between "early 2021 - to early 2022" unsuccessfully and subsequently experienced its strong sell-off. As we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can take a closer look at the following "DEMAND" + "SUPPLY" zones on the chart. > The "DEMAND" zone 1, is STRONG = Played a role in the last bottom formation. > The "DEMAND" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = Played a role in the last bottoming out. > The "SUPPLY" zone 1, is STRONG = followed a strong move + it goes along with the mid-trend line of the largest trend channel (origin | 1972) The Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation, and have been taken into account in past movements (last decades). > FIB 1 | will serve as resistance should the price attempt another run-up. > FIB 2 | represents all relevant levels, for a possible sell-off. Past highs and lows usually serve as resistance/support, one of which we have. > OLD LOW | 03/2020 > OLDEST LOW | 1985 Some levels of interest are in front of us, which in the last months + years, played a strong role for the market. > The most relevant at the moment - POIs are (1.20 + 1.185 USD) - and have been an important mark since the year 1984. In addition, they currently take a very strong support role. > The other POIs are by no means negligible and will play a role in the price development in the coming days, weeks and months. (Therefore, take your time and transfer the ones that are relevant for you into your chart). OVERVIEW CURRENT RELEVANT CHARTS Overall picture without POIs + without FIBONACCI Overall picture without POIs Overall picture without FIBONACCI ATTENTION In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. . 2nd WEEK – Time frame SUMMARY IN ADDITION TO THE ALREADY ANNOUNCED TREND CHANNEL + TREND LINES, FURTHER VISIBLE. The trend channel shown in the chart, purple, finds its root in 2016 and since then has been able to maintain itself as a legitimate trend channel. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market. > The price is in the lowest area of the channel and had regained it. Despite the successful recapture, the price does not seem to be able to hold this position for much longer. The trend lines, drawn in the chart, have the following characteristics. > The - golden - older line served as an excellent support line in the past and was only temporarily broken in 2022 by a "fake-out". > The - golden - line with the shorter history is our current down-sale trendline and would come into play in case of a further rise. > The - turquoise - line will serve us as a "POI support line" during the following correction, as it represented a strongly contested area in the past. The monthly "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones are joined by others from the weekly view that coincide with other resistance / support elements. > The "DEMAND" zone 1, is VERY STRONG = followed a strong move + was not tested by the price so far + is covered by a monthly demand zone > The "SUPPLY" zones 1+2+3, are WEAK = each followed a Weak move and do not receive additional overlap from a Monthly Supply Zone > The "SUPPLY" zones 4, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement + is covered by a monthly supply zone As further Fibonacci additions, we have four more elements: > FIB 1 | will serve as support, but should not be of great relevance. > FIB 2 | represents a possible target level, for a possible sell-off. > FIB 3 | represents all possible correction levels, for a possible sell-off. > FIB 4 | represents all possible levels for a further price increase. CHARTS Overall picture Overall picture without FIBONACCI THIRD PART CONCLUSION "Is the pound losing its global position as one of the strongest currencies?" If you answered YES to this question, let's look into the reason. > Do you think this is only due to BREXIT, or is the reason a bit more complex? > Let me know in the comments what you think could be another reason and will be in the future. In summary, based on technical analysis, there are strong reasons for a correction. > Since the second attempt to break the 0.65 FIB, less and less strength is showing in the GBP. > A possible break of the resistance elements is not impossible, but highly unlikely. > The divergences in the daily RSI + MACD, suggest a bearish sell-off. For this reason, I assume a weak GBP exchange rate and a strong USD and an accompanying sell-off in the traditional and crypto markets. > Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT. If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea. Thank you and happy trading! ZIEL IST DIE AUTARKIE | THE GOAL IS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
Short
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
5
Dollar Buys but after a pullback early in Week? ⛺Welcome April. Last month we ended with the monthly candle and the weekly candle pulling back and created a larger top wick. However, the Monthly candle looks awfully bullish as it closed as a solid bullish candle. That being said, it did close within our Daily range and the weekly candle closed below the weekly zone to the left at 1.08690. We also had a bearish engulfing candle close on the Daily timeframe, Which i'm not surprised by. We tapped into extreme prices at 1.093 as mentioned in previous publishing's. Anyways, anticpating pullback back to 1.0853.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
AUDCAD, LongPrice action is shifting from a bearish market to a potential bullish one. Price is currently moving within a decending channel which is at a level that has had a strong reaction too previously indicating that we could see the next bullish phase begin. To add confluence to this set up, we could see a H&S pattern which the Right shoulder could be in the beginning with a swing target of 0.93350 range. Look at the LTF for an entry that meets your trading plan. Thanks Trade safe ** If you felt this was helpful in any way, hit the LIKE button and FOLLOW me for more educational ideas and analysis ** Share your opinion on this pair by leaving a comment
Long
by ktlfx
1
London Close Volume up to Daily Zone at 1.0854 or Range? The 4Hr candle closed above 1.083 4Hr Zone which is quite bullish for me. However we must consider that we have seen some volatile rejection near NY Open around 3-4 Hours ago. It's about where candles close so that is why we will give more weight to the buy side. If We get to 1.0854, then I can see it being pretty straight forward for us to reach 1.089 as mentioned in previous posts. More Analysis: The first 1Hr cnadle of the new 4hr candle pulled back to 1.081 which we respected. The consumer confidence report was used as a catalyst for a continuation of bullish momentum. The 1Hr candle just closed above the other candles to the left at 4pm GMT time. Look on the 1Hr and 4hr and you will observe a free liquidity range for us to push up to 1.089. First we must observe the Daily level at 1.0854 and see if we will push further into it or plainly reject it, taking us back to 1.081.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Eurusd still more Upside after touching into 1.0854? 🚄1) We have managed to Respect and hold 1.081 during London Session. 2) 1Hr Zone at 1.08230 has also held strong. 3) The 4hr closed 3 hours ago directly at our daily level 1.0854. Actually, it closed slightly below whihc is Bearish Price doesn't have to move up anymore because we are at the resistance of the daily range after a move up this week of 110 pips this week. I still like the weekly target at 1.089 however as we move closer to CPI data . We'll see what happens We may attempt to fill previous weekly wick with momentum which would be price --> 1.093 CPI would be a catlasyt to reach this target
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
3 PHASES / FACES of XRPHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. As you all know by now, I'm a huge fan of XRP. The fundamentals are promising, and I've done a number of posts on these. Including: AND These posts cover the fundamentals and key concerns for altcoin XRPUSDT. However, if we take a look at the actual chart, it doesn't look great (in all honesty). Ideally, on any coin, you want to see growth. You don't want to see a continious return to lowest lows. Instead, like Bitcoin, you want to see higher lows over time and higher highs. Now one could argue this observation two ways : either for or against XRP. Which ever way you decide to argue, it's noteworthy to appreciate the simplicity of the market cycles occurring on XRP - Pump , Dump, and Consolidate until next Pump. We've recently seen a +30% pump, can you guess what comes next? I think the chart is self explanatory; in it's complexity, it's actually pretty simple : Buy LOW, sell HIGH. Don't be greedy, take profits. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Short
by CryptoCheck-
37
Very possible we may pullback early in week --> 1.08 Daily LevelIt is possible we may continue to pullback early in week and continue to reject daily level 1.07425. We must consider every daily level, even when we have a medium to long term bias on an asset. I think we can continue to pullback to the previous daily zone at 1.07795 before we see sellers step in and put in their two cents. Also the weekly candle needs to pullback and create a top wick. We had a very steep dive last week which we caught on the sell side. The wick on the daily candle shows rejection at a Monthly support and resistance zone at 1.09. I Still like a Bearish outlook. We have inflation data this week, at the end of the week that is. I think by that time we will have solid trend, and consequently use cpi data for a continuation of trend on the 4hr which we can ride. Safe Trading.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
EUR/USD: MTF perspective. On our way to new Higher Highs?Looking at the Daily timeframe graph on the left-hand side of the screen, we may observe how the price has nicely rejected a crucial area of support highlighted on the chart by printing a huge wick candle the tail of which has bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the beginning of the recent impulse. Zooming in and observing H16, H8, and H4 timeframe graphics, it can be noticed that the price has some imbalance to fill before continuing its upside movements. In other words, a solid bottom pattern should be formed before the price is able to push to the upside. Therefore, we are patiently waiting for the price to POTENTIALLY re-visit the area of support plotted on the graph and form some sort of a Double Bottom before going long and aiming for the target pictured on the graph.
Long
by Investroy
12
Favoring sells But sitting on Sidelines. Interest Rates⛔-->->EU I like the Risk to reward to the downside. However, and similar to Feb 1st Announcement, we could rip upwards to the Moon similar to first landing on the moon. We'll See what happens as we sit on the sidelines. Beware of position sizing during intraday scalping 1Hr after announcement. Which I have found typically to be the best time to trade surrounding news trading. Price is currently sitting underneath our 1.08 Daily zone. If we decide to move up our next target will be 1.08539 Daily Level. Other than that we have rather clean traffic heading up on the 4hr. If the market determines that pessimism is strong enough, we will respect our daily level here at 1.08, and leave a wick of liquidity catching breakout traders to the downside. Going down, I can observe us reaching 1.074 Daily level relatively easy once again. Anticpating crazy volatility here. Those are expecatations but we could be disappointed. Manage expectations. Safe trading.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Price keeps pushing up. Following MomentumThis looks like a very healthy uptrend on Lower timeframes. Printing a high and consequently pulling back, to breathe, before pushing up once more. Although and given the fact that we are still in a range on the daily and have been now for quite some time. The wicks on the few previous weekly candles have caught my eye after we failed to break below 1.0548 Last week. Holding a trade over the weekend was a good trading idea. Something I don't do too often. The momentum as the weekly candle pulled back on Friday of last week was very intriguing. Today, The 6am 4Hr Candle was a catalyst for a contiuation in buys. Something I called out in real time on my previous publishing. I updated the idea minutes before the 6am candle closed. Thanks for reading this far.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
EURUSD Weekly Candle Pulling Back to end the WeekWe can observe momentum bullish here. An important candle closure to observe is the 10EST 4hr Candle close. The candle closed above 1.06650. This was the cl;ue and the tracks the market left behind/ . The last 15m of the 1Hr candle, that was this move up to the next rnage. The 4Hr is importnatn and means everything to forex traders due to the nature of various sessions in the forex market ( being open 24 hours/day) NY Session (Most Volume -Current as of Post Asian Session - Least Volume London Session - Median Volume Volumes moves into the market at specific and various times throughout the day. One only begins to understand the nature of volume with experience. it cannot be taught. Look at where the move occurs, where the big candle is, what time that big candle occurs at.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
CADCHF, Bears to target 0.665 rangePrice action is shaping up for a sell opportunity as we can see a price is completing a bearish continuation indicating further downside is possible. Competition of this correction is also a 3rd touch on the upper trend line. Find a risk entry or a reduced risk entry that meets your trading plan Thanks Trade Safe **If you felt this was helpful in any way, hit the LIKE button and FOLLOW me for more analysis and education ideas** Feel free to share your opinion on this pair by leaving a comment below I appreciate all the feedback.
Short
by ktlfx
1