EurUsd.. End of week Momentum 🕴️Hello traders.. we have the last 2 trading sessions of the week here. The monthly/weekly/Daily are all bearish. 4Hr market structure is bearish and we are creating a new 4hr resistance zone at 1.07261 after this 4hr candles closes in 30 minutes. Today we observed a continuation on EurUsd which was forecasted inadvance on this channel. It was relatively straight forward given the current fundamental backdrop in the markets with strong jobs datta last week and 2 consecutive inflation increases for March and April CPI releases. The large bearish engulfing candle also gave it away.. I really dont want to know who was trading against the trend this week. Anyways we currently have momentum in the market and I believe we will retest the previous daily low at 1.06992 4hr support zone. We outlined this zone in the analysis yesterday as well. We rejected this zone at London close during the New york session today. We reached my short target for the week already.. 1.06992. We have a Daily support level at 1.07086. It's possible we may ignore all level's and drop to the next key level , weekly level 1.06834. We have consumer sentiment for USD forecasted to decrease slightly across the previous data point. The news may act as an catayst to continue dropping or Pullback to end the week. Important levels to watch 1.07261 and 1.07086. Watching how candles interact with these levels.
Multitimeframeanalysis
AVAUSDT. We have context for both selling and buying. It's an interesting situation. We have context for both selling and buying.
On the daily timeframe, there's a sideways movement (upper boundary - 49.96). The price has now returned to it, but the daily candle has not yet closed. If the daily candle closes inside the sideways movement, then we can look for sales, and the bearish vector 5-6 with a target at 32.3 will be relevant. There are two threats for the bears along the way in the form of buyer zones (blue background). The first one is at 48.3, which is currently being interacted with. The second threat is the buyer zone with the upper boundary at 45.18.
On the hourly timeframe, the price is at the lower boundary of the sideways movement (48.3). The bearish vector 11-12 has played out. The launch of the bullish vector 12-13 with a target at 61.95 is possible.
In summary, the daily and hourly buyer levels coincide (48.3). If the buyer shows itself at this level, then we can consider buying, taking into account the seller zones on the daily chart (red background). If the seller defends the breakout of the level 48.3, then we can consider selling, taking into account the daily buyer zone (upper boundary 45.18), inside which, by the way, lies 50% of the last daily buyer impulse.
For a more detailed explanation of how to read charts and consider different timeframes when looking for trades, you can refer to the article
AVAXUSDT. On the Daily timeframe, selling takes precedenceOn the daily timeframe, we see a sideways movement with the upper boundary at 49.96. The price has been above the upper boundary for the last 20 days, but yesterday it returned to it and stopped at the 50% level of the last buyer's impulse on the weekly timeframe. This is clearly visible on the hourly timeframe:
At the top, a seller's zone has formed with the upper boundary at 48.3 (red background), and at the bottom, a buyer's zone with the upper boundary at 45.18 (blue background). I anticipate price interaction with the seller's zone of interest. If the seller defends the range of 48-50, we can consider the possibility of sales, and the bearish vector 5-6 will become relevant with a target at 32.3. However, on the way to this target, sellers may be hindered by the buyer's zone, with which there was just interaction and a bullish reaction began, as clearly seen on the hourly timeframe.
On the hourly timeframe, the price is below the lower boundary of the sideways movement at the level of 48.3. The bearish vector 11-12 has already played out, and we can expect the launch of the bullish vector 12-13 with an ambitious target at the level of 61.95 (ambitious, because the buyer will have to overcome the seller's zone on the daily timeframe). To launch the bullish vector, the buyer needs to raise the price above the range of 48-50 and protect it.
For a more detailed explanation of how to read charts and consider different timeframes when looking for trades, you can refer to the article
BTCUSDT. Monitoring the seller's actions.Hello traders and investors!
It's time to update the forecast. During the last review (23/03/2024), we observed a short vector 7-8 within the sideways movement on the daily timeframe. The target of the long vector 8-9 was 72419 (see the chart from the previous review). Currently, the long vector 8-9 has reached this target.
It is advisable to look for sales at the upper boundary of the sideways movement. However, for short positions, the first threat is the buyer zone (blue color) with the upper boundary at 69674, which formed on the daily timeframe. And the seller has not yet shown itself on the hourly timeframe - the price at 17 hours is near the level of 72419.
There is a high probability that the buyer will reach the upper boundary of the sideways movement at 73777. I am waiting for a reinteraction of the price with the level of 72419.
For a more detailed explanation of how to read charts and consider different timeframes when looking for trades, you can refer to the article
BTCUSDT. Short term analysisHello traders and investors!
On the daily timeframe we see a resumption of buyers from the buyer's zone (blue background) with an upper boundary of 69674.
On the hourly timeframe, a sideways trend has formed, where the buyer's vector 4-5 has already reached the obligatory target. Searching for sales is risky because there is a resumption from the buyer's zone on the daily timeframe. It is not systematic to look for purchases at the upper boundary of the sideways.
It is better to look for purchases at the lower boundary of the sideways trend, for example, from the buyer's protection levels at 69071, 67518.
Sales are advisable to look for below the level of 67518 as an idea for implementing the seller's vector 9-10 of the sideways trend on the daily timeframe with the first target at 64493 (second - 60775).
As before, I am waiting for a repeated interaction of the price with the level of 72419.
By the way, purchases could be found yesterday on the 30-minute timeframe (see the chart).
USD bounces back following Strong Jobs Data 🖤The EurUsd Monthly candle is bullish to begin the 2nd quarter and after the first week of Aprils trading. The weekly candle closed bullish as price rejected our key weekly support level 1.0771. The candle left a 40 pips top wick for this weeks candle to go fill in bullish momentum. However, we observed a shooting star candle on Thursday that closed below our 1.0837 Daily resistance level. The friday daily candle dropped and bounced back up after NFP news. Yet, price still managed to close bearish and below our daily resistance level 1.0837. A Shooting star candle followed by a Hanging man candle.. It's early in the month and I still think we can observe some USD strength. How long it will last im not sure.. It's early in the week and a downtrend on the 1hr timeframe back to Friday's low seems possible. We must observe how price acts around the 1.0844 4hr resistance level. Other Key level's include 1.0825 1hr zone, and 1.0805 4hr zone which is our short term target to begin the week here.
We've observed strong jobs data 2 months in a row. March and April releases have both been strong.. this coupled with the fact that CPI is snaticpated to increase from 3.2% to 3.4% this week suggests a healthy consumer spending economy, strong USD. It also suggests more uncertainty regarding inflation because March increased YoY for CPI.. and now April? The fed is going in the opposite direction for it's goals.. Maybe institutions.. it's time to buy the USD safe haven asset of the world?
Weekly timeframe
Still ranging on the monthly timeframe but it appears the monthly candle is pulling up or is this a liquidity move preceding more USD strength.
Has the Market Priced In CPI Data? 🔕As we enter the 5th trading session of the week, The monthly candle and weekly candles are still bullish. The Daily candle closed bullish to begin the week(Monday) and it appears that the market has possibly priced in the not-so-great data forecasted to be released on Wednesday. The Euro went up on a Monday with inflation forecasted to increase for the USD on Wednesday. Maybe we will continue to ascend on EurUsd as the market shrugs off increasing inflation for the USD. This doesnt make sense to me because the USD is a safe haven in times of uncertainty. I'm anticpating that this early push to higher prices early in the week is a discount as the price for EU will be alot lower to end the week(like 1.0805 4hr level or 1.0771 weekly level) And this will be a 2nd consecutive month where inflation increases. The last time we had 2 consecutive months where (USD) CPI increased was September 23' and July 22'. More details below.. make sure to check out the snapshots!
July 22' CPI(for June22') increase for 2 months in a row.. price dropped 100 pips the next day , pulled bac 315 pips the next 19 daily candles before dropping 750 pips across the next 34 daily candles
Sept 23' CPI release (For Aug23') increase for 2 months in a row.. EU went down 280 pips in the next 13 daily candles
USDJPY 💱 // Pre-April CPI ReportHello Traders.. We are taking a look at a different Pair today. The Monthly timeframe and Weekly timeframe really pushing the highs of the range over here. Will CPI be the catalyst to Spaceship us out of the range finally? Or do we still need some more time to gather liquidity and pullback. We pulled back today, Tuesday April 9th, as buyers got gun shy and Sellers took over.
Hindustan Copper - Is it Really Copper or is it Gold ???Multi-Timeframe Analysis on Hindustan Copper
Short Term View: Daily
Double Bottom BO done @ Daily timeframe for Target of 350. Just needs to sustain above 290 WCB. On the way, watchout for immediate resistances at 302, 310, 330
Medium Term View: Weekly
Flag Pattern BO confirmed on Weekly timeframe. At the same time, it is facing resistance from previous High of 302. Sustaining above 303 WCB will take the price to 390
Long Term View: Monthly / 3Months
Its an amazing Multi-year Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern BO on Monthly / 3 Months scale. 14 years BO since 2010. Target 615 perfectly intact
Enjoy the Multi-bagger ride of Hindustan Copper....
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ETHUSDT. Looking for purchasesOn the daily timeframe we have a sideways market. The bearish vector 5-6 has been played out. The price has already interacted with the level of 3200. Priority is given to considering purchases, preferably from the zone between 3200 and 3400, with the initial target at 3722.
ETHUSDT. Monitoring the seller's actions.Hello traders and investors!
It's time to update the forecast. During the last review (22.03.2024), we observed a short vector 5-6 in the sideways trend on the daily timeframe. The target of the long vector 6-7 was 3722 (see the chart from the last review). Currently, the long vector 6-7 has reached this target. At the top, there is a seller's zone with a lower boundary of 3722 (red background). So far, we haven't seen any reaction from the seller in this zone.
It is advisable to look for sales at the upper boundary of the sideways trend. However, for short positions, the first threat is the buyer's zone (blue color) with an upper boundary of 3505, which formed on the daily timeframe. There is a high probability that the buyer will reach the level of 3822.
On the hourly timeframe, a sideways trend has formed with boundaries of 3727 and 3665. I am waiting for the price to interact with these boundaries. We can look for a trade opportunity based on the protection of these boundaries.
For a more detailed explanation of how to read charts and consider different timeframes when looking for trades, you can refer to the article
Short Term Pullback preceding CPI // Gold 🧹I believe it's possible to observe a Pullback prior to CPI data on Wednesday for Gold. CPI is anticipated to increase once again which is not great for the Fed's inflation goals. This could cause more buying pressure on gold. In the meantime, we've seen a nice Higher High of 1hr market structure to begin the week. This seems like a solid liquidity move preceding a pullback to liquidate late buyers at all time highs here prior to CPI.
I think a pullback to 2305 1hr zone or 2291 Daily level is possible prior to CPI data. Safe trading. We may snapback to 2338 or 2353 where I'm anticipating selling pressure. The idea is get out prior to CPI which could cause massive buying pressure. We have 3-4 trading sessions in the meantime for possible shorts.
EurUsd treads in a Gray area preceding April NFP 📌What a Trading day.. a Continuation followed by a sharp selloff. The continuation was called out here at ShrewdCatFx and the Selloff was punishment to late buyers I suppose. NFP data tomorrow will likely take us for a ride as It typically does.. Direction? I'm leaning for more upside despite our weak Daily candle closure today. Why? I like the optimistic remarks by the fed this week and the market ate it up. Yes we've pulled back dramatically leading into NFP data tomorrow but the weekly candle is still bullish and US30 stock index is at a nice support level(after pulling back all week), suggesting a Risk-on Friday.
4hr timeframe, wild week with dramatic selloff to begin followed by massive move up with USD data and speech
Daily timeframe, Buyers rejected as the Thursday Daily candle closes a shooting star candle that coincides with a Daily resistance level 1.08372!
The Weekly timeframe, price is respecting 1.07652 so far this week but we still have NFP which could cause a lot of volatility
Monthly Range!
Optimistic Market on remarks by Fed Chair, J Powell ♦️The Market is Flying with Optimism
after ADP data was better
than Forecasted, Services data missed forecasts
but Fed Chair Jerome Powell
has said that he does not think that
inflation is reversing higher. The monthly candle has flipped bullish along with the Weekly candle as price has done a complete 180 from our initial selloff early in the week. Yes, we dropped to begin the month but it was the first day of the month and each monthly candle has a top and bottom wick. The tuesday daily candle closed back above the weekly level 1.0765. The wednesday daily candle dropped slightly and retested 1.0765 prior to blasting to outer space. That is one mighty candle and trading against itis not impossible but will require extra monitoring. We observed some very nice volatility today as we completely blew through the daily resistance zone 1.079 and are currrently testing daily resistance level 1.08372. The asian session 4hr candle closed above this daily level 1.08372 and we may keep flying . If not, and we come back down to earth, then I anticipate a retest of 1Hr support zone 1.0833 prior to more significant buying pressure. London may just shoot up to the next 4hr zone then pullback as we transition into New York Open is another scenario that could play out. We may observe some volatile ranging prior to NFP on Friday. It's important to look left to see what zones are most relevant for the new days trading. the prices I like for the upcoming sessions include 1.08429 1hr zone, 1.08524 4hr resistance zone, and 1.08330 1hr support zone.. safe trading
EurUsd Pullback treads between Key Level's 1.0765/1.0790 🎚️Hello Traders.. In our previous analysis (24hrs ago) we called out Longs/Buys from 1.0732 and price is currently 1.0770, an increase of 40 pips. The Monthly candle pulled down to begin the month and as we enter Wednesday the candle is returning to Break even after dropping 60 pips. The market now treads above the weekly level 1.0765 and will this sustain until the end of the week.. it's possible although I dont think we've seen the end of USD momentum this week but maybe we have. Maybe the market will pull up it's pants and the Eur will make a difference lol. The Tuesday daily candle closed bullish back above the weekly level 1.0765, this level we must watch closely... The wednesday daily candle already broke the high of the previous candle .. hmm... If we do head bullish I see us tapping into the daily resistance created on Monday at 1.079. Otherwise we created a daily support level today with the Bullish candle close at 1.0742. We do have a good amount of data in the upcoming session which could cause some volatility. I can see buyers pushing price to the Daily level 1.079 where we may see Sellers step back in. Today's session could be tricky and flexibility will be key.
ADANI POWER - Swing TRADE IdeaThe stock is in uptrend in all Higher time frames.
The stock has been in good consolidation for 12 weeks.
Downside wicks in the last 3 weeks indicate good buying coming in.
The last week candle seems to be an indecision candle post diminishing selling pressure and buying stepping in.
The lower time frame price actions such as Daily and 75 mins confirm the upside price momentum.
My SL and targets as mentioned in chart. I would plan a wide SL of 12% and target of 22% trailing. Target 1 - 591 ALL Time high.
Fomo Liquidity Pullback 🤐Anticipating a pullback with London session to clear Fomo liquidity. Depending on the amount, we may observe a pullback to 1.07435 4hr Resistance zone. If the market is extra stubborn then we may see a more sustained pullback to 1.075 area. Manufacturing data during NY session today surprised to the upside and beat the forecast creating a dramatic selloff on EurUsd. Not surprised for us here at ShrewdCatFx since we have been outlining the Market sentiment surrounding USD with hot labor market and increasing inflation readings last month of March. Good manufacturing data was just gasoline on the already hot USD. On another note, it's the beginning of the week still.. it's pretty early in the week and we've already observed some great volatility.. I believe we may observe some rversion to the mean for EurUsd and London will cause some pullback volatility to gather liquidity and plus it's only Monday. We still have ADP and NFP which will be a good excuse for more volatility.. so in the meantime we may mess around and range or pullback.. if not then I may be wrong and our next 4hr zone 1.07265 and 1.07105 are our next short targets for the upcoming sessions which has USD job openings news which is forecasted to decrease slightly across the previous data point which lines up with some at least short term EUR strength.. safe trading
EurUsd Beginning of Q2, 2024 📅Hello Traders, the March Monthly candle has closed bearish with a large top wick which looks to have rejected the top of our Monthly range at 1.1028. We now have 3 Monthly candle closing bearish consecutively which suggest more downside on EurUsd possible as we enter Q2, 2024. The top wick on the March monthly candle looks like a fresh liquidity grab for a push towards our monthly support level 1.057 in April. Our first stop will be the February monthly candle low price ( 1.695).
Strong Jobs data in March and increasing Inflation readings suggest continued uncertainty surrounding the Fed's ability to get a handle on the market. In the meantime we can observe USD strength Q1 ,2024 and this may continue as we enter Q2. Anything can happen in the markets and it's important that we always remain flexible in our approach and strategy for profiting from the markets. In the short term, our key levels of interest are Daily Resistance level created last week 1.08373. Another key level being the level that we mentioned multiple times last week, 1.0765 weekly support level. The Friday daily candle (march 29th) reacted off here and closed bullish. The next key level is 1.07105 Daily Support Level.
Monthly
Weekly
Daily
USD JPY - incoming 1990, then 1987?G'day,
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily)
Orange = Daily
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual.
Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed.
Monthly
simply put, look at 1990 and the gap formed in the fresh supply above at 157.XX - 164.XX (1987). not there is a hidden zone within 1986 which can be a final supply zone.
Weekly
The market has made a double top within the weekly supply, we'll await the confirmation on the daily time frame however.
The weekly zone has been built up upon a strong resilience zone from the supply zone (note this is a strong supply zone which dates back to 1990/91) , where multiple rejection weeks have occurred and price has been in an accumulation phase since.
Daily
High curve created for the daily supply, and now the buyers have created again a high curve, with this time a marked zone where price can pivot to (subject to confirmation), before price can begin its journey back into the supply, after a strong demand zone which can be brought back to.
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Trade in a sideways marketMain price pattern of financial instruments
So, when we talk about the price of financial stuff, like stocks or crypto, it often moves in specific ranges over different timeframes, right? Whether it's weekly, daily, hourly, or even minute charts, prices tend to hang out in these ranges for a while. Traders call this kind of price movement "consolidation," "range-bound," or simply a "sideways market."
In this article, we'll just call it a sideways market or range. When prices are stuck in this sideways action, they can break out with a sudden burst of momentum, kickstarting a trend, or they might just keep bouncing around, forming a new sideways pattern.
Let's check out the daily chart of BTCUSDT starting from October 2021. On the chart (see above), we've marked those periods where the price was moving sideways with blue markers. Since October 2021, we've spotted 7 of these sideways patterns. We label the first point of each sideways move as "1". Out of 884 trading days, the price was stuck in this sideways action for 758 days (884 - 72 - 39 - 15), which makes up about 85%. This means that throughout this whole period, you could've been looking at trades from one edge of the sideways range to the other.
Based on my estimates, most financial instruments spend more than 75% of their time in this sideways market mode.
So, knowing how to trade in sideways markets is a super important skill for traders. And for investors, understanding these sideways moves can really amp up the profitability of their investments by pinpointing better entry and exit points.
For example, right now, considering buying BABA stocks might be a good idea because the price is chilling at the bottom of a sideways range on the weekly chart.
Example1
Mastering the Skills for Successful Trading in Sideways Market
Being able to effectively trade within trading ranges, between their boundaries, requires not only a certain amount of knowledge but also the development of specific skills. Initially, one must grasp the theoretical foundations and then apply them in practice, gradually honing their skills. Let's look at the necessary skills:
Skill 1: Understanding and applying the Concept of Time Frame (TF) Interconnection: higher TF, lower TF. Grasping the context of the higher TF in relation to the sideways market TF.
Skill 2: Identifying sideways market: determining the absolute and current boundaries of the range, as well as the current direction (vector) of price movement.
Skill 3: Recognizing zones of interest for buyers and sellers.
Skill 4: Determining the presence of buyers at the lower boundary (bottom protection by buyers) and sellers at the upper boundary (top protection by sellers).
Skill 5: Adhering to risk management principles when entering trades (especially crucial for traders).
Each of these skills is based on a vast amount of knowledge that needs to be absorbed first and then applied in practice. The journey can be long and sometimes tedious. Is there a way to hack this system and shorten the time it takes to acquire knowledge, develop skills, and start trading? Well, there are options. For example, you can use technical indicators (such as RSI, Bollinger Bands, ATR, etc.) to make buying or selling decisions. Or you could completely bypass the process of acquiring knowledge and skills and rely on signals from Telegram channels or expert opinions. But what will you find there about trading in sideways market (ranges), where the market spends more than 75% of its time?
This series of articles is written for those who are ready to take control of their financial destiny, who strive to understand how financial markets work, and who want to master the skills of independent trading and making more informed investment decisions. Here you will find the knowledge and tools to start understanding what is happening in the financial markets and how to profit from it. I don't promise any magic pills or "money" buttons:).
So, let's get started.
Skill 1: Applying the Concept of Time Frame Interconnection
The higher time frame (TF) always takes precedence over the lower one. For instance, if we observe on the daily chart that the market is in a seller's zone (which is determined by Skill 3), then on the hourly chart, we need to analyze the seller's actions (Skill 4) and primarily look for selling opportunities. However, there might be a situation where the seller is inactive, and the price starts to rise due to buyer pressure (in this case, Skill 4 comes into play again).
Example2
On the provided chart, areas of seller interest are marked in red, while buyer interest areas are marked in blue. Let's examine the period from March 25th to March 27th, highlighted in yellow on the chart.
On the daily TF, we observe sideways movement since December 22, 2023, with the bearish vector (11-12) being relevant. The first target of the bearish vector, 3.119, was reached on March 19, 2024. The second target (2.822) and the third (2.611) remain valid. On March 25th, the price returned to the seller's zone on the daily chart (the red zone with the lower boundary at 3.680).
On the hourly chart, on March 25th, the price trend reached the daily seller's zone and formed a range with 7 points. The breakout from this range occurred downwards on March 27th. Therefore, in this range, it was advisable to look for selling opportunities from the upper boundary and riskily consider buying from the lower one.
Similarly, you can make investment decisions by analyzing, for example, the weekly and daily TFs.
To be continued...
P.S. This is indeed an interesting point! Despite the fact that the market spends more than 75% of its time in sideways movement, indicators and strategies specifically designed for trading in this mode have not gained as much popularity as other trading approaches. Even on the internet, including TV and trading Telegram channels, signals or analyses based on identifying sideways movement are very rarely encountered. If you have experience or knowledge about trading methods in sideways markets (including indicators), please share them in the comments!
Monthly Candle Closure Volatility ♠️Some banks and Institutions require their execution desks to close positions as the month comes to and end. This sometimes causes wild and irrational choppiness in the price action. Caution as the market closes out the month of March 24'. PCE data is forecasted to decrease which could spark some optimism and a rebound to the upside to end the month. If not, we may very well see a continuation of momentum with safe-haven buying of the USD aka EurUsd heads to the sea floor.
Next target for shorts is weekly level 1.07663 and 1.07451 4hr zone.
0:0 Monthly timeframe
3:42 Weekly timeframe
5:30 Daily timeframe
7:03 4hr timeframe
9:30 1hr timeframe and upcoming news
What's next? Risk-off USD strength or ++ Sentiment? Eur/Usd 📉Hello Traders.. This analysis is more brief but I get to the point with my bias and analysis. The Price level's are there.. We do have news super late in the NY session today as we have a Fed Speech so beware when holding your trades through to the next Daily candle. See you all in the next video
The Great Wall of 1.0805 Daily Level 🐼Enough to Stop the Risk-Off Sentiment? Daily Level 1.0805 may act as a temporary support level and we may observe a bounce and retracement early in the week here. During the first session of the week, Asian has observed some nice volatility off this Daily support level created on March 1st of this Month. 18 pips bounce already and I anticpate that by the end of New York session we will observe some sort of dead cat bounce after the freefall drop from the prior week. Target for a retracemnet is 1.08279 4hr zone. Retracements are a healthy part of a trending market but we don't have to bounce necessarily. We may very well just cntinue to drop towards our next siginifcant level and clear a 40 pips range down to Weekly Support level 1.0768.
Intro and monthly timeframe 0:0
Weekly timeframe 2:13
3:52 daily timframe
6:29 4hr timeframe
7:49 1hr timeframe