Mxn
Short Modernity, Long Tradition.The only reason the time frame is so low is because I simply do not have enough data to work off otherwise, but I'm going to wager that the Swedish Kronor depreciates against the Mexican Peso, being that the Kronor is backed by a pro-immigration millennial gubment amidst a global pandemic while the Peso has both trumpbux repatriation efforts and a government that is actively shutting down borders as stimulus programs.
Should the value of Swedish fiat be more than 1.5x that of the small dollar? I mean peso?
Think of this as an investment in MXN against Sweden, the weakest pair I could figure, not the other way around.
Especially into the warmer months.
Who am I to counter-trade HA trend?
Mexican Peso to $29 MXN per 1 USD by August 2020???The Peso is currently in a sideways consolidation perhaps due to investors awaiting the outcome of Mexico's current monetary policies by the new administration. However, current trend points to an exchange rate of about $ 29 Mexican pesos to 1 US dollar by August of 2020. Could the president's new policies contribute to the country's economic decline? Only time will tell.
USDMXN: Buy opportunity long term.The pair has just reached the 18.75000 1M Support which has been holding since mid-October 2018. Investors use this as a long term buy entry within this nearly 2 year 1M Descending Triangle pattern.
The 1D chart may be bearish (RSI = 37.141, MACD = -0.094, Highs/Lows = -0.0419, ADX = 42.106) but there is a certain feature (besides the 1M Support) that indicates the trend may be reversing. That is the RSI which is on a Bullish Divergence (i.e. on a bullish trend despite the fact that the actual price is bearish). Since 2018 whenever the 1D RSI was on a Bullish Divergence, USDMXN started an uptrend. We are using this opportunity to buy for the long term with 19.500 - 19.650 as our Target Zone.
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Bullish Reversal on USDMXN (Positive RR of +2.27)USDMXN is coming out of a bullish reversal contraction which has found support at an important DC level 18.89460, only then can we focus on trading till the TP levels (green).
The main two resistances price action needs to break are 19.04180 and 19.12485.
TP #1 - 19.27560 ( pips 3299 / RR 2.27 ) our profit target
TP #2 - 19.36510 ( pips 4190 / RR 2.90 )
SL - 18.80055 ( pips 1450 )
ridethepig | BRLMXN 2020 Macro MapA timely update to my Latam charts as we approach year-end. The bullish BRL theme I have maintained all year long is starting to attract a lot of interest with the idiosyncratic pension reform. Macro data in Brazil is showing signs of finding a floor and BCB have confirmed the end of the easing cycle:
Those with more conservative hands looking to ride this for the long term can comfortably lean on BRL with carry exposure now capped. MXN is showing no signs of improvement and remains as uncertain as ever, whenever I talk to clients on the topic they speak of concerns around Mexico risk and the dovish Banxico weighing on the MXN carry.
If you ask me we are going to see a major flop in policy from Banxico and with Brazil set to recover on all fronts it remains a strategic long in all my LATAM portfolios. This is not a quick 50-100 pip trade where we are shooting blanks hoping one lands, rather this is trading a major macro flow with +11% upside.
Highly recommend all to find a way to find a way to benefit from these flows, the only downside is coming from growth momentum in Brazil fading (unlikely) and overshoots in Mexico (also highly unlikely).
Good luck those on the buy side.
USDMXN: Optimal long term Buy Opportunity.The pair has been trading within a wide long term 1M Triangle since late 2016 that is getting narrower and narrower (RSI = 49.430, CCI = -26.4209, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) as it approaches its completion.
In the recent weeks it has been pulling but towards the Higher Low Support zone and technically is now on the optimal long term buy level. A 2 year long RSI figure also suggests a buy near 40.000. We are taking this opportunity to go long with TP = 19.85000.
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