SCTY: Bottom or bust?On an absolute level, the price of SCTY -0.61% has declined to around 80% of its all time high. The question then becomes: is company's equity price going to stabilize at this level or is this the calm before the storm (a path to zero)? The company has a great story and in the eyes of many a visionary founder and ceo at the helm. The proposed merger may be partially attributable to the downward slide in the price of its equity . I believe in what they are doing and have confidence in the net benefit to all stakeholders - even shareholders for pushing forward with this vision of the future. However,this should not detract from the problems the company may or may not be facing and understanding if there is a value from purchasing equity at current price levels.
I intend to answer this question from both a fundamental and chart perspective. On a fundamental valuation, I will stick to the process Prof. Damodaran (NYU Stern) uses in determining value. The intent of this analysis will be to determin a view on trading/investing in this company for a long term holding (+6 month). If both views show a basis agreement, it would be prudent on my part to put my capital to work on those findings.
From a chart perspective, my opinion is a sell - and that has been the case for the past couple of months when looking at a weekly price trend. However, a monthly price chart will reveal the share price has been knocked down to relative lows and nearing ranges not since it IPO'ed. From that view it would be time to start considering opportunities, if they present themselves to go long, and seeing if the trend manages to reverse. Initiating shorts may less fruitful now given that the price drop has panned out in terms of magnitude and time.
I will update this in some time to include the valuation based on the fundamentals.
Musk
TSLA Medium Term Short - Next leg down from the bearish trendTSLA (Tesla) Short
Here's a setup of a TSLA short that I've initiated on Friday. Looking at the Fibonacci retracement lines, it has struggled to breakout of the 38.2% line after it's initial denial at the 23.6% line. Recently, there has been a breakout from the 38.2% region due to a strong market, despite negative Tesla stories as of late. Similarly, price has had difficulty breaking above the 200sma, which it broke just as of late. However, the main bearish trend line, top one in blue, is acting as strong resistance. Tesla closed once again at the 38.2% line, looking to make a reversal here and head back to low 200s. Unless there is a breakout of the top trendline, I expect another leg down push, hopefully into the low 200s/high 100s region.
This is a purely technical-based short setup but is very influenced by Tesla news. Musk has yet to release his master plan which he had mentioned this past week. Any evidence of a breakout of the blue line would be a good place to cover a short position.
SCTY crossroadsDescending triangle spotted in SCTY weekly. Will coal affect it's price?
I'm seeing two patterns. One is a descending triangle continuation or an inverse head and shoulder.
Whatever it is, do take the time to observe how it unfolds. Personally, I think it will bounce to $46 and then range. I personally do not think it will shoot up or shit all the way down.
I'm neutral
TSLA Cup and Handle 2.0In the end of August of 2014, Tesla completed the formation of a cup with a short handle, and within a few trading sessions, catalysts such as the China Unicom charger deal and Stifel's upgrade of TSLA with a price target of $400 caused the stock to break out and confirm the pattern. A similar cup and short handle has formed today ahead of the Model X reveal. TSLA CEO Elon Musk said in the last quarterly call that Model X configurations will be done in "Early July", which by Tesla time, is actually "Late July".
Who Made $195 So Important ???I was actually glancing at a 60 minute chart when I realized the $195.50 ish level on the chart. I chose to share a Daily chart instead.
Back in December TSLA hit the $195ish level. Again in January. Again in February. And now again in March. Since December, when TSLA came down to the $195ish level, it managed to go higher pretty quickly.
Will TSLA perform this time like it has in the past? Or will it break lower from here? Your guess is as good as mine...
March 18 Update - The Dance Continues
TSLA is still dancing around this $195 level. There was one day, a few days back, where it looked like TSLA was breaking to the downside. But the next day it gapped back up. Don't be impatient. If you are waiting for a break one way or the other then look for confirmation in that direction. It may not be a good idea to jump the gun on this stock at this time.
Since my original post of this idea, Elon Musk announced a press conference for tomorrow. There is no telling what this new information will do for the stock. Longs or Shorts could benefit...
Orbital Sciences Corp share price plungesShares in Orbital Sciences Corp have fallen faster than its Antares rocket in US pre-market trading overnight, dropping as much as 16 per cent after its mission to the International Space Station exploded spectacularly seconds after launch.
The unmanned rocket was taking 5,000 pounds of supplies to the space station, but exploded shortly after it took off at a launchpad in Virginia.
The good news is no-one was injured, although this is the first major failure since Nasa started outsourcing its missions to private companies, which also include SpaceX, the company founded by Tesla entrepreneur Elon Musk.
Tesla is going to have to supercharge after this driveTesla, aka the "stock of 2014" looks like its wild drive might be coming to a temporary end.
As much as I love this company, I see us at a temporary top, and I am looking for a shorting opportunity in the 265-275 zone.
Wave properties since March suggest we are in a corrective ABC flat, and are close to the B "top". Other indicators such as RSI and declining volume are supporting this theory. Since the B wave is (and should a little more) higher then the top of wave 5, this suggests we will have an "irregular flat", meaning wave C should drop lower then wave A. But since this is a powerful company, a safe target to close short would be anywhere near the 190 zone.
Even teslas don't run forever. Let this puppy charge up for a while.
Good luck
